Nevada's 4th congressional district elections, 2012
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| November 6, 2012 |
| June 12, 2012 |
Steven Horsford  |
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Steven Horsford (D) won election to the newly created 4th district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. He defeated three challengers with 50% of the vote.[1]
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Primary: Nevada has a closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 12. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6.[2]
- See also: Nevada elections, 2012
Incumbent: The 4th district was created following the 2010 Census.
This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Nevada's 4th congressional district was located in the central portion of the state and includes the counties of White Pine, Nye, Mineral, Esmeralda, and Lincoln. It also included southern Lyon County and northern Clark County.[3]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
June 12, 2012 primary results
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Election Results
General Election
| U.S. House, Nevada, District 4 General Election, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic |  Steven Horsford |
50.1% | 120,501 | |
| Republican | Danny Tarkanian | 42.1% | 101,261 | |
| Libertarian | Joseph P. Silvestri | 3.9% | 9,341 | |
| Independent American Party of Nevada | Floyd Fitzgibbons | 3.9% | 9,389 | |
| Total Votes | 240,492 | |||
| Source: Nevada Secretary of State "U.S. House of Representatives Results" | ||||
Primary Results
The Primary was held on June 12.[7]
| Nevada's 4th Congressional District Republican Primary, 2012 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
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Danny Tarkanian |
31.5% | 7,605 |
| Barbara Cegavske | 27.7% | 6,674 |
| Kenneth Wegner | 21% | 5,069 |
| Dan Schwartz | 11.3% | 2,728 |
| Kiran Hill | 2.8% | 666 |
| Diana Anderson | 2.5% | 607 |
| Mike Delarosa | 1.5% | 370 |
| Sid Zeller | 1% | 252 |
| Robert X. Leeds | 0.7% | 165 |
| Total Votes | 24,136 | |
Race background
Competitiveness
Nevada's 4th is considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Democrat Steven Horsford will compete with Danny Tarkanian (R) in a district where roughly 55% of registered voters are Democrats. Tarkanian said he hope to win by mobilizing more conservative rural voters.[8]
Republican challenger Danny Tarkanian has been included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlights challengers who represent the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[9]
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for Nevada's 4th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." [10]
| List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:[11] | |||
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The Las Vegas Sun reports that in early October, the FDIC began seizing property in Nevada belonging to the Tarkanian family. The land was collateral for a real estate investment in California that fell through during the economic crisis. Since the land had greater value in 2007 than it does now, the Tarkanians owe some 17 million dollars on the deal. Candidate Danny Tarkanian insists that the family will settle this matter in court, and that they will not need to file bankruptcy.[12]
The Tarkanian debt has become an issue in Steven Horsford's campaign against Danny Tarkanian in the new 4th congressional district. The Sun reports that after the debt development,Tarkanian attacked Horsford's personal financial record, claiming that he repeatedly failed to pay his bills as a young man. Tarkanian insisted that his family's struggles are a direct result of the huge financial downturn of 2008.[13]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in Nevada
Nevada gained a congressional seat following the 2010 Census, bringing its total representatives to four. After the 2011 redistricting, the newly created 4th district covers the middle segment of Nevada.
Registration statistics
As of October 25, 2012, District 4 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Nevada Secretary of State:
| Nevada Congressional District 4[14] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 4 | 262,652 | 116,309 | 91,114 | 55,229 | Democratic | 27.65% | 0% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Nevada's 4th District was newly created during of redistricting.[15]
- 2012: 54D / 46R
- 2010: N/A
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Nevada's 4th congressional district has a PVI of D+2, which is the 171st most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 58-42 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 50-50 percent (rounded without decimals is equal, but Bush had more votes by slim margins) over John Kerry (D).[16]
Polls
| Danny Tarkanian vs. Steven Horsford | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | SurveyUSA (September 20, 2012) | Survery USA (October 26-28, 2012) | Average | |||||||||||
| Danny Tarkanian | 45% | 47% | 46% | |||||||||||
| Steven Horsford | 42% | 42% | 42% | |||||||||||
| Other | 6% | 6% | 6% | |||||||||||
| Undecided | 8% | 5% | 6.5% | |||||||||||
| Number polled | 646 | 648 | 647 | |||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-3.9 | +/-3.9% | 3.9% | |||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
Campaign donors
Steven Horsford
| Steven Horsford (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[17] | March 31, 2012 | $304,401.58 | $264,905.61 | $(105,172.71) | $464,134.48 | ||||
| Pre-primary[18] | May 31 | $464,134.48 | $142,287.10 | $(99,143.67) | $507,277.91 | ||||
| July Quarterly[19] | July 15 | $507,277.91 | $126,926.76 | $(43,035.07) | $591,169.60 | ||||
| October Quarterly[20] | October 15 | $591,169.60 | $391,185.85 | $(734,098.79) | $248,256.66 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $925,305.32 | $(981,450.24) | ||||||||
Danny Tarkanian
| Danny Tarkanian(2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[21] | March 31, 2012 | $23,858.49 | $347,937.59 | $(75,335.8) | $296,460.28 | ||||
| Pre-primary[22] | May 31 | $296,460.28 | $36,950.08 | $(269,590.54) | $63,819.82 | ||||
| July Quarterly[23] | July 15 | $63,951.52 | $404,195.89 | $(296,853.02) | $171,294.39 | ||||
| October Quarterly[24] | October 15 | $171,294.39 | $414,092.85 | $(197,026.44) | $388,360.80 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $1,203,176.41 | $(838,805.8) | ||||||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
- United States Senate elections in Nevada, 2012
References
- ↑ Politico "2012 Election Map, Nevada"
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State "Important Election Dates," Accessed July 26, 2012
- ↑ Nevada Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Las Vegas Review-Journal "GOP's Cegavske joins battle for 4th Congressional seat," Accessed December 16, 2011
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Pahrump Valley Times "Schwartz, Wegner join four-way GOP race for Congress" Accessed February 4, 2012
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 Nevada Secretary of State "2012 Filed Candidates" March 17, 2012
- ↑ http://www.nvsos.gov/SilverState2012pri/congressional.aspx#AllRace1011
- ↑ New York Times "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 10, 2012
- ↑ NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
- ↑ Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun "FDIC sets out to seize Tarkanian family’s Nevada assets" Accessed October 18, 2012
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun "Horsford-Tarkanian bout for Congress dominated by debt issues " Accessed October 18, 2012
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," May 18, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Nevada," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steven Horsford April Quarterly," Accessed July 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steven Horsford Pre-primary," Accessed October 17, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steven Horsford July Quarterly," Accessed October 17, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steven Horsford October Quarterly," Accessed October 17, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Danny Tarkanian April Quarterly," Accessed July 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Danny Tarkanian Pre-primary," Accessed October 17, 2012
- ↑ /12971458888.pdf#navpanes=0 Federal Election Commission "Danny Tarkanian July Quarterly," Accessed October 17, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Danny Tarkanian July Quarterly," Accessed October 17, 2012
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