Nevada's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

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2012

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Nevada's 4th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
June 10, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Cresent Hardy Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Steven Horsford Democratic Party
Steven Horsford.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely D[1]

FairVote's Monopoly Politics: Lean D[2]
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely D[3]


Nevada U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Nevada.png
The 4th Congressional District of Nevada held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Cresent Hardy (R) defeated incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford (D), Steve Brown (L) and Russell Best (Independent American) in the general election.

Although Nevada's 4th District was thought to lean Democratic, Nevada state Rep. Hardy defeated incumbent Rep. Horsford in a surprising upset that switched the partisan control of the district from Democratic to Republican. In Hardy's victory speech, he stated, "We did what nobody thought could be done."[4] He won by 2.7 percent of the vote.

Heading into the election, The Cook Political Report, FairVote's Monopoly Politics and Sabato's Crystal Ball all predicted that the general election would favor the Democratic candidate.[5][6][7] Nevada's 4th District was created during the redistricting process after the 2010 census, and in 2012, Horsford became the district's first U.S. representative. He defeated Republican Danny Tarkanian by an 8.0 percent margin of victory. Although one election did not set much of a precedent on which to base predictions, Horsford appeared to have a large advantage in his bid for re-election until just weeks before the general. According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Horsford raised nearly five times as much money as Hardy raised in campaign contributions throughout the 2014 election cycle. Horsford received $1,427,231.61, while Hardy received only $294,515.88.[8]

One key factor in Hardy's success was outside spending. On October 21, 2014, Crossroads GPS, a conservative group co-founded by Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie, announced that it would spend $820,000 on ads supporting Hardy and opposing Horsford.[9][10] Overall, the group ended up spending $1,072,596 on the race.[11]

In addition, 2014 was a particularly favorable year for Hardy's party, as Republicans across the nation experienced what some called a "GOP wave," increasing their majority in the U.S. House and gaining the majority in the Senate.[12] Many attributed this trend to midterm dissatisfaction and overall low approval ratings of President Barack Obama (D).[13]

Hardy took full advantage of Obama's unpopularity in Nevada, utilizing a unique campaign strategy to attack Horsford. On October 30, 2014, Horsford released an ad in which President Obama praised him for his work on the economy, announcing, "Michelle and I support Steven Horsford and we’re asking you to vote for him this Tuesday."[14] Rather than creating his own ad as a comeback, Hardy paid to have Horsford's ad played on radio stations in rural areas that tended to dislike Obama. The only change made to the ad was Hardy's voice approving the message at the end.

Voter turnout also played an important role in the election. According to the Nevada Secretary of State, Democrats registered to vote in the district far outnumbered registered Republicans, roughly 130,000 to 97,000. Midterm elections tend to have lower voter turnout, but 2014 was an exceptionally bad year, with 50 percent less voters showing up at the polls as compared to 2012.[15]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 14, 2014
June 10, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: Nevada is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[16][17][18]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by May 10, 2014. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 14, 2014.[19]

See also: Nevada elections, 2014

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Steven Horsford (D), who was first elected in 2012.

Nevada's 4th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes the counties of White Pine, Nye, Mineral, Esmeralda and Lincoln. It also includes southern Lyon County and northern Clark County.[20]

Candidates

General election candidates


June 10, 2014, primary results

Republican Party Republican Primary

Democratic Party Democratic Primary


Election results

General election

U.S. House, Nevada District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Steven Horsford Incumbent 45.8% 59,844
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCresent Hardy 48.5% 63,466
     Libertarian Steve Brown 3.1% 4,119
     Independent American Russell Best 2.6% 3,352
Total Votes 130,781
Source: Nevada Secretary of State

Primary election

U.S. House, Nevada District 4 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngCresent Hardy 42.6% 10,398
Niger Innis 33.1% 8,077
Mike Monroe 22.1% 5,393
Carlo Poliak 2.1% 523
Total Votes 24,391
Source: Nevada Secretary of State - Official Election Results
U.S. House, Nevada District 4 Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSteven Horsford Incumbent 84.3% 16,269
Mark Budetich 7.9% 1,532
Sid Zeller 7.8% 1,498
Total Votes 19,299
Source: Nevada Secretary of State - Official Election Results

Race background

Primary election background

In the primary election on June 10, 2014, Horsford easily defeated his two opponents for the Democratic nomination. Meanwhile, Hardy faced three other Republican candidates, including Niger Innis, who presented the toughest challenge. Innis did not concede right away, as he believed that voter fraud may have been involved.[21]

Endorsements

The National Republican Congressional Committee added Cresent Hardy (R) to their "On the Radar" list. According to the NRCC, candidates that made this list were set to receive "...the tools they need to run successful, winning campaigns against their Democratic opponents."[22][23]

Media

Cresent Hardy

The New America PAC NV released an ad in May 2014 criticizing Cresent Hardy for voting for Obamacare and for not being a true conservative.[24]


New America PAC ad attacking Hardy

Campaign contributions

Steven Horsford

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Horsford's reports.[25]

Steven Horsford (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[26]April 15, 2013$13,781.31$173,550.14$(155,709.05)$31,622.40
July Quarterly[27]July 15, 2013$31,622.40$131,859.10$(142,259.97)$21,221.53
October Quarterly[28]October 15, 2013$21,221.53$171,922.31$(75,461.70)$117,682.14
Year-End Quarterly[29]January 31, 2013$117,682.14$145,610.74$(95,351.30)$167,941.58
April Quarterly[30]April 15, 2014$167,941.58$220,331.76$(100,956.19)$287,317.15
Pre-Primary[31]May 29, 2014$287,317.15$94,587.64$(102,185.43)$279,719.36
July Quarterly[32]July 15, 2014$279,719.36$170,375.94$(45,591.36)$404,503.94
October Quarterly[33]October 15, 2014$404,503.94$274,207.07$(236,321.29)$442,389.72
Pre-General[34]October 23, 2014$442,389.72$44,786.91$(297,269.56)$189,907.07
Running totals
$1,427,231.61$(1,251,105.85)

Cresent Hardy

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Hardy's reports.[35]

Cresent Hardy (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[36]January 31, 2014$0.00$123,736.20$(18,073.83)$105,662.37
April Quarterly[37]April 15, 2014$105,662.37$45,658.72$(48,930.41)$102,390.68
Pre-Primary[38]May 29, 2014$102,390.68$20,865.00$(68,424.89)$54,830.79
July Quarterly[39]July 15, 2014$54,830.79$4,446.36$(26,278.59)$32,998.56
October Quarterly[40]October 15, 2014$32,998.56$91,609.60$(86,483.29)$38,124.87
Pre-General[41]October 23, 2014$38,124.87$8,200.00$(18,220.67)$28,104.20
Running totals
$294,515.88$(266,411.68)

Niger Innis

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Innis' reports.[42]

Niger Innis (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[43]April 15, 2014$0.00$170,738.16$(73,158.24)$97,579.92
Running totals
$170,738.16$(73,158.24)

District history

Candidate ballot accecss
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2012

The 4th Congressional District of Nevada held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012, in which Steven Horsford (D) won. He defeated Danny Tarkanian (R), Joseph P. Silvestri (L) and Floyd Fitzgibbons (Independent American).[44] The primary was held on June 12.[45]

U.S. House, Nevada District 4 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngSteven Horsford 50.1% 120,501
     Republican Danny Tarkanian 42.1% 101,261
     Libertarian Joseph P. Silvestri 3.9% 9,341
     Independent American Party of Nevada Floyd Fitzgibbons 3.9% 9,389
Total Votes 240,492
Source: Nevada Secretary of State "U.S. House of Representatives Results"

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for August 8, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. FairVote's Monopoly Politics, "2014 House Projections," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  4. Las Vegas Sun, "Cresent Hardy closes out surprising win over Rep. Steven Horsford," accessed November 13, 2014
  5. Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for July 26, 2014," accessed July 31, 2014
  6. FairVote's Monopoly Politics, "2014 House Projections," accessed November 19, 2014
  7. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 31, 2014
  8. OpenSecrets, "Nevada District 04 Race, Summary Data," accessed November 25, 2014
  9. Las Vegas Review Journal, "Sensing an upset, conservative group ups ante against Horsford," accessed November 25, 2014
  10. Las Vegas Sun, "Conservative PAC buying $820,000 of TV ads aimed at Horsford," accessed November 25, 2014
  11. OpenSecrets, "Nevada District 04 Race, Outside Spending," accessed November 25, 2014
  12. The Washington Post, "Yes, this was a GOP wave election," accessed November 20, 2014
  13. New York Daily News, "Republicans ride wave of anger against Obama to recapture Senate," accessed November 20, 2014
  14. The Washington Post, "Why a Nevada congressional candidate is paying for his opponent’s advertising," accessed November 25, 2014
  15. Las Vegas Sun, "Four reasons Cresent Hardy upset Rep. Steven Horsford," accessed November 25, 2014
  16. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  17. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  18. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  19. Long Distance Voter, "Voter Registration Rules," accessed January 3, 2014
  20. Nevada Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  21. Greenfield Daily Reporter, "Niger Innis concedes congressional primary race to Cresent Hardy, abandons recount effort," accessed July 3, 2014
  22. Roll Call, "House Republicans Put 36 Recruits ‘On the Radar’," accessed November 21, 2013
  23. NRCC Young Guns, "List," accessed March 20, 2014
  24. YouTube, "Cresent Hardy - Not A Conservative!," accessed May 16, 2014
  25. Federal Election Commission, "Horsford 2014 Summary reports," accessed July 22, 2013
  26. FEC, "Steven Horsford April Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
  27. FEC, "Steven Horsford July Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
  28. FEC, "Steven Horsford October Quarterly," accessed October 25, 2013
  29. FEC, "Steven Horsford Year-End Quarterly," accessed November 25, 2014
  30. FEC, "Steven Horsford April Quarterly," accessed May 16, 2014
  31. FEC, "Steven Horsford Pre-Primary," accessed October 23, 2014
  32. FEC, "Steven Horsford July Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
  33. FEC, "Steven Horsford October Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
  34. FEC, "Steven Horsford Pre-General," accessed November 25, 2014
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Cresent Hardy Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Cresent Hardy Year-End," accessed April 30, 2014
  37. Federal Election Commission, "Cresent Hardy April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  38. Federal Election Commission, "Cresent Hardy Pre-Primary," accessed November 4, 2014
  39. Federal Election Commission, "Cresent Hardy July Quarterly," accessed November 4, 2014
  40. Federal Election Commission, "Cresent Hardy October Quarterly," accessed November 4, 2014
  41. Federal Election Commission, "Cresent Hardy Pre-General," accessed November 4, 2014
  42. Federal Election Commission, "Niger Innis Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
  43. Federal Election Commission, "Niger Innis April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  44. Politico, "2012 Election Map, Nevada," accessed November 7, 2012
  45. Nevada Secretary of State, "2012 Congressional primary results," accessed May 5, 2014