New Hampshire's 1st congressional district elections, 2012
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| November 6, 2012 |
| September 11, 2012 |
Carol Shea-Porter  |
Frank Guinta  |
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Contents |
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
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Primary: New Hampshire has a mostly closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members. In New Hampshire, however, Independent voters may choose which party's primary to vote in.
Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by September 4, or at the polls on election day. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 27, or at the polls on election day.[2]
- See also: New Hampshire elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Frank Guinta (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010.
This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. New Hampshire's 1st congressional district is located in the eastern portion of the state.[3]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
September 11, 2012 primary results
Democratic Primary
- Carol Shea-Porter:
Former 1st district representative
- Carol Shea-Porter:
- Note: Joanne Dowdell and Diane Soracco initially filed but no longer appear on the official candidate list.[4]
- Note: Andrew Hosmer expressed an interest in running but opted to run for the New Hampshire state Senate
Republican Primary
- Frank Guinta: Incumbent
- Vern Clough
- Rick Parent
- Frank Guinta:
Libertarian candidate
According to the website Daily Kos, this race was one of nine top-ballot 2012 races that contained Libertarian candidates who received more total votes than was the difference between the Democratic winner and the GOP runner-up. In this case, Brendan Kelly took in over 2,000 more votes than the number that separated Shea-Porter and Guinta.[5]
Election Results
| U.S. House, New Hampshire, District 1 General Election, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Frank Guinta Incumbent | 46% | 158,659 | |
| Democratic |  Carol Shea-Porter |
49.8% | 171,650 | |
| Libertarian | Brandan Kelly | 4.2% | 14,521 | |
| Total Votes | 344,830 | |||
| Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Race background
New Hampshire's 1st was considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Frank Guinta was defeated by Carol Shea-Porter (D), the former Democratic representative of the district whom he defeated in 2010. Guinta was thought to have the advantage in the race.[6]
Incumbent Frank Guinta was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.[7]
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for New Hampshire's 1st. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." [8]
| List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:[9] | |||
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Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in New Hampshire
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. New Hampshire's 1st District became less Republican because of redistricting.[10]
- 2012: 50D / 50R
- 2010: 49D / 51R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. New Hampshire's 1st congressional district has a PVI of Even, which is one of the nine even districts in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 53-47 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over John Kerry (D).[11]
District history
2010
On November 2, 2010, Frank Guinta was elected to the United States House. He defeated incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Philip Hodson (Libertarian).[12]
| United States House, New Hampshire General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Frank C. Guinta |
54% | 121,655 | |
| Democratic | Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent | 42.4% | 95,503 | |
| Libertarian | Philip Hodson | 3.5% | 7,966 | |
| Total Votes | 225,124 | |||
Polls
| Frank Guinta vs. Carol Shea-Porter | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (October 25-26, 2012) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Guinta | 48% | 48% | ||||||||||||
| Shea-Porter | 47% | 47% | ||||||||||||
| Other | 0% | 0% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 5% | 5% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 654 | 654 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-3.8 | 3.8% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
Campaign donors
The race attracted $1.9 million in outside spending after Labor Day. $917,394 was spent helping Democrat Carol Shea-Porter while $1,028,851 was spent to aid Republican Frank Guinta.[13]
Carol Shea-Porter
| Carol Shea-Porter (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[14] | March 31, 2012 | $142,496.32 | $101,328.11 | $(60,665.13) | $183,159.30 | ||||
| July Quarterly[15] | June 30, 2012 | $183,159.30 | $200,852.64 | $(71,553.82) | $312,458.12 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[16] | August 30 | $312,458.12 | $195,020.45 | $(84,769.40) | $422,709.17 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $497,201.2 | $(216,988.35) | ||||||||
Frank Guinta
| Frank Guinta (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[17] | March 31, 2012 | $565,273.22 | $180,332.96 | $(70,858.71) | $674,747.47 | ||||
| July Quarterly[18] | June 30, 2012 | $674,747.47 | $256,021.29 | $(84,577.83) | $846,190.93 | ||||
| Pre-primary[19] | August 30 | $846,190.93 | $137,529.99 | $(172,892.17) | $810,828.75 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $573,884.24 | $(328,328.71) | ||||||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
References
- ↑ Politico "2012 House Race Results"
- ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State "Voter Registration Deadlines," Accessed July 26, 2012
- ↑ New Hampshire Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ New Hampshire 2012 candidates
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Libertarians provided the margin for Democrats and at least nine elections," November 15, 2012
- ↑ New York Times "House Ratings," accessed October 23, 2012
- ↑ NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
- ↑ Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in New Hampshire," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
- ↑ The New York Times, "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Carol Shea-Porter April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Carol Shea-Porter July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Carol Shea-Porter Pre-Primary," Accessed October 8, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Frank Guinta April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Frank Guinta July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Frank Guinta Pre-primary," Accessed October 8, 2012
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