New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2010

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Breaking news

In the New Hampshire gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, incumbent Democrat John Lynch defeated Republican John Stephen and Libertarian John J. Babiarz. Lyncy's re-election to a fourth two-year term was unprecedented in New Hampshire.

In the September 14, 2010 primary elections, Lynch and Stephen both won easy primary victories. Lynch's biggest challenger was State Representative Timothy Robertson. Stephen faced Two-term state Representative Frank Robert Emiro, Sr. but ultimately his major opponent was Jack Kimball, Jr., a business owner and Tea Party activist.

November 2, 2010 general election results

New Hampshire, as they say, has America's first in the nation Presidential primary. It now has the first gubernatorial win of the night. Taking a historic first term, John Lynch has held onto his seat and become the first governor of the 2010 cycle to see his race called. As of November 5, 2010, results have been certified.[1] The window to request a recount has passed.[2]

2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial general election
Party Candidate Vote Percentage
     Democratic Party Approveda John Lynch 52.70%
     Republican Party John Stephen 44.97%
     Libertarian Party John J. Babiarz 2.21%
     Other write-in 0.12%
Total Votes 456,588

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Governor John Lynch began his fourth term on January 5, 2011.

Transition team

Going into his unprecedented fourth two-year term, Governor Lynch did not effect a full scale transition effort.

September 14, 2010 primary

2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary[3]
Candidates Percentage
John Lynch (D) 87.39%
Timothy Robertson (D) 6.65%
Frank Sullivan (D) 5.96%
Total votes 50,485
2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary[4]
Candidates Percentage
Frank Emiro (R) 3.82%
Jack Kimball (R) 27.27%
John Stephen (R) 67.81%
Karen Testerman (R) 10.98%
Total votes 111,029

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings New Hampshire
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[5] Lean Democrat
Congressional Quarterly Politics[6] Leans Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Leans Democrat
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[8] Lean Democratic
The Rothenberg Political Report[9] Lean Democrat
Overall Call Democratic

Changes

7. Rasmussen moved race from "Solid Democratic" to "Leans Democrat" on October 31st.

6. Cook Political Report moved races from "Toss-up" to "Lean Democrat" on October 29th.

5. CQ Politics moved race from "Likely Democratic" to "Leans Democratic" as of October 24th.

4. Rasmussen moved race from "Toss-up" back to "Solid Democratic" following October 10th poll.

3. Rothenberg moved race from "Democrat Favored" to "Lean Democrat" in October 1st ratings.

2. Cook Political Report moved race from "Solid Democratic" to "Toss-up" in September 30th ratings.

1. Rasmussen moves race from "Solid Democratic" to "Toss-up" on September 18th.

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who Made It? New Hampshire Governor[10]
Nominee Affiliation
John Lynch Democrat
John Stephen Republican
John J. Babiarz Libertarian
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who were officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Democratic

  • John H. Lynch, the incumbent, sought a fourth term. He previously worked as an executive in higher education as the President and CEO of Knoll, Inc.
  • Timothy Robertson, a state Representative from Keene, entered the race in mid-May.[11] He was, at the time, serving his 8th term in New Hampshire's house and also had experience owning auto dealerships and real estate business. Robertson's late entry to the race not only forced Lynch into a primary; Robertson's own positions on some key social issues put him far enough left that Lynch was, comparatively, a centrist - something which bound to affect the primary campaign dynamic.
  • One month after Robertson entered the race, retired Manchester high school teacher Francis "Frank" Sullivan declared candidacy. He centered his campaign on a pro-gambling platform.[12]

Republican

  • Two-term state Representative Frank Robert Emiro, Sr. worked extensively in transportation and in veteran's affairs. Himself a veteran of the Navy and the Army, he began his political career in his native New York serving as a staffer to the Republican Whip of the state assembly.
  • Business owner Jack Kimball, Jr. is active within the Tea Party and made his first foray into electoral politics with the 2010 campaign.
  • Attorney John Stephen served publicly as an Assistant Attorney General, appointed by U.S. Senator Judd Gregg (who was Governor at the time), as Assistant Commissioner of the Department of Safety, and later as Commissioner of Health and Human Services for New Hampshire. In private practice, he is a partner at The Lucas Group, Boston based consulting and strategy law firm, where he has advised governors of multiple states and Congressional members on various policy issues.
  • Karen Testerman is a founder of New Hampshire's Cornerstone Policy Institute and has long been active with family value oriented policy groups in addition to being a high school and college science teacher.

Libertarian

Declaring candidacy

Intended candidates submitted either a $100 filing fee or a minimum of 200 "primary petitions" to file an Official Declaration of Candidacy. This method of entering the race is a requirement for all Democratic and Republican candidates in order to participate in the primaries. The Declaration of Candidacy is different from the Declaration of Intent, and is required by the New Hampshire Secretary of State in order to place a candidate's name on the general election ballot.

Declarations of Intent to run for governor must be accompanied by either a $100 fee or a minimum of 3,000 "nominating papers." If the candidate chooses the latter option, she must gain 1,500 signatures from each of the state's two Congressional Districts. June 11th was the deadline for filing primary petitions and for nomination papers.[13]

New Hampshire allows voters to register and vote on Election Day for both the primary and the general election. However, the last day on which voters could change party affiliation prior to the primary was June 1, 2010. Additionally, there are blackouts periods prior to both elections to allow election workers to finalize rolls and prepare for balloting. These periods began on September 7th for the primary and on October 23rd for the general. Intended voters who miss these deadlines had to wait until the Election Day and register on site.[14]

Polling

General election polling

2010 Race for New Hampshire Governor - Public Policy Polling
Date Reported Stephens (R) Lynch (D) Other Don't Know
September 11-12, 2010[15] 39% 51% - 10%
(Sample) n=1,959 MoE=+/- 2.2% p=0.05
2010 Race for New Hampshire Governor - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Stephens (R) Lynch (D) Other Don't Know
October 27, 2010[16] 45% 51% 1% 3%
October 10, 2010[17] 43% 53% 1% 3%
September 15, 2010[18] 46% 48% 1% 4%
(Sample) n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05

Campaign spots


Republican Governor's Association' 'John Lynch: 'Nice Guy' ad.

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[19]
Candidates Percentage
Jean Shaheen (D) 66.08%
Jay Lucas (R) 30.88%
Ken Blevans (L) 1.73%
(write-in) 0.13%
Total votes 318,940
2002 Gubernatorial Results[20]
Candidates Percentage
Craig Benson (R) 58.62%
Mark Fernald (D) 38.21%
John Babiarz (L) 2.94%
Total votes 442,976
2006 Gubernatorial Results[21]
Candidates Percentage
John Lynch (D) 74.01%
Jim Coburn (R) 25.83%
Total votes 403,679




Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 48.07%
Al Gore (D) 46.80%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 48.87%
John Kerry (D) 50.24%
2008 Presidential Results[22]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 44.52%
Barack Obama (D) 54.13%


1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 37.69%
Bill Clinton (D) 38.91%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 39.37%
Bill Clinton (D) 49.32%

See also

External links

Candidate pages

References

  1. New Hampshire Secretary of State, "NEW HAMPSHIRE - GENERAL ELECTION, November 2, 2010: Governor," November 5, 2010
  2. New Hampshire Secretary of State, "NEW HAMPSHIRE - GENERAL ELECTION: Governor," updated November 5, 2010, accessed November 12, 2010
  3. Associated Press, “Election Night Results: New Hampshire - County Vote Results”, September 15, 2010
  4. Associated Press, “Election Night Results: New Hampshire - County Vote Results”, September 15, 2010
  5. The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  6. CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  7. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  8. Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  9. Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  10. New Hampshire Secretary of State, “State Primary Election, Election Results”, accessed September 19, 2010
  11. Manchester Democrat Examiner, "Lynch's challenger in NH: Who is he?," May 17, 2001
  12. Concord Monitor, "Gambling has friend running for governor," June 16, 2010
  13. New Hampshire Secretary of State Elections Division, "Filing for Office," accessed July 24, 2010 (dead link)
  14. New Hampshire Secretary of State Elections Division, "How to Register to Vote," accessed July 24, 2010 (dead link)
  15. Public Policy Polling, “Lynch Still Up By Double Digits Over Stephen”, September 16, 2010 (dead link)
  16. Rasmussen Reports, “New Hampshire Governor: Lynch (D) Retains Smaller Lead On Stephen (R)”, October 31, 2010
  17. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: New Hampshire Governor: Lynch (D) Earns Highest Support Yet Against Stephen (R)”, October 12, 2010
  18. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: New Hampshire Governor: Lynch (D) 48%, Stephen (R) 4”, September 18, 2010
  19. New Hampshire Secretary of State, “1998 General Election Results“
  20. New Hampshire Secretary of State, “2002 General Election Results“
  21. New Hampshire Secretary of State, “2006 General Election Results“
  22. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010