New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2014

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New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
September 9, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Maggie Hassan Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Maggie Hassan Democratic Party
Margaret Wood Hassan.jpg

New Hampshire State Executive Elections
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The New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) won re-election to another two-year term against Republican candidate Walter Havenstein.

New Hampshire is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party, unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.[1] The primary was held September 9, 2014.

The gubernatorial race was not the only race on the November ballot that could have shifted the balance of power in New Hampshire. The New Hampshire House of Representatives and New Hampshire State Senate were identified by Ballotpedia as two of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. The governor's office and both legislative chambers were not held by the same party after the election, preventing the state from becoming a state government trifecta. Learn more about the state's most competitive legislative races in 2014 on the battleground chambers page.

Candidates

General election

Democratic Party Maggie Hassan - Incumbent Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Walt Havenstein[2]

Lost in primary

Democratic Party Ian Freeman[3]
Democratic Party Clecia Terrio[3]
Republican Party Daniel Greene[3]
Republican Party Andrew Hemingway - former campaign manager for Newt Gingrich[4]
Republican Party Jonathan Smolin[3]

Did not file

Republican Party Brad Cook - attorney at Sheehan Phinney, secretary of the Business and Industry Association of New Hampshire[5]

Withdrawn candidates

Republican Party George Lambert - member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, representing Hillsborough 44[6][7]


Results

General election

Governor of New Hampshire, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMaggie Hassan Incumbent 52.5% 254,659
     Republican Walter Havenstein 47.3% 229,596
     Nonpartisan Scattering 0.2% 907
Total Votes 485,162
Election Results via New Hampshire Secretary of State.

Primary election

Democratic primary

Governor of New Hampshire, Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMaggie Hassan Incumbent 94.2% 39,185
Ian Freeman 4.1% 1,719
Clecia Terrio 1.7% 704
Total Votes 41,608
Election Results Via:New Hampshire Secretary of State.

Republican primary

Governor of New Hampshire, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngWalter Havenstein 55.7% 62,766
Andrew Hemingway 37.3% 42,005
Daniel Greene 4.8% 5,362
Jonathan Smolin 2.3% 2,620
Total Votes 112,753
Election Results Via:New Hampshire Secretary of State.

Debates

August 12 Republican debate

Republican candidates Walter Havenstein, Andrew Hemingway and Jonathan Smolin debated economic policy and casino gambling at Franklin Pierce University. Havenstein argued for a reduced tax on business profits and budget cuts that he claimed would produce 25,000 jobs by 2017. Hemingway proposed a flat income tax rate, a decreased corporate tax rate and reducing regulations to strengthen businesses. Smolin suggested that the state could reduce or eliminate college tuition to keep young workers in New Hampshire.[8]

The three primary opponents disagreed on the prospect of casino gambling in the state. Havenstein argued against casinos on the grounds that they wouldn't significantly improve the economy. Hemingway was more amenable to casinos, suggesting that current groups that run charity gambling operations could oversee new casinos. Smolin voiced support for a small number of casinos to provide a boost to New Hampshire's economy.[8]

All three candidates found consensus in their opposition to the Affordable Care Act and support for school choice in New Hampshire public schools.[8]

Polls

General election

General election - Major party candidates and "other" category
Poll Maggie Hassan Walter HavensteinOtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
New England College
September 19-20, 2014
52%39.6%3.8%4.6%+/-2.541,494
University of New Hampshire
September 29-October 5, 2014
46%36%2%16%+/-3.8532
New England College
October 3, 2014
51.4%41.3%3%4.4%+/-2.731,286
New England College
October 9, 2014
48.7%43.5%2.7%5.1%+/-2.981,081
CNN/ORC
October 18-21, 2014
51%45%0%4%+/-31,023
American Research Group Inc.
October 19-22, 2014
53%43%0%4%+/-4600
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014
47%38%1%13%+/-41,042
New England College
October 24, 2014
47.2%46.9%2.2%3.7%+/-2.911,132
AVERAGES 49.54% 41.66% 1.84% 6.85% +/-3.25 1,023.75
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
General election - Hassan v. Havenstein
Poll Maggie Hassan Walter HavensteinUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports
September 10-11, 2014
51%40%9%+/-4750
American Research Group, Inc.
September 12-15, 2014
48%40%12%+/-4.2544
American Research Group, Inc.
September 27-29, 2014
55%40%5%+/-4600
WMUR
October 22-26, 2014
52%37%11%+/-4.2555
American Research Group
October 27-29, 2014
48%46%6%+/-4600
AVERAGES 50.8% 40.6% 8.6% +/-4.08 609.8
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Primary election and hypothetical match-ups

Hypothetical Match-up Poll Hassan vs. Republican candidates
Poll Maggie Hassan Daniel GreeneWalt HavensteinAndrew HemingwayJonathan SmolinMax AbramsonUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Suffolk University
June 14-18, 2014
53%13%0%0%0%3%30%+/--800
Suffolk University
June 14-18, 2014
51%0%19%0%0%3%28%+/--800
Suffolk University
June 14-18, 2014
51%0%0%17%0%3%29%+/--800
Suffolk University
June 14-18, 2014
52%0%0%0%15%3%31%+/--800
AVERAGES 51.75% 3.25% 4.75% 4.25% 3.75% 3% 29.5% +/-0 800
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Due to the nature of the match-up poll. A value of 0 was given to candidates not included in that round.

Republican gubernatorial primary
Poll Daniel Greene Walt HavensteinAndrew HemingwayJonathan SmolinUndecidedRefusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Suffolk University
June 14-18, 2014
4%13%7%2%72%3%+/--419
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.



Campaign media

Maggie Hassan


Maggie Hassan ad: Problem Solver

Walt Havenstein


Walt Havenstein ad: Second Term

Outside organizations

National Rifle Association


NRA ad: Defend Freedom in New Hampshire, Defeat Maggie Hassan

Republican Governors Association


RGA ad: Too Little

Past elections

2012

Governor of New Hampshire General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMaggie Hassan 54.7% 378,934
     Republican Ovide Lamontagne 42.6% 295,026
     Libertarian John J. Babiarz 2.8% 19,251
Total Votes 693,211
Election Results via New Hampshire Secretary of State.


2010

Governor of New Hampshire, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn H. Lynch Incumbent 52.6% 240,346
     Republican John Stephen 45% 205,616
     Libertarian John J. Babiarz 2.2% 10,089
     Nonpartisan Scattering 0.1% 537
Total Votes 456,588

Voter turnout

Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 82,596,338 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, representing 36.4 percent of the VEP.[9] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[10]

Quick facts

  • According to PBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[11]
  • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia failed to surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
  • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis were Indiana (28 percent), Texas (28.5 percent) and Utah (28.8 percent).
  • Maine (59.3 percent), Wisconsin (56.9 percent) and Alaska (55.3 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
  • There were only 12 states that increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[12]
Voter turnout rates, 2014
State Total votes for top office  % voter eligible population Top statewide office up for election Size of lead (Raw votes) Size of lead (%)
Alabama 1,200,000 33.5 Governor 320,319 27.2
Alaska 290,000 55.3 Governor 4,004 1.6
Arizona 1,550,000 34.4 Governor 143,951 12.5
Arkansas 875,000 41.2 Governor 118,664 14
California 7,750,000 31.8 Governor 1,065,748 17.8
Colorado 2,025,000 53.0 Governor 50,395 2.4
Connecticut 1,089,880 42.3 Governor 26,603 2.5
Delaware 234,038 34.4 Attorney general 31,155 13.6
District of Columbia 150,000 30.3 Mayor 27,934 19
Florida 5,951,561 42.7 Governor 66,127 1.1
Georgia 2,575,000 38.2 Governor 202,685 8
Hawaii 366,125 36.2 Governor 45,323 12.4
Idaho 440,000 39.1 Governor 65,852 14.9
Illinois 3,550,000 39.5 Governor 171,900 4.9
Indiana 1,350,000 28.0 Secretary of state 234,978 17.8
Iowa 1,150,000 50.6 Governor 245,548 21.8
Kansas 875,000 42.8 Governor 33,052 3.9
Kentucky 1,440,000 44.2 U.S. Senate 222,096 15.5
Louisiana 1,472,039 43.8 U.S. Senate 16,401 1.1
Maine 625,000 59.3 Governor 29,820 4.9
Maryland 1,750,000 41.9 Governor 88,648 6.1
Massachusetts 2,150,000 43.9 Governor 40,361 1.9
Michigan 3,151,835 42.7 Governor 129,547 4.3
Minnesota 2,025,000 51.3 Governor 109,776 5.6
Mississippi 650,000 29.7 U.S. Senate 141,234 33
Missouri 1,450,000 32.3 Auditor 684,074 53.6
Montana 365,000 46.1 U.S. Senate 65,262 17.9
Nebraska 550,000 41.3 Governor 97,678 18.7
Nevada 600,000 31.8 Governor 255,793 46.7
New Hampshire 500,000 48.8 Governor 24,924 5.2
New Jersey 1,825,000 30.4 N/A N/A N/A
New Mexico 550,000 38.3 Governor 73,868 14.6
New York 3,900,000 28.8 Governor 476,252 13.4
North Carolina 2,900,000 40.7 U.S. Senate 48,511 1.7
North Dakota 248,670 43.8 U.S. House At-large seat 42,214 17.1
Ohio 3,150,000 36.2 Governor 933,235 30.9
Oklahoma 825,000 29.8 Governor 122,060 14.7
Oregon 1,500,000 52 Governor 59,029 4.5
Pennsylvania 3,500,000 36.1 Governor 339,261 9.8
Rhode Island 325,000 41.7 Governor 14,346 4.5
South Carolina 1,246,301 34.8 Governor 179,089 14.6
South Dakota 279,412 44.5 Governor 124,865 45.1
Tennessee 1,400,000 29.1 Governor 642,214 47.5
Texas 4,750,000 28.5 Governor 957,973 20.4
Utah 550,000 28.8 Attorney general 173,819 35.2
Vermont 193,087 38.8 Governor 2,095 1.1
Virginia 2,200,000 36.7 U.S. Senate 16,727 0.8
Washington 2,050,000 41.6 N/A N/A N/A
West Virginia 460,000 31.8 U.S. Senate 124,667 27.6
Wisconsin 2,425,000 56.9 Governor 137,607 5.7
Wyoming 168,390 38.7 Governor 52,703 33.6
United States 82,596,338 36.4

Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on November 19, 2014. The results in this table draw from unofficial results as of November 12, 2014.

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
June 13, 2014 Filing deadline
September 9, 2014 Primary election
November 4, 2014 General election
January 7, 2015 Inauguration day for state executive officials

Ballotpedia reports

To learn more about developments in this race, check out the following news articles from Ballotpedia:

Recent news

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New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election News Feed

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See also

External links

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References