New polling data predicts Republicans to gain 623 state legislative seats in election
| Partisan dominance in state legislatures|
heading into the 2010 state legislative elections
The report was completed by The O'Leary Report, which is a polling service run by Brad O'Leary.
Besides just the overall gain of seats, the analysts predicted the following senates would swing Republican.
Seven state houses are considered in play to change hands from Democrat to Republican.
Over the past three state legislative even-year elections, Democrats have won more seats than Republicans.
- 2008: Democrats gained a net 63 state legislative seats
- 2006: Democrats gained 322 state legislative seats
- 2004: Democrats gained a net 76 state legislative seats.
The current breakdown of state senators and state representatives is as follows:
|Democratic state senators||1,021||51.8%|
|Republican state senators||895||45.4%|
|Nonpartisan state senators||49||2.5%|
|Independent state senators||3|
|Democratic state representatives||3,015||55.9%|
|Republican state representatives||2,354||43.7%|
|Independent state representatives||21|
Based on the current totals, if Republicans won 623 seats the Democrats would still hold a 164-seat edge in overall representation.
According to Ballotpedia research, Republicans face an uphill climb in state legislative races because of term limits. There are 190 Republicans termed out and 182 Democrats. There are also three nonpartisan legislators termed out.
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010
- State legislative elections, 2010
- Incumbents defeated in 2010's state legislative elections
- Challengers who defeated incumbents in 2010's state legislative elections