New polling data predicts Republicans to gain 623 state legislative seats in election

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September 29, 2010

According to a recent analysis of the 46 legislative elections, Republicans are expected to pick up 623 seats from Democrats.[1]

Partisan dominance in state legislatures
heading into the 2010 state legislative elections
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The report was completed by The O'Leary Report, which is a polling service run by Brad O'Leary.

Besides just the overall gain of seats, the analysts predicted the following senates would swing Republican.

Seven state houses are considered in play to change hands from Democrat to Republican.

Over the past three state legislative even-year elections, Democrats have won more seats than Republicans.

  • 2008: Democrats gained a net 63 state legislative seats
  • 2006: Democrats gained 322 state legislative seats
  • 2004: Democrats gained a net 76 state legislative seats.[2]

The current breakdown of state senators and state representatives is as follows:

State senators

Party Number of Percentage
Democratic state senators 1,021 51.8%
Republican state senators 895 45.4%
Non-partisan state senators 49 2.5%
Independent state senators 3
Vacancies 7

State representatives

Party Number of Percentage
Democratic state representatives 3,015 55.9%
Republican state representatives 2,354 43.7%
Independent state representatives 21
Vacancies 23

Based on the current totals, if Republicans won 623 seats the Democrats would still hold a 164-seat edge in overall representation.

According to Ballotpedia research, Republicans face an uphill climb in state legislative races because of term limits. There are 190 Republicans termed out and 182 Democrats. There are also three nonpartisan legislators termed out.

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