Paul Davis, Kansas Representative

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Paul Davis
PaulDavis.jpg
Kansas House of Representatives District 46
Incumbent
In office
2003 - Present
Term ends
January 12, 2015
Years in position 11
PartyDemocratic
Leadership
House Minority Leader
Compensation
Base salary$88.66/day
Per diem$129/day
Elections and appointments
Last electionNovember 6, 2012
First elected2002
Term limitsN/A
Education
Bachelor'sUniversity of Kansas, 1995
J.D.Washburn University School of Law, 1997
Personal
BirthdayJuly 12, 1972
Place of birthWoodland, California
ProfessionAttorney
ReligionUnited Church of Christ
Websites
Office website
Campaign website
CandidateVerification
Paul Davis is a Democratic member of the Kansas House of Representatives, representing District 46 and serving as Minority Leader. He was first elected to the chamber in 2002.

Davis ran unsuccessfully for Governor of Kansas in the 2014 elections. He formally launched his campaign on September 18, 2013.[1] Davis was unopposed for the Democratic nomination in the August 5 primary, setting up a hotly contested general election battle against beleaguered Republican incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback. Davis selected Jill Docking as his running mate on October 22, 2013.[1] Paul Davis, Kansas Representative lost the general election on November 4, 2014.

Biography

Davis earned his B.A. from the University of Kansas and his J.D. from Washburn University. His professional experience includes working as an attorney for the firm of Fagan, Emert & Davis, for the Legislative and Ethics Counsel of the Kansas Bar Association and as Assistant Director of Government Affairs, Kansas Insurance Department.[2]

Committee assignments

2013-2014

At the beginning of the 2013 legislative session, Davis served on the following committees:

Kansas Committee Assignments, 2012
Legislative Budget

2011-2012

In the 2011-2012 legislative session, Davis served on the following committees:

2009-2010

In the 2009-2010 legislative session, Davis served on the following committees:

Issues

  • H 2218 Healthy workplace act; abusive workplace environments. 02/04/2009
  • H 5003 Kansas constitutional amendment; equal rights; no discrimination based on sex. 01/23/2009
  • H 5007 Joint session for hearing message of supreme court. 02/13/2009
  • H 5014 Expanded rail service; Kansas City to Fort Worth, Texas; congratulating Kansas Department of Transportation and others; urging action. 03/17/2009[3]

Elections

2014

See also: Kansas gubernatorial election, 2014

Davis ran on the Democratic ticket for Governor of Kansas in 2014. Davis and lieutenant gubernatorial running mate Jill Docking were unopposed for the Democratic nomination in the August 5 primary, and lost to the Republican ticket of incumbents Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer in the general election. The Libertarian father-and-son ticket of Keen Umbehr and Josh Umbehr were also on the ballot. The general election took place November 4, 2014.[1][4][5]

Results

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Kansas, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSam Brownback/Jeff Colyer Incumbent 50% 423,666
     Democratic Paul Davis/Jill Docking 46.1% 390,614
     Libertarian Keen Umbehr/Josh Umbehr 4% 33,708
Total Votes 847,988
Election Results via The New York Times. Vote totals above are unofficial and reflect 100% precincts reporting.

Race background

Candidate filing period

On June 2, the filing window for Republican and Democratic candidates pursuing a place on the 2014 Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial ballot came to a close. One set of Republicans - led by landscape contractor Jennifer Winn - filed to take on the incumbent duo in the August 5 primary election. Meanwhile, Paul Davis, the state House Minority Leader, along with his running mate Jill Docking, were the only Democratic pair to enter the race, earning a free pass to the general election. Also joining the November lineup in advance of the primary election were Libertarian candidates Keen and Josh Umbehr. The father and son ticket knocked out a single set of opponents for their party's nomination at the Kansas Libertarian Party convention, which took place April 26, 2014.[6][7]

Highly competitive race

This contest was considered to be highly competitive, with match-up polls and race ratings dating back to the fall of 2013 underscoring the legitimacy of Davis' threat. One of the first publications to declare Brownback's vulnerability was The Washington Post, which named Kansas as one of its top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014, citing Brownback's poor approval ratings, "well shy of 50 percent."[8] Indeed, Brownback's approval ratings had been hovering around 35 percent since January 2012.[9]

Kansas was one of nine gubernatorial seats to be flagged as a "toss-up" or vulnerable for partisan switch in the 2014 cycle, based on polling data and projections courtesy of The Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Governing, among others.[10][11][12]

Republican endorsements for Davis

By July 2014, Brownback's troubles crested when over 100 influential Republicans defected to the Davis campaign. The self-styled "Republicans for Kansas Values," comprised of GOP retirees and current officeholders, explained the unorthodox endorsement of Brownback's Democratic challenger as a response to steep cuts to education funding and tax cuts that contributed to a $340 million budget shortfall during the 2014 fiscal year.[13] Rather than make it a partisan matter, the race "must be about electing a moderate, commonsense Kansan as governor," stated ex-state Senate president Dick Bond on behalf of the group.[14] Polling in July also indicated that 29 percent of Republicans would vote for Davis, which marked a five-point increase from the previous month. These polls, conducted by Survey USA/KSN News, also showed Brownback losing by an average of seven points. In contrast, YouGov poll in July that showed a 10-point lead for Brownback. Polling experts and representatives of each campaign commented on how divergent polling methodologies can yield seemingly irreconcilable results. In this case, such disparities caused a rise in skepticism about the reliability of polling data in the final approach to the November general election, which Brownback ultimately won.[15]

Polls

Governor of Kansas - All candidates
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)Keen Umbehr(L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
June 19-23, 2014
41%47%5%7%+/-3.11,068
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
July 23, 2014
40%48%5%7%+/-2.91,208
Public Policy Polling
August 14-17, 2014
37%39%9%15%+/-3.3903
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
September 4-7, 2014
40%47%5%7%+/-4.2555
Public Policy Polling
September 11-14, 2014
38%42%7%14%+/-2.71,328
Fort Hays State University
September 10-27, 2014
36.5%38.8%8.5%16%+/-3.8952
NBC News/Marist Poll
October 2014
43%44%4%8%+/-3.9636
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
October 2-5, 2014
42%47%4%7%+/-4.3775
Public Policy Polling
October 9-12, 2014
42%42%6%10%+/-31,081
Rasmussen Reports
October 20-21, 2014
45%52%1%2%+/-3960
NBC News/Marist
October 24, 2014
44%45%5%7%+/-3.6757
KSN/SurveyUSA
October 28, 2014
43%46%5%7%+/-4623
AVERAGES 40.96% 44.82% 5.38% 8.92% +/-3.48 903.83
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates and undecided
Poll Sam Brownback * (R) Paul Davis (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
{September 20-October 1, 2014)
45%42%12%+/-32,013
Gravis Marketing
(September 30-October 1, 2014)
40%48%12%+/-3850
Monmouth University
(October 16-19, 2014)
45%50%5%+/-4.7429
Gravis Marketing
(October 20-21, 2014)
44%49%7%+/-31,124
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
{October 16-23, 2014)
43%40%17%+/-41,973
AVERAGES 43.4% 45.8% 10.6% +/-3.54 1,277.8
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates, other and undecided
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)OtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
CBS/NYT/YouGov (Without leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
47%37%3%2%+/--1,274
CBS/NYT/YouGov (With leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
52%40%3%2%+/--1,274
Rasmussen
August 6-7, 2014
41%51%3%5%+/-4.0750
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R-Brownback)
August 17-30, 2014
43%42%0%0%+/-4.3500
CBS/NYT/YouGov
August 18-September 2, 2014
47%40%2%11%+/-5.0839
Public Policy Polling (Umbehr supporters reallocated
September 11-14, 2014
39%45%0%15%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 44.83% 42.5% 1.83% 5.83% +/-2.67 994.17
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates and "third party" category
Poll Sam Brownback/Jeff Coyler (R) Paul Davis/Jill Docking (D)Third PartyUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA Poll
(October 23-24, 2013)
39%43%12%6%+/-4.4511
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Debates

Debate media

September 19 debate
September 19 debate

Sam Brownback (R), Paul Davis (D) and Keen A. Umbehr (L) shared the stage for a debate sponsored by the Johnson County Public Policy Council. All three candidates took turns explaining why their policies would help the state's largest county. Brownback argued that the controversial tax cuts he proposed have already helped the county increase business development. He also took a swipe at Davis for opposing a proposal to school districts in the county more authority over property tax rates. Davis countered that Brownback's tax policies have depleted funds for schools and roads in the county and the Republican proposal for greater tax authority included a provision taking job protections away from educators. Umbehr advocated for elimination of the income tax, favoring a sales tax that would keep more cash on hand for county residents. Brownback and Davis both opposed a tax on professional services in the county, though Brownback questioned the authenticity of the Democratic candidate's position.[16]

2012

See also: Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2012

Davis won re-election in the 2012 election for Kansas House of Representatives District 46. He ran unopposed in the August 7 Democratic primary and was unopposed in the general election, which took place on November 6, 2012.[17]

2010

See also: Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2010

Davis won re-election to the 46th District seat in 2010 with no opposition. He was also unopposed in the Democratic primary. The general election took place on November 2, 2010.[18]

2008

See also: Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2008

On November 4, 2008, Davis was re-elected to the 46th District seat in the Kansas House of Representatives with no opposition.[19] He raised $29,074 for his campaign.[20]

Kansas House of Representatives, District 46
Candidates Votes Percent
Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Davis (D) 8,920 100%

Campaign donors

Comprehensive donor information for Davis is available dating back to 2004. Based on available campaign finance records, Davis raised a total of $218,104 during that time period. This information was last updated on June 14, 2013.[21]

Paul Davis's Campaign Contribution History
Year Office Result Contributions
2012 Kansas State House, District 46 Won $69,073
2010 Kansas State House, District 46 Won $62,562
2008 Kansas State House, District 46 Won $29,074
2006 Kansas State House, District 46 Won $23,601
2004 Kansas State House, District 46 Won $33,794
Grand Total Raised $218,104

2012

Davis won re-election to the Kansas House of Representatives in 2012. During that election cycle, Davis raised a total of $69,073.
Kansas House of Representatives 2012 election - Campaign Contributions
Top contributors to Paul Davis, Kansas Representative's campaign in 2012
Kansas Association of Insurance Agents$1,250
Chance, Lynann & Haase, John$1,000
ITC Great Plains LLC$1,000
Farmers Insurance Group$1,000
Hy-Vee Inc$1,000
Total Raised in 2012$69,073
Source:Follow the Money

2010

Davis won re-election to the Kansas House of Representatives in 2010. During that election cycle, Davis raised a total of $62,562.

2008

Davis won re-election to the Kansas House of Representatives in 2008. During that election cycle, Davis raised a total of $29,074.

2006

Davis won re-election to the Kansas House of Representatives in 2006. During that election cycle, Davis raised a total of $23,601.

2004

Davis won election to the Kansas House of Representatives in 2004. During that election cycle, Davis raised a total of $33,794.

Scorecards

Kansas Freedom Index

The Kansas Policy Institute, Kansas’s "first free market think tank," releases its legislator scorecard as a part of its Kansas Freedom Index for Kansas state representatives and senators once a year. The Score Card gives each legislator a score from 1%-100% based on how they voted in the prior legislative term on specific issues which the Kansas Policy Institute thought were pro-limited government policies.[22]

2013

Paul Davis received a score of 36.0% in the 2013 index.[23]

Personal

Davis has been a member of the Lawrence Rotary Club, Healthcare Access Incorporated, and the Kansas Bar Association.[2]

Recent news

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See also

External links

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References

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 The Topeka Capital-Journal, "Davis launches Democratic campaign for Kansas governor," September 17, 2013
  2. 2.0 2.1 Project Vote Smart, "Paul Davis' Biography," accessed November 18, 2014
  3. Kansas Legislature - Bills Introduced by Member (dead link)
  4. The Huffington Post, "Paul Davis Likely To Challenge Sam Brownback For Kansas Governor," August 2, 2013
  5. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named gov14
  6. The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
  7. Keen For Kansas, "Home," accessed October 6, 2013
  8. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014," November 15, 2013
  9. Kansas City Star, "Surveys find a hint of election vulnerability in Gov. Sam Brownback," October 29, 2013
  10. University of Virginia Center for Politics, "2014 Governor," accessed July 30, 2014
  11. Governing, "2014 Governors Races: A Look at the Too-Close-to-Call Contests," March 6, 2014
  12. FiveThirtyEight, "Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats," July 17, 2014
  13. The New York Times, "Kansas Democrats Turn to Data in Governor's Race," July 30, 2014
  14. The Washington Post, "More than 100 Republicans endorse Democrat against Kansas Gov. Brownback (R)," July 15, 2014
  15. The Wichita Eagle, "Polls on the Kansas governor's race vary widely," July 26, 2014
  16. The Kansas City Star, " At debate, Kansas gubernatorial candidates focus on Johnson County," September 19, 2014
  17. C-SPAN, "Kansas - Summary Vote Results," accessed August 7, 2012
  18. Kansas Secretary of State, "2010 General Election - Official Vote Totals," accessed March 29, 2014
  19. Kansas Secretary of State, "2008 General Election - Official Vote Totals," accessed March 29, 2014
  20. Follow the Money, "Kansas 2008 - General Election Results," accessed March 29, 2014
  21. followthemoney.org, "Davis, Paul," accessed June 14, 2013
  22. Kansas Policy Institute, "Freedom Index," accessed March 31, 2014
  23. 2013 Kansas Policy Index
Political offices
Preceded by
-
Kansas House of Representatives District 46
2003–present
Succeeded by
Dennis "Boog" Highberger (D) (effective January 12, 2015)