Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election, 2014

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Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
May 20, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Tom Corbett Republican Party
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The Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tom Corbett (R) is eligible, and running, for re-election. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office.

Corbett is one of the most endangered incumbent governors in the country.[1] He has trailed his Democratic challenger, Tom Wolf, by double digits in every poll of the race since February 2014, dropping as low as 25% at times, and Corbett has not led in any poll since January 2013.[2] With Wolf at or above 50% in most polling, Corbett faces an uphill battle.

The gubernatorial race is not the only race on the November ballot that could shift the balance of power in Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania House of Representatives and Pennsylvania State Senate have been identified by Ballotpedia as two of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. Both chambers and the governor's office could be held by a single party, which would turn Pennsylvania into a state government trifecta. Learn more about the state's most competitive legislative races on the battleground chambers page.

Pennsylvania is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[3][4][5]

Candidates

General election candidates

Failed to qualify

Lost in the primary

Removed from ballot

Withdrawn

Declined


Key deadlines

Deadline Event
March 11 Primary filing deadline[32]
May 20 Primary election
August 1 General filing deadline
November 4 General election

Primary Election Results

  • Republican primary - Tom Corbett was unopposed in the primary.
  • Democratic primary - Tom Wolf defeated three challengers to win the nomination.
Governor of Pennsylvania, Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Allyson Schwartz 17.6% 149,027
Green check mark transparent.pngTom Wolf 57.9% 488,917
Kate McGinty 7.7% 64,754
Rob McCord 16.8% 142,311
Total Votes 845,009
Election Results Via:Pennsylvania Department of State Official Election Results.


Race background

There are 36 states holding regularly scheduled gubernatorial elections in 2014 and there are 5-10 seats considered most likely to face partisan switch, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett among them. He was moved into to the top slot on the Washington Post's "endangered" list, after having been in third place during the prior rating cycle.[33][34][35] Corbett's upgraded vulnerability status comes to bear on the heels of his failure to enact any of his three tent-pole policy initiatives during recently concluded spring legislative session. The timing also corresponded to a further swell of Democratic candidates entering the 2014 governor's race.

By the summer of 2013, The New York Times, The Washington Post and Governing had all rated Republican incumbent Tom Corbett as one of the most vulnerable governors facing re-election in 2014.[36] Their reports reflect the Republican governor's increasingly weak position heading into the 2014 election season, when his abysmal job approval ratings will finally be put to the test by state Democrats, fired-up for an ousting after years under a Republican trifecta.[37]

Early polling and candidates

A July 2013 survey taken by Harper Polling showed that just under a quarter of state residents thought Corbett deserves to be elected again in 2014.[38] Those results backed up earlier polling figures released by Quinnipiac University, which had him at 38 percent job approval and substantially behind Democratic gubernatorial candidate U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz in a hypothetical general election match up.[39] The Quinnipiac poll showed Schwartz beating Corbett by a whopping 10 points. These were even better numbers than had been revealed in a similar survey conducted previously by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican-aligned firm.[40]

Back in April 2013, Schwartz was already looking especially threatening due to Corbett's dismal popularity among female respondents, 54-27 percent of whom expressed opposition to Corbett’s re-election, a margin of 2 to 1.[41]

Several Democratic hopefuls - Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Secretary John Hanger, Hanger's predecessor Kate McGinty, Cumberland County minister Max Myers, Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz, York businessman Tom Wolf and State Treasurer Rob McCord - formally launched 2014 campaigns for governor. Three other potential Democratic candidates were mentioned in connection with the race: State rep. H. Scott Conklin, former state auditor and state senator Jack Wagner and county commission chairman Josh Shapiro.[42][25][43][44]

Republican primary

Two Republicans have also been mentioned as potential primary opponents of Governor Corbett: former radio announcer Tom Lineaweaver and conservative activist Bob Guzzardi.[45][46] Guzzardi filed for the Republican primary and initially survived a challenge to his campaign's signatures after the Republican Party of Pennsylvania tried to get him disqualified.[47] However, on appeal to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, Guzzardi was ordered stricken from the ballot on a technicality. The majority on the court found that Guzzardi had failed to "meet a deadline for filing a statement of financial interests" with the State Ethics Commission and his campaign filing therefore "possessed a 'fatal defect.'"[48] Two justices dissented, citing the lower court's finding that Guzzardi had filed the proper forms with the Pennsylvania Department of State and had been told by an employee there that he did not need to also file with the State Ethics Board.[48][49]

I agree with the Commonwealth Court that what occurred here was a breakdown in the administrative process. To strike this candidate's name from the ballot is akin to denying candidates their right to appear on the ballot under circumstances where there was some accident or natural disaster preventing candidates from entering the filing office.[50]

—Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice Max Baer, In Re: Nom. Pet. of Robert Guzzardi Dissenting Statement

Democratic primary

See also: Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election, 2014#Primary election results

Businessman Tom Wolf took the Democratic primary by storm, spending on early campaign ads and taking an early lead that proved unsurpassed by the other candidates. This was an upset for early favorite Allyson Schwartz, who finished a distant second.

Third party candidates

Green Party candidate Paul Glover and Libertarian Party candidate Ken Krawchuk failed to get on to the November general election ballot after failing to collect the 17,000 required signatures.[51] Referencing the perceived lack of options on the ballot that this produced, Republican-turned-Independent Tom Lineaweaver declared a write-in campaign.[52] Lineaweaver had previously been considered a possible Republican primary challenger to Corbett.


Polls

General election

Pennsylvania Governor's Race - Corbett vs. Wolf, Polling to August 2014
Poll Tom Corbett (R) Tom Wolf (D)Other/Undecided/Won't voteMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac
December 11-16, 2013
37%44%14%+/-31,061
Gravis Marketing
January 28, 2014
34%41%24%+/-4717
Quinnipiac
February 19-24, 2014
33%52%14%+/-2.61,405
Rasmussen
May 27-28, 2014
31%51%18%+/-4750
Public Policy Polling
May 30 - June 1, 2014
30%55%15%+/-3.4835
Franklin & Marshall
June 23-29, 2014
25%47%27%+/-4.4502
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
July 5-24, 2014
39%52%9%+/-04,150
Magellan Strategies
July 30-31, 2014
38%50%12%+/-2.81,214
Franklin & Marshall
August 18-25, 2014
24%49%27%+/-4.3520
YouGov
August 18 - September 2, 2014
39%50%11%+/-2.03,560
AVERAGES 33% 49.1% 17.1% +/-3.05 1,471.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Pennsylvania Governor's Race - Corbett vs. Wolf, Polling from September 2014
Poll Tom Corbett (R) Tom Wolf (D)Other/Undecided/Won't voteMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling
September 2-3, 2014
41%52%7%+/-3.2665
Quinnipiac
September 3-8, 2014
35%59%6%+/-2.91,161
AVERAGES 38% 55.5% 6.5% +/-3.05 913
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Hypothetical match-ups

Democratic primary

Governor of Pennsylvania - Democratic Primary
Poll Allyson Schwartz Kate McGintyRob McCordTom WolfNot sure/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling
November 9-10, 2013
22%15%12%5%47%+/-3.85649
Franklin & Marshall
February 18-23, 2014
9%1%3%36%49%+/-4.2548
Franklin & Marshall
March 25-31, 2014
7%4%6%33%46%+/-4.3524
Muhlenberg College for Morning Call
April 28-30, 2014
16%3%14%42%33%+/-5417
Franklin & Marshall
May 6-12, 2014
14%5%9%33%39%+/-4.3530
Harper Polling
May 12-13, 2014
15%5%15%50%16%+/-4.14559
Muhlenberg College for Morning Call
May 13-15, 2014
14%5%9%37%35%+/-5414
AVERAGES 13.86% 5.43% 9.71% 33.71% 37.86% +/-4.4 520.14
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

See also

External links

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References

  1. RealClearPolitics, "2014 GOVERNOR RACES," accessed August 14, 2014
  2. RealClearPolitics, "Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Wolf," accessed August 14, 2014
  3. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  4. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  5. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  6. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," March 11, 2013
  7. The Associated Press, "AP: Ex-revenue chief Tom Wolf running for Pa. gov," April 2, 2013
  8. Facebook, "Tom Lineaweaver for Governor of PA," accessed September 2, 2013
  9. 9.0 9.1 9.2 Pennsylvania Department of State, "2014 Primary Candidate List," March 12, 2014
  10. Son of David Forums: Write In The Right Tom, "Why I Want To Be Governor," accessed August 8, 2014
  11. Montgomery County Green Party, "Paul Glover Seeking GPPA Gubernatorial Nomination," December 9, 2013
  12. 12.0 12.1 Lewistown Sentinel, "Third-party hopefuls abandon bids for Pa. governor," August 1, 2014
  13. TribLive, "Philadelphian may seek Libertarian nomination for gubernatorial run," November 1, 2013
  14. 14.0 14.1 14.2 Philly.com, "Brady likes Stack for governor," April 24, 2013
  15. Philly.com, "State Treasurer joins race for governor," September 24, 2013
  16. The Republic, "Conservative activist Bob Guzzardi says he aims to challenge Corbett in Pa. GOP primary," Decamber 31, 2013
  17. PennLive, "Pa. Supreme Court ousts Guzzardi from GOP ballot in governor's race," May 1, 2014
  18. 18.0 18.1 The Morning Call, "Qpoll: Pawlowski, Sestak top potential Dem challengers against Corbett," March 13, 2013
  19. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Allentown mayor runs for governor in 2014," September 8, 2013
  20. Lehigh Valley Live, "Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski officially pulls out of governor's race, citing lack of money," February 4, 2014
  21. PoliticsPA, "Exclusive: Conklin Joins Dem Gov-Stakes," March 26, 2013
  22. Centre Daily Times, "Rep. Scott Conklin won’t run for Pennsylvania governor," March 11, 2014
  23. Jo Ellen Litz For Governor 2014, "Homepage," accessed July 15, 2013
  24. Centre Daily Times, "Pa. filings leave Corbett facing new challenge," March 12, 2014
  25. 25.0 25.1 25.2 PoliticsPA, "Exclusive: McGinty to Launch Guv Exploratory Committee," March 18, 2013
  26. Trib-Live, Wagner mulls gubernatorial run, August 17, 2013]
  27. philly.com, "Jack Wagner drops out of Pa. governor's race," March 27, 2014
  28. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Former DEP head John Hanger drops out of governor's race," March 27, 2014
  29. PoliticsPA, "Breaking: Castor Rules Out 2014 Run," May 7, 2013
  30. PoliticsPA, "State Sen. Stack Passes on Guv Run, Seeks LG Instead," October 17, 2013
  31. Allentown Morning Call, "Corbett: No plans to end 'tradition' of Pa. governors serving two terms," November 12, 2012
  32. Pennsylvania Department of State, "Important Dates," December 7, 2014
  33. University of Virginia Center for Politics: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," April 29, 2013
  34. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top 15 gubernatorial races," March 22, 2013
  35. Governing Politics, "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?," December 12, 2012
  36. The New York Times, "Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?," April 8, 2013
  37. The Washington Post, "Tom Corbett is the most endangered governor in the country," July 12, 2013
  38. Harper Polling, "Pennsylvania Poll: State Budget & Corbett Re-election," July 1-2, 2013
  39. Quinnipiac University, "Schwartz, Best-Known Of Unknown Dems, Tops Corbett, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Girl Next Door Clinton Tops Native Son Santorum In 2016," June 7, 2013
  40. Public Opinion Strategies via the Philadelphia City Paper "Pennsylvania Statewide/Philadelphia Suburbs Poll," April 30-May 2, 2013
  41. Quinnipiac University Poll, "LEADING DEMS TOP CORBETT IN PENNSYLVANIA GOV RACE,QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;DEM PRIMARY IS A RACE BETWEEN SCHWARTZ AND SESTAK," April 29, 2013
  42. Philadelphia Inquirer, "State Treasurer Rob McCord launches PAC for governors race," July 11, 2013
  43. The Associated Press, "AP: Ex-revenue chief Tom Wolf running for Pa. gov," April 2, 2013
  44. Lebanon Daily News, "Litz to announce run for governor July 2," June 18, 2013
  45. Facebook, "Tom Lineaweaver for Governor of PA," accessed September 2, 2013
  46. The Republic, "Conservative activist Bob Guzzardi says he aims to challenge Corbett in Pa. GOP primary," Decamber 31, 2013
  47. TribLive, "Judge says Corbett primary challenger can stay on ballot, appeal planned," April 16, 2014
  48. 48.0 48.1 PennLive, "Pa. Supreme Court ousts Guzzardi from GOP ballot in governor's race," May 1, 2014
  49. PennLive, "Corbett challenger Robert Guzzardi will stay on Republican primary ballot," April 15, 2014
  50. Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributed to the original source.
  51. Lewistown Sentinel, "Third-party hopefuls abandon bids for Pa. governor," August 1, 2014
  52. Son of David Forums: Write In The Right Tom, "Why I Want To Be Governor," accessed August 8, 2014