Primary change: 8 Tennessee legislators fall in primaries, bringing cumulative total above 2010 figures

August 3, 2012

By Geoff Pallay

MADISON, Wisconsin: On July 26, 2012, Ballotpedia released an analysis of the rate at which incumbents are being defeated by challengers in state legislative primaries. That study was conducted roughly halfway through the primary season, and found that 76 incumbents had been defeated through the first 48 percent of primaries. After each primary, we will update those figures. This update focuses on Tennessee, where a total of eight incumbents fell to opponents on August 2, 2012. The total incumbents defeated in 2012 -- 99 -- has now eclipsed the 2010 total of 96 incumbents.

A total of 104 Tennessee legislative incumbents filed for re-election. Thirty-seven incumbents faced a primary, and opponents were victorious in eight of those races. Thus, 21.62 percent of opposed incumbents were defeated by their primary challenger.

There are still five races involving an incumbent that are too close to call. Provisional and military ballots are still being tallied -- thus, the total number of incumbents defeated in Tennessee could still increase.

The eight total incumbents who lost last night brought the nationwide figure to 99 defeated in 2012 primaries. Incumbents have been defeated in 16.50 percent of the primaries where they faced an actual opponent.

Of the 91 incumbents that have lost a primary in 2012, 31 are Democratic incumbents and 68 are Republican incumbents.

What's next

The next state legislative primary takes place Tuesday in four states -- Kansas, Missouri, Michigan and Washington.

Cumulative table of results

		Individual State Results				Nationwide Cumulative Results
State	Primary date	Total Incumbents Running	Total Incumbents Facing Primary	Total Incumbents Defeated	% Incumbents Defeated***	Total Incumbents Defeated	Total Incumbents Facing primary	% Incumbents Defeated***
Tennessee	8/2/2012	104	37	8+++	21.62%	99	600	16.50%
Georgia	7/31/2012	210	50	11	22.00%	91	563	16.16%
Utah	6/26/2012	78	29	8	27.59%	80	513	15.59%
Colorado	6/26/2012	54	5	2	40.00%	72	484	14.88%
Oklahoma	6/26/2012	105	12	1	8.33%	70	479	14.61%
Maine	6/12/2012	121	5	0	0.00%	69	467	14.78%
Nevada	6/12/2012	36	12	2	16.67%	69	462	14.94%
South Carolina	6/12/2012	146	37	6	16.22%	67	450	14.89%
North Dakota	6/12/2012	75	7	4	57.14%	61	413	14.77%
California	6/5/2012	56	20	0	0.00%	57	406	14.04%
Montana	6/5/2012	82	17	4	23.53%	57	386	14.77%
Iowa	6/5/2012	97	16	3	18.75%	53	369	14.36%
New Mexico	6/5/2012	92	29	5	17.24%	50	353	14.16%
South Dakota	6/5/2012	74	23	5	21.74%	45	324	13.89%
Texas	5/29/2012	147	45	11	24.44%	40	301	13.29%
Kentucky	5/22/2012	106	21	1	4.76%	29	256	11.33%
Arkansas	5/22/2012	88	14	2	14.29%	28	235	11.91%
Nebraska	5/15/2012	17	5	0	0.00%	26	221	11.76%
Oregon	5/15/2012	66	4	2	50.00%	26	216	12.04%
Idaho	5/15/2012	70	34	3	8.82%	24	212	11.32%
West Virginia	5/8/2012	98	37	2	5.41%	21	178	11.80%
Indiana	5/8/2012	105	17	0	0.00%	19	141	13.48%
North Carolina	5/8/2012	128	39	7	17.95%	19	124	15.32%
Pennsylvania	4/24/2012	210	37	5	13.51%	12	85	14.12%
Illinois	3/20/2012	149	33	6	18.18%	7	48	14.58%
Ohio	3/6/2012	101	15	1	6.67%	1	15	6.67%
***Note: The percent is calculated by dividing the total number of incumbents who lost by the number of incumbents who actually faced a primary. It is not using the total number of incumbents who ran for re-election. +++There are still 5 races with incumbents that are too close to call from the Tennessee Primary.

Full study

• Primary Change: Anti-Incumbency Voting Patterns in State Legislative Primaries

See also

• Incumbents defeated in 2012's state legislative elections
• State legislative elections, 2012
• 2012 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
• Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Analysis for 2012
• Major party candidates with no major party challengers in the November 2012 state legislative elections
• Open seats in the 2012 state legislative elections
• Incumbents with a primary challenger in the 2012 state legislative elections