Projected outcomes of state legislative elections, 2012

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This page details Ballotpedia's projections of the results of the 2012 state legislative elections.

[edit]

See also: Projected outcomes of state senate elections
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Democrats

Before election: 19

Predicted after election: 14 (Excluding 6 Toss-ups)

Actual: 20
Republicans

Before election: 28

Predicted after election: 30 (Excluding 6 Toss-ups)

Actual: 28
*Note: There were two senates that were tied heading into the 2012 elections -- Alaska and Virginia. Additionally, Nebraska is a nonpartisan chamber. Because Virginia does not hold elections in 2012, there are 48 possible chambers that can be held by a party. The numbers in the tables below do not include chambers without elections in 2012.
MonthSafe DLikely DLean DToss UpLean RLikely RSafe R
August 1, 201273273614
September 1, 201272365514
October 1, 201281365514
November 1, 201271456514

Note: Since one state senate is nonpartisan, a political party is defined as having the majority of state senates if it has at least 25. The Democratic Party needs to win all the Safe, Likely and Leans Democratic, all Toss Ups, all Lean GOP, and one of the Likely GOP states to get to 25. The Republican Party needs to win all the Safe and Likely Republican states to get to 25.

Safe D Likely Dem. Leans Dem. Toss Up Leans GOP Likely GOP Safe R
California (D)
Hawaii (D)
Illinois (D)
Massachusetts (D)
Rhode Island (D)
Vermont (D)
West Virginia (D)

Not up:
Maryland (D)
New Jersey (D)
Delaware (D) Possible D Pick-up
Maine (R)
Connecticut (D)
Oregon (D)
Washington (D)
Colorado (D)
Iowa (D)
Nevada (D)
Minnesota (R)
New Mexico (D)
Possible R Pick-up
Arkansas (D)
Wisconsin (D)
Alaska (Even Split)
New York (R)
New Hampshire (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Arizona (R)
Florida (R)
Missouri (R)
Montana (R)
South Carolina (R)
Georgia (R)
Idaho (R)
Indiana (R)
Kansas (R)
Kentucky (R)
North Carolina (R)
North Dakota (R)
Ohio (R)
Oklahoma (R)
South Dakota (R)
Tennessee (R)
Texas (R)
Utah (R)
Wyoming (R)
Not up:
Alabama (R)
Louisiana (R)
Michigan (R)
Mississippi (R)
Virginia (R)
August changes: Alaska to lean R; Pennsylvania to lean R; Washington to lean D
September changes: Rhode Island to safe D
October changes: Connecticut to Lean D; Iowa to Toss-up; Arkansas to Lean R; Maine to Lean D

Partisan dominance in state senates
heading into the 2012 state legislative elections
Nevada State SenateMassachusetts State SenateColorado State SenateNew Mexico State SenateWyoming State SenateArizona State SenateMontana State SenateCalifornia State SenateOregon State SenateWashington State SenateIdaho State SenateTexas State SenateOklahoma State SenateKansas State SenateSouth Dakota State SenateNorth Dakota State SenateMinnesota State SenateIowa State SenateMissouri State SenateArkansas State SenateLouisiana State SenateMississippi State SenateAlabama State SenateGeorgia State SenateFlorida State SenateSouth Carolina State SenateIllinois State SenateWisconsin State AssemblyTennessee State SenateNorth Carolina State SenateIndiana State SenateOhio State SenateKentucky State SenatePennsylvania State SenateNew Jersey State SenateNew York State SenateVermont State SenateVermont State SenateNew Hampshire State SenateMaine State SenateWest Virginia State SenateVirginia State SenateNebraska State Senate (Unicameral)Maryland State SenateMaryland State SenateConnecticut State SenateConnecticut State SenateDelaware State SenateDelaware State SenateRhode Island State SenateRhode Island State SenateMassachusetts State SenateNew Hampshire State SenateMichigan State SenateMichigan State SenateAlaska State SenateState Senate Map 2012.png

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Democrats

Before election: 17

Predicted after election: 16 (Excluding 4 Toss-ups)

Actual: 21
Republicans

Before election: 31

Predicted after election: 29 (Excluding 4 Toss-ups)

Actual: 28
*Note: There was one house that was tied heading into the 2012 elections -- Oregon. Additionally, Nebraska does not have a state house.
MonthSafe DLikely DLean DToss UpLean RLikely RSafe R
August 1, 2012101255515
September 1, 2012101256514
October 1, 2012101256415
November 1, 2012101246515

Note: Since there are 49 state houses (Nebraska only has a senate), a political party is defined as having the majority of state houses if it has at least 25. The Democratic Party needs to win all the Safe, Likely and Leans Democratic states, Toss Up states, and four Lean GOP states to get to 25. The Republican Party needs to win all the Safe and Likely GOP states and one Lean GOP state to get to 25.

Safe D Likely Dem. Leans Dem. Toss Up Leans GOP Likely GOP Safe R
California (D)
Connecticut (D)
Delaware (D)
Hawaii (D)
Illinois (D)
Massachusetts (D)
New York (D)
Rhode Island (D)
Vermont (D)
West Virginia (D)

Not up:
Maryland (D)
Mississippi (D)
New Jersey (D)
Washington (D)
Kentucky (D)
Nevada (D)
Colorado (R)
Maine (R)
Minnesota (R)
Oregon (Even split)
Possible R Pick-up:
Arkansas (D)
New Mexico (D)

Alaska (R)
Iowa (R)
Michigan (R)
New Hampshire (R)
Arizona (R)
Missouri (R)
Ohio (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Wisconsin (R)
Florida (R)
Georgia (R)
Idaho (R)
Indiana (R)
Kansas (R)
Montana (R)
North Carolina (R)
North Dakota (R)
Oklahoma (R)
South Carolina (R)
South Dakota (R)
Tennessee (R)
Texas (R)
Utah (R)
Wyoming (R)

Not up:
Alabama (R)
Louisiana (R)
Virginia (R)
August changes: Ohio to likely R; New Hampshire to lean R
September changes: Montana to Safe R
October changes: Arkansas to Lean Republican; Pennsylvania to Likely Republican

Partisan dominance in state houses
heading into the 2012 state legislative elections
Nevada State AssemblyMassachusetts House of RepresentativesColorado House of RepresentativesNew Mexico House of RepresentativesWyoming House of RepresentativesArizona House of RepresentativesMontana House of RepresentativesCalifornia State AssemblyOregon House of RepresentativesWashington House of RepresentativesIdaho House of RepresentativesTexas House of RepresentativesOklahoma House of RepresentativesKansas House of RepresentativesSouth Dakota House of RepresentativesNorth Dakota House of RepresentativesMinnesota House of RepresentativesIowa House of RepresentativesMissouri House of RepresentativesArkansas House of RepresentativesLouisiana House of RepresentativesMississippi House of RepresentativesAlabama House of RepresentativesGeorgia House of RepresentativesFlorida House of RepresentativesSouth Carolina House of RepresentativesIllinois House of RepresentativesWisconsin State AssemblyTennessee House of RepresentativesNorth Carolina House of RepresentativesIndiana House of RepresentativesOhio House of RepresentativesKentucky House of RepresentativesPennsylvania House of RepresentativesNew Jersey State AssemblyNew York State AssemblyVermont House of RepresentativesVermont House of RepresentativesNew Hampshire House of RepresentativesMaine House of RepresentativesWest Virginia House of DelegatesVirginia State AssemblyMaryland House of DelegatesMaryland House of DelegatesConnecticut House of RepresentativesConnecticut House of RepresentativesDelaware House of RepresentativesDelaware House of RepresentativesRhode Island House of RepresentativesRhode Island House of RepresentativesMassachusetts House of RepresentativesNew Hampshire House of RepresentativesMichigan House of RepresentativesMichigan House of RepresentativesAlaska House of RepresentativesState House Map 2012.png

See also