United States House of Representatives elections, 2014

From Ballotpedia
(Redirected from U.S. House elections, 2014)
Jump to: navigation, search
2012

CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. House Elections

Election Date
November 4, 2014

U.S. Senate Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Elections Information
Election DatesVoting in Primaries
Voting on November 4, 2014
Poll Opening and Closing Times

Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 4, 2014. All 435 seats were up for election. Additionally, three special elections were held on November 4 to fill seats for the remainder of the 113th Congress term. As of December 17, 2014, Arizona's 2nd District remains uncalled. Two races, Louisiana's 5th and 6th Districts headed to a runoff on December 6, 2014. In both races, Republicans won the seats. With the addition of these seats, Republicans achieved the largest majority since 1928.

U.S. House
Dem. 188
Rep. 247
Ind. 0
TOTAL 435
Click here for more details.

Heading into the November 2014 election, the Republican Party held 233 to 199 lead in the U.S. House over the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party faced an uphill climb in attempts to retake the majority. This was in part because, historically, the incumbent president's party rarely makes gains during the midterm elections.[1]

An NBC/WSJ poll in late April 2014 indicated that 45 percent of voters wanted a Republican-controlled Congress and 45 percent of voters wanted a Democrat-controlled Congress. However, of voters who expressed the highest likelihood of voting, 53 percent prefered a Republican-controlled Congress and 38 percent prefered a Democrat-controlled Congress. The same poll gave President Obama a 41 percent approval rating. This was 13 points below where the president's approval stood in April 2010, a year that turned out badly for Democrats in the 2010 House elections.[2][3]

During the 2014 U.S. House primary elections, four incumbents lost their primary bids: Reps. Kerry Bentivolio (R), Eric Cantor (R), Ralph Hall (R) and John Tierney (D).

Election results

Did the Democratic Party reduce the Republican U.S. House majority?

All 435 U.S. House of Representatives seats were up for election. Republicans went into the election with a 233-199 majority (with three vacancies). Democrats failed to pick up 19 seats to flip control and instead lost seats. On this page, Ballotpedia tracked the districts identified as battleground districts. Below the battleground chart, we also tracked unexpectedly close races that developed throughout election night.

Note: The tables below were updated in real-time on election night. As races were called, we updated the partisan count totals.

U.S. House
Dem. 188
Rep. 247
Ind. 0
TOTAL 435
Click here for more details.
State Before After
Incumbent Party Winner Winner Party District Party Change?
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party No
Arizona's 2nd District Ron Barber Democratic Party Martha McSally Republican Party Yes
Arizona's 9th District Kyrsten Sinema Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema Democratic Party No
California's 7th District Ami Bera Democratic Party Ami Bera Democratic Party No
California's 21st District David Valadao Republican Party David Valadao Republican Party No
California's 36th District Raul Ruiz Democratic Party Raul Ruiz Democratic Party No
California's 52nd District Scott Peters Democratic Party Scott Peters Democratic Party No
Colorado's 6th District Mike Coffman Republican Party Mike Coffman Republican Party No
Florida's 18th District Patrick Murphy Democratic Party Patrick Murphy Democratic Party No
Florida's 26th District Joe Garcia Democratic Party Carlos Curbelo Republican Party Yes
Illinois' 12th District William Enyart Democratic Party Mike Bost Republican Party Yes
Illinois' 13th District Rodney Davis Republican Party Rodney Davis Republican Party No
Michigan's 1st District Dan Benishek Republican Party Dan Benishek Republican Party No
Minnesota's 8th District Rick Nolan Democratic Party Rick Nolan Democratic Party No
Nevada's 3rd District Joe Heck Republican Party Joe Heck Republican Party No
New Hampshire's 1st District Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Frank Guinta Republican Party Yes
New Jersey's 2nd District Frank LoBiondo Republican Party Frank LoBiondo Republican Party No
New Jersey's 3rd District Jon Runyan* Republican Party Tom MacArthur Republican Party No
New York's 1st District Tim Bishop Democratic Party Lee Zeldin Republican Party Yes
New York's 11th District Michael Grimm Republican Party Michael Grimm Republican Party No
New York's 18th District Sean Maloney Democratic Party Sean Maloney Democratic Party No
New York's 21st District Bill Owens* Democratic Party Elise Stefanik Republican Party Yes
New York's 23rd District Tom Reed Republican Party Tom Reed Republican Party No
Texas' 23rd District Pete Gallego Democratic Party Will Hurd Republican Party Yes
Virginia's 2nd District Scott Rigell Republican Party Scott Rigell Republican Party No
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall Democratic Party Evan Jenkins Republican Party Yes

"*" indicates that the incumbent retired in 2014.

Upsets

Non-battleground district upsets and partisan changes included:

District Before After
Incumbent Party Winner Winner Party
California's 31st District Gary Miller (Retired) Republican Party Pete Aguilar Democratic Party
Florida's 2nd District Steve Southerland Republican Party Gwen Graham Democratic Party
Georgia's 12th District John Barrow Democratic Party Rick Allen Republican Party
Illinois' 10th District Brad Schneider Democratic Party Robert J. Dold Republican Party
Iowa's 1st District Bruce Braley (Ran for Senate) Democratic Party Rod Blum Republican Party
Maine's 2nd District Mike Michaud (Ran for governor) Democratic Party Bruce Poliquin Republican Party
Nebraska's 2nd District Lee Terry Republican Party Brad Ashford Democratic Party
Nevada's 4th District Steven Horsford Democratic Party Cresent Hardy Republican Party
New York's 24th District Dan Maffei Democratic Party John Katko Republican Party

Expected seat changes

These are districts where a change in party was expected due to a very vulnerable incumbent. These races were not rated as battlegrounds because they were likely to flip control.

District Before After
Incumbent Party Winner Winner Party
North Carolina's 7th District Mike McIntyre (Retiring) Democratic Party David Rouzer Republican Party
Utah's 4th District Jim Matheson (Retiring) Democratic Party Mia Love Republican Party
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall Democratic Party Evan Jenkins Republican Party

Incumbents who lost

Partisanship of the losing incumbents:

  • Republican Party 3
  • Democratic Party 10
District Before After
Incumbent Party Winner Winner Party
Arizona's 2nd District Ron Barber Democratic Party Martha McSally Republican Party
Florida's 2nd District Steve Southerland Republican Party Gwen Graham Democratic Party
Florida's 26th District Joe Garcia Democratic Party Carlos Curbelo Republican Party
Georgia's 12th District John Barrow Democratic Party Rick Allen Republican Party
Illinois' 10th District Brad Schneider Democratic Party Robert Dold Republican Party
Illinois' 12th District Bill Enyart Democratic Party Mike Bost Republican Party
Louisiana's 5th District Vance McAllister Republican Party Ralph Abraham Republican Party
Nebraska's 2nd District Lee Terry Republican Party Brad Ashford Democratic Party
Nevada's 4th District Steven Horsford Democratic Party Cresent Hardy Republican Party
New Hampshire's 1st District Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Frank Guinta Republican Party
New York's 1st District Tim Bishop Democratic Party Lee Zeldin Republican Party
Texas' 23rd District Pete Gallego Democratic Party Will Hurd Republican Party
New York's 24th District Dan Maffei Democratic Party John Katko Republican Party
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall Democratic Party Evan Jenkins Republican Party

Partisan breakdown

In 2012, when President Barack Obama won re-election by 126 electoral votes, the Republican party maintained their control of the U.S. House, winning 234 seats to the Democrats 201 seats. This was up from the 193 seats Democrats held prior to the election. Due to various factors, the partisan breakdown of the 113th Congress shifted throughout the session. The breakdown headed into the election was as follows:

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
Party As of December 2014 After the 2014 Election
     Democratic Party 201 Pending
     Republican Party 234 Pending
     Vacancy 0 Pending
Total 435 435
  • The official count for the post-election breakdown is still pending due to uncalled races.

The three vacancies heading into the election were in New Jersey's 1st Congressional District, North Carolina's 12th Congressional District, and Virginia's 7th Congressional District.

Following the 2012 general election, Democratic incumbents held nine seats that had a political lean favoring Republicans by 54 percent or more. This was down from 2010 where Democrats held 32 seats in Republican-leaning districts. In 2012, there were 24 districts in which one party's nominee carried the presidential vote and the other party's nominee won the congressional race. Twenty of these instances were won by an incumbent. Of the 435 districts, 241 had a Republican lean. While Democratic candidates won more than a million votes over Republican candidates in the 2012 general election, most of the votes were clustered around urban areas as opposed to being broadly dispersed across the country. There were 47 districts with a partisan divide of 70 percent to 30 percent in favor of Democrats. Only 23 such districts existed on the Republican side. Of the 16 districts where the partisan divide was 80 percent to 20 percent or more, Democrats represented 15 of them.[4]

Retiring incumbents

See also List of U.S. Congress incumbents not running for re-election in 2014

Forty-one House members announced they would not seek re-election in 2014. Thirteen members left their current positions to run for the Senate in 2014.

  • Democratic Party 16 Democrats
  • Republican Party 25 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
Allyson SchwartzElectiondot.png Democratic Pennsylvania, District 13
Bill CassidyEnds.png Republican U.S. Senate, Louisiana
Bill OwensElectiondot.png Democratic New York, District 21
Bruce BraleyElectiondot.png Democratic Iowa, District 1
Buck McKeonEnds.png Republican California, District 25
Carolyn McCarthyElectiondot.png Democratic New York, District 4
Colleen W. HanabusaElectiondot.png Democratic Hawaii, District 1
Cory GardnerEnds.png Republican Colorado
Dave CampEnds.png Republican Michigan, District 4
Doc HastingsEnds.png Republican Washington, District 4
Ed PastorElectiondot.png Democratic Arizona, District 7
Frank WolfEnds.png Republican Virginia, District 10
Gary MillerEnds.png Republican California, District 31
Gary PetersElectiondot.png Democratic Michigan
George MillerElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 11
Gloria Negrete McLeodElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 35
Henry WaxmanElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 33
Howard CobleEnds.png Republican North Carolina, District 6
Jack KingstonEnds.png Republican Georgia, District 1
James LankfordEnds.png Republican Oklahoma
Jim GerlachEnds.png Republican Pennsylvania, District 6
Jim MathesonElectiondot.png Democratic Utah, District 4
Jim MoranElectiondot.png Democratic Virginia, District 8
John CampbellEnds.png Republican California, District 45
John D. Dingell, Jr.Electiondot.png Democratic Michigan, District 12
Jon RunyanEnds.png Republican New Jersey, District 3
Michele BachmannEnds.png Republican Minnesota, District 6
Mike McIntyreElectiondot.png Democratic North Carolina, District 7
Mike MichaudElectiondot.png Democratic Maine, District 2
Mike RogersEnds.png Republican Michigan, District 8
Paul C. BrounEnds.png Republican Georgia, District 10
Phil GingreyEnds.png Republican Georgia, District 11
Rush D. Holt, Jr.Electiondot.png Democratic New Jersey, District 12
Shelley Moore CapitoEnds.png Republican West Virginia, District 2
Spencer BachusEnds.png Republican Alabama, District 6
Steve DainesEnds.png Republican Montana
Steve StockmanEnds.png Republican Texas, District 36
Tim GriffinEnds.png Republican Arkansas, District 2
Tom CottonEnds.png Republican Arkansas
Tom LathamEnds.png Republican Iowa, District 3
Tom PetriEnds.png Republican Wisconsin, District 6

Ballotpedia's battleground districts

See also: U.S. House battleground districts, 2014
The purple districts on the Census district map were those found to be competitive in Ballotpedia's study.

Five criteria

A district must have met one or more of the following criteria:

1. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential, and incumbent years in office) and four were of the most competitive nature, purple, they automatically made the cut.

Nineteen districts fit in this category.

2. The district was considered competitive if it had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) with three of the highlighted factors being most competitive (purple) and two being intermediate competitive (orange). The district must also have had a “special factor” (high outside spending, redistricting) to be added to the most competitive list.

Two districts fit into this category.

3. Anomalies: This included Republicans or Democrats in a district that otherwise trended heavily toward the other party. The district must also have had some other qualifying factor, such as an MOV of ten percent or less, an incumbent who had served less than ten years or a competitive 2014 candidate. Both Utah's 4th Congressional District and North Carolina's 7th Congressional District were examples of this before Reps. Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre announced their retirements.

One district fits into this category.

4. Presidential differences: A district that may not have had all the categories highlighted, but voted for the other party in the most recent presidential election and the numbers were tight for the incumbent (redistricting was also factored in here).

One district was considered “Most Competitive” based only on this factor.

5. Recent effects of redistricting: This was relevant to three districts (IL-12, IL-13 and MN-08). Redistricting in the past three years caused these districts to be extremely tight and had the opportunity for a very close midterm election (the first midterm cycle these new districts will be going through).

Three districts were pushed into the most competitive list because of this, just missing meeting the other criteria listed above.


The 26 most competitive

Color Key
Color Cook Partisan Voting Index Fairvote (Projected D%) Margin of Victory (MOV) 2012 Presidential MOV % % 2008 Presidential MOV % Incumbent years in office
Purple- most competitive Even; R or D 0-4 45.1% - 54.9% 0-4.9 0-4.9 0-4.9 0 - 4
Orange- very competitive R or D 5-7 42.1% - 45.0%; 55% - 57.9% 5.0-7.9 5.0-7.9 5.0-7.9 5 - 7
Green- competitive R or D 8-10 40.0% - 42.0%; 58% - 60% 8.0-10.00 8.0-10.00 8.0-10.00 8 - 10
House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the House winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the district in 2012
Districts labeled this color indicate the districts that were pushed into most competitive based on heavily redrawn congressional districts
Most competitive districts for 2014 elections
Congressional district Battleground label Cook PVI Fairvote (Projected D%) Margin of Victory (MOV) in 2012 2012 Presidential MOV % 2008 Presidential MOV % Incumbent years in office 2012 House winner Campaign contributions difference Cost per vote for winner in 2012
Arizona's 1st Battleground D R+4 48% 3.6 -2.5 -3.2 0 Democratic 61.38% $19.13
Arizona's 2nd Battleground D R+3 50.9% 0.8 -1.5 -0.9 0 Democratic 65.57% $18.85
Arizona's 9th Battleground D R+1 51% 4.1 ✓4.5 ✓3.9 0 Democratic 64.44% $17.78
California's 7th Battleground D EVEN 51.4% 3.4 ✓4 ✓5 0 Democratic 57.34% $25.72
California's 21st Battleground R D+2 50.9% 15.5 ✓11.1 ✓6 0 Republican 91.39% $19.59
California's 36th Battleground D R+1 51.2% 5.9 ✓3.2 ✓3 0 Democratic 46.67% $17.94
California's 52nd Battleground D D+2 52.3% 2.4 ✓6.4 ✓12 0 Democratic 62.23% $28.93
Colorado's 6th Battleground R D+1 45.1% 2 ✓5.1 ✓8.7 4 Republican 66.81% $20.99
Florida's 18th Battleground D R+3 47.7% 0.6 -4.1 ✓3.1 0 Democratic 19.70% $28.58
Florida's 26th Battleground D R+1 53.1% 10.6 ✓6.7 -0.4 0 Democratic 69.59% $10.28
Illinois' 12th Battleground D EVEN 50.1% 8.9 ✓1.5 ✓11.1 0 Democratic 46.64% $7.52
Illinois' 13th Battleground R EVEN 47.2% 0.3 -0.3 ✓11 0 Republican 51.38% $10.22
Michigan's 1st Battleground R R+5 45.1% 0.5 -8.3 ✓1.3 2 Republican 59.74% $13.30
Minnesota's 8th Battleground D D+1 52.4% 8.9 ✓5.5 ✓8.6 0 Democratic 34.52% $6.52
Nevada's 3rd Battleground R EVEN 44.2% 7.5 ✓0.8 ✓8.9 2 Republican 61.24% $17.66
New Hampshire's 1st Battleground D R+1 50.4% 3.8 ✓1.6 ✓6.4 0 Democratic 47.47% $10.02
New Jersey's 2nd Battleground R D+1 40.2% 17.4 ✓8.1 ✓7.7 18 Republican 96.60% $9.40
New Jersey's 3rd Battleground R R+1 44.8% 8.9 ✓4.6 ✓3.4 2 Republican 66.17% $11.94
New York's 1st Battleground D R+2 51.3% 4.6 ✓0.5 ✓3 10 Democratic 54.54% $18.81
New York's 11th Battleground R R+2 46.1% 5 ✓4.3 -3 2 Republican 70.91% $21.96
New York's 18th Battleground D EVEN 51.5% 3.7 ✓4.3 ✓5 0 Democratic 40.94% $15.69
New York's 21st Battleground D EVEN 51.5% 1.9 ✓6.1 ✓5 4 Democratic 50.05% $15.54
New York's 23rd Battleground R R+3 45.6% 3.6 -1.2 ✓1 3 Republican 71.76% $15.31
Texas' 23rd Battleground D R+3 48.7% 4.8 -2.6 ✓1 0 Democratic 39.93% $18.65
Virginia's 2nd Battleground R R+2 43.4% 7.7 ✓1.5 ✓1.7 2 Republican 54.38% $14.42
West Virginia's 3rd Battleground D R+14 50.4% 7.1 -32.2 -13.4 20 Democratic 69.55% $13.26
  • Cook's PVI is Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index.[5]
  • FairVote's %D is FairVote.org's 2014 congressional election projections.[6]
  • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

Outside race ratings

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for U.S. Senate and U.S. House (competitive only) elections. The races detailed below were those considered competitive. There were six possible designations.

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- 2014 U.S. House Competitive Districts
Month Likely D Lean D D Tossup R Tossup Lean R Likely R Total D Total R Total Competitive races
August 8, 2013[7] 14 16 8 1 11 17 28 29 57
September 5, 2013[8] 14 15 9 1 11 17 38 29 67
October 21, 2013[9] 14 15 9 1 11 17 36 34 70
October 30, 2013[10] 12 15 10 2 16 16 37 34 71
December 18, 2013[11] 14 14 10 4 15 15 38 34 72
January 7, 2014[12] 14 15 10 4 16 16 39 36 75
January 15, 2014[13] 14 14 11 4 16 18 39 38 77
February 13, 2014[14] 14 13 11 4 16 18 38 38 76
March 13, 2014[15] 15 13 11 3 16 18 39 37 76
April 4, 2014[16] 15 13 11 3 17 19 39 39 78
June 26, 2014[17] 16 14 11 2 16 18 41 36 77
August 8, 2014[18] 15 13 13 3 9 17 41 29 70
September 19, 2014[19] 14 13 11 4 8 18 38 30 68
October 22, 2014[20] 11 14 13 5 6 15 38 26 64

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Each month the Crystal Ball released race ratings for U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[21]

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. House
Month Likely D Lean D D Tossup R Tossup Lean R Likely R Total D Total R Total Competitive races
October 23, 2013[22] 7 20 5 3 15 12 32 30 62
December 17, 2013[23] 8 19 5 6 14 14 32 34 66
January 7, 2014[24] 8 19 5 7 14 14 32 35 67
March 12, 2014[25] 10 15 7 5 14 15 32 34 66
March 31, 2014[26] 10 15 7 5 15 16 32 36 68
August 6, 2014[27] 9 13 10 3 11 16 32 30 62


Democratic and Republican targets

DCCC Frontline Program

The DCCC's Frontline Program was designed to help vulnerable incumbents win re-election. The following table lists the members of the Frontline Program in 2014.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Frontline Program
District Incumbent
Arizona's 2nd District Ron Barber
Georgia's 12th District John Barrow
California's 7th District Ami Bera
New York's 1st District Tim Bishop
California's 26th District Julia Brownley
Illinois' 17th District Cheri Bustos
California's 24th District Lois Capps
Washington's 1st District Suzan DelBene
Illinois' 12th District Bill Enyart
Connecticut's 5th District Elizabeth Esty
Texas' 23rd District Pete Gallego
Florida's 26th District Joe Garcia
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick
New Hampshire's 2nd District Ann McLane Kuster
New York's 18th District Sean Patrick Maloney
New York's 24th District Dan Maffei
Utah's 4th District Jim Matheson
North Carolina's 7th District Mike McIntyre
Florida's 18th District Patrick Murphy
New York's 21st District Bill Owens
California's 52nd District Scott Peters
California's 36th District Raul Ruiz
Illinois' 10th District Brad Schneider
New Hampshire's 1st District Carol Shea-Porter
Arizona's 9th District Kyrsten Sinema
Massachusetts' 6th District John Tierney
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall

DCCC Jumpstart Program

The DCCC's Jumpstart Program provided early support to candidates in order to cultivate support in the beginning stages of the 2014 election cycle.[28]

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jumpstart Program
District Challenger Incumbent
California's 10th District Michael Eggman Jeff Denham
California's 31st District Pete Aguilar Gary Miller
Colorado's 6th District Andrew Romanoff Mike Coffman
Florida's 2nd District Gwen Graham Steve Southerland
Illinois' 13th District Ann Callis Rodney Davis
Iowa's 3rd District Staci Appel Tom Latham
Michigan's 1st District Jerry Cannon Dan Benishek
Michigan's 7th District Pam Byrnes Tim Walberg
Montana's at-large District John Lewis Max Baucus
Nevada's 3rd District Erin Bilbray-Kohn Joe Heck
New Mexico's 2nd District Roxanne Lara Steve Pearce
New York's 11th District Domenic Recchia Michael Grimm
New York's 23rd District Martha Robertson Tom Reed
Ohio's 6th District Jennifer Garrison Bill Johnson
Pennsylvania's 8th District Kevin Strouse Michael Fitzpatrick
Virginia's 2nd District Suzanne Patrick Scott Rigell

NRCC Patriot Program

The NRCC's Patriot Program was the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and was designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the members of the Patriot Program in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program
District Incumbent
Michigan's 1st District Dan Benishek
Colorado's 6th District Mike Coffman
Illinois' 13th District Rodney Davis
California's 10th District Jeff Denham
Pennsylvania's 8th District Michael G. Fitzpatrick
New York's 19th District Chris Gibson
New York's 11th District Mike Grimm
Nevada's 3rd District Joe Heck
Ohio's 6th District Bill Johnson
Florida's 13th District David Jolly
Ohio's 14th District David Joyce
New York's 23rd District Tom Reed
Virginia's 2nd District Scott Rigell
Florida's 2nd District Steve Southerland II
California's 21st District David G. Valadao
Michigan's 7th District Tim Walberg
Indiana's 2nd District Jackie Walorski

NRCC targets

The following Democratic incumbents were targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee, Targeted incumbents
District Targeted incumbent November 4 Results
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Pending
Arizona's 2nd District Ron Barber Pending
Georgia's 12th District John Barrow Pending
Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson Pending
North Carolina's 7th District Mike McIntyre Pending
Utah's 4th District Jim Matheson Pending
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall Pending
"Drive to 245"

In an attempt to raise fundraising numbers during an election year where Republicans were widely expected to retain control of the House, the NRCC launched the "Drive to 245" campaign in May 2014. Reaching 245 seats in the House would have required a net gain of 12 seats and would have been one of the largest party majorities in the last century. Depending on who wins the remaining uncalled races, it is possible Republicans will reach 245 seats for the 114th Congress.[29]

Nick Rahall

In September 2013, the NRCC issued a press release in response to Rahall, one of the organization's main targets in 2014, mistaking an umbrella for a lump of coal during a press conference. The press release stated:

"But Barack Obama, the EPA, and Nick Rahall aren’t waging a war on umbrellas – they are waging a war on coal. And yesterday, Bloomberg reported a new front opening in that war – the EPA is set to issue a rule that will completely halt the development of new coal-fueled plants by requiring they meet unachievable carbon standards."[30]

DCCC & NRCC fundraising

April 2014

In the month of April 2014, the NRCC reported raising $4.1 million, falling short of the $7.1 million the DCCC raised. The NRCC ended the month with $32.3 million cash in the bank, while the DCCC had $43.5 on hand.

The DCCC brought in over $20 million more than the NRCC overall during this election cycle.[31]

December 2013

As of December 2, 2013, the NRCC reported raising $52,404,530 and spending $35,697,047, leaving it with $18,242,094 cash on hand.[32] Comparatively, the DCCC reported raising $65,202,181 and spending $41,423,695, leaving it with $25,266,707 cash on hand.[33]

September 2013

The DCCC raised $8.4 million in September compared to the $5.3 million the NRCC raised during the same period. This brought the total raised for 2013 through the third quarter to $58.2 million for the DCCC compared to the NRCC's $42.6 million. As for cash on hand, the DCCC still had an edge: $21.6 million to NRCC's $15.7 million.[34]

August 2013

According to an Open Secrets report on FEC filings released on August 13, 2013, the DCCC had raised $40.8 million to the NRCC's $34.3 million.[35]

July 2013

As of July 2013, the DCCC had outraised the NRCC by $6.5 million.[36]

Media mentions

Across the country, media and experts published stories that chronicled the incumbents who were in danger of losing their bid for re-election. Some of those incumbents mentioned included:

"The Monkey Cage"

In December 2013, John Sides' column, "The Monkey Cage," a blog published by The Washington Post, released his first predictions for the 2014 elections. Sides and Eric McGhee, a political scientist, developed a forecasting model that uses numerous factors, including: presidential popularity, economic growth and whether it is a presidential or midterm election cycle.

  • September 2014:[38]
    • Democrats would win 191 seats, for a loss of ten seats.
  • December 2013:[39]
    • Democrats would win approximately 48 percent of the popular vote for the House.
    • Democrats would win 196 seats, for a loss of five seats.

Primary elections

See also: At least 52 new members will walk the halls of the U.S. Congress in 2015

Only four U.S. Representatives and no U.S. Senators were defeated in their primaries during the 2014 election cycle. One article from National Journal suggests that, despite the small number of defeats, incumbents have been gradually losing their advantage. The article states, "Fewer and fewer incumbents are running unopposed each election, and the rate of incumbents finishing under 60 or 70 percent in their primaries has more than doubled in recent elections."[40] Studies on the competitiveness of U.S. House primaries further support this conclusion. According to a 2013 Ballotpedia study on contested primaries, in the four congressional elections between 2004 and 2010, an average of only 26.3 percent of incumbents faced primary challengers. By 2012, this percentage had almost doubled, with 51.40 percent of incumbents facing primary challengers.

Incumbents defeated in 2014 primary elections

Republican Party Ralph Hall

Ralph Hall.jpg

Name: Ralph Hall (R-TX)
Office: U.S. Representative for Texas' 4th Congressional District
Years in office: 1981-present
2014 election: Texas' 4th Congressional District elections, 2014
Defeated by: John Ratcliffe

Ralph Hall was defeated by John Ratcliffe in a runoff primary on May 27, 2014, after failing to secure 50 percent of the vote in the initial Republican primary on March 4. Hall, 91, is the oldest U.S. Representative in history, and one of only two remaining World War II veterans in Congress.[41] Hall had previously run as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party in 2004.[42] Ratcliffe, Hall's tea party-backed challenger, formerly served as the mayor of Heath, Texas, as a U.S. Attorney and as the Chief of Anti-Terrorism and National Security for the Eastern District of Texas.[43] Although Ratcliffe trailed by 16.6 percent in the Republican primary, he jumped ahead in the runoff, defeating Hall by a 5.6 percent margin of victory.[44] In addition to large personal loans to his campaign, Ratcliffe had support from conservative groups such as Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund.[45] Hall had promised to make 2014 his last term in office, and he stated regarding his loss, "I’m not hurt about it. I’m not really terribly surprised about it, and I’m not happy about it. I’m going to keep on doing my job and coming home and visiting people that I love."[46]


U.S. House, Texas District 4 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRalph Hall Incumbent 45.4% 29,848
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Ratcliffe 28.8% 18,917
Lou Gigliotti 16.1% 10,601
John Stacy 4.3% 2,812
Brent Lawson 3.5% 2,290
Tony Arterburn 1.9% 1,252
Total Votes 65,720
Source: Texas Secretary of State
U.S. House, Texas District 4 Runoff Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Ratcliffe 52.8% 22,271
Ralph Hall Incumbent 47.2% 19,899
Total Votes 42,170
Source: Texas Secretary of State Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.


Republican Party Eric Cantor

Eric Cantor.JPG

Name: Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Office: U.S. Representative for Virginia's 7th Congressional District
Years in office: 2001-2014
2014 election: Virginia's 7th Congressional District elections, 2014
Defeated by: David Brat

Eric Cantor's loss to David Brat in the Republican primary on June 10, 2014, was the biggest and most shocking upset of the 2014 primary season, making Cantor the first-ever sitting House Majority Leader to lose a primary bid.[47] Leading up to the election, Cantor had a significant financial advantage, having spent around $1 million in the weeks prior to the primary. Brat, in contrast, had raised only about $100,000 during his entire primary campaign.[48] Brat, an economics professor at Randolph-Macon College, had never before run for public office, and he did not receive any donations from political action committees (PACs).[49] Though he had a disadvantage in these areas, as well as name recognition, Brat attributed his success to his grassroots efforts and spending large amounts of time knocking on doors and talking with constituents. In an interview with Sean Hannity of Fox News, Brat explained, "The good news is dollars don't vote, people do."[50]

Cantor stepped down from his position as House Majority Leader on July 31, 2014, and resigned from the U.S. House of Representatives on August 18, 2014. Kevin McCarthy of California took over the position of House Majority Leader after Cantor's resignation.[51]


U.S. House, Virginia District 7 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Brat 55.5% 36,110
Eric Cantor Incumbent 44.5% 28,898
Total Votes 65,008
Source: Results via Associated Press


Republican Party Kerry Bentivolio

Kerry Bentivolio.jpg

Name: Kerry Bentivolio (R-MI)
Office: U.S. Representative for Michigan's 11th Congressional District
Years in office: 2013-present
2014 election: Michigan's 11th Congressional District elections, 2014
Defeated by: Dave Trott

Of the four incumbents who were defeated in primaries in 2014, Kerry Bentivolio lost by the widest margin. Bentivolio lost to Dave Trott in the Republican primary on August 5, 2014, by a margin of 32.6 percent.[52] While it was common in the 2014 Republican primaries to see a tea party-backed challenger taking on the Republican "establishment" incumbent, Michigan's 11th District turned this narrative on its head. Bentivolio's spokesman explained the race from the incumbent's perspective, saying, "This is really a race about the establishment versus the tea party. It just so happens that the incumbent is the member of the tea party who is being targeted by a wealthy foreclosure attorney who simply wants to be a congressman."[53] Bentivolio had received many negative headlines throughout his term. He had often been referred to as an "accidental" congressman, referring to his 2012 election, when he easily won the Republican nomination after incumbent Thaddeus McCotter submitted invalid signatures and chose to resign. Bentivolio was also known for being a reindeer farmer and Santa Claus impersonator.[54]


U.S. House, Michigan District 11 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Kerry Bentivolio Incumbent 33.6% 21,254
Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Trott 66.4% 42,008
Total Votes 63,262
Source: Michigan Secretary of State


Democratic Party John Tierney

John F Tierney.jpg

Name: John Tierney (D-MA)
Office: U.S. Representative for Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District
Years in office: 1997-present
2014 election: Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District elections, 2014
Defeated by: Seth Moulton

John Tierney was the only Democratic congressman to lose his primary election in 2014. On September 9, 2014, Seth Moulton, a former Marine and a veteran of the Iraq War, defeated Tierney by 7.9 percent, making Tierney the fourth and final incumbent to be defeated in the 2014 primary election season.[55] Tierney was a vulnerable incumbent in 2012 and won re-election by a mere 1.1 percent margin of victory against Republican Richard Tisei, who ran again in 2014.[56] In 2011, Tierney's wife was involved in a scandal, when she served time in jail for "aiding and abetting the filing of false tax returns" for her brother, Robert Eremian, who was accused of running an illegal gambling business.[57]

Both Tierney and Moulton ran well-financed campaigns, raising $1.9 million and $1.6 million, respectively.[58] Tierney led in the Democratic primary polls, and had support from influential Democrats, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi from California.[59]

Five primaries to watch

Politico published a list of the five primaries to watch in 2014. Of their five predictions, only one of the incumbents (Rep. John Tierney) was defeated.[60]

Results: Simpson defeated Smith by over 23 percentage points.
U.S. House, Idaho District 2 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMike Simpson Incumbent 61.6% 48,632
Bryan Smith 38.4% 30,263
Total Votes 78,895
Source: Idaho Secretary of State
Results: Despite the high profile endorsements, Shuster won by over 15 percentage points.
U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 9 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBill Shuster Incumbent 52.8% 24,106
Art Halvorson 34.5% 15,761
Travis Schooley 12.7% 5,802
Total Votes 45,669
Source: Results via Associated Press
Results: The predictions were correct. The race came down to the two Democratic front runners. In California's blanket primary system, both Ro Khanna and Rep. Mike Honda advanced to the general election.
U.S. House, California District 17 Primary, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMike Honda Incumbent 48.2% 43,607
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRo Khanna 28% 25,384
     Republican Vanila Singh 17% 15,359
     Republican Joel Vanlandingham 6.8% 6,154
Total Votes 90,504
Source: California Secretary of State
Results: In what truly was a competitive race, DesJarlais won by just over 30 votes.
U.S. House, Tennessee District 4 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngScott DesJarlais Incumbent 44.9% 34,793
Jim Tracy 44.8% 34,755
John Anderson 5.9% 4,592
Steve Lane 1.9% 1,483
David Tate 1.2% 938
Michael Warden 0.9% 659
Oluyomi Faparusi 0.4% 284
Total Votes 77,504
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State
Results: Tierney was defeated in the primary by Seth Moulton.
U.S. House, Massachusetts District 6 Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSeth Moulton 50.8% 36,575
John Tierney Incumbent 40.1% 28,915
Marisa DeFranco 6% 4,293
John Devine 2.1% 1,527
John Gutta 1% 691
All others 0% 36
Total Votes 72,037
Source: Massachusetts Elections Division


Issues in 2014

[edit]

Government shutdown

See also United States budget debate, 2013

Beginning in August 2013, House and Senate members began discussing the possibility of a government shutdown over the funding of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). On September 20, Republicans passed a spending bill in the House that funded the government until December 2013, but stripped funding from Obamacare. When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced that the Senate would hold a procedural vote on Wednesday, September 24, many senators began to announce their positions on voting against a cloture, the motion to end debate on a bill. After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) gave a marathon speech, the motion for cloture was accepted and Reid was able to strip the Obamacare defunding language contained in the Republican House members' continuing resolution (CR).

Following the successful cloture vote and the Senate subsequently sending a clean continuing resolution back to the House, the two chambers began a high-stakes game of hot potato. By September 30, the House had voted and sent three resolutions to the Senate that all were struck down. The Senate then sent back a clean resolution stripped of any healthcare defunding language. With Obamacare being the issue-at-hand, Congress was unable to agree on whether a resolution would fund the landmark healthcare law.[61]

In the midst of the government shutdown in October 2013, talks began regarding the need to increase the debt ceiling.[62][63] Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) drafted a proposal that would have addressed both the budget shutdown, through the repeal of the medical device tax, and a plan to increase the debt ceiling through January 2014. Collins explained, "I’m hearing from many Democrats that if there were a way to deal somehow with the debt limit as well as part of this plan that that would be helpful. And obviously time is of the essence."[64] Although her plan was ultimately rejected by Senate Democrats, her framework began a bipartisan effort to draft a resolution. Ultimately, Sens. Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell were able to propose a plan on October 16.[65]

A deal was reached late on October 16, just hours before the debt ceiling deadline. The government reopened.

Polling during the shutdown

Congressional approval rating
Poll Total approve Total disapproveMargin of ErrorSample Size
The Economist/YouGov (September 21-23, 2013)
9%72%+/-5.1690
CBS/New York Times (September 19-23, 2013)
14%80%+/-31,014
CNN/ORC (September 27-29, 2013)
10%87%+/-3.5803
Gallup (October 3-6, 2013)
11%85%+/-41,028
AP-GfK (October 3-7, 2013)
5%83%+/-3.41,227
AVERAGES 9.8% 81.4% +/-3.8 952.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Approval of own congressmen

During the shutdown, Americans' disapproval rating of their own congressmen reached new a new high, with almost as many people stating disapproval of their member (43%) to approval (44%). The Gallup poll concluded:

"While members of Congress may continue to argue that problems with the image of the body as a whole is not their fault, and that they are doing nothing more than faithfully representing their particular constituents, it is clear that even their own constituents are less positive about the job they are doing than they were in the past."

For senators up for re-election in 2014, this was the first election since the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. This may have been problematic for Democratic senators who voted in favor of the bill in states where it was no longer popular. Among these senators included:

[66]

Sen. Lee letter

In July 2013, Lee authored a letter, which was signed by 14 Republican senators, which promised a government shutdown unless the Affordable Care Act was defunded. The senators up for re-election in 2014 who signed the letter were:

Healthcare.gov rollout

See also: Healthcare.gov website rollout

The open enrollment period ended on March 31, 2014. The penalty, payable to the federal government, for not being enrolled in a health insurance plan by March 31 was either $95 or 1 percent of income, whichever was greater.[67] The White House stated anyone selecting a plan before the deadline would not be subject to the penalty.[68] In March 2014, however, the administration announced that uninsured people were allowed to enroll in plans into April as long as they had a plan selected on the website by March 31.[69]

The rollout date was met with high demand for the website, both by those seeking insurance and those curious to see how the site worked. Attempts to use the website resulted in errors, including:

  • Error messages while creating an account and trying to log in
  • Data transfer problems from the exchange to healthcare providers
  • Errors in price quotes when not logged in
  • Lack of ability to sign up directly through individual insurance providers

In an October 30, 2013, hearing before the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius stated, "[h]old me accountable for the debacle. I’m responsible."[70]

The first official report from the Obama administration was released November 13, 2013, covering October enrollment numbers. The report stated 26,794 users completed enrollment through the Healthcare.gov federal exchange. Another 79,391 users were able to enroll in the 15 state exchanges, bringing the total enrollment to 106,185 in October. Prior to rollout, the administration estimated 500,000 would sign up in the first month.[71][72]

On November 22, 2013, the Obama administration announced an eight-day extension on completing applications for coverage starting January 1, 2014. The deadline to complete the application was moved from December 15 to December 23, 2013. Additionally, the 2014 open enrollment period was pushed back from the original October 15 start date to November 15, 2014, just after midterm elections.[73] On November 25, 2013, the administration announced the Small Business Health Options Program (SHOP) would be delayed by one year. The program was supposed to be rolled out in October 2013 but was delayed until November 2014. Employers seeking the tax credit before the federal exchange rolls out SHOP in 2014 must use an insurance broker to sign up for eligible plans. The small business program delay did not impact states with state-run exchanges.[74]

On April 10, 2014, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius resigned from her post as a result of the troubled rollout of Obamacare.[75]

Senate Conservative Fund targets

The Senate Conservative Fund targeted Sens. Isakson (R-GA), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN) and Burr (R-NC) in August 2013 with two weeks of radio ads designed to push Senate Republicans to support Utah's Mike Lee's effort to defund Obamacare.[76]

See also: ISIS insurgency in Iraq and Syria

Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle were in disagreement over the need to pass congressional approval of the administration's air strikes in Iraq as well as any future strikes on ISIS. Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Carl Levin (D-MI) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) each stated on September 8, 2014, that gaining congressional approval was not necessary for the actions taken by President Barack Obama, with Levin claiming, "I think the president has an abundant amount of authority to conduct operations. It would be good to have Congress on board. I don’t think the War Powers Act is constitutional. If Congress doesn’t like what he’s doing, we can always cut the money off." Members such as Tim Kaine (D-VA), Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Rand Paul (D-KY) disagreed and continued to push for a vote. Paul argued, "It would show a disregard for the Constitution and for the history of our country."[77]

Congressional leadership did not want to take quick action, bringing a vote to the floor, with one Republican aide stating, "We want to wait and see what he’s going to say to the four leaders and what he’s going to say to the nation. How he lays out his strategy will determine how our guys and members of Congress respond."[78] Reid backed up that sentiment, saying, "Tomorrow the president is addressing the nation. That doesn’t happen very often. On Thursday afternoon we’re having a briefing here from the administration on what’s going on in the Middle East. I’m going to wait and get the facts before I jump off into something that you read on the Internet someplace."[79]

While some members in tighter re-election campaigns were wary of a vote prior to the November elections, Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) came out strongly in favor of the vote, even going so far as threatening to use a procedural workaround if Republican Majority Leader John Boehner did not put a vote on the calendar. McGovern defended his threat, explaining, "We have boots on the ground, even though everybody says we don't want any boots on the ground. We're doing more than just protecting U.S. personnel on the ground. And when I read the newspapers, we're talking about a multi-year commitment. So there's a role for Congress in this, and we need to make sure that we don't … shirk our constitutional responsibility. And I think most people feel that way."[80]

See also: United States Farm Bill 2013

The Senate passed a $1 trillion farm bill in June 2013 to fund both food stamps and farmer subsidies. States heavy in agriculture, including ones that will be competitive in 2014, may turn more favorably to Democratic candidates due to Republican opposition of the bill. The vote was 66-27, with 25 of the 27 nay votes being from Republicans. The two Democratic senators to vote against the bill were Jack Reed (RI) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI)

The comprehensive bill failed in the House due largely in part to the votes of eight Democratic House members who joined the Republican majority to vote down the measure.[81] Reps. Collin Peterson, John Barrow, Sanford Bishop, Cheri Bustos, Sean Maloney, Mike McIntyre, Bill Owens and Tim Walz were the eight Democratic members who voted to reject the bill.[81] According to analysis by OpenSecrets.org, many of these Democratic members received significant political contributions from agricultural organizations that benefit from crop insurance subsidies.[81]

Upon arrival at the House, the bill was altered by focusing solely on the farm programs and did not include the food stamp program, which will be voted on later. The House and Senate will now need to draft a final bill through conference committee.[82]

2012 Election summary

In a February 2013 article in the Washington Post, political scientists John Sides and Eric McGhee argued that redistricting was not solely responsible for Republicans maintaining control of the U.S. House in 2012. By comparing the 2012 election to prior elections, the authors maintained that additional factors like incumbency and the increasingly concentrated nature of Democratic votes in urban areas contributed to the outcome.[83]

Margin of victory analysis

There were a total of 435 seats up for election in 2012. The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. Some general facts:

  • 30 races (6.9 percent) had a margin of victory of less than 5 percent. Of those 30 races, 18 were Democratic winners while 12 were Republican.
  • 33 races (7.6 percent) had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. Of those 33 races, 15 were Democratic winners while 18 were Republican.
  • 87 races (20 percent) had a margin of victory between 10 and 20 percent. Of those 87 races, 23 were Democratic winners while 64 were Republican.
  • 285 races (65.5 percent) had a margin of victory of greater than 20 percent. Of those 285 races, 145 were Democratic winners while 140 were Republican.
  • The fewest votes were in Texas' 29th District, with only 95,611 total votes. Incumbent Gene Green (D) faced two third-party candidates in the general election.
  • The most votes were in Montana, with 479,740 votes cast. Montana has a total population of 998,199 -- which is roughly 250,000 above the average district size in states without single districts. Because Montana has only one district for the whole state, its voters per district is higher than the rest of the country. The average size of each district is 709,000. The second-most votes cast came in Colorado's 2nd District, with 421,580 total votes.
  • The smallest margin of victory, was North Carolina's 7th District, where incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre defeated David Rouzer (R) by 0.2 percent (654 votes).
  • The largest margin of victory where both major parties fielded a general election candidate was in New York's 15th District, where incumbent Democrat Jose Serrano defeated Frank Della Valle (R) by 83%.
  • The average margin of victory of all congressional districts was 31.85%, meaning that on average the winner of each race received nearly twice as many votes as the top opponent. Average MOV for Democratic winners was 35.7%, while the average for Republicans was 28.6%.
  • The average number of votes cast per district was 281,917, yielding an average voter turnout of 39.76%.

See also

References

  1. New Republic, "Democrats Can Overcome Their Midterm Fatalism—If They Get Over Themselves", April 29, 2014
  2. NCB News, "Poll: Slight Improvements But Tough Terrain Ahead for Democrats", April 29, 2014
  3. Fox News, "Poll: 2014 looks worse for Dems than 2010", April 29, 2014
  4. Salon.com, "The House GOP can’t be beat: It’s worse than gerrymandering," January 13, 2013
  5. The Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2014 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," accessed November 5, 2013
  6. FairVote, "FairVote Releases Projections for the 2014 Congressional Elections," accessed November 5, 2013
  7. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed August 9, 2013
  8. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed September 18, 2013
  9. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed October 21, 2013
  10. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed October 30, 2013
  11. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed December 18, 2013
  12. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed January 7, 2014
  13. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed January 15, 2014
  14. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed February 14, 2014
  15. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed March 13, 2014
  16. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed April 4, 2014
  17. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed August 14, 2014
  18. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed August 14, 2014
  19. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed October 24, 2014
  20. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed October 24, 2014
  21. Center for Politics, "Crystal Ball," accessed November 5, 2013
  22. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed on November 5, 2013
  23. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed on December 17, 2013
  24. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed on January 7, 2014
  25. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed on March 12, 2014
  26. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed on March 31, 2014
  27. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," August 6, 2014
  28. Roll Call;, "Democrats Launch New Program for House Recruits," May 9, 2013
  29. Politico, "NRCC aims for 245 House seats," accessed May 21, 2014
  30. NRCC.org, "Nick Rahall's War on Umbrellas," September 12, 2013
  31. The Hill, "DCCC outraises NRCC by $3M in April," May 20, 2014
  32. OpenSecrets, "National Republican Congressional Cmte 2014 election cycle," accessed December 3, 2013
  33. OpenSecrets, "Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte 2014 election cycle," accessed December 3, 2013
  34. The Washington Post, "Democrats sweep September fundraising," accessed October 21, 2013
  35. OpenSecrets, "Parties," accessed August 13, 2013
  36. Politico, "DCCC memo rallies Dems for 2014," August 1, 2013
  37. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named long
  38. The Washington Post, "Elections Lab 2014," accessed September 26, 2014
  39. The Washington Post, "There is no wave coming in the 2014 election," accessed December 10, 2013
  40. National Journal, "From Tactical Spending to Amazing Ads, Here Are the Lessons of the 2014 Primaries," accessed September 15, 2014
  41. The Washington Post, "Rep. Ralph Hall defeated by John Ratcliffe," accessed September 10, 2014
  42. The Washington Times, "Rep. Hall of Texas switches from Democrat to Republican," accessed September 11, 2014
  43. Ratcliffe for Congress, "John’s Story," accessed September 11, 2014
  44. Texas Secretary of State, "Election History," accessed September 11, 2014
  45. Politico, "Ralph Hall loses Texas GOP runoff," accessed September 11, 2014
  46. The Dallas Morning News, "Oldest congressman, Ralph Hall, 91, ousted by John Ratcliffe," accessed September 11, 2014
  47. Roll Call, "Eric Cantor Loses Primary in Massive Upset," accessed September 11, 2014
  48. Politico, "Cantor loses," accessed September 11, 2014
  49. Politico, "How Big Money failed to rescue Eric Cantor," accessed September 11, 2014
  50. The Huffington Post, "Dave Brat Calls Primary Win Over Eric Cantor 'A Miracle'," accessed September 11, 2014
  51. Richmond Times-Dispatch, "Cantor to resign from Congress Aug. 18," accessed September 11, 2014
  52. Associated Press, "Michigan - Summary Vote Results," accessed September 11, 2014
  53. Politico, "Dave Trott topples Bentivolio in Michigan race," accessed September 11, 2014
  54. The Huffington Post, "Kerry Bentivolio, 'Accidental Congressman,' Loses Primary To Romney-Backed David Trott," accessed September 11, 2014
  55. Politico, "2014 Massachusetts House Primaries Results," accessed September 11, 2014
  56. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, "Return of Votes For Massachusetts State Election, November 6, 2012," accessed September 11, 2014
  57. Roll Call, "Tierney’s Wife Sentenced to Jail Time," accessed September 11, 2014
  58. The Huffington Post, "John Tierney Concedes Democratic Primary To Seth Moulton," accessed September 11, 2014
  59. The Washington Post, "Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.) concedes to primary challenger," accessed September 11, 2014
  60. Politico, "5 House primaries to watch," accessed August 8, 2013
  61. Reuters, "U.S. Senate Republicans start closing ranks on spending bill," accessed September 24, 2013
  62. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named cb
  63. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named go
  64. Politico, "Susan Collins floating fiscal deal," accessed October 10, 2013
  65. Politico, "How Collins budget plan collapsed," accessed October 14, 2013
  66. Senate.gov, "U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 111th Congress - 1st Session," accessed July 15, 2013
  67. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named mccardle
  68. NBC News, "Obama administration clarifies dates related to health care rollout," October 23, 2013 (timed out)
  69. Fox News, "Surprise, surprise -- ObamaCare deadline extended yet again," March 26, 2014
  70. Washington Post, "Sebelius on health-care law rollout: 'Hold me accountable for the debacle. I'm responsible.'," October 31, 2013
  71. National Journal, "It's Official: Obamacare Enrollment Is Super Low," November 13, 2013
  72. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named Octofficialreport
  73. Fox News, "HHS announces small extension for ObamaCare sign-up, bigger delay next year," November 22, 2013
  74. Washington Post, "Obamacare’s online SHOP enrollment delayed by one year," November 27, 2013
  75. New York Times, "Health Secretary Resigns After Woes of HealthCare.gov," April 10, 2014
  76. The Hill, "Senate Conservatives Fund targets Isakson with latest 'defund ObamaCare' ad," August 22, 2013
  77. The Hill, "ISIS vote divides Senate," September 8, 2014
  78. The Hill, "Leadership hoping to avoid vote on ISIS," September 9, 2014
  79. The Hill, "Reid won’t ‘rush’ ISIS vote in Senate," September 9, 2014
  80. The Hill, "House Dem eyes strategy to force ISIS vote," September 9, 2014
  81. 81.0 81.1 81.2 Open Secrets, "Agribusiness and the Farm Bill: Wayward Dems Benefit from Contributions" accessed July 19, 2013
  82. USA Today, "House passes farm bill; strips out food-stamp program," accessed July 15, 2013
  83. The Washington Post, "Redistricting didn’t win Republicans the House," February 17, 2013