United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2012

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2012 U.S. House Elections in Arizona

Primary Date
August 28, 2012

Partisan breakdownCandidates

Arizona District Pages
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Arizona.png
The 2012 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Arizona took place on November 6, 2012. Voters elected nine candidates to serve in the U.S. House, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
May 30, 2012
August 28, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Arizona's primary system is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[1]

Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by July 30. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[2]

See also: Arizona elections, 2012


According to the New York Times race ratings in October 2012, three of the nine districts were considered to be in play. Those were the 1st, 2nd and 9th districts.[3]

The Center for Voting and Democracy (Fairvote) projected that Democrats would win one district while Republicans would win four seats. It did not make a projection for the remaining four districts.[4]

Primary competitiveness

See also: National contested primary average during the 2012 U.S. congressional elections

Arizona had the 10th most competitive congressional primaries in 2012, with 83.33% of major party primaries having been contested (15 out of 18). The national average was 54.31%.

Seven U.S. House incumbents sought re-election in Arizona in 2012. All of those seven (100%) faced a primary challenger. Nationwide, 200 out of the 386 incumbents seeking re-election faced a primary challenger (51.81%).

Partisan breakdown

Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party held five of the eight Congressional seats from Arizona. However, the state gained one seat after the 2010 census and elected nine representatives.

Members of the U.S. House from Arizona -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2012 After the 2012 Election
     Democratic Party 3 5
     Republican Party 5 4
Total 8 9

Incumbents

Heading into the 2012 election, the incumbents for the eight congressional districts were:

Name Party District
Benjamin Quayle Ends.png Republican 3
David Schweikert Ends.png Republican 5
Ed Pastor Electiondot.png Democratic 4
Jeff Flake Ends.png Republican 6
Paul Gosar Ends.png Republican 1
Raul Grijalva Electiondot.png Democratic 7
Ron Barber Electiondot.png Democratic 8
Trent Franks Ends.png Republican 2

Margin of victory for winners

There were a total of 9 seats up for election in 2012 in Arizona. The following table shows the margin of victory for each district winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%.

District Winner Margin of Victory Total Vote Top Opponent
Arizona, District 1 Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick 3.6% 251,595 Jonathon Paton
Arizona, District 2 Democratic Party Ron Barber 0.8% 292,279 Martha McSally
Arizona, District 3 Democratic Party Raul Grijalva 21.2% 168,698 Gabriela Saucedo Mercer
Arizona, District 4 Republican Party Paul Gosar 38.5% 243,760 Johnnie Robinson
Arizona, District 5 Republican Party Matt Salmon 34.4% 273,059 Spencer Morgan
Arizona, District 6 Republican Party David Schweikert 28% 293,177 Matt Jette
Arizona, District 7 Democratic Party Ed Pastor 63.5% 127,827 Joe Cobb
Arizona, District 8 Republican Party Trent Franks 28.3% 272,791 Gene Scharer
Arizona, District 9 Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema 4.1% 250,141 Vernon B. Parker

FairVote Democracy Study

This is a map of the congressional districts of Arizona before and after the 2010 redistricting. The image also includes the partisan breakdown of the districts that are close in registration figures.
See also: FairVote's "Dubious Democracy" report about United States House of Representatives elections

FairVote, formerly the Center for Voting and Democracy, published a study of representative democracy in U.S. House elections. The analysis, "Dubious Democracy," compiles voting data to assess "the level of competition and the accuracy of representation in House elections in all 50 states."[5] The study attempts to highlight a lack of real options in most elections, as well as a mismatch between voter preferences and the politicians who represent them.[5]

Among the statistics analyzed in the study are the following:

  • The Democracy Index is the overall combination of Average Margin of Victory, Landslide Index, Seats-to-Votes Distortion, and Representation Index.
  • The Margin of Victory is the winner's percentage of the vote minus the second-place candidate's.
  • Voter Turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who voted in a given election.
  • The Representation Index multiplies voter turnout by the winning candidate's percentage.

Arizona's ratings for 2010 are shown below:

Statistic Rating Ranking (1-50)
Democracy Index 23.8 19
Margin of Victory 18.9% 11
Voter Turnout 39.2% 36
Representation 21.9% 44

General election candidates

District General Election Candidates Incumbent 2012 Winner Partisan Switch?
1st Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick
Republican Party Jonathan Paton
Libertarian Party Kim Allen
Paul Gosar Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Yes
2nd Democratic Party Ron Barber
Republican Party Martha McSally
Libertarian Party Anthony Powell (Write-in)
Trent Franks Democratic Party Ron Barber Yes
3rd Democratic Party Raul Grijalva
Republican Party Gabriela Saucedo Mercer
Libertarian Party Blanca Guerra
Benjamin Quayle Democratic Party Raul Grijalva Yes
4th Democratic Party Johnnie Robinson
Republican Party Paul Gosar
Libertarian Party Joe Pamelia
Independent Richard Grayson
Ed Pastor Republican Party Paul Gosar Yes
5th Democratic Party Morgan Spencer
Republican Party Matt Salmon
David Schweikert Republican Party Matt Salmon No
6th Democratic Party Matt Jette
Republican Party David Schweikert
Libertarian Party Jack Anderson
Green Party Mark Salazar
Jeff Flake Republican Party David Schweikert No
7th Democratic Party Ed Pastor
Libertarian Party Joe Cobb
Raul Grijalva Democratic Party Ed Pastor No
8th Democratic Party Gene Scharer
Republican Party Trent Franks
Independent Stephen Dolgos
Ron Barber Republican Party Trent Franks Yes
9th Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema
Republican Party Vernon Parker
Libertarian Party Powell Gammill
N/A Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema N/A

Candidates

1st Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Ann KirkpatrickGreen check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Jonathan Paton
Libertarian Party Kim Allen


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Note: The following candidates withdrew prior to the primary: Miguel Olivas.[8]

Republican Party Republican Primary

Note: The following candidates withdrew prior to the primary: Doug McKee.[8]

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

Note: The following candidate was removed from the ballot prior to the primary: Anthony Prowell.[11] Approveda

2nd Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Ron Barber Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Martha McSally
Libertarian Party Anthony Powell (Write-in)


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Note: Jesse Kelly withdrew from the race prior to the primary.[14]

3rd Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Raul GrijalvaGreen check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Gabriela Saucedo Mercer
Libertarian Party Blanca Guerra


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Note: The following candidates withdrew prior to the primary: David Crowe.[8]

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

4th Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Johnnie Robinson
Republican Party Paul GosarGreen check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party Joe Pamelia
Independent Richard Grayson


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Note: The following candidates withdrew prior to the primary: Paul Babeu.[8][22]

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

Americans Elect candidate

5th Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Morgan Spencer
Republican Party Matt SalmonGreen check mark transparent.png


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

6th Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Matt Jette
Republican Party David SchweikertGreen check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party Jack Anderson
Green Party Mark Salazar


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

Green PartyGreen Party

7th Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Ed PastorGreen check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party Joe Cobb


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

8th Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Gene Scharer
Republican Party Trent FranksGreen check mark transparent.png
Independent Stephen Dolgos



August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Americans Elect candidate

9th Congressional District

General election candidates

Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Vernon Parker
Libertarian Party Powell Gammil


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

Race background

The Washington Post listed the House of Representatives elections in Arizona in 2012 as 1 of the 10 states that could determine whether Democrats would retake the House or Republicans would hold their majority in 2013.[30] Arizona ranked 5th on the list.[30]

See also

External links

References

  1. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 2, 2014
  2. Arizona Secretary of State, "Important Dates," accessed June 29, 2012
  3. New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed July 25, 2012
  4. , "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Arizona," September 2012
  5. 5.0 5.1 FairVote, "Dubious Democracy 2010," accessed July 8, 2012
  6. "Kirkpatrick to run again," Azdailysun.com, March 30, 2011
  7. "Harvard educated Navajo explores run for US Congress in Arizona," TucsonCitizen.com, April 4, 2011
  8. 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 Primary candidate list
  9. Explorer News "Paton announces candidacy in CD1," January 25, 2012
  10. azsos.gov "2012 Primary election full listing" accessed July 11, 2012
  11. azsos.gov "2012 Primary election full listing" accessed July 11, 2012
  12. The Hill "Arizona lawmaker who replaced Giffords in state Senate to run for her House seat," February 13, 2012
  13. bensonnews-sun.com, "GOP candidates seeking nomination stands at five" February 15, 2012
  14. Arizona Daily Star, "Jesse Kelly third Republican to join CD8 race," February 3, 2012
  15. 15.0 15.1 Tucson Weekly, "Tucson Physician Announces Plan To Challenge Grijalva," February 14, 2012
  16. Arizona Star "Grijalva makes it official: Will seek re-election in CD 3," accessed February 23, 2012
  17. "Another “Gabby” for U.S. Congress: Gabriela Saucedo Mercer to announce for CD 7 on March 2," TucsonCitizen.com, February 26, 2011
  18. Arizona Daily Star, "Democrat Arreguin to run against Grijalva in CD3," February 14, 2012
  19. The Arizona Republic, "Democrat running in Arizona's District 4," February 12, 2012
  20. Roll Call "Paul Gosar to Switch Districts to Seek Re-Election," January 9, 2012
  21. Phoenix Business Journal "Gould in, Gosar moves, Quayle ponders as 2012 Arizona races take shape," January 11, 2012
  22. The Hill, "Embattled sheriff drops Arizona House bid," May 11, 12
  23. "Kyl Endorses Kirk Adams in Arizona Race to Succeed Flake," RollCall.com, April 28, 2011
  24. "Matt Salmon seeks to replace Jeff Flake in U.S. House," Azcentral.com, April 19, 2011
  25. Arizona Daily Sun "1st Democrat announces run for Ariz. 6th District," March 9, 2012
  26. 26.0 26.1 KTAR "Schweikert ready to battle Quayle in GOP primary," February 4, 2012
  27. azsos.gov "2012 Primary election full listing" accessed July 11, 2012
  28. "Franks bows out of Senate race," AzCapitolTimes.com, April 1, 2011
  29. 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 Arizona Republic "Cherny announces bid for Congressional district 9," February 9, 2012
  30. 30.0 30.1 Washington Post, "The 10 states that will determine control of the House in 2012" accessed April 25, 2012