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United States Senate elections in Florida, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Florida

November 6 Election Winner:
Bill Nelson Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Bill Nelson Democratic Party
Bill Nelson.jpg

Cook Political Report Race Rating
     Lean D (Prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Florida.png
Voters in Florida elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

Bill Nelson won re-election on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
June 8, 2012
August 14, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Florida has a closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by July 16. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 8.[2]

See also: Florida elections, 2012

Incumbent: The election filled the Class 1 Senate seat, held by Bill Nelson (D). First elected in 2000, Nelson ran for, and won, re-election in 2012.

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Bill Nelson IncumbentGreen check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Connie Mack
Independent Bill Gaylor:[3]
Independent Chris Borgia:[3]
Independent Robert Monroe:[3]
Independent Lawrence Sidney Scott:[3]
Independent Piotr Blass:[3]
Independent Naomi Craine:[3]
Independent Lionel Long:[3]

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican primary

Note: George LeMieux and Deon Long initially filed but did not appear on the list of primary candidates.[3]

Independent No Party Affiliation

Note: Bill Fisher Jr. withdrew from the race on February 29, 2012.[9]

Note: Ron McNeil initially filed but did not appear on the list of primary candidates.[3]

Election results

U.S. Senate, Florida General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBill Nelson Incumbent 55.2% 4,523,451
     Republican Connie Mack 42.2% 3,458,267
     Independent Bill Gaylor 1.5% 126,079
     Independent Chris Borgia 1% 82,089
     N/A Write-ins 0% 60
Total Votes 8,189,946
Source: Florida Election Watch "U.S. Senator"

Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:[10]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Florida Senate
Month Rating
November 1, 2012[11]     
October 4, 2012[12]     
September 13, 2012[13]     
August 21, 2012[14]     
July 12, 2012[15]     
May 31, 2012[16]     
May 10, 2012[17]     
March 22, 2012[18]     
March 1, 2012[19]     
January 26, 2012[20]     
December 22, 2011[21]     
December 1, 2011[22]     

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012, detailing the eight races in the Senate in 2012 that will decide the political fate of which party will end up with control in 2013.[23] The Senate seat in Florida was the toss up state ranked second in likelihood of ending up Democratic, behind New Mexico's Senate seat.[23] Incumbent Bill Nelson's mediocre approval rating was the reasoning behind the "toss-up" classification of the Senate seat, but Nelson was expected to gain Democratic support in time for the election in 2012.[23] Nelson was also expected to face significant opposition from Connie Mack, U.S. representative from the 14th District, in the general election on November 6, 2012.[23]

Endorsements

Connie Mack received the endorsement of 1st District Representative Jeff Miller.[24] Former Governor Charlie Crist confirmed support for Democrat Bill Nelson’s re-election bid against Republican Representative Connie Mack IV on August 1, 2012.[25] Not only did Crist announce that he planned to to donate to Nelson, but he said he'd also appear at an August 1, 2012, fundraiser for the incumbent, headlined by former President Bill Clinton.[25]

Polls

2012

General Election candidates for U.S. Senate seat
Poll Bill Nelson Connie MackOther candidateUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports
(August 15, 2012)
47%40%3%10%+/-4.5500
Quinnipiac University
(August 15-21, 2012)
50%41%0%9%+/-2.81,241
Rasmussen Reports
(September 16, 2012)
47%40%5%8%+/-4.5500
Mason-Dixon Polling
(September 19, 2012)
48%40%1%11%+/-3.5800
Quinnipiac University
(September 26, 2012)
53%39%0%8%+/-2.81,196
Rasmussen Reports
(October 8, 2012)
52%41%1%6%+/-4.5500
Rasmussen Reports
(October 15, 2012)
46%45%5%5%+/-4.5500
Sunshine State News
(October 22-24, 2012)
49%44%0%7%+/-3.11,001
Rasmussen Reports
(October 25, 2012)
49%46%2%3%+/-4750
Public Policy Polling
(October 26-28, 2012)
50%42%0%9%+/-6.7687
AVERAGES 49.1% 41.8% 1.7% 7.6% +/-4.09 767.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Campaign donors

2012

Connie Mack

Connie Mack (2012)[26] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[27]April 13, 2012$917,925.51$1,060,936.78$(597,869.74)$1,380,992.55
July Quarterly[28]July 13, 2012$1,380,992.55$839,556.19$(867,802.08)$1,352,746.66
Pre-Primary[29]August 2, 2012$1,352,746.66$296,080.78$(280,951.27)$1,367,876.17
Running totals
$2,196,573.75$(1,746,623.09)

As of July 11, 2012, Mack raised $840,000 in the second quarter and at the end of the cycle has $1.4 million cash-on-hand.[30]

Mack raised over $2.7 million in the third quarter.[31]

Bill Nelson

Bill Nelson (2012)[32] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[33]April 13, 2012$8,421,678.66$1,541,427.84$(421,722.05)$9,541,384.45
July QuarterlyJuly 13, 2012$$$()$
Pre-Primary[34]August 2, 2012$10,788,370.38$156,720.50$(2,119,046.96)$8,826,043.92
Running totals
$1,698,148.34$(2,540,769.01)

As of July 11, 2012, Nelson raised $1.8 million in the second quarter and finished the cycle with $11 million in cash-on-hand.[35]

Nelson raised $2.3 million in the third quarter and will have $6.5 million on hand going into the final stretch.[31]

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Marco Rubio won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Kendrick B. Meek (D), Alexander Andrew Snitker (L), Bernie DeCastro (I), Charlie Crist (I), Sue Askeland (I), Rick Tyler (I), Lewis Jerome Armstrong (I), Bobbbie Bean (I), Bruce Ray Riggs (I), Piotr Blass (I), Richard Lock (I), Belinda Gail Quarterman-Noah (I), Geroge Drake (I), Robert Monroe (I), Howard Knepper (I) and Carol Ann Joyce LaRose (I) in the general election.[36]

U.S. Senate, Florida General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Marco Rubio 48.9% 2,645,743
     Democratic Kendrick B. Meek 20.2% 1,092,936
     Libertarian Alexander Andrew Snitker 0.5% 24,850
     Constitution Party of Florida Bernie DeCastra 0.1% 4,792
     Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 1,607,549
     Independent Sue Askeland 0.3% 15,340
     Independent Rick Tyler 0.1% 7,397
     Independent Lewis Jerome Armstrong 0.1% 4,443
     Independent Bobbie Bean 0.1% 4,301
     Independent Bruce Ray Riggs 0.1% 3,647
     Independent Piotr Blass 0% 47
     Independent Richard Lock 0% 18
     Independent Belinda Gail Quarterman-Noah 0% 18
     Independent George Drake 0% 13
     Independent Robert Monroe 0% 6
     Independent Howard Knepper 0% 4
     Independent Carol Ann Joyce LaRosa 0% 2
Total Votes 5,411,106

2006

On November 7, 2006, Bill Nelson won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Katherine Harris (R), Belinda Noah (I), Brian Moore (I), Floyd Ray Frazier (I), Roy Tanner, Lawrence Scott (I) and Bernard Senter (I) in the general election.[37]

U.S. Senate General Election, Florida, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBill Nelson Incumbent 60.4% 2,890,548
     Republican Katherine Harris 38.2% 1,826,127
     Independent Belinda Noah 0.3% 16,628
     Independent Brian Moore 0.4% 19,695
     Independent Floyd Ray Frazier 0.3% 16,628
     Independent Roy Tanner 0.3% 15,562
     Independent Lawrence Scott 0% 78
     Independent Bernard Senter 0% 16
Total Votes 4,785,282

See also

External links

References

  1. ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. Florida Division of Elections, "Register to Vote," accessed July 21, 2012
  3. 3.00 3.01 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 Florida Secretary of State Elections Division, "Candidate List," accessed March 29, 2012
  4. Washington Post Blog "The Fix" "Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in same spot as Obama," accessed January 5, 2012
  5. 5.0 5.1 AP Results, "Election Results" accessed August 14, 2012
  6. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named he
  7. Miami Herald, "Poll: Mack holds big lead in GOP Senate race," accessed January 5, 2012
  8. Orlando Sentinel, "Marielena Stuart joins U.S. Senate race," accessed January 5, 2012
  9. Elect Bill Fisher, "Dear Friends" accessed May 6, 2012
  10. Cook Political Report, "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011 (dead link)
  11. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
  12. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
  13. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
  14. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 21, 2012
  15. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
  16. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
  17. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
  18. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
  19. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
  20. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
  21. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 22, 2011
  22. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
  23. 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 Center for Politics, "Tilting the Toss Ups – the Eight Races That Will Decide the Senate" accessed April 9, 2012
  24. Roll Call, "Jeff Miller Endorses Connie Mack IV for Senate" accessed July 5, 2012
  25. 25.0 25.1 Tampa Bay Online, "Charlie Crist backing Bill Nelson in Senate race" accessed August 3, 2012
  26. FEC Reports, "Connie Mack Summary Reports" accessed July 17, 2012
  27. FEC Reports, "April Quarterly" accessed July 17, 2012
  28. FEC Reports, "July Quarterly" accessed July 17, 2012
  29. FEC Reports, "Pre Primary" accessed August 20, 2012
  30. Twitter account, "Leary Reports" accessed July 17, 2012
  31. 31.0 31.1 Tampa Bay Times, "Mack's third quarter haul: $2.7 million; Nelson: $2.3 million," accessed October 10, 2012
  32. FEC Reports, "Bill Nelson Summary Reports Accessed July 13, 2012
  33. FEC Reports, "April Quarterly" accessed July 13, 2012
  34. FEC Reports, "Pre Primary" accessed August 20, 2012
  35. Hotline on call, "Nelson Raises $1.8 Million" accessed July 13, 2012
  36. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  37. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013