United States Senate elections in Missouri, 2012

2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Missouri

Candidates • Polls • Election History

November 6 Election Winner: Claire McCaskill

Incumbent prior to election: Claire McCaskill

Cook Political Report Race Rating      Likely D (Prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Voters in Missouri elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

Incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) won re-election on November 6, 2012.

Candidate Filing Deadline	Primary Election	General Election
March 27, 2012	August 7, 2012	November 6, 2012

Primary: Missouri has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can vote in any party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by July 11. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 10.

See also: Missouri elections, 2012

Incumbent: The election will fill the Class 1 Senate seat, which is currently held by Claire McCaskill (D). First elected in 2006, McCaskill is running for re-election in 2012.

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Claire McCaskill

Todd Akin

Jonathan Dine

Democratic Candidate

• Claire McCaskill: Incumbent a

Republican Primary

• Todd Akin: U.S. Representative a
• John Brunner: Businessman
• Sarah Steelman: Former Missouri treasurer
• Mark Lodes: Businessman
• Jerry Beck: Manufacturing Executive
• Mark Memoly: Car Salesman
• Robert Poole
• Hector Maldonado: U.S. Army Veteran

Libertarian Candidate

• Jonathan Dine: Personal Trainer a

Election Results

U.S. Senate, Missouri, General Election, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Claire McCaskill Incumbent	54.8%	1,494,125
	Republican	Todd Akin	39.1%	1,066,159
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	6.1%	165,468
	Write-in	Ted Kimzey	0%	15
	Write-in	Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr.	0%	9
	Write-in	William Dean	0%	6
	Write-in	Bernie Mowinksi	0%	5
	Write-in	Charlie L. Bailey	0%	4
	Write-in	Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff	0%	2
Total Votes				2,725,793
Source: Missouri Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Primary Results

Republican Primary

The primary took place on August 7, 2012.

US Senate - Missouri Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Todd Akin	36%	217,468
John G. Brunner	30%	180,821
Sarah Steelman	29.2%	176,189
Jerry Beck	1.6%	9,791
Hector Maldonado	1.2%	7,412
Robert (Bob) Poole	1%	6,097
Mark Memoly	0.5%	3,200
Mark Patrick Lodes	0.4%	2,282
Total Votes		603,260

Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Missouri Senate
Month	Rating
November 1, 2012
October 4, 2012
September 13, 2012
August 21, 2012
July 12, 2012
May 31, 2012
May 10, 2012
March 22, 2012
March 1, 2012
January 26, 2012
December 22, 2011
December 1, 2011

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012 detailing the 8 races in the Senate in 2012 that will decide the political fate of which party will end up with control in 2013. The seat rated a a toss-up that the Sabato's Crystal Ball believes is 3rd most likely to end up Republican is the Senate seat in Missouri. The article notes incumbent freshman senator Claire McCaskill (D) is vulnerable in the Republican leaning state. While it still remains a toss up as to who McCaskill's competitor will end up being in the general election, challengers U.S. Representative Todd Akin, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and businessman John Brunner all present a significant challenge to the vulnerable incumbent.

Race Background

On Sunday, August 19, Todd Akin made the following statement on a KTVI-TV, a local St. Louis station, "It seems to be, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, it’s really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down."

According to the New York Times, "Amid an uproar over provocative comments on rape and abortion that Mr. Akin made in an interview broadcast on Sunday, the National Republican Senatorial Committee declared that it would withdraw financial and organizational support for Mr. Akin, including $5 million in advertising already reserved for the fall. [...] At the same time, Republican candidates like Mitt Romney and Senator Scott P. Brown of Massachusetts either called for Mr. Akin to step aside or strongly indicated that he should. In a radio interview, the conservative host Sean Hannity pleaded with Mr. Akin to drop out. “Sometimes an election is bigger than one person,” he said. But Mr. Akin said on Monday that he would not drop out. “I’m not a quitter,” he said on Mike Huckabee’s radio program. “My belief is we’re going to take this thing forward, and by the grace of God, we’re going to win this race.”"

Since then, many Republicans are looking for an alternative to Akin in the race. According to the Rasmussen poll, 13% of Republicans favor "some other candidate" while 7% are undecided. Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine looks to these voters to potentially support him.

Influence of PAC Spending

While independent conservative groups have already spent more than $3 million on television and radio ads in Missouri to unseat Claire McCaskill, the Washington Post reported in late April that McCaskill's response was unique, "McCaskill’s response has been an unconventional and risky strategy: She’s targeting the super PACs right back." The story elaborates, "Standard practice suggests that voters are rarely interested in arguments over campaign finances, particularly in the face of a tough economy and a political system awash in money on both sides. But McCaskill is betting she can turn the millions spent against her into an advantage, a sign of her political independence. She devoted her first campaign ad for re-election to the argument that out-of-state special interests are trying to knock her out of the Senate in November. “You make one company mad by casting a principled vote, and they say, ‘Okay, we’ll just gin up $10 million of our corporate money and take her out anonymously,’ ” she said. “I think if people figure out that’s what’s going on, they’re going to be very turned off by it.”"

Polls

2012

Todd Akin vs. Claire McCaskill
Response	Rasmussen Reports (August 23, 2012)	Survey USA (August 9-August 12, 2012)	Rasmussen Reports (July 30, 2012)	Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon (July 23-July 25, 2012)	Public Policy Polling (May 24-May 27, 2012)	Post-Dispatch/News4/Kansas City Star poll (October 23-25, 2012)	Kiley & Company (October 26, 2012)	Average
Todd Akin	38%	51%	47%	49%	45%	43%	39%	44.57%
Claire McCaskill	48%	40%	44%	44%	44%	45%	53%	45.429%
Number polled	500	585	500	625	602	625	600	576.71
Margin of error	+/-4.5	+/-4.1%	+/-4.5%	+/-5%	+/-4%	+/-4%	+/-3.5%	4.23%
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

In a SurveyUSA poll conducted during the second week of August, Todd Akin was leading incumbent Claire McCaskill by 11 percentage points. In another poll published by Rasmussen Reports in late July, Akin led McCaskill by 3 percentage points at 47% to 44%.

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Roy Blunt was elected to the United States Senate. He defeated Robin Carnahan (D), Jonathan Dine (Libertarian), and Jerry Beck (Constitution).

United States Senate, Missouri General Election, 2010
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Roy Blunt	54.2%	1,054,160
	Democratic	Robin Carnahan	40.6%	789,736
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	3%	58,663
	Constitution	Jerry Beck	2.1%	41,309
Total Votes				1,943,868

2006

On November 7, 2006, Claire McCaskill was elected to the United States Senate. She defeated the incumbent James M. Talent (R), Frank Gilmour (Libertarian), Lydia Lewis (Progressive), and the write-in candidates.

United States Senate Missouri General Election, 2006
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Claire McCaskill	49.6%	1,055,255
	Republican	James M. Talent	47.3%	1,006,941
	Libertarian	Frank Gilmour	2.2%	47,792
	Progressive	Lydia Lewis	0.9%	18,383
	Write-in		0%	88
Total Votes				2,128,459

Campaign donors

Claire McCaskill

Claire McCaskill(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly	March 31, 2012	$4,802,500.74	$2,298,462.60	$(1,017,863.50)	$6,083,099.84
			Running totals
			$2,298,462.6	$(1,017,863.5)

Todd Akin

Todd Akin(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly	March 31, 2012	$1,158,197.04	$416,580.75	$(174,137.84)	$1,400,639.95
			Running totals
			$416,580.75	$(174,137.84)

John Brunner

John Brunner(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly	March 31, 2012	$209,248.51	$1,375,066.12	$(1,359,141.06)	$225,173.57
			Running totals
			$1,375,066.12	$(1,359,141.06)

Sarah Steelman

Sarah Steelman(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly	March 31, 2012	$572,986.90	$178,707.26	$(152,850.74)	$598,843.42
			Running totals
			$178,707.26	$(152,850.74)

Jerry Beck

Jerry Beck(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly	March 31, 2012	$0.00	$250,000.00	$(0.00)	$250,000.00
			Running totals
			$250,000	$(0)

Mark Memoly

Mark Memoly(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly	March 31, 2012	$20.00	$385.77	$(380.77)	$25.00
			Running totals
			$385.77	$(380.77)

See also

• United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri, 2012
• United States Senate elections, 2012