United States Senate elections in North Dakota, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections in North Dakota

CandidatesPollsElection History

November 6 Election Winner:
Heidi Heitkamp Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Kent Conrad Democratic Party
Kent Conrad.jpg

Cook Political Report Race Rating
     Tossup (prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Flag of North Dakota.png
Voters in North Dakota elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

Heidi Heitkamp (D) won election on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
April 13, 2012
June 12, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: North Dakota has an open primary system, in which any registered voter can choose which party's primary to vote in, without having to be a member of that party.

Voter registration: North Dakota has no voter registration. North Dakota precincts maintain lists of qualified voters.[2]

See also: North Dakota elections, 2012

Incumbent: The election will fill the Class 1 Senate seat, which is currently held by Kent Conrad (D). First elected in 1986, Conrad is not running for re-election in 2012.

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Heidi HeitkampGreen check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Rick Berg

June 12, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Withdrawn

Republican Party Republican primary

Election results

General election

U.S. Senate, North Dakota General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHeidi Heitkamp 50.5% 161,337
     Republican Rick Berg 49.5% 158,401
Total Votes 319,738
Source: North Dakota Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Republican primary

U.S. Senate-North Dakota Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRick Berg 66.5% 67,860
Duane Sand 33.5% 34,213
Total Votes 102,073

Race background

North Dakota has only one U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in 2012. Incumbent Kent Conrad (D), who was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, decided not to seek re-election this year. Vying for his open seat in the general election are Democrat Heidi Heitkamp and Republican U.S. House incumbent Rick Berg. Heitkamp ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Berg defeated Navy Commander Duane Sand to win the Republican nomination.

Competitiveness

The New York Times' analysis of the 2012 North Dakota Senate race rated it as leaning Republican; the seat is currently held by a Democrat, but could switch to Republican.[7]

Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:[8]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- North Dakota Senate
Month Rating
October 4, 2012[9]     
September 13, 2012[10]     
July 12, 2012[11]     
May 31, 2012[12]     
May 10, 2012[13]     
March 22, 2012[14]     
March 1, 2012[15]     
January 26, 2012[16]     
December 22, 2011[17]     
December 1, 2011[18]     

Polls

US Senate in North Dakota, General election candidates
Poll Rick Berg Heidi HeitkampOtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Valley News Live/ Mason-Dixon Poll (October 3-5, 2012)
47%47%0%6%+/-4625
Forum Communications (October 12-15, 2012)
50%40%5%5%+/-4.3500
Rassmussen Reports (October 23, 2012)
50%45%0%5%+/-4600
Pharos Research Group
(October 26-28, 2012)
47.7%49.9%0%2.4%+/-3.5752
NBC North Dakota News/ Mason-Dixon
(October 26-28,2012)
47%45%0%0%+/-4625
AVERAGES 48.34% 45.38% 1% 3.68% +/-3.96 620.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign finance

Rick Berg

Rick Berg Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[19]April 15, 2012$138,973.60$942,968.29$(747,592.77)$1,585,106.12
Pre-primary[20]May 28, 2012$1,585,106.12$443,304.57$(389,229.28)$1,639,181.41
July Quarterly[21]July 15, 2012$1,639,181.41$799,380.31$(243,588.57)$2,194,973.15
October Quarterly[22]October 15, 2012$2,194,973.15$1,576,410.75$(2,255,820.53)$1,515,563.37
Running totals
$3,762,063.92$(3,636,231.15)

Heidi Heitkamp

Heidi Heitkamp Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[23]April 15, 2012$411,891.95$712,039.90$(280,105.92)$843,825.93
Pre-primary[24]May 31, 2012$843,825.93$499,935.12$(585,449.36)$758,312.49
July Quarterly[25]July 15, 2012$758,312.49$477,261.75$(556,343.55)$679,230.69
October Quarterly[26]October 15, 2012$679,230.69$1,590,645.71$(1,651,465.40)$618,411.00
Running totals
$3,279,882.48$(3,073,364.23)

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, John Hoeven won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Tracy Potter and Keith J. Hanson in the general election.[27]

U.S. Senate, North Dakota General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Hoeven 76.2% 181,689
     Democratic-Nonpartisan League Tracy Potter 22.2% 52,955
     Libertarian Keith J. Hanson 1.6% 3,890
Total Votes 238,534

2006

On November 7, 2006, Kent Conrad won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Dwight Grotberg, Roland Riemers, and James Germalic in the general election.[28]

U.S. Senate, North Dakota General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKent Conrad Incumbent 68.8% 150,146
     Republican Dwight Grotberg 29.5% 64,417
     Independent Roland Riemers 1% 2,194
     Independent James Germalic 0.6% 1,395
Total Votes 218,152

See also

References

  1. Politico, "2012 Election Map, North Dakota"
  2. North Dakota Secretary of State "Voter Registration," accessed July 26, 2012
  3. Hedi Heitkamp Official Campaign Website "Home Page," accessed December 13, 2011
  4. North Decoder "Tom Potter" I'm running for Senate," accessed January 6, 2012
  5. Hotline On Call "Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race," accessed January 6, 2012
  6. Standard Newswire "Sand Announces Entry into North Dakota Senate Race," accessed January 6, 2012
  7. The New York Times, "2012 Ratings Senate," accessed September 17, 2012
  8. Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011
  9. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 23, 2012
  10. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 23, 2012
  11. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
  12. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
  13. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
  14. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
  15. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
  16. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
  17. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
  18. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
  19. Federal Election Commission, "Rick Berg April Quarterly" Accessed October 11, 2012
  20. Federal Election Commission, "Rick Berg Pre-primary" Accessed October 11, 2012
  21. Federal Election Commission, "Rick Berg July Quarterly" Accessed October 11, 2012
  22. Federal Election Commission, "Rick Berg October Quarterly" Accessed October 23, 2012
  23. Federal Election Commission, "Heidi Heitkamp April Quarterly" Accessed October 11, 2012
  24. Federal Election Commission, "Heidi Heitkamp Pre-primary" Accessed October 11, 2012
  25. Federal Election Commission, "Heidi Heitkamp July Quarterly" Accessed October 11, 2012
  26. ''Federal Election Commission, "Heidi Heitkamp October Quarterly" Accessed October 23, 2012
  27. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
  28. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006"