Difference between revisions of "California gubernatorial election, 2010"

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| colspan="2" |[[Chelene Nightengale]]<ref>[http://www.votenaturally.org/electionresults/index.php ''Arkansas Secretary of State'', "2010 General Election & Non Partisan Judicial Runoff Election Candidate Information", accessed September 6, 2010]</ref>
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| colspan="2" |[[Chelene Nightingale]]<ref>[http://www.votenaturally.org/electionresults/index.php ''Arkansas Secretary of State'', "2010 General Election & Non Partisan Judicial Runoff Election Candidate Information", accessed September 6, 2010]</ref>
 
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Revision as of 13:39, 11 September 2010

Portal:Elections
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Elections
The California gubernatorial election of 2010 will be held on November 2, 2010 Democrat Edmund G. Jerry Brown will face Republican Meg Whitman after both candidates won their respective primaries.

California's primary election occured on June 8, 2010. The deadline for submitting nominating signatures to run for Governor of California was February 25.[1] Incumbent Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited and cannot seek re-election.


The November Ballot – Who's Made It? California Governor
Nominee Affiliation
Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown[2] Democrat
Meg Whitman[3] Republican
Laura Wells[4] Green
Dale F. Ogden[5] Libertarian
Chelene Nightingale[6] American Independence
Carlos Alvarez[7] Peace and Freedom
Alex Brittain[8] (write-in)
Royce D'Orazio[9] (write-in)
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who have since been officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.


Race background

California is the nation's most populous state and a Democratic stronghold. Arnold Schwarzenegger's successes are rare Republican wins in a state that votes reliably Democratic for state-wide office. However, polling indicates incumbency fatigue and dissatisfaction with the direction the state is headed, and 3 out of 10 Californians identify with the Tea Party movement.[10]

The Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 ranks this seat as "Leans Democratic". It is one of eight (out of 37) races thus ranked as of February 2010. There are also eight races listed as "Leans Republican".[11]

The Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 still ranks the race as "Leans Democratic" as of June 2010.[12]

The Cook Political Report ranks the race as "Toss up" as of June 17.[13]

A January Field poll showed Democratic candidate Jerry Brown with a ten point lead, 46% to 36%, over Republican front-runner Meg Whitman.[14] However, that lead has been erased. By March, Whitman had reversed the trend[15], taking a slight lead over Brown. In the newest Field Poll, Whitman is at 43% to Brown's 44% - a statistical dead heat.[16]

Rasmussen's findings at July midpoint not only duplicate the Field Poll's results, they show an even closer race. Whitman leads by a single pint: 47% to Brown's 46% showing. On 'favorable' and 'unfavorable' ratings, the two are within one or two points on all measures. Total favorable ratings comes out to 49% for Whitman and 46% for Brown. They are similarly tied on negative perceptions, with 44% of voter's viewing Meg Whitman poorly and 48% less than impressed with Brown.[17]

At this point, the race may turn a great deal on which candidate is faster and better at picking up the fraction of voters who are undecided. Brown's slight edge in one of the few categories where no candidate wants to lead - unfavorable voter perceptions, may also translate into real results in November. California easily remains one of the most captivating and unpredictable contests in 2010.


Race ratings

2010 Race Rankings California
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[18] Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly Politics[19] Leans Democratic
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[20] Leans GOP
The Rothenberg Political Report[21] Pure Toss-up
Overall Call Toss-up

Candidates

American Independent

  • Business owner Chelene Nightingale
  • Markham Robinson, also a business owner

Democratic

  • Businessman Richard William Aquirre
  • Edmund G. Jerry Brown, the current Attorney General of California[22]
  • Lowell Darling, an artist
  • Vibert Greene, a mechanical engineer and CEO
  • Charles 'Chuck' Pineda, Jr., a parole board judge for the state
  • Peter Schruman, a consultant to non-profits
  • Joe Symon, president of a non-profit

Withdrawn Democratic candidates

Green

Libertarian

Peace and Freedom

See also: Peace and Freedom Party

Republican

  • Bill Chambers, a railroad switchman
  • Douglas R. Hughes a former business owner
  • Broadcasting executive Ken Miller
  • Lawrence 'Larry' Naritelli, an accountant
  • Psychologist Robert C. Newman, II
  • Steve Poizner, a businessman
  • Physician David Tully-Smith
  • Executive Meg Whitman

Withdrawn Republican candidates

Campaign ads

California Working Families

Knowing the rest of the nation is watching, California is certainly putting on a captivating show as Republican Meg Whitman and Democratic Jerry Brown vie for votes. No sooner had Whitman sealed the GOP nomination than unions and labor groups began sponsoring ads against her candidacy. Several groups have formed a coalition called California Working Families for Jerry Brown, a group which has been the source of many of Whitman's headaches. CWF's spots have targeted spending and taxation proposals in Whitman's platform as being damaging to middle class families and as threatening to strip away vital safety net services. When FactCheck.org looked at the charges, they found California Working Families misrepresented Whitman's policy while overstating Brown record on taxes.[27] At the heart of the debate is Whitman's policy plan, the 48-page Building a New California.

But the same report case a scrutinizing eye on the new ad Whitman has launched, a spot called 'Their Governor'. In it, California's dire pension situation is linked to Brown's policies, something that independent analysis of the seeds of the crisis say doesn't hold water. Currently, California's voters are being hit with three spots. California Working Families began running 'Misleading' on July 9th and 'World' on July 13th; the former asks voters if they want to live in 'Whitman's World' while the latter presents itself as a fact check on Whitman's record.

The Whitman campaign launched a return volley with 'Their Governor' on July 13th, portraying Jerry Brown as the candidate who is out of touch with voters. On September 1, 2010, California Working Families announced they would take a "less visible" roll in the gubernatorial campaign going forward.[28] To date, their combined expenditures for television, radio, and online ads targeting Whitman come in at $8.7 million. Bob Balgenorth and Lou Paulson, each head of one of labor groups under the CWF umbrella, announced they were stepping down as co-chairs of the committee that ran the ads, remarking that they feel CWF has accomplished its goal of, "...keep[ing] Meg Whitman from running away with this campaign...".

The announced cessation of the CWF ads comes as Jerry Brown, who has yet to run any ads, prepares to launch his first round of campaign spots. According to Whitman campaign sources, the timing is a bothersome indication of coordination between Brown's campaign and sympathetic political committees.

However, as of September 3rd, CWF has launched at least one ad, "Billionaire", in which Meg Whitman's personal wealth and her donations to her own campaign are held out as proof she is not in tune with the average Californian.



California Working Families' 'World' ad.

California Working Families' 'Misleading' ad.



Meg Whitman for Governor's 'Their Governor' ad.

California Working Families' 'Billionaire' ad.


Autumn campaign ads

Just after Labor Day, Jerry Brown's campaign rolled out its first ad, a 30-second TV spot that beings playing state-wide on September 7th. Estimated to be costing the Brown campaign $1.2 million for the first week, the spot touts Brown's track record and acumen in cutting costs and balancing budgets


Jerry Brown for Governor' 'JB401' ad.

June 8, 2010 primaries

2010 Race for Governor - American Independent Primary [29]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Chelene Nightingale (AI) 58.2%
Markham Robinson (AI) 41.8%
Total votes 39,914
2010 Race for Governor - Green Primary [30]
Candidates Percentage
S. Deacon Alexander (G) 20.5%
Green check mark.jpg Laura Wells (G) 79.5%
Total votes 20,939
2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary [31]
Candidates Percentage
Richard William Aguirre (D) 4.1%
Green check mark.jpg Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown (D) 84.3%
Lowell Darling (D) 1.6%
Vibert Greene (D) 2.3%
Charles 'Chuck' Pineda, Jr. (D) 4.0%
Peter Schurman (D) 1.4%
Joe Symon (D) 2.3%
Total votes 2,317,850
2010 Race for Governor - Peace and Freedom Primary [32]
Candidates Percentage
Stuart A. Alexander (PF) 40.0%
Green check mark.jpg Carlos Alvarez (PF) 45.5%
Mohammad Arif (PF) 14.5%
Total votes 10,069
2010 Race for Governor - Libertarian Primary [33]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Dale F. Ogden (L) 100.0%
Total votes 16,804
2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary [34]
Candidates Percentage
Bill Chambers (R) 1.4%
Douglas R. Hughes (R) 1.0%
Ken Miller (R) 1.5%
Lawrence 'Larry' Natarelli (R) 2.3%
Robert C. Newman, II (R) 1.7%
Steve Poizner (R) 26.7%
David Tully-Smith (R) 1.0%
Green check mark.jpg Meg Whitman (R) 64.4%
Total votes 2,316,071

Polling

General election polling

2010 Race for California Governor - Public Policy Polling[35]
Date Reported Brown (D) Whitman (R) Other Don't Know
July 28, 2010 [36] 46% 40% -% 14%
May 27, 2010 [37] 48% 36% -% 16%


2010 Race for California Governor - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Brown (D) Whitman (R) Other Don't Know
August 24, 2010 [38] 40% 48% 6% 6%
August 6, 2010 [39] 43% 41% 6% 10%
July 15, 2010 [40] 47% 46% 4% 3%
June 10, 2010 [41] 45% 44% 4% 7%
May 26, 2010[42] 45% 41% 8% 7%
April 21, 2010[43] 44% 38% 9% 9%
March 17 2010[44] 40% 40% 6% 14%
February 16, 2010[45] 43% 43% 6% 8%
January 22, 2010[46] 43% 39% 7% 11%
November 19, 2009[47] 41% 41% 3% 14%
September 28, 2009[48] 44% 35% 3% 18%
September 28, 2009[49] 44% 35% 3% 18%
(Sample)[50] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05
2010 Race for California Governor - Survey USA[51]
Date Reported Brown (D) Whitman (R) Other Don't Know
August 31 - September 1, 2010[52] 40% 47% 9% 4%
August 8-9, 2010[53] 43% 44% - 13%
July 8-11, 2010[54] 39% 46% 7% 8%

Primary election polling

Polling showed Meg Whitman to be favored in the Republican Primary.

Poll Source Dates
Administered
Meg Whitman Steve Poizner Spread
RCP Average 10/26 - 1/19 39.5 11.0 Whitman +28.5
PPIC 1/12 - 1/19 41 11 Whitman +30
Field 1/5 - 1/17 45 17 Whitman +28

Issues in election

Suspension of AB 32


California GOP gubernatorial candidates debate AB 32 in March 2010
See also: California Jobs Initiative, the Suspension of AB 32 (2010)

A ballot proposition to suspend AB 32 until the unemployment rate in California falls below 5.5% for 4 quarters in a row has become an issue in the gubernatorial contest.

  • Meg Whitman has said that she would act to freeze AB 32 for a year or more.[55]
  • Jerry Brown says that he would support "adjusting" some features of AB 32 but that he generally supports it and would not suspend it.[55]

Political landscape

Both United States Senators from California are Democrats. California's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives is made up of 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans. Both the State House and State Senate are controlled by Democratic majorities. The current Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is a Republican.

Recent Presidential election results:
2008 - Barack Obama: 61.01% John McCain: 36.95%
2004 - John Kerry: 54% George W. Bush: 44%

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[56]
Candidates Percentage
Gray Davis (D) 58.0%
Dan Lungren (R) 38.4%
Dan Hamburg (G) 1.2%
Steve W. Kubby (L) 0.9%
Gloria Estela La Riva (PFP) 0.7%
Nathan E. Johnson (AMI) 0.4%
Harold H. Bloomfield (NL) 0.4%
Total votes 8,385,175
2002 Gubernatorial Results[57]
Candidates Percentage
Gray Davis (D) 47.3%
Bill Simon (R) 42.4%
Peter Camejo (G) 5.3%
Gary Copeland (L) 2.2%
Reinhold Gulke (AMI) 1.7%
Iris Adam (NL) 1.2%
Total votes 7,473,980
2006 Gubernatorial Results[58]
Candidates Percentage
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 55.9%
Phil Angelides (D) 38.9%
Peter Camejos (G) 2.4%
Art Olivier (L) 1.3%
Janice Jordan (PFP) 0.8%
Edward Noonan (AMI) 0.7%
Total votes 8,679,048



Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 41.7%
Al Gore (D) 53.5%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 44.4%
John Kerry (D) 54.3%
2008 Presidential Results[59]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 36.9%
Barack Obama (D) 60.0%


1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 32.6%
Bill Clinton (D) 46.0%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 38.2%
Bill Clinton (D) 51.1%

See also

External links

Candidate pages


References

  1. The Green Papers, "2010 Gubernatorial Primaries at a Glance"
  2. California Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote: June 8, 2010, Statewide Direct Primary Election", certified July 16, 2010
  3. California Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote: June 8, 2010, Statewide Direct Primary Election", certified July 16, 2010
  4. California Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote: June 8, 2010, Statewide Direct Primary Election", certified July 16, 2010
  5. California Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote: June 8, 2010, Statewide Direct Primary Election", certified July 16, 2010
  6. Arkansas Secretary of State, "2010 General Election & Non Partisan Judicial Runoff Election Candidate Information", accessed September 6, 2010
  7. Arkansas Secretary of State, "2010 General Election & Non Partisan Judicial Runoff Election Candidate Information", accessed September 6, 2010
  8. Arkansas Secretary of State, "2010 General Election & Non Partisan Judicial Runoff Election Candidate Information", accessed September 6, 2010
  9. Arkansas Secretary of State, "2010 General Election & Non Partisan Judicial Runoff Election Candidate Information", accessed September 6, 2010
  10. Field Poll Online PDF
  11. Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010"
  12. CQ Politics, "Race Ratings Chart 2010: Governor"
  13. Cook Political Report, "Gubernatorial races 2010
  14. FIELD PDF
  15. San Francisco Chronicle, "Poll: Meg Whitman, Jerry Brown in virtual tie", accessed July 7 2010
  16. Real Clear Politics, "Meg Whitman And Jerry Brown Neck And Neck", July 7, 2010
  17. Rasmussen Reports, "Toplines - 2010 California Governor I - July 13, 2010", conducted July 12, 2010
  18. The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  19. CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  20. Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  21. Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  22. "California governor's race: Jerry Brown steps back in at a time of crisis" Washington Post
  23. Los Angeles Times, "It's a small field of candidates for such a huge race", November 1, 2009
  24. "Feinstein considers run for governor in 2010" San Francisco Chronicle
  25. ["Green Party's California gubernatorial candidate steps up". http://www.sacbee.com/capitolandcalifornia/story/2466219.html. Retrieved on 2010-02-03.  “The Sacramento Bee”, Chang, Jack, Saturday January 16, 2010]
  26. "EXCLUSIVE: An Announcement from Tom Campbell" Red County
  27. FactCheck, "Whitman, Unions Swap Misleading Charges", July 15, 2010
  28. The Sacramento Bee, "Union-backed campaign group to take less visible role in governor's race", September 1, 2010
  29. California Secretary of State 2010 Primary Results
  30. California Secretary of State 2010 Primary Results
  31. California Secretary of State 2010 Primary Results
  32. California Secretary of State 2010 Primary Results
  33. California Secretary of State 2010 Primary Results
  34. California Secretary of State 2010 Primary Results
  35. [Full crosstabs and methodology are available free of charge with the press release accompanying each poll.]
  36. Public Policy Polling, "Jerry Brown is Ahead of Meg Whitman", July 23-25, 2010
  37. Public Policy Polling, "Brown Holds Big Leads Over Whitman and Poizner", May 21-23, 2010
  38. Rasmussen Reports, "California Governor: Whitman (R) 48%, Brown (D) 40%", August 26, 2010
  39. Rasmussen Reports, "California Governor: Brown (D) 43%, Whitman (R) 41%", August 3, 2010
  40. Rasmussen Reports, "California Governor: Whitman (R) 47%, Brown (D) 46%", July 12, 2010
  41. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown (D) 45%, Whitman (R) 44%", June 10, 2010
  42. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown 43%, Poizner 42%", May 26, 2010
  43. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown 44%, Whitman 38%", April 21, 2010
  44. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown 40%, Whitman 40%", March 17, 2010
  45. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown 43%, Whitman 43%", February 16, 2010
  46. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown Runs Stronger than Feinstein", January 22, 2010
  47. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown 41%, Whitman 41%", November 19, 2009
  48. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown, Not Newsom, Leads All Republicans", September 28, 2009
  49. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: California Governor: Brown, Not Newsom, Leads All Republicans", September 28, 2009
  50. [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  51. [Full crosstabs and methodology are available free of charge with the press release accompanying each poll.]
  52. Survey USA, "California: Fiorina and Boxer Still in Tight Fight; Whitman Narrowly Atop Brown; Some Traction for Those Opposed to Legal Weed", September 2, 2010
  53. , "CA: Governor, Lt. Governor Contests Tied; Fiorina Narrowly Atop Boxer in Senate Fight", August 12, 2010
  54. , "CA: GOP Whitman Narrowly Atop Brown For Governor; Fiorina & Boxer In Tight Fight for US Senate", August 12, 2010
  55. 55.0 55.1 New York Times, "Jerry Brown Defends Embattled State Climate Law But Is Open to 'Adjustments'", April 30, 2010
  56. California Statement of Vote: 1998 General Election
  57. California Statement of Vote: 2002 General Election
  58. California Statement of Vote: 2006 General Election
  59. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010