Difference between revisions of "2007 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index"

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'''By Geoff Pallay, Kevin Diana and Andrew Maloney'''
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{{CA2007toc}}'''By Geoff Pallay with Kevin Diana, Tyler King and Justin Haas'''''
  
 
'''578''' of the country's 7,384 state legislative seats were up for election in the November 6, 2007 elections.  
 
'''578''' of the country's 7,384 state legislative seats were up for election in the November 6, 2007 elections.  
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Using our [[A "Competitiveness Index" for capturing competitiveness in state legislative elections|3-factor "Competitiveness Index"]], we've contrasted three states that held elections.
 
Using our [[A "Competitiveness Index" for capturing competitiveness in state legislative elections|3-factor "Competitiveness Index"]], we've contrasted three states that held elections.
  
Note: Louisiana was excluded from this study due to stark differences from the other states in regards to how legislators are elected.
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{|class="wikitable" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:50%;"
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|-
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! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Status
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! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Senate
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! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | House
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! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Total
 +
|-
 +
| Seats up
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| align="center" | 171
 +
| align="center" | 407
 +
| align="center" | 578
 +
|-
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| Incumbents running
 +
| align="center" | 133
 +
| align="center" | 308
 +
| align="center" | 441
 +
|-
 +
| % with no incumbent
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| align="center" | 23.2%
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| align="center" | 24.3%
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| align="center" | 13.7%
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|-
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| Incumbents with no primary
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| align="center" | 101
 +
| align="center" | 240
 +
| align="center" | 341
 +
|-
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| % with no primary
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| align="center" | 75.9%
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| align="center" | 77.9%
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| align="center" | 77.3%
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|-
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| Candidates with no major party opposition
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| align="center" | 69
 +
| align="center" | 201
 +
| align="center" | 270
 +
|-
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| % with no major party opposition
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| align="center" | 40.4%
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| align="center" | 49.4%
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| align="center" | 46.7%
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|}
  
 
==Overall comparisons==
 
==Overall comparisons==
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|-
 
|-
| [[Mississippi State Legislature|Mississippi]]
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| [[Louisiana State Legislature|Louisiana]]
 
| align="center" | 1
 
| align="center" | 1
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| align="center" | 2
 
| align="center" | 1
 
| align="center" | 1
| align="center" | 3
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| align="center" | 1
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|-
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| [[Mississippi State Legislature|Mississippi]]
 
| align="center" | 2
 
| align="center" | 2
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| align="center" | 3
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| align="center" | 3
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| align="center" | 3
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[New Jersey State Legislature|New Jersey]]
 
| [[New Jersey State Legislature|New Jersey]]
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| align="center" | 3
 +
| align="center" | 1
 
| align="center" | 2
 
| align="center" | 2
 
| align="center" | 2
 
| align="center" | 2
| align="center" | 1
 
| align="center" | 1
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Virginia State Legislature|Virginia]]
 
| [[Virginia State Legislature|Virginia]]
| align="center" | 3
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| align="center" | 4
| align="center" | 3
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| align="center" | 4
| align="center" | 2
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| align="center" | 4
| align="center" | 3
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| align="center" | 4
 
|}
 
|}
  
 
==Open seats==
 
==Open seats==
{{tnr}}
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[[File:3Competitive 2007.jpg|250px|right|link=2007 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index|]]
 
:: ''Main article: [[Open seats in the 2007 state legislative elections]]''
 
:: ''Main article: [[Open seats in the 2007 state legislative elections]]''
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The states as ranked based on percentage of open seats are: Louisiana, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Virginia.
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#[[Louisiana]]: 52.1%.  In Louisiana, 75 out of 144 seats were open where an incumbent did not run for re-election, which means that 47.9% of the 144 incumbents chose to run for re-election.
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#[[New Jersey]]: 28.3%. In New Jersey, 34 out of 120 seats were open where an incumbent did not run for re-election, which means that 72.7% of the 120 incumbents chose to run for re-election.
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#[[Mississippi]]: 10.3%. In Mississippi, 18 out of 174 seats were open where an incumbent did not run for re-election, which means that 89.7% of the 174 incumbents chose to run for re-election.
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#[[Virginia]]: 7.1%. In Virginia, 10 out of 140 seats were open where an incumbent did not run for re-election, which means that 92.9% of the 140 incumbents chose to run for re-election.
  
 
==Primary challenges==
 
==Primary challenges==
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:: ''Main article: [[Incumbents with no primary challenger in the 2007 state legislative elections]]''
 
:: ''Main article: [[Incumbents with no primary challenger in the 2007 state legislative elections]]''
  
'''Least competitive state'''
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The states as ranked based on having the most primary challengers are: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
 
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'''Most competitive state'''
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+
  
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#[[Louisiana]]: 43.5%. In Louisiana, 30 out of 69 incumbents running for election in 2007 faced a primary, which means that 56.5% of the 69 incumbents running automatically advanced to the general election.
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#[[Mississippi]]: 29.5%. In Mississippi, 46 out of 156 incumbents running for election in 2007 faced a primary, which means that 70.5% of the 156 incumbents running automatically advanced to the general election.
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#[[New Jersey]]: 18.6%. In New Jersey, 16 out of 86 incumbents running for election in 2007 faced a primary, which means that 81.4% of the 86 incumbents running automatically advanced to the general election.
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#[[Virginia]]: 6.2%. In Virginia, 8 out of 130 incumbents running for election in 2007 faced a primary, which means that 93.9% of the 122 incumbents running automatically advanced to the general election.
  
 
==No opposition==
 
==No opposition==
 
:: ''Main article: [[Major party candidates with no major party challengers in the November 2007 state legislative elections]]''
 
:: ''Main article: [[Major party candidates with no major party challengers in the November 2007 state legislative elections]]''
'''Least competitive state'''
 
 
 
'''Most competitive state'''
 
 
  
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The states as ranked based on fewest no opposition general elections are: New Jersey, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia.
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#[[New Jersey]]: 8.3%. In New Jersey, 10 of 120 seats up for election contain only one major party candidate, meaning in 91.8% of the races there are Democratic and Republican candidates.
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#[[Louisiana]]: 43.1%. In Louisiana, 62 of 144 seats up for election contain only one major party candidate, meaning in 56.9% of the races there are Democratic and Republican candidates.
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#[[Mississippi]]: 60.3%. In Mississippi, 105 of 174 seats up for election contain only one major party candidate, meaning in 39.7% of the races there are Democratic and Republican candidates.
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#[[Virginia]]: 65.7%. In Virginia, 92 of 140 seats up for election contain only one major party candidate, meaning in 34.3% of the races there are Democratic and Republican candidates.
  
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==See also==
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*[[State legislative elections, 2007]]
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{{competitiveness}}
 
{{state legislatures}}
 
{{state legislatures}}
 
[[Category:Competitiveness analysis of state legislative elections, 2007]]
 
[[Category:Competitiveness analysis of state legislative elections, 2007]]

Latest revision as of 08:14, 24 October 2011

2007 Competitiveness Overview
3Competitive 2007.jpg
Primary competition (state comparison)
Major party challengers (state comparison)
Open seats (state comparisons)
Competitiveness IndexAbsolute Index
Comparisons Between Years
2007 State Legislative Elections
Competitiveness Studies from Other Years
200920102011
By Geoff Pallay with Kevin Diana, Tyler King and Justin Haas

578 of the country's 7,384 state legislative seats were up for election in the November 6, 2007 elections.

The following states held elections.

This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2007's state legislative elections. The analysis utilized this 3-factor "Competitiveness Index".

Using our 3-factor "Competitiveness Index", we've contrasted three states that held elections.

Status Senate House Total
Seats up 171 407 578
Incumbents running 133 308 441
 % with no incumbent 23.2% 24.3% 13.7%
Incumbents with no primary 101 240 341
 % with no primary 75.9% 77.9% 77.3%
Candidates with no major party opposition 69 201 270
 % with no major party opposition 40.4% 49.4% 46.7%

Overall comparisons

State legislature Primary contests Major party competition Open seats Overall rank
Louisiana 1 2 1 1
Mississippi 2 3 3 3
New Jersey 3 1 2 2
Virginia 4 4 4 4

Open seats

3Competitive 2007.jpg
Main article: Open seats in the 2007 state legislative elections

The states as ranked based on percentage of open seats are: Louisiana, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Virginia.

  1. Louisiana: 52.1%. In Louisiana, 75 out of 144 seats were open where an incumbent did not run for re-election, which means that 47.9% of the 144 incumbents chose to run for re-election.
  2. New Jersey: 28.3%. In New Jersey, 34 out of 120 seats were open where an incumbent did not run for re-election, which means that 72.7% of the 120 incumbents chose to run for re-election.
  3. Mississippi: 10.3%. In Mississippi, 18 out of 174 seats were open where an incumbent did not run for re-election, which means that 89.7% of the 174 incumbents chose to run for re-election.
  4. Virginia: 7.1%. In Virginia, 10 out of 140 seats were open where an incumbent did not run for re-election, which means that 92.9% of the 140 incumbents chose to run for re-election.

Primary challenges

Main article: Incumbents with no primary challenger in the 2007 state legislative elections

The states as ranked based on having the most primary challengers are: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.

  1. Louisiana: 43.5%. In Louisiana, 30 out of 69 incumbents running for election in 2007 faced a primary, which means that 56.5% of the 69 incumbents running automatically advanced to the general election.
  2. Mississippi: 29.5%. In Mississippi, 46 out of 156 incumbents running for election in 2007 faced a primary, which means that 70.5% of the 156 incumbents running automatically advanced to the general election.
  3. New Jersey: 18.6%. In New Jersey, 16 out of 86 incumbents running for election in 2007 faced a primary, which means that 81.4% of the 86 incumbents running automatically advanced to the general election.
  4. Virginia: 6.2%. In Virginia, 8 out of 130 incumbents running for election in 2007 faced a primary, which means that 93.9% of the 122 incumbents running automatically advanced to the general election.

No opposition

Main article: Major party candidates with no major party challengers in the November 2007 state legislative elections

The states as ranked based on fewest no opposition general elections are: New Jersey, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia.

  1. New Jersey: 8.3%. In New Jersey, 10 of 120 seats up for election contain only one major party candidate, meaning in 91.8% of the races there are Democratic and Republican candidates.
  2. Louisiana: 43.1%. In Louisiana, 62 of 144 seats up for election contain only one major party candidate, meaning in 56.9% of the races there are Democratic and Republican candidates.
  3. Mississippi: 60.3%. In Mississippi, 105 of 174 seats up for election contain only one major party candidate, meaning in 39.7% of the races there are Democratic and Republican candidates.
  4. Virginia: 65.7%. In Virginia, 92 of 140 seats up for election contain only one major party candidate, meaning in 34.3% of the races there are Democratic and Republican candidates.

See also