Arizona Gubernatorial election, 2014

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Arizona Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
August 26, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Race rating: Lean Republican

November 4 Election Winner:
Doug Ducey Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Jan Brewer Republican Party
JanBrewer Portrait.jpg

Arizona State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Mine Inspector, Treasurer, Superintendent, Public Service Commissioner

Battleground Races
Arizona State Senate

Current trifecta for Republicans
WhoRunsTheStates Badge.jpg
State executive offices in Arizona
Flag of Arizona.png
The Arizona gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014, following a primary on August 26. Incumbent Jan Brewer, a Republican who went from Arizona Secretary of State to Arizona Governor following former Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano's 2009 departure, won a full term as governor in 2010 and is ineligible for re-election in 2014 because of term limits.

Brewer initially considered mounting a legal challenge to the term limit laws barring her from seeking a second consecutive 4-year term, but ultimately conceded the issue. She will hand over the office to her elected successor in January 2015. The race is rated "Likely R" by The Cook Political Report, meaning the open seat is expected to be won by another Republican during the 2014 electoral cycle.[1]

Arizona is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. The primary is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[2][3][4]

Deadline Event
May 28, 2014 Filing deadline for major party candidates
July 17, 2014 Filing deadline for write-in candidates (Primary)
August 26, 2014 Primary election
September 25, 2014 Filing deadline for write-in candidates (General)
November 4, 2014 General election
December 1, 2014 Official Canvass of general election results
January 5, 2015 Inauguration day for state executive officials in general election

Candidates

Note: The following list of candidates is not official and will continue to be updated until the 2014 candidate filing deadline. Candidates will be added as we come across them prior to the deadline. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

General election

Republican Party Doug Ducey Green check mark transparent.png[5][6]
Democratic Party Fred DuVal[7]
Libertarian Party Barry J. Hess[8][9]
Independent (Americans Elect) J.L. Mealer[10]
Independent (Write-in) J. Johnson
Independent (Write-in) Diana-Elizabeth Kennedy
Independent (Write-in) Brian Bailey[11]
Independent (Write-in) Carey Dolego[11]
Republican Party (Write-in) Alice Novoa
Unaffiliated, Curtis Woolsey

Term-limited

Republican Party Jan Brewer - Incumbent

Lost in the primary

Republican Party Mike Aloisi[12]
Republican Party Ken Bennett[13]
Republican Party Christine Jones[14]
Republican Party (Write-in) Alice Lukasik[15]
Republican Party Frank Riggs[16]
Republican Party Scott Smith[17][18]
Republican Party Andrew Thomas[5][19]

Primary results

Republican primary - August 26, 2014

Governor of Arizona Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey 37.2% 200,607
Scott Smith 22.1% 119,107
Christine Jones 16.7% 89,922
Ken Bennett 11.5% 62,010
Andrew Thomas 8.1% 43,822
Frank Riggs 4.5% 24,168
Mike Aloisi (Write-in) 0% 27
Alice Lukasik (Write-in) 0% 27
Total Votes 539,690
Election Results Via:Arizona Secretary of State.

Democratic primary

Uncontested

Race background

Outside money in the gubernatorial race

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) and other outside groups supporting Doug Ducey (R) spent $3.4 million through mid-October on TV ads to portray Fred DuVal (D) as a puppet of lobbyists and special interests in Arizona. An analysis by The Republic showed that Ducey and DuVal were both recipients of significant campaign contributions from lobbyists. This analysis revealed that lobbyists contributed $185,000 to Ducey and $250,000 to DuVal by the report's publication on October 26. The Republic showed that 11 percent of DuVal's overall contributions in 2014 came from lobbyists, placing this analysis into context.[20]

Term limits for Gov. Brewer

Incumbent Jan Brewer (R) was term-limited from seeking re-election, leaving the seat open for the 2014 electoral cycle. The race was rated "Likely R" by The Cook Political Report, meaning Brewer would be succeeded by another Republican.[21] Meanwhile, Governing rated the general election between major party nominees Doug Ducey (R) and Fred DuVal (D) as a "Toss-up."[22]

Brewer was originally appointed to the position in 2009 and was elected once in 2010. Arizona's term limit laws preclude any individual who has occupied the governor's office during two consecutive terms from running for re-election. Brewer and some of her supporters asserted that the law does not adequately account for the conditions of Brewer's incomplete first term. Hints that Brewer would pursue an exemption from the term-limit law or otherwise attempt to circumvent the eligibility restriction began in November 2012 and persisted until March 2014. A crowded field of Republican hopefuls rushed into the race to replace Brewer as Arizona's chief executive official before the first filing window closed in May. Former Arizona Board of Regents President Fred DuVal earned an automatic pass to the general election as the sole Democratic Party entrant.

Heated Republican primary

The hotly contested GOP primary attracted several big names from government and the private sector, such as outgoing Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey, Secretary of State Ken Bennett, Mesa mayor Scott Smith and former GoDaddy.com executive vice president Christine Jones. Ducey looked to be the front-runner in the months leading up to the primary, owing to a consistent polling lead and strong name recognition, although Smith and Jones were close on his tail. After Ducey won the Republican primary on August 26, 2014, defeated challengers Thomas and Riggs immediately endorsed Ducey. Bennett, Smith and Jones, however, in an act that defied post-primary custom, all declined to give the nominee their automatic support. The trio of former candidates also skipped the Arizona Republican Party "unity breakfast" held the morning after election day. Explaining their reticence to the Arizona Republic the day after Ducey's primary victory, the recently eliminated contenders cited some unspecified "issues" with some of Ducey's stances and their lingering skepticism over Ducey's account of his role in a legal dispute stemming from the 2007 sale of Cold Stone Creamery.[23] In the subsequent weeks, all three came around to backing Ducey for the general election.[24]

Rounding out the ballot

With all eyes trained on the GOP contest in the final stretch of the primary campaign season, the number of minor-party and unaffiliated contenders who qualified or were in the process of qualifying for placement on the November 4 ballot swelled to 17. After the primary, Ducey joined DuVal and this diverse pool of lesser known candidates seeking to fill the open governor's seat.[25][26]

Polls

General election
Ducey vs. DuVal vs. Hess

Arizona Governor - General election match-ups
Poll Doug Ducey (R) Fred DuVal (D)Barry J. Hess (L)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)
February 3-6, 2014
32%32%6%30%+/-3.5500
The Arizona Republic
August 24-25, 2014
35%35%12%18%+/-4.0588
Terrance (R-Arizona Free Enterprise Club)
September 15-17, 2014
44%38%6%11%+/-4.5505
Keating (D-Restore Arizona's Future PAC)
September 17-19, 2014
41%39%7%13%+/-4.0600
Moore Information
October 7-8, 2014
36%39%3%22%+/-4.9400
American Encore
October 20-22, 2014
42%35%7%15%+/-4601
AVERAGES 38.33% 36.33% 6.83% 18.17% +/-4.15 532.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Ducey vs. Duval

Governor of Arizona - Ducey vs. DuVal
Poll Doug Ducey (R) Fred DuVal (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Susquehanna Polling and Research
November 2013
36%33%31%+/--600
Rasmussen Reports
August 27-28, 2014
40%40%13%+/-4.0850
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
September 20-October 1, 2014
50%39%11%+/-32,808
Rasmussen Reports
October 14-16, 2014
47%42%10%+/-31,056
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014
50%40%10%+/-42,621
AVERAGES 44.6% 38.8% 15% +/-1.2 1,587
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Primary polling
Republican primary

Arizona Governor - GOP Primary
Poll Ken Bennett Doug DuceyChristine JonesFrank RiggsScott SmithAndrew ThomasUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling
June 25-26, 2014
12%33%15%2%14%3%22%+/-3.48791
Magellan Strategies
July 9-10, 2014
11%26%22%2%14%6%19%+/-4.02593
Gravis Marketing
July 14, 2014
7%28%19%1%14%8%24%+/-4.0691
Harper Polling
July 16-17, 2014
12%23%21%1%13%7%22%+/-3.29885
Arizona Automobile Dealers Association
August 15, 2014
10%31%16%3%23%7%10%1,300
Harper Polling
August 19-20, 2014
14%32%16%2%19%7%10%+/-3.44812
AVERAGES 11% 28.83% 18.17% 1.83% 16.17% 6.33% 17.83% +/-3.04 845.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican primary

Arizona Governor - GOP primary
Poll Ken Bennett Christine JonesAl MelvinAndrew ThomasDoug DuceyScott SmithUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Susquehanna Polling and Research
(November 2013)
20%4%2%4%8%6%53%+/--245
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign media

Doug Ducey


Doug Ducey: "Direct Message" - Posted to YouTube at 4/29/14


Scott Smith


Proven Results - Posted to YouTube 7/10/14

Protecting Arizona - Posted to YouTube 7/9/14

Scott Smith for Arizona Governor 2014 - Posted to YouTube 6/10/14

Additional reading

See also

External links

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Suggest a link

References

  1. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," August 15, 2014
  2. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  3. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  4. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  5. 5.0 5.1 East Valley Tribune, State treasurer Doug Ducey files paperwork to explore Ariz governor run, July 23, 2013
  6. Doug Ducey for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 1, 2013
  7. Fred DuVal Governor 2014, accessed April 2, 2013
  8. ABC 15, LIST: Race heats up for Arizona Governor, January 9, 2014
  9. The Republic, "Libertarian candidate to be on ballot in Arizona governor's race after GOP challenge dismissed," June 19, 2014
  10. J.L. Mealer Governor 2014, accessed July 25, 2013
  11. 11.0 11.1 Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 General Election Writein Candidates," accessed September 29, 2014
  12. Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Election Writein Candidates," accessed July 3, 2014
  13. Eastern Arizona Courier, "Bennett announces candidacy," September 17, 2013
  14. Christine Jones for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 19, 2013
  15. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named fulllisting
  16. The Arizona Republic, "Former California congressman enters Arizona governor race," January 23, 2014
  17. azcentral.com, "Mesa Mayor Smith will quit to run for governor," January 9, 2014
  18. Politico, "Republican mayor Scott Smith rises in Arizona," March 8, 2013
  19. The Arizona Republic, "Disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney Thomas to run for governor," April 26, 2013
  20. AZCentral.com, "Lobbyists aid campaigns of Doug Ducey, Fred DuVal," October 26, 2014
  21. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  22. Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  23. The Arizona Republic, "Ducey's key GOP rivals in no rush to end," August 29, 2014
  24. Fox10Phoenix.com, "Defeated candidates for GOP nomination back Ducey," September 4, 2014
  25. The New York Times, "Gov. Jan Brewer of Arizona Won’t Seek Re-election," March 12, 2014
  26. Arizona Republic, "Kanefield: Constitution clears Brewer to pursue another term," November 15, 2012