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{{tnr}}<center>'''Note:'' This page is in progress. The report is not completed yet.'''</center><hr>{{who runs states vnt}}In April 2013, the Ballotpedia staff created a report titled ''Who Runs the States'', which analyzed partisan breakdown of government control in the 50 states and overlaid that with quality of life indices.
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{{tnr}}{{who runs states vnt}}{{who runs the states intro}}
  
This page takes a specific look at how New Jersey performed in the study.
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This page takes a specific look at how New Jersey performed in the [[Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States|study]].
 
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==New Jersey breakdown==
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*Over the past 22 years, the New Jersey government has been divided for eight years and had 14 total trifectas. 
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**Of these 14 trifectas, six were Democratic and eight were Republican. 
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*There were 10 years of Democratic governors and 12 of Republican governors during this period. 
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*The New Jersey legislature has been split for two years, under Democratic control for 10 years, and under Republican control for 10 years.
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==Background about the study==
 
==Background about the study==
{{Ballotpedia: Who runs the states}}
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{{Who runs the states summary}}
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==Part 1: Partisanship analysis==
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===New Jersey Governor===
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From 1992 to 2013, New Jersey had Democratic governors in office for 10 years while there were Republican governors in office for 12 years, including the last four.
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Across the country, there were 493 years of Democratic governors (44.82%) and 586 years of Republican governors (53.27%) from 1992-2013.
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Over the course of the 22-year study, state governments became increasingly more partisan. At the outset of the study period (1992), 18 of the 49 states with partisan legislatures had single-party trifectas and 31 states had divided governments. In 2013, only 13 states have divided governments, while single-party trifectas held sway in 36 states, the most in the 22 years studied.
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===New Jersey Senate===
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From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the New Jersey State Senate for the first 10 years and the Republicans were the majority for the last 10 years.
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Across the country, there were 541 Democratic and 517 Republican state senates from 1992 to 2013.
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===New Jersey House of Representatives===
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From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the New Jersey House of Representatives for the last 12 years and the Republicans were the majority for the first 10 years.
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Across the country, there were 577 Democratic and 483 Republican state houses of representatives from 1992 to 2013.
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The chart below shows the partisan composition of the [[Governor of New Jersey|Office of the Governor of New Jersey]], the [[New Jersey State Senate]] and the [[New Jersey House of Representatives]] from 1992-2013.
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[[File:Partisan composition of New Jersey state government(1992-2013).PNG]]
  
==Specific reports==
 
 
===Partisan control changes===
 
===Partisan control changes===
There were four partisan control changes in New Jersey during the study period.  The average number of changes in the 50 states was four, putting New Jersey at the average.
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There were four partisan control changes in New Jersey during the study period.  The average number of changes in the 50 states was four, putting New Jersey equal to the average.
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{|
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|----- valign="right"
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|[[File:New Jersey legislature pie chart 1992-2013.png|thumb|right|250px]]
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|[[File:New Jersey government pie chart 1992-2013.png|thumb|right|250px]]
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|[[File:New Jersey gubernatorial pie chart 1992-2013.png|thumb|right|250px]]
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|}
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==Part 2: State Quality of Life Index (SQLI)==
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New Jersey’s average ranking over the course of the study period was 16.33, which puts it at 14 in the overall SQLI ranking.<ref>Note: The average rank is compiled by adding up all years of rankings and then dividing by 21 to obtain the average state ranking. This average figure is ranked relative to the rest of the 49 states to derive an overall SQLI ranking.</ref>
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*The years that New Jersey had the highest ranking were 1999 and 2000, in which it ranked 6th.
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*The year that New Jersey had the lowest ranking was 2012, in which it ranked 36th.
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*The index type that New Jersey had the highest ranking in was Personal Income Per Capita and Poverty Rate, in which it ranked 2nd.
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*The index type that New Jersey had the lowest ranking in was State/Local Tax Burden, in which it ranked 49th.
  
===Quality of life results===
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{{New Jersey SQLI}}
New Jersey’s average ranking among all quality of life indices was 14.  During the 14 years when New Jersey had a trifecta, the average ranking was 13.57.  During the eight years when New Jersey had a Republican trifecta, the average ranking was 9.75.  During the six years when New Jersey had a Democratic trifecta, the average ranking was 18.67.  During the eight years when New Jersey had divided government, the average ranking was 21.86.  These results indicate a better outcome under a Republican trifecta than under either a Democratic trifecta or a divided government.
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==Part 3: Partisanship and SQLI Overlay==
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New Jersey was one of eight states to demonstrate [[Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States? Changes of Partisan Domination over 22 years|a dramatic partisan shift]] in the 22 years studied. A dramatic shift was defined by a movement of 40 percent or more toward one party over the course of the study period.  
  
===Correlation of partisanship with quality of life===
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The chart below depicts the partisanship of New Jersey state government and the state's SQLI ranking for the years studied. For the SQLI, the states were ranked from 1-50, with 1 being the best and 50 the worst. New Jersey had Republican trifectas from 1994-2001 and Democratic trifectas from 2004-2009. There were four years when New Jersey finished in the top-10, all of those years with Republican trifectas.  
Using a panel data regression with fixed effects, we explored the correlations between New Jersey’s partisanship and the performance of the state relative to other states over time. To indicate partisanship, we used our coding of one to nine (1 to 9) based on the specific combination of party control of institutions outlined in the “Overall Partisanship” section of the main report. The performance of the state was determined by the composite ranking of state “Quality of Life” relative to other states described in the “Quality of Life” section of the main report. In our regression analysis, the “Quality of Life” performance ranking served as the dependent variable and the partisan coding of the government two years prior (i.e., a two-year lag) was the independent variable. We introduced the two-year lag to allow some time for the policies of the party governments to influence state’s performance, although the implementation time for many state policies vary widely. These analyses were not designed to definitively show a causal relationship between partisanship and a state’s performance, but rather to explore trends and encourage further research.
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*SQLI average with Democratic trifecta: 18.67
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*SQLI average with Republican trifecta: 9.75
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*SQLI average with divided government: 21.86
  
This regression analysis shows that New Jersey tends to have a higher performance ranking two years after having a more Democratic government. This finding is statistically significant and indicates a non-zero relationship between the two variables, but its explanatory power is very limited, and should only be interpreted as weak correlation without further research. For more information, see Appendix C: Key Values for Individual State Regressions.
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[[File:New Jersey SQLI visualization.PNG|thumb|center|1000px|Chart displaying the partisanship of New Jersey government from 1992-2013 and the State Quality of Life Index (SQLI).]]
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
 
*[[Ballotpedia:Who runs the states]]
 
*[[Ballotpedia:Who runs the states]]
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**[[Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Part One: State Partisanship]]
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**[[Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Part Two: State Quality of Life Index (SQLI)]]
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*[[Governor of New Jersey]]
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*[[New Jersey State Senate]]
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*[[New Jersey General Assembly]]
  
 
==External links==
 
==External links==
*[Full Dataset on Google Docs]
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*[https://docs.google.com/a/ballotpedia.org/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Arq5YjCoT1vndEkyN1FGN1JlWTBtQVVIWDZjTHV1SEE Full Dataset on Google Docs]
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==Footnotes==
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{{reflist}}
  
 
{{who runs the states hnt}}
 
{{who runs the states hnt}}
 
{{New Jersey}}
 
{{New Jersey}}
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[[Category:Who runs the states project, state pages]]

Revision as of 07:50, 6 December 2013


WhoRunsTheStates Badge.png

Who Runs the States

Main Report Pages
Main PagePart 1Partisanship InfographicPart 2Part 3

Partisanship Results Report (Part 1)
Executive SummaryState Partisanship AnalysisPartisan Control of GovernorshipsPartisan Control of State LegislaturesPartisan Control of State SenatesPartisan Control of State HousesState Government TrifectasOverall Partisan Control: Bright, Medium and Soft StatesChanges of Partisan Domination over 22 yearsYear-to-Year Changes in State Partisan ControlTrifectas and Presidential Election PatternsConclusionMethodologyAppendix AAppendix B

State Quality of Life Index (SQLI) Report (Part 2)
Executive SummaryState Quality of Life Index (SQLI)About the IndexOverall RankingsDramatic Changes from 1st Half to 2nd HalfIndividual IndicatorsMethodologyAppendices

Partisanship and (SQLI) Overlay Report (Part 3)
IntroductionComparing Partisanship and the State Quality of Life Index (SQLI) RankingsDescription of the dataTrends and correlationsMethodologyKey Values for Fifty-State RegressionsAppendices
Praise or blame is extended to political parties for the economic, educational, health and other quality of life outcomes that result from the policies those parties enact into law. To better understand which political party enjoys power in each of the states, Ballotpedia has analyzed state government control from 1992-2013 using the concept of a "partisan trifecta." A partisan trifecta is defined as when a state's governorship and legislative chambers are controlled by the same political party.

The two major political parties claim that their policies will lead to better outcomes. What does the data show?

At Ballotpedia, we explored these issues in a three-part study, Who Runs the States.

This page takes a specific look at how New Jersey performed in the study.

Background about the study

See also: Ballotpedia: Who Runs the States

Part One examines the partisanship of state government from 1992-2013. Part Two establishes a State Quality of Life Index (SQLI), aggregating a variety of existing state indices into one measurement. Part Three will overlay the two reports, looking for trends and correlations.

Part 1: Partisanship analysis

New Jersey Governor

From 1992 to 2013, New Jersey had Democratic governors in office for 10 years while there were Republican governors in office for 12 years, including the last four.

Across the country, there were 493 years of Democratic governors (44.82%) and 586 years of Republican governors (53.27%) from 1992-2013.

Over the course of the 22-year study, state governments became increasingly more partisan. At the outset of the study period (1992), 18 of the 49 states with partisan legislatures had single-party trifectas and 31 states had divided governments. In 2013, only 13 states have divided governments, while single-party trifectas held sway in 36 states, the most in the 22 years studied.

New Jersey Senate

From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the New Jersey State Senate for the first 10 years and the Republicans were the majority for the last 10 years.

Across the country, there were 541 Democratic and 517 Republican state senates from 1992 to 2013.

New Jersey House of Representatives

From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the New Jersey House of Representatives for the last 12 years and the Republicans were the majority for the first 10 years.

Across the country, there were 577 Democratic and 483 Republican state houses of representatives from 1992 to 2013.

The chart below shows the partisan composition of the Office of the Governor of New Jersey, the New Jersey State Senate and the New Jersey House of Representatives from 1992-2013.

Partisan composition of New Jersey state government(1992-2013).PNG

Partisan control changes

There were four partisan control changes in New Jersey during the study period. The average number of changes in the 50 states was four, putting New Jersey equal to the average.

New Jersey legislature pie chart 1992-2013.png
New Jersey government pie chart 1992-2013.png
New Jersey gubernatorial pie chart 1992-2013.png

Part 2: State Quality of Life Index (SQLI)

New Jersey’s average ranking over the course of the study period was 16.33, which puts it at 14 in the overall SQLI ranking.[1]

  • The years that New Jersey had the highest ranking were 1999 and 2000, in which it ranked 6th.
  • The year that New Jersey had the lowest ranking was 2012, in which it ranked 36th.
  • The index type that New Jersey had the highest ranking in was Personal Income Per Capita and Poverty Rate, in which it ranked 2nd.
  • The index type that New Jersey had the lowest ranking in was State/Local Tax Burden, in which it ranked 49th.
New Jersey SQLI 1992-2012
Index 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
24/7 Wall St Best/Worst Governed States N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 21 37 46
America's Health Rankings 24 23 24 22 21 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 16 19 15 18 15 18 17 17 8
CAFR Debt/GDP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41 42 40 40 42 46 45 N/A
Chief Executive Magazine Best and Worst States for Business Survey N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 45 45 46 47 47 47 45
CNBC Top States for Business N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 15 18 24 22 30 41
Forbes Best States for Business N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 16 19 34 45 40 44 36
Govt. Employment Share Population 19 18 17 16 13 14 13 12 12 13 15 17 18 20 21 21 19 19 16 16 18
Graduation Rate 12 8 7 7 5 8 6 1 11 7 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 5 6 5 6
Personal Income Per Capita 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3
Poverty Rate 7 15 9 3 8 10 2 10 3 10 4 6 4 2 8 5 7 4 13 11 N/A
Real GDP per capita 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 N/A
S&P Credit Rating N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 11 21 20 36 17 20 21 24 26 26 45 45
State Govt. Spending/GDP 32 22 23 30 22 14 18 13 11 14 17 20 21 24 25 22 20 21 26 27 N/A
State & local tax burden 49 48 49 48 48 46 46 48 46 48 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 N/A N/A
Tax Freedom Day N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 48
Unemployment Rate 43 45 44 44 43 37 32 33 22 20 35 33 20 19 29 24 31 31 33 37 46
Unfunded Pension Liabilities per capita N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 46 39 44 N/A
Voter Turnout 24 38 38 19 19 43 43 22 22 37 37 22 22 34 34 14 14 46 46 19 19
Well-Being Index N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 24 29 24 29 31

Part 3: Partisanship and SQLI Overlay

New Jersey was one of eight states to demonstrate a dramatic partisan shift in the 22 years studied. A dramatic shift was defined by a movement of 40 percent or more toward one party over the course of the study period.

The chart below depicts the partisanship of New Jersey state government and the state's SQLI ranking for the years studied. For the SQLI, the states were ranked from 1-50, with 1 being the best and 50 the worst. New Jersey had Republican trifectas from 1994-2001 and Democratic trifectas from 2004-2009. There were four years when New Jersey finished in the top-10, all of those years with Republican trifectas.

  • SQLI average with Democratic trifecta: 18.67
  • SQLI average with Republican trifecta: 9.75
  • SQLI average with divided government: 21.86
Chart displaying the partisanship of New Jersey government from 1992-2013 and the State Quality of Life Index (SQLI).

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Note: The average rank is compiled by adding up all years of rankings and then dividing by 21 to obtain the average state ranking. This average figure is ranked relative to the rest of the 49 states to derive an overall SQLI ranking.