Difference between revisions of "California's 10th Congressional District elections, 2012"

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m (Text replace - "[http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CA/house ''CNN'' "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center"]" to "[http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CA/house ''CNN'', "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center,")
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{{cadis10congtoc}}{{tnr}}The '''[[California's 10th Congressional District|10th Congressional District of California]]''' held an election for the [[U.S. House of Representatives]] on November 6, 2012.
 
{{cadis10congtoc}}{{tnr}}The '''[[California's 10th Congressional District|10th Congressional District of California]]''' held an election for the [[U.S. House of Representatives]] on November 6, 2012.
  
Former 19th District incumbent [[Jeff Denham]] (R) won the election.<ref name="cnnr">[http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CA/house ''CNN'' "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center"]</ref>
+
Former 19th District incumbent [[Jeff Denham]] (R) won the election.<ref name="cnnr">[http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CA/house ''CNN'', "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center," accessed December 1, 2012]</ref>
  
 
[[File:CA10.jpg|thumb|300px|This is the 10th Congressional District prior to the [[Redistricting in California|2010 redistricting]].]]
 
[[File:CA10.jpg|thumb|300px|This is the 10th Congressional District prior to the [[Redistricting in California|2010 redistricting]].]]

Revision as of 00:27, 8 April 2014

2014



CongressLogo.png

California's 10th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
June 5, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Jeff Denham Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
John Garamendi Democratic Party
John Garamendi.jpg

California U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13District 14District 15District 16District 17District 18District 19District 20District 21District 22District 23District 24District 25District 26District 27District 28District 29District 30District 31District 32District 33District 34District 35District 36District 37District 38District 39District 40District 41District 42District 43District 44District 45District 46District 47District 48District 49District 50District 51District 52District 53

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of California.png
The 10th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

Former 19th District incumbent Jeff Denham (R) won the election.[1]

This is the 10th Congressional District prior to the 2010 redistricting.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 9, 2012
June 5, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: California has a top-two primary system, in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, go on to the general election.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 21. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 22.[2]

See also: California elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was John Garamendi (D), who was first elected in 2009.

According to a Cook Political Report analysis, the 10th District was 1 of 13 congressional districts in California that was at least somewhat competitive in 2012. The analysis rated it as Leans Republican.[3]

This was the first election which used new district maps based on 2010 Census data. California's 10th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Stanislaus County and southern San Joaquin County.[4]

Blanket primary

This was the first election year in which California's Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act was in effect. Because of this, all candidates for a seat competed in one blanket primary. The two candidates who received the most votes then advanced to the general election on November 6.

The proposition's intent was to encourage primary competition, which backers of the act said would lead to more moderate legislators being elected. Despite this intention, only a few centrists successfully advanced to the general election. The primary results did reflect an increase in competition, with California's percentage of contested primaries being much higher than the nationwide average.[5]

However, the increase in competition also led to an increase in campaign spending, due to the fact that competition within political parties lasted for the entire year rather than ending after the primary. Experts predict that this will only increase the power of the special interest groups that fund the campaigns.[5]

Raphael J. Sonenshein, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A., said the following, "It's hard to argue it's a better system where the incumbent congressman has a huge war chest and nobody else has any money... At least now we can make him spend it."[5]

As a result of the blanket primary, nine congressional districts had same-party candidates battling in the November 6 general election. Of those, seven were between Democrats.[6]

There were also over a dozen same-party races in the state legislature in November.[6]

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Jose Hernandez
Republican Party Jeff Denham Green check mark transparent.png


June 5, 2012, primary results

Election results

U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Denham Incumbent 52.7% 110,265
     Democratic Jose Hernandez 47.3% 98,934
Total Votes 209,199
Source: California Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"
U.S. House, California District 10 Open Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Denham (R) Incumbent 49.2% 45,779
Green check mark transparent.pngJose Hernandez (D) 28% 26,072
Chad Condit (NPP) 15% 13,983
Michael Barkley (D) 5.4% 5,028
Toroy Wayne McComak (NPP) 2.3% 2,114
Total Votes 92,976

Race background

Competitiveness

California's 10th was considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Incumbent Republican Jeff Denham was challenged by Jose Hernandez, a first-time candidate. Registration was slightly in the Democrats favor.[9]

The new 10th District was seen as a "swing seat that could result in Nancy Pelosi re-claiming the position of Speaker" if Jose Hernandez won the election. Hernandez said the following about the election, "This is a district with two distinct candidates and there’s a clear contrast between us... (Denham) is a typical conservative ...I’m a typical Democrat with values that mirror hard work and perseverance.” Denham stated, "For me, it’s more about Valley jobs and Valley issues... That’s what I’ve been doing for the past year-and-a-half in Congress and that’s what I plan to do in the future.”[10]

California's 10th District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[11]

Incumbent Jeff Denham was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.[12]

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for California's 10th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."[13]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in California

The 10th District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[15][16]

Registration statistics

As of October 23, 2012, District 10 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the California Secretary of State:

California Congressional District 10[17]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 10 296,206 119,579 114,269 62,358 Democratic 4.65% -59.64%
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. California's 10th District became more Democratic because of redistricting.[18]

  • 2012: 48D / 52R
  • 2010: 43D / 57R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. California's 10th Congressional District has a PVI of R+5, which is the 187th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 51-49 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 58-42 percent over John Kerry (D).[19]

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.

Jose Hernandez

Jose Hernandez (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[20]April 15, 2012$130,527.35$314,788.01$(121,873.99)$323,441.37
Pre-Primary[21]May 24, 2012$323,441.37$114,150.79$(70,330.97)$367,261.19
Running totals
$428,938.8$(192,204.96)

Jeff Denham

Jeff Denham (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[22]April 15, 2012$809,526.96$274,200.56$(115,313.43)$968,414.09
Pre-Primary[23]May 24, 2012$968,414.09$160,921.83$(104,675.97)$1,024,659.95
Running totals
$435,122.39$(219,989.4)

Chamber of commerce spending

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent a total of $3.3 million on television advertisements aimed at electing ten California Republican congressional candidates, Democratic sources told Hotline.[24]

In California's 10th Congressional District, The Chamber spent $497,000 to elect Jeff Denham.[24]

District history

Candidate ballot accecss
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2010

On November 2, 2010, John Garamendi won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Gary Clift and Jeremy Cloward in the general election.[25]

U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Garamendi Incumbent 58.8% 137,578
     Republican Gary Clift 37.9% 88,512
     Green Jeremy Cloward 3.3% 7,716
Total Votes 233,806

See also

External links

References

  1. CNN, "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center," accessed December 1, 2012
  2. California Secretary of State "Elections FAQ," Accessed July 20, 2012
  3. The Cook Political Report 2012 Competitive House Race Chart
  4. California Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012
  5. 5.0 5.1 5.2 Los Angeles Times, "Few centrists advance in California's new primary system," June 7, 2012
  6. 6.0 6.1 Reuters, "Democrats face Democrats in new California election system," June 6, 2012
  7. "Political boundaries could lead to legal fight", tracypress.com, August 16, 2011
  8. 8.0 8.1 "Astronaut Challenging Freshman Jeff Denham", rollcall.com, October 13, 2011
  9. New York Times "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 7, 2012
  10. Ivn.us, "California Incumbents Face New Challenges In November," July 18, 2012
  11. DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
  12. NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
  13. Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  14. The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012
  15. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer "California's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  16. Labels & Lists "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  17. California Secretary of State, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," May 21, 2012
  18. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in California," September 2012
  19. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  20. Federal Election Commission, "Jose Hernandez April Quarterly," Accessed July 10, 2012
  21. Federal Election Commission, "Jose Hernandez Pre-Primary," Accessed July 10, 2012
  22. Federal Election Commission, "Jeff Denham April Quarterly," Accessed July 10, 2012
  23. Federal Election Commission, "Jeff Denham Pre-Primary," Accessed July 10, 2012
  24. 24.0 24.1 National Journal, "Chamber Drops $3.3 Million for California Repubs," September 27, 2012
  25. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"