California's 31st congressional district elections, 2012
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| November 6, 2012 |
| June 5, 2012 |
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Xavier Becerra  |
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42nd district incumbent Gary Miller (R) won the election.[1]
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Primary: California has a top-two primary system, in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, go on to the general election.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 21. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 22.[2]
- See also: California elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Xavier Becerra (D), who was first elected in 1992. However, due to heavy redistricting, the current incumbent of the district will most likely no longer remain in the district.
According to a Cook Political Report analysis, the 31st district is one of 13 congressional districts in California that may be competitive in 2012. The analysis rated it as Republican Toss Up.[3]
This will be the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. California's 31st congressional district is located in the southern portion of the state and includes the southwestern corner of San Bernardino County.[4]
Blanket primary
This was the first election year in which California's Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act was in effect. Because of this, all candidates for a seat competed in one blanket primary. The two candidates who received the most votes then advanced to the general election on November 6.
The proposition's intent was to encourage primary competition, which backers of the act said would lead to more moderate legislators being elected. Despite this intention, only a few centrists successfully advanced to the general election. The primary results did reflect an increase in competition, with California's percentage of contested primaries being much higher than the nationwide average.[5]
However, the increase in competition has also led to an increase in campaign spending, due to the fact that competition within political parties will last for the entire year rather than ending after the primary. Experts predict that this will only increase the power of the special interest groups that fund the campaigns.[5]
Raphael J. Sonenshein, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A., said the following, "It's hard to argue it's a better system where the incumbent congressman has a huge war chest and nobody else has any money... At least now we can make him spend it."[5]
As a result of the blanket primary, nine of California's 53 congressional districts will have same-party candidates battling in the November 6 general election. Of those, seven are between Democrats.[6]
There will also be over a dozen same-party races in the state legislature in November.[6]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
June 5, 2012 primary results
- Pete Aguilar [7]
- Justin Kim [8]
- Rita Ramirez-Dean [9]
- Renea Wickman [10]
- Bob Dutton
Current state senator[11]
- Gary Miller District 42 incumbent [12]
Race background
Incumbent Gary Miller is a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.[13]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in California
The 31st district was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[14][15]
- 34 percent from the 26th congressional district
- 30 percent from the 41st congressional district
- 36 percent from the 43rd congressional district
Registration statistics
As of October 24, 2012, District 31 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the California Secretary of State:
| California Congressional District 31[16] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 31 | 294,019 | 119,964 | 103,904 | 70,151 | Democratic | 15.46% | -319.52% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. California's 31st District became more Democratic because of redistricting.[17]
- 2012: 54D / 46R
- 2010: 42D / 58R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. California's 31st congressional district has a PVI of D+2, which is the 179th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 58-42 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 52-48 percent over John Kerry (D).[18]
Campaign contributions
Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
Bob Dutton
| Robert Dutton (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[19] | April 13, 2012 | $0 | $107,566 | $(68,633.28) | $38,932.72 | ||||
| Pre-Primary [20] | May 24, 2012 | $38,932.72 | $34,719 | $(44,767.22) | $28,884.50 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $142,285 | $(113,400.5) | ||||||||
Gary Miller
| Gary Miller (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[21] | April 13, 2012 | $1,074,004 | $209,623.42 | $(113,938.77) | $1,169,688.65 | ||||
| Pre-Primary [22] | May 23, 2012 | $1,169,688.65 | $123,447.51 | $(438,488.16) | $854,648 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $333,070.93 | $(552,426.93) | ||||||||
Endorsements
Gary Miller was endorsed by the California Republican Party in his battle with former State Senate Minority Leader Bob Dutton. The state GOP has sent a number of mailers attacking Dutton, who "led Senate Republicans during parts of 2010 and 2011, sat on the party’s board of directors, and has raised money for the party and its causes over the years, including contributing $100,000 to last summer’s effort to overturn Senate lines deemed unfair to the GOP." Dutton's spokesman Chris Orrock said the following of the party, "For what Bob has done for this party over the last 12 years, holding the caucus together during a very difficult period, and raising the money, for them to put their name on a hit piece is disgusting."[23]
District history
2010
On November 2, 2010, Xavier Becerra won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Stephen C. Smith in the general election.[24]
| U.S. House, California District 31 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic |  Xavier Becerra Incumbent |
83.8% | 76,363 | |
| Republican | Stephen C. Smith | 16.2% | 14,740 | |
| Total Votes | 91,103 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
External links
References
- ↑ CNN "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center"
- ↑ California Secretary of State "Elections FAQ," Accessed July 20, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report 2012 Competitive House Race Chart
- ↑ California Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Los Angeles Times, "Few centrists advance in California's new primary system," June 7, 2012
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Reuters, "Democrats face Democrats in new California election system," June 6, 2012
- ↑ "Lewis to retire after redistricting makes seat more favorable to Democrats", examiner.com, January 12, 2012
- ↑ LomaLinda Patch "Loma Linda Native Joins Race for Congressional Seat," Accessed March 10, 2012
- ↑ Roll Call "Redlands Mayor to Run for Congress," Accessed March 10, 2012
- ↑ "ELECTIONS 2012: Wickman seeks congressional seat", pe.com, October 13, 2011
- ↑ Loma Linda Patch "Sen. Dutton's Entry Adds Intrigue to Race," January 19, 2012
- ↑ "Lewis to retire after redistricting makes seat more favorable to Democrats" examiner.com, January 12, 2012
- ↑ NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer "California's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," May 21, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in California," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Robert Dutton April Quarterly," Accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Robert Dutton Pre-Primary," Accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Gary Miller April Quarterly," Accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Gary Miller Pre-Primary," Accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ The Press-Enterprise, "ELECTION 2012: State GOP slams Dutton in mailers," October 24, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
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