Difference between revisions of "California's 47th Congressional District elections, 2012"

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{{tnr}}The '''[[California's 47th congressional district|47th congressional district of California]]''' will hold an election for the [[U.S. House of Representatives]] on November 6, 2012.
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{{cadis47congtoc12}}{{tnr}}The '''[[California's 47th congressional district|47th congressional district of California]]''' held an election for the [[U.S. House of Representatives]] on November 6, 2012.
 +
 
 +
State senator [[Alan Lowenthal]] (D) won the election.<ref name="cnnr">[http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CA/house ''CNN'' "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center"]</ref>
 +
 
 
[[File:CA47.jpg|thumb|300px|This is the 47th congressional district prior to the [[Redistricting in California|2010 redistricting]].]]
 
[[File:CA47.jpg|thumb|300px|This is the 47th congressional district prior to the [[Redistricting in California|2010 redistricting]].]]
Candidates wishing to run must file by the [[Signature requirements and deadlines for 2012 U.S. Congress elections|signature filing deadline]] of March 9, 2012. The primary election will be held on June 5, 2012.
+
{{Congintro2012
 +
|Filing deadline=March 9, 2012
 +
|Primary date=June 5, 2012
 +
|Primary=California has a [[Blanket primary|top-two primary]] system, in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, go on to the general election.
 +
|Voter registration=Voters had to register to [[Voting in the 2012 primary elections|vote in the primary]] by May 21. For the [[Voting in the 2012 general elections|general election]], the voter registration deadline was October 22.<ref>[http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_faq.htm#vr ''California Secretary of State'' "Elections FAQ," Accessed July 20, 2012]</ref>
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|State=California
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|Incumbent=Heading into the election the incumbent was [[Loretta Sanchez]] (D), who was first elected in 1996. }}
  
Heading into the election the incumbent is [[Loretta Sanchez]] (D), who was first elected in 1996.  However, due to heavy redistricting, the current incumbent of the district will most likely no longer remain in the district.
+
According to a Cook Political Report analysis, the 47th district was one of 13 congressional districts in California that was at least somewhat competitive in 2012.  The analysis rated it as Likely Democratic.<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2012-02-17_07-56-55.php The Cook Political Report 2012 Competitive House Race Chart]</ref>
 +
 
 +
This was the first election which used [[Congressional redistricting maps implemented after the 2010 Census|new district maps based on 2010 Census data]]. [[California's 47th congressional district]] is located in the southern portion of the [[California|state]] and includes part of Orange County.<ref>[http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/File:CA_8,15,11_redistricting_map.png ''California Redistricting Map'' "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012]</ref>
 +
 
 +
==Blanket primary==
 +
This was the first election year in which California's [[California Proposition 14, Top Two Primaries Act (June 2010)|Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act]] was in effect.  Because of this, all candidates for a seat competed in one [[blanket primary]].  The two candidates who received the most votes then advanced to the general election on November 6. 
 +
 
 +
The proposition's intent was to encourage primary competition, which backers of the act said would lead to more moderate legislators being elected.  Despite this intention, only a few centrists successfully advanced to the general election.  The primary results did reflect an increase in competition, with California's percentage of contested primaries being much higher than the nationwide average.<ref name=times>[http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-legislature-20120607,0,7634350.story ''Los Angeles Times,'' "Few centrists advance in California's new primary system," June 7, 2012]</ref>
 +
 
 +
However, the increase in competition also led to an increase in campaign spending, due to the fact that competition within political parties lasted for the entire year rather than ending after the primary.  Experts predict that this will only increase the power of the special interest groups that fund the campaigns.<ref name=times/>
 +
 
 +
Raphael J. Sonenshein, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A., said the following, "It's hard to argue it's a better system where the incumbent congressman has a huge war chest and nobody else has any money... At least now we can make him spend it."<ref name=times/>
 +
 
 +
As a result of the blanket primary, nine of California's 53 congressional districts had same-party candidates battling in the November 6 general election.  Of those, seven were between Democrats.<ref name=reuters>[http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/07/us-usa-campaign-primaries-idUSBRE85602U20120607 ''Reuters,'' "Democrats face Democrats in new California election system," June 6, 2012]</ref>
 +
 
 +
There were also over a dozen same-party races in the [[California State Legislature|state legislature]] in November.<ref name=reuters/>
  
 
==Candidates==
 
==Candidates==
===Primary election===
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{{Candidate list noteB|Date=October 1, 2012}}
'''''Note:''''' ''Due to California's recently adopted Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act, all candidates compete in one primary.  The two who receive the most votes move on to the general election, regardless of any party affiliation.
+
 
*{{bluedot}} [[Alan Lowenthal]]: [[California State Senate|State senator]] <ref>[http://www.rollcall.com/news/Alan-Lowenthal-Congress-Long-Beach-California-206586-1.html "State Senator Announces Bid in New Long Beach District", ''rollcall.com'', June 17, 2011]</ref>
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{{Cacong47cand12}}
*{{reddot}} [[Gary DeLong]]: Member of the Long Beach City Council <ref>[http://www.lbpost.com/news/staffreports/12198 "UPDATE: Councilmember Gary DeLong Announces Run for Congress, Endorsed By Governor Deukmejian and Supervisor Knabe", ''lbpost.com'', August 17, 2011]</ref>
+
 
*{{reddot}} [[Troy Edgar]]: Former member of the Los Alamitos City Council <ref>[http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19132529 "Delong, Edgar top campaign fundraisers in Long Beach race", ''contracostatimes.com'', October 17, 2011]</ref>
+
==Election Results==
*{{reddot}} [[Steve Kuykendall]]: Former U.S. representative <ref>[http://www.lbpost.com/news/staffreports/12246 "EXCLUSIVE: Former Rep. Steven Kuykendall To Run For 47th Congressional District", ''lbpost.com'', August 24, 2011]</ref>
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===General election===
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{{Cadis47genelecbox12}}
 +
 
 +
==Race background==
 +
California's 47th was considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the ''New York Times'' race ratings. Democrats had a 10% edge in registration, but Republicans thought it was possible to gain the seat with [[Gary DeLong]], who is portrayed as a moderate Republican. <ref>[http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house ''New York Times'' "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 7, 2012]</ref>
 +
 
 +
California's 47th District was included in the [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee#Red to Blue|Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]]'s "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.<ref>[http://www.dccc.org/pages/redtoblue ''DCCC,'' "Red to Blue 2012"]</ref>
 +
 
 +
Republican challenger [[Gary DeLong]] was included in the [[National Republican Congressional Committee#Young Guns|National Republican Congressional Committee]]'s Young Guns program. The program highlighted challengers who represented the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.<ref>[http://gopyoungguns.com/candidates/ ''NRCC'' "Young Guns 2012"]</ref>
  
 
==Impact of redistricting==
 
==Impact of redistricting==
 
::''See also: [[Redistricting in California]]''
 
::''See also: [[Redistricting in California]]''
 +
 +
The [[California's 47th congressional district|47th district]] was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.<ref>[http://www.censusviewer.com/district-maps/2012/09/california-congressional-districts-comparison-2001-2011/ ''Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer'' "California's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"]</ref><ref>[http://www.votermapping.com ''Labels & Lists'' "VoterMapping software voter counts"]</ref>
 +
*35 percent from the [[California's 37th congressional district|37th congressional district]]
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*3 percent from the [[California's 39th congressional district|39th congressional district]]
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*31 percent from the [[California's 40th congressional district|40th congressional district]]
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*21 percent from the [[California's 46th congressional district|46th congressional district]]
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*10 percent from the [[California's 47th congressional district|47th congressional district]]
 +
 +
===Registration statistics===
 +
 +
As of October 24, 2012, District 47 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the California Secretary of State:
 +
{| border="1" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" style="margin: 1em 1em 1em 0; background: #f9f9f9; border: 1px #a3bfb1 solid;" width=70%;
 +
|- style="background-color:#9400d3; color: white;"
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! colspan="8" | California Congressional District 47<ref>[http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/15day-presprim-12/congressional1.xls ''California Secretary of State,'' "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," May 21, 2012]</ref>
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|-bgcolor="#cef2e0 align="center"
 +
!Congressional District
 +
!District Total
 +
!Democrats
 +
!Republicans
 +
!Other & Unaffiliated
 +
!Advantage
 +
!Party Advantage
 +
!Change in Advantage from 2010
 +
|-
 +
|District 47
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|358,906
 +
|151,927
 +
|111,176
 +
|95,803
 +
|style="background-color:blue; color: white;"|Democratic
 +
|36.65%
 +
| -14.98%
 +
|-
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| colspan="8" align="center" |<small>"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.</small>
 +
|}
 +
 +
===District partisanship===
 +
====FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study====
 +
 +
:''See also: [[FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012]]''
 +
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Partisanship figures from 2010 relating to the incumbent are unavailable for this district due to the seat being open.<ref>[http://www.fairvote.org/assets/2012-Redistricting/AZRedistrictingAnalysis.pdf,'' "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Arizona," September 2012]</ref>
 +
 +
*'''2012''': 56D / 44R
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*'''2010''': ''Unavailable''
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====Cook Political Report's PVI====
 +
 +
:''See also: [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index]]''
 +
In 2012, ''Cook Political Report'' released its updated figures on the [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index|Partisan Voter Index]], which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. [[California's 47th congressional district]] has a PVI of D+5, which is the 150th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by [[Barack Obama]] (D), 60-40 percent over [[John McCain]] (R). In 2004, [[John Kerry]] (D) won the district 52-48 percent over George W. Bush (R).<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf ''Cook Political Report'' "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012]</ref>
 +
 +
==Campaign contributions==
 +
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the [[United States Congress elections, 2012|2012 elections season]]. Below are candidate reports.
 +
===Alan Lowenthal===
 +
{{Campaign finance reports
 +
|Name = Alan Lowenthal (2012)
 +
|Political Party = Democratic
 +
|Report 1 = April Quarterly<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/042/12971258042/12971258042.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Alan Lowenthal April Quarterly," Accessed July 10, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 1 = April 15, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 1 = 169213.90
 +
|Total Contributions 1 = 172779.50
 +
|Expenditures 1 = 58777.30
 +
|Cash on Hand 1 = 283216.10
 +
|Report 2 = Pre-Primary <ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/131/12971258131/12971258131.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Alan Lowenthal Pre-Primary," Accessed July 10, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 2 = May 24, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 2 = 283216.10
 +
|Total Contributions 2 = 42175
 +
|Expenditures 2 = 88503.66
 +
|Cash on Hand 2 = 236887.44
 +
}}
 +
 +
===Gary DeLong===
 +
{{Campaign finance reports
 +
|Name = Gary DeLong (2012)
 +
|Political Party = Republican
 +
|Report 1 = April Quarterly<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/339/12951395339/12951395339.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Gary DeLong April Quarterly," Accessed July 10, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 1 = April 13, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 1 = 367485.58
 +
|Total Contributions 1 = 159553.71
 +
|Expenditures 1 = 122747.12
 +
|Cash on Hand 1 = 404292.17
 +
|Report 2 = Pre-Primary <ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/378/12951895378/12951895378.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Gary DeLong Pre-Primary," Accessed July 10, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 2 = May 24, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 2 = 404292.17
 +
|Total Contributions 2 = 58269
 +
|Expenditures 2 = 143931.68
 +
|Cash on Hand 2 = 318629.49
 +
}}
 +
 +
====Chamber of commerce spending====
 +
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent a total of $3.3 million on television advertisements aimed at electing ten California Republican congressional candidates, Democratic sources told ''Hotline''.<ref name=comm>[http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/chamber-drops-3.php ''National Journal,'' "Chamber Drops $3.3 Million for California Repubs," September 27, 2012]</ref>
 +
 +
In [[California's 47th congressional district]], The Chamber spent $317,000 to elect [[Gary DeLong]].<ref name=comm/>
  
 
==District history==
 
==District history==
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==External links==
 
==External links==
 
*[http://www.garydelong.com/ Gary DeLong campaign website]
 
*[http://www.garydelong.com/ Gary DeLong campaign website]
*[http://www.votetroyedgar.com/ Troy Edgar campaign website]
 
 
*[http://www.stevekuykendall.com/ Steve Kuykendall campaign website]
 
*[http://www.stevekuykendall.com/ Steve Kuykendall campaign website]
  
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{{2012 congress election}}
 
{{2012 congress election}}
 
{{California congress}}
 
{{California congress}}
__NOTOC__
 
 
[[Category:U.S. House elections, California, 2012]]
 
[[Category:U.S. House elections, California, 2012]]

Revision as of 05:49, 19 April 2013

2014



CongressLogo.png

California's 47th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
June 5, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Alan Lowenthal Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Loretta Sanchez Democratic Party
Loretta Sanchez.jpg

California U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13District 14District 15District 16District 17District 18District 19District 20District 21District 22District 23District 24District 25District 26District 27District 28District 29District 30District 31District 32District 33District 34District 35District 36District 37District 38District 39District 40District 41District 42District 43District 44District 45District 46District 47District 48District 49District 50District 51District 52District 53

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of California.png
The 47th congressional district of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

State senator Alan Lowenthal (D) won the election.[1]

This is the 47th congressional district prior to the 2010 redistricting.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 9, 2012
June 5, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: California has a top-two primary system, in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, go on to the general election.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 21. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 22.[2]

See also: California elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Loretta Sanchez (D), who was first elected in 1996.

According to a Cook Political Report analysis, the 47th district was one of 13 congressional districts in California that was at least somewhat competitive in 2012. The analysis rated it as Likely Democratic.[3]

This was the first election which used new district maps based on 2010 Census data. California's 47th congressional district is located in the southern portion of the state and includes part of Orange County.[4]

Blanket primary

This was the first election year in which California's Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act was in effect. Because of this, all candidates for a seat competed in one blanket primary. The two candidates who received the most votes then advanced to the general election on November 6.

The proposition's intent was to encourage primary competition, which backers of the act said would lead to more moderate legislators being elected. Despite this intention, only a few centrists successfully advanced to the general election. The primary results did reflect an increase in competition, with California's percentage of contested primaries being much higher than the nationwide average.[5]

However, the increase in competition also led to an increase in campaign spending, due to the fact that competition within political parties lasted for the entire year rather than ending after the primary. Experts predict that this will only increase the power of the special interest groups that fund the campaigns.[5]

Raphael J. Sonenshein, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A., said the following, "It's hard to argue it's a better system where the incumbent congressman has a huge war chest and nobody else has any money... At least now we can make him spend it."[5]

As a result of the blanket primary, nine of California's 53 congressional districts had same-party candidates battling in the November 6 general election. Of those, seven were between Democrats.[6]

There were also over a dozen same-party races in the state legislature in November.[6]

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Alan Lowenthal Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Gary DeLong


June 5, 2012, primary results

Election Results

General election

U.S. House, California District 47 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAlan Lowenthal 56.6% 130,093
     Republican Gary DeLong 43.4% 99,919
Total Votes 230,012
Source: California Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Race background

California's 47th was considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Democrats had a 10% edge in registration, but Republicans thought it was possible to gain the seat with Gary DeLong, who is portrayed as a moderate Republican. [10]

California's 47th District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[11]

Republican challenger Gary DeLong was included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlighted challengers who represented the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[12]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in California

The 47th district was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[13][14]

Registration statistics

As of October 24, 2012, District 47 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the California Secretary of State:

California Congressional District 47[15]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 47 358,906 151,927 111,176 95,803 Democratic 36.65% -14.98%
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Partisanship figures from 2010 relating to the incumbent are unavailable for this district due to the seat being open.[16]

  • 2012: 56D / 44R
  • 2010: Unavailable

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. California's 47th congressional district has a PVI of D+5, which is the 150th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 60-40 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, John Kerry (D) won the district 52-48 percent over George W. Bush (R).[17]

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.

Alan Lowenthal

Alan Lowenthal (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[18]April 15, 2012$169,213.90$172,779.50$(58,777.30)$283,216.10
Pre-Primary [19]May 24, 2012$283,216.10$42,175$(88,503.66)$236,887.44
Running totals
$214,954.5$(147,280.96)

Gary DeLong

Gary DeLong (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[20]April 13, 2012$367,485.58$159,553.71$(122,747.12)$404,292.17
Pre-Primary [21]May 24, 2012$404,292.17$58,269$(143,931.68)$318,629.49
Running totals
$217,822.71$(266,678.8)

Chamber of commerce spending

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent a total of $3.3 million on television advertisements aimed at electing ten California Republican congressional candidates, Democratic sources told Hotline.[22]

In California's 47th congressional district, The Chamber spent $317,000 to elect Gary DeLong.[22]

District history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Loretta Sanchez won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Van Tran and Cecilia Iglesias in the general election.[23]

U.S. House, California District 47 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngLoretta Sanchez Incumbent 53% 50,832
     Republican Van Tran 39.3% 37,679
     Independent Cecilia Iglesias 7.8% 7,443
Total Votes 95,954

See also

External links

References

  1. CNN "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center"
  2. California Secretary of State "Elections FAQ," Accessed July 20, 2012
  3. The Cook Political Report 2012 Competitive House Race Chart
  4. California Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012
  5. 5.0 5.1 5.2 Los Angeles Times, "Few centrists advance in California's new primary system," June 7, 2012
  6. 6.0 6.1 Reuters, "Democrats face Democrats in new California election system," June 6, 2012
  7. "State Senator Announces Bid in New Long Beach District", rollcall.com, June 17, 2011
  8. "UPDATE: Councilmember Gary DeLong Announces Run for Congress, Endorsed By Governor Deukmejian and Supervisor Knabe", lbpost.com, August 17, 2011
  9. "EXCLUSIVE: Former Rep. Steven Kuykendall To Run For 47th Congressional District", lbpost.com, August 24, 2011
  10. New York Times "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 7, 2012
  11. DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
  12. NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
  13. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer "California's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  14. Labels & Lists "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  15. California Secretary of State, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," May 21, 2012
  16. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Arizona," September 2012
  17. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  18. Federal Election Commission "Alan Lowenthal April Quarterly," Accessed July 10, 2012
  19. Federal Election Commission "Alan Lowenthal Pre-Primary," Accessed July 10, 2012
  20. Federal Election Commission "Gary DeLong April Quarterly," Accessed July 10, 2012
  21. Federal Election Commission "Gary DeLong Pre-Primary," Accessed July 10, 2012
  22. 22.0 22.1 National Journal, "Chamber Drops $3.3 Million for California Repubs," September 27, 2012
  23. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"