Florida Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial election, 2014

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Florida Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
August 26, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Incumbents prior to election:
Rick Scott Republican Party
Carlos Lopez-Cantera Republican Party
Gov. Rick Scott
Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera
Florida State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor/Lt. GovernorAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner

Current trifecta for Republicans
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State executive offices in Florida
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The Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Governor Rick Scott (R) is eligible to run for re-election and began making plans for his campaign as early as May of 2012.[1] The office of lieutenant governor is currently vacant following the resignation of Scott's 2010 running-mate, Jennifer Carroll.

Florida is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[2][3][4]

Candidates

Under Article IV of the Florida Constitution, gubernatorial nominees are required to select running mates for the general election. Once designated, running mates are added below in order of "Governor/Lieutenant Governor."[5]

General election

Lost in the Democratic primary

Lost in the Republican primary



Race background

Republican incumbent Rick Scott is seeking a second term as governor in 2014.

Sources such as Governing, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, The Washington Post and Daily Kos have rated Scott among the most vulnerable governors facing re-election in 2014.[12][13][14][15][16]

In June 2013, ex-Florida Sen. Nan Rich became the first Democratic candidate in the race. She was later joined by former Florida Gov. and newly minted Democrat Charlie Crist. Crist's candidacy looms heavy over Scott's re-election campaign, according to match-up and approval polls dating back as far as May 2012.[17][18][19]

Long affiliated with the Republican Party, Crist's first party switch occurred in 2010, when, after losing the Republican primary for U.S. Senate to Marco Rubio, he changed his registration to Independent as an alternative route to reaching the general election ballot. In the fall of 2013, Crist became a Democrat; This latest party makeover was widely interpreted as a strategic maneuver to help him unseat Scott in the 2014 governor's race.[20]

As the Crist story unfolded and media coverage about Scott's struggles increased, a slew of other lesser-known hopefuls began filing for the office, mainly as write-ins or with no party affiliation. By October 2013, there were over twenty potentials actively petitioning for a place on the primary and general election ballots.[21] When the filing window finally closed on June 20, 2014, the number had dropped to—a still crowded—eighteen qualified gubernatorial candidates. The Republican field settled to three, including Scott, while the Democratic field remained a head-to-head battle between Crist and Rich. Unopposed Libertarian nominee Adrian Wyllie earned a direct pass to the general election, along with nine write-ins and three candidates with no stated party preference.[22]

Under Article IV of the Florida Constitution, gubernatorial nominees are required to select running mates after the primary, though they are permitted to do so in advanced. Customs for selecting running mates vary across Florida's main political parties. For example, Crist was chided for breaking with party tradition when he announced Annette Taddeo-Goldstein as his lieutenant governor pick prior to the primary. "Because he’s been a life-long Republican, Charlie Crist might be excused for not knowing that Democrats typically don’t choose a running mate until they win the nomination," jabbed Nan Rich, his Democratic primary challenger, in a July campaign press release.[23]

Scott appointed Carlos Lopez-Cantera to replace resigned Florida Lieutenant Governor Jennifer Carroll in January 2014, over nine months after she resigned from office amid a public relations scandal. Since Lopez-Cantera's appointment occurred during a gubernatorial election year, his qualifications as a campaigner factored significantly into his selection. Scott and Carroll shared the ticket in 2010, so the governor was left with the responsibility of picking not only a new lieutenant governor to serve out Carroll's term, but also a new running mate for the 2014 election.

Scott and Crist handily secured their respective parties' nominations in the August 26 primary election.[24]

The governor and lieutenant governor will be elected on a joint ticket in the general election on November 4, 2014.


Three-way matchup

Florida Governor three-way matchup
Poll Charlie Crist (D) Rick Scott* (R)Adrian Wyllie (L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University
July 17-21, 2014
39%37%9%12%+/-2.81,251
Cherry (R-Florida Chamber of Commerce)
August 10-13, 2014
35%41%11%+/-4.0627
Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/UF Bob Graham Center
August 27-31, 2014
31%41%9%+/-3.4814
Public Policy Polling
September 4-7, 2014
42%39%11%+/-3.4818
AVERAGES 36.75% 39.5% 10.75% +/-3.4 877.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Crist vs. Scott

Crist vs. Scott (June 2014 - present)
Poll Charlie Crist (D) Rick Scott* (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Cherry (R-Florida Chamber of Commerce)
June 11, 2014
38%41%21%+/-3.5806
SurveyUSA/WFLA-TV
June 20-23, 2014
41%42%8%+/-3.5541
Gravis Marketing
June 20-23, 2014
39%41%15%+/-3.01,232
Survey USA/WFLA-TV
June 30-7/2
43%45%5%+/-3.4558
Survey USA/WFLA-TV
July 17-21, 2014
46%40%6%+/-3.5564
Quinnipiac University
July 17-21, 2014
45%40%9%+/-2.81,251
Rasmussen Reports Poll
July 29-30
41%42%9%+/-3.0900
SurveyUSA/WFLA TV
July 31-August 4, 2014
43%45%4%+/-3.4859
Rasmussen Reports Poll
September 8-10, 2014
42%40%9%+/-3.01,000
AVERAGES 42% 41.78% 9.56% +/-3.23 856.78
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign media

Rick Scott

English-language campaign ads


Navy - Posted to YouTube 4/16/14

Ran Away - Posted to YouTube 4/24/14

Grandpa - Posted to YouTube 5/16/14

Spanish-language campaign ads


Oportunidad, Scott's 1st Spanish-language campaign ad - Posted to YouTube 4/21/14

Nos Abandonó, Spanish-language version of Ran Away- Posted to YouTube 5/6/14

Charlie Crist


Sunshine, Crist's first 1st TV ad-spot of campaign - Posted to YouTube 7/6/14

Outside groups

Florida Democratic Party


Answers - Ad reprising 2010 campaign attacks against Rick Scott over his alleged Medicaid fraud - Posted to YouTube 6/18/14

Recortes - Spanish language ad about education - Posted to YouTube 7/10/14

Florida Republican Party


The Better Governor - Republican Party juxtaposes Gov. Scott's record against that of ex-Gov. Crist, gives Scott edge - Posted to YouTube 7/11/14

See also

External links

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Suggest a link

References

  1. News-Press.com, "Florida parties already prepping for 2014 gubernatorial race," May 20, 2012
  2. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  3. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  4. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  5. 5.0 5.1 Florida Division of Elections, "Candidate Listing for 2014 General Election," September 12, 2014
  6. Bay News, "A year away, Gov. Scott, Dems prep for next governor's race," July 16, 2012
  7. Independent Political Report, "Adrian Wyllie Announces Run for Florida Governor as LP candidate: One of the First to Do So," February 7, 2013, accessed June 26, 2013
  8. Adrian Wyllie for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Meet Greg Roe," accessed August 18, 2014
  9. Farid Khavari for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed November 4, 2013
  10. Miami Herald, "State Sen. Nan Rich will run for governor in 2014," April 16, 2012
  11. Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder on Facebook, "Timeline," accessed October 2, 2013
  12. University of Virginia Center for Politics: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," April 29, 2013
  13. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top gubernatorial races," September 27, 2013
  14. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings: Initial ratings for 2013-14," October 6, 2013
  15. Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  16. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  17. The Sun Sentinel, "Charlie Christ Announces Candidacy For Florida's Governor, As A Democrat," November 4, 2013
  18. Politico, "Ex-GOP Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist to run for job as Democrat," November 1, 2013
  19. The Daily Caller, "Charlie Crist briefly visits with Democratic Governors Association," January 9, 2013
  20. The Hill, "Charlie Crist joins Democratic party ahead of gubernatorial election," December 8, 2012
  21. Florida Division of Elections, "Candidate Listing for 2014 General Election - Governor," accessed October 7, 2013
  22. Florida Division of Elections, "Candidate Listing for 2014 General Election - Governor," accessed July 22, 2014
  23. Nan Rich for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Press release: Statement from Senator Nan Rich regarding Charlie Crist’s selection of a potential running mate," July 17, 2014
  24. My Florida - Election Watch, "2014 Primary, Unofficial Election Night Results," accessed August 26, 2014