Illinois Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial election, 2014

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Illinois Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
March 18, 2014

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

November 4 Election Winners:
Pending
Incumbents prior to election:
Gov. Pat Quinn Democratic Party
Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon Democratic Party
Gov. Pat Quinn
Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon
Illinois State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor Lieutenant GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Controller

Flag of Illinois.png
The Illinois gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Governor Pat Quinn (D) is running for re-election. Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon, however, opted to run for state comptroller in 2014 rather than seek re-election with Quinn.

Quinn is widely recognized as one of the most, if not the most, vulnerable governors facing re-election in the 2014 electoral cycle.[1]

Quinn chose ex-Chicago public schools chief Paul Vallas to replace Simon as his running mate for lieutenant governor. The pair faced one set of token primary challengers and easily scored the Democratic nomination in the March 18 election. Although heavily contested, the Republican primary race also concluded without upset, as decisive frontrunner and wealthy venture capitalist Bruce Rauner defeated three tickets -- led by state Sens. Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady and state treasurer Dan Rutherford -- to win the party's nod. Rauner's primary election victory alongside running mate Evelyn Sanguinetti cost almost $14 million, including $6 million from his own pocket, the most any gubernatorial candidate has contributed to his own primary campaign in Illinois history.

The primary also made history by being the first time governor and lieutenant governor shared the ticket in the primary election phase.[2]

Illinois is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Voters do not have to register with a party, but they do have to choose, publicly, which party's ballot they will vote on at the primary election.[3] The breakdown of results from the March 18 gubernatorial contests showed a conspicuously low number of Democratic votes cast. Comparing the totals to past elections, 2014 had the lowest Democratic turnout since the 1940's, and the last time more votes were cast on the Republican than Democratic primary ballot was 1986. Meanwhile, the Republican vote total was not higher than average.

A key theme of the primary campaign season was how to handle government employee unions vis-a-vis Illinois' pension -- and general financial -- crisis. Most of the Democrats who participated in the GOP primary are said to have likely wanted to help defeat union-sympathetic state Sen. Kirk Dillard, and/or bolster anti-union crusader Bruce Rauner.[4] With Quinn's path to the general election clear, hundreds of thousands of Democrats believed their votes would be better spent on the Republican ballot. See also: Primary review, cross-party vote phenomenon

In addition to Rauner, Quinn will defend his seat against third party candidates Michael Oberline (Constitution Party), Chad Grimm (Libertarian) and Scott Summers (Green Party) in the November 4 general election.

As of September 2014, Illinois is one of 13 Democratic state government trifectas.

Results

Primary

Governor and Lt. Governor of Illinois, Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPat Quinn & Paul Vallas Incumbent 71.9% 316,746
Tio Hardiman & Brunell Donald 28.1% 123,918
Total Votes 440,664
Election Results Via:The Associated Press. Vote totals above are unofficial and reflect 100% precincts reporting.


Governor and Lt. Governor of Illinois, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Bill Brady & Maria Rodriguez 15.1% 123,109
Kirk Dillard & Jil Tracy 37.3% 304,094
Green check mark transparent.pngBruce Rauner & Evelyn Sanguinetti 40.1% 327,289
Dan Rutherford & Steve Kim 7.5% 61,609
Total Votes 816,101
Election Results Via:The Associated Press. Vote totals above are unofficial and reflect 100% precincts reporting.

Candidates

Running mates listed together in order of "Governor/Lieutenant Governor"

General election

Lost in the primary

Failed to qualify


Race background

Current incumbent Pat Quinn, a Democrat who went from lieutenant governor to governor following Rod Blagojevich's 2009 impeachment, is facing re-election in 2014. Quinn ran for, and won, a full term in 2010 and is running for his second full four-year term. According to multiple outside ratings, Quinn is among the most vulnerable governors in the 2014 electoral cycle.[20]

Quinn's 2010 running-mate and first term incumbent Lt. Gov Sheila Simon (D) announced in February 2013 that she would not run for re-election in 2014. Simon said she wanted to seek a new office that would allow her to have a "greater impact," and later declared her candidacy for state comptroller.[21][22] Simon's thinly veiled swipe at the office's unsatisfactory "impact" potential was followed shortly thereafter by the Illinois House of Representatives' approval of a proposal seeking to eliminate the position of lieutenant governor altogether by constitutional amendment. In order for the measure to be passed, it must win approval of both the State Senate and Illinois voters. If the proposal is approved in a statewide public vote, the office will remain intact for one final term following the 2014 election.[23] Quinn said he wanted “a people person” to replace Simon, and ultimately settled on former Chicago public schools chief Paul Vallas.[24]

The 2014 electoral cycle marked the first time in Illinois history that candidates for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor ran on a single ticket in the primary election phase. Spurred by the 2010 election fiasco when Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor Scott Lee Cohen had to drop out of the race after being arrested on charges of steroid use and domestic battery, the new joint ticket rule was enacted to support the notion of a critical governor-lieutenant governor partnership. In theory, allowing governor hopefuls to handpick their running mates for the primary would induce the campaigns to "better define their priorities for voters and cover more ground as election season gets underway."[24]

As of September 2014, Illinois is one of 13 Democratic state government trifectas. In such a blue state, it was expected that Quinn's biggest threat in 2014 would come from a fellow Democrat; namely, from Democrats William "Bill" Daley, a past U.S. Commerce Secretary and White House chief of staff and attorney general Lisa Madigan, both of whom were considered strong potential primary challengers. Quinn dodged both bullets, however, by September 2013. First Madigan dropped her long anticipated bid in June in order to seek another term as attorney general[25][26][27] After brief consideration,[28] Then in September, after a promising first stretch of campaigning, Daley abruptly ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination.[27] Called "a member of Chicago's first political family," for his relation to two of Chicago's longest-reigning mayors, Daley's departure in particular was a coup for Quinn, whose apparently bleak re-election prospects improved markedly in his absence.[29]

Quinn is the fifth out of a total of 46 previous Illinois lieutenant governors to have succeeded to the governorship mid-term. As governor, Quinn has emphasized improving the state government's ethical standards and protecting public-sector labor unions. His tenure thus far has been marred by steep, deeply unpopular budget cuts and tax increases stemming from long-term state debt among other issues that have factored into his status among the least popular governors facing re-election in 2014.[30]

Primary review, cross-party vote phenomenon

On September 3, individuals aiming to qualify for a slot on the March 2014 primary ballot began gathering signatures. The filing period for major party primary candidates ended on December 2, 2013, with only one Democrat, Tio Hardiman, filing to go up against Quinn. On the Republican end, candidates included state Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard, state treasurer Dan Rutherford and venture capitalist Bruce Rauner. Early polls showed Rutherford as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but Rauner rocketed ahead of the pack by November 2013 and maintained a 15-point average lead up to the March primary, which he won.[31]

A newcomer to politics, Rauner achieved the name recognition he needed to overcome his more established opponents with the help of massive campaign contributions totaling nearly $14 million, including $6 million of his own money—the highest amount a candidate has ever spent on his own primary campaign for governor in Illinois.[32][33]

Unofficial results from the March 18 primaries revealed some steep deviations from typical voting behaviors recorded in past elections. Based on the breakdown of votes in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries provided by the Chicago Tribune on election night, Ballot Access News analyzed what appeared to be a spectacularly low turnout of Democratic voters (438,112 votes) in the party's nominally contested primary. They detected that hundreds of thousands of Democratic voters must have taken advantage of the state's mixed-hybrid primary system to vote the Republican ballot instead of their own. Under Illinois' primary rules, voters can change parties each year but must declare a party affiliation at the polls. Depending on which party is chosen, the voter will then be counted as registered for that party. Voters may change party affiliation at polls or caucus.[34]

The mass cross-over by Democrats was linked to one specific issue highlighted in this year's GOP governor's race: government employee unions. Most of the Democrats who participated in the Republican primary did so in order to ensure Kirk Dillard, who has sided with the unions in the state senate, would lose to Bruce Rauner, who has promised to curtail union influence.[4]

In Illinois, the last time more votes were cast in the Republican than the Democratic gubernatorial primary was 1986; not since the 1940s have so few votes been cast in a Democratic gubernatorial primary election. Compared to the last five Illinois gubernatorial elections, there was no significant spike in Republican votes this year, indicating the trend reversal was caused by a tremendous drop in Democratic gubernatorial primary votes cast.[4]


Key deadlines

Deadline Event
December 2, 2013 Last day of petition filing for established political parties
January 16, 2014 Last day to file a Declaration of Intent to be a write-in candidate
March 18, 2014 Primary election
November 4, 2014 General election
November 25 Last day for canvassing election results by proper canvassing board
January 12, 2015 Inauguration day for state executive officials in general election

Polls

Hypothetical match-up polls

Governor of Illinois: Quinn vs. Rauner vs. Quinn
Poll Pat Quinn* (D) Bruce Rauner (R)Chad Grimm (L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
We Ask America/Reboot Illinois
September 2, 2014
37%46%7%10%+/-3.01,064
Global Strategy Group (D-DGA)
September 4-7, 2014
43%40%5%12%+/-4.0605
The Chicago Tribune/APC Research, Inc.
September 3-12, 2014
48%37%5%8%+/-3.5800
AVERAGES 42.67% 41% 5.67% 10% +/-3.5 823
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Illinois: Pat Quinn vs. Bruce Rauner
Poll Pat Quinn* (D) Bruce Rauner (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports
April 9-10, 2014
40%43%10%+/-4.0750
We Ask America/Reboot Illinois
June 10-11, 2014
37%47%16%+/-3.01,075
We Ask America/Capitol Fax
July 8, 2014
39%51%10%+/-3.2940
Rasmussen Reports
July 29-30, 2014
39%44%10%+/-4.0750
Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R)
August 4-5, 2014
40%48%12%+/-4.0567
We Ask America/Chicago Sun Times
August 6, 2014
38%51%11%+/-3.121,085
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)
August 12-14, 2014
43%46%11%+/-3.5802
CBS/NYT/YouGov
August 18-September 2, 2014
40%44%13%+/-3.04,363
AVERAGES 39.5% 46.75% 11.63% +/-3.48 1,291.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Illinois Governor - Early Republican Primary 2014
Poll Dan Rutherford Bill BradyBruce RaunerKirk DillardDan ProftMargin of ErrorSample Size
Battleground Polling
(May 27, 2013)
27%19%5%14%13%+/-4.8400
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

November 2012

Between November 26-28, 2012, Public Policy Polling surveyed 500 registered Illinois voters through live telephone interviews. The respondents were given a series of hypothetical match-ups between Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn and three potential Republican candidates, and asked which of the two candidates they would vote for in the 2014 election. The margin of error is +/- 4.4%. [35]

Hypothetical match-ups for Governor of Illinois
Kirk DillardDan RutherfordAaron Schock
Percent of the vote44%43%39%
Pat Quinn's percent of the vote37%39%40%
Undecided19%18%21%

Campaign sites & media

Democratic PartyPat Quinn & Paul Vallas

Democratic PartyTio Hardiman & Brunell Donald

Facebook
Twitter

Republican Party Kirk Dillard & Jil Tracy

Facebook
Twitter
YouTube

Republican PartyBill Brady & Maria Rodriguez

Republican PartyBruce Rauner & Evelyn Sanguinetti


"Nuts" - posted 4/4/14

"Beautiful Thing" - posted 4/28/14

"Principle" - posted 4/28/14

"Wrong Direction" - posted 4/28/14

"Upside Down" - posted 6/11/13

"Back To Work" - posted 6/11/13

"Snow Globe" - posted 12/2013

Republican PartyDan Rutherford & Steve Kim

Additional reading

Illinois News Network stories:

Recent news

This section displays the most recent stories in a Google news search for the term "Illinois + Governor + Election + 2014"

All stories may not be relevant to this page due to the nature of the search engine.

Illinois gubernatorial election News Feed

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See also

External links

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References

  1. Governing Politics, "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?," December 11, 2012
  2. St. Louis Today, "Illinois Gov. Quinn 2nd least popular incumbent going into 2014," April 9, 2013
  3. Board of Election Commissioners for the City of Chicago, "2014 Primary: Frequently Asked Questions," accessed January 2, 2014
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 Ballot Access News, "Shockingly Low Turnout in Illinois Democratic Primary Suggests Many Democrats Voted in Republican Primary," March 20, 2014
  5. ChicagoBusiness.com, "Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn taps Paul Vallas for running mate," November 8, 2013
  6. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  7. Independent Political Report, "Libertarian Party of Illinois holds annual state convention," September 23, 2013
  8. Independent Political Report, "Libertarian Party of Illinois holds annual state convention," September 23, 2013
  9. 9.0 9.1 Tio Hardiman for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  10. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  11. Brady/Rodriguez for Governor/Lt. Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  12. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  13. Dillard/Tracy for Governor/Lt. Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  14. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  15. The Southern, "Rutherford announces gov. campaign in Southern Illinois," June 2, 2013
  16. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  17. Illinois Green Party, "Meet Scott Summers, candidate for governor," accessed March 18, 2014
  18. Independent Political Report, "Constitution Party of Illinois nominates statewide candidates," March 24, 2014
  19. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate Detail - General Election 11/04/2014," accessed August 21, 2014
  20. Governing Politics, "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?," December 11, 2012
  21. Chicago Tribune, "Simon will not run again for lieutenant governor," February 13, 2013
  22. Chicago Magazine, "What Happens After Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon Quits Pat Quinn’s Team," March 26, 2013
  23. The Chicago Tribune, "House votes to eliminate lieutenant governor post," April 12, 2013
  24. 24.0 24.1 CBS Local - Chicago, "2014 Governor Candidates To Choose Running Mates," August 24, 2013
  25. Capitol Fax, "This just in… Lisa Madigan announces re-election bid," July 15, 2013
  26. Governing, "William Daley Considering Bid for Illinois Governor," December 21, 2012
  27. 27.0 27.1 Chicagobusiness.com, "Daley files paperwork for governor run," June 10, 2013
  28. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named dropout
  29. New Jersey Herald, "Daley: Exit from race doesn't mean I couldn't win," September 17, 2013
  30. St. Louis Today, "Illinois Gov. Quinn 2nd least popular incumbent going into 2014," April 9, 2013
  31. CapitolFax.com, "Capitol Fax/We Ask America Poll - Poll shows Rauner movement," July 8, 2013
  32. Crain's Chicago Business, "How Bruce Rauner won the GOP primary," March 19, 2014
  33. Peoria Public Radio, "How the self-funding of Rauner's campaign is impacting the race for Governor," March 12, 2014
  34. Chicago Tribune, "Election Calendar, Primary Results," last updated March 18, 2014
  35. Public Policy Polling, "Quinn in deep trouble, Dems favor Madigan," November 29, 2012