Illinois Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial election, 2014

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Illinois Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
March 18, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Race rating: Lean Democrat

November 4 Election Winners:
Bruce Rauner Republican Party
Evelyn Sanguinetti Republican Party
Incumbents prior to election:
Gov. Pat Quinn Democratic Party
Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon Democratic Party
Gov. Pat Quinn
Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon
Illinois State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor Lieutenant GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Controller

Trifecta loss for Democrats
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State executive offices in Illinois
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The Illinois gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Pat Quinn (D) is running for re-election.

Illinois is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Voters do not have to register with a party, but they do have to choose, publicly, which party's ballot they will vote on at the primary election.[1]

Candidates

Note: The following list of candidates is not official and will continue to be updated until the 2014 candidate filing deadline. Candidates will be added as we come across them prior to the deadline. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

Running mates listed together in order of "Governor/Lieutenant Governor"

General election

Democratic Party Pat Quinn (Incumbent)/Paul Vallas[2]
Republican Party Bruce Rauner/Evelyn Sanguinetti[3] Green check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party Chad Grimm/Alex Cummings[4][5]

Lost in the primary

Democratic Party Tio Hardiman/Brunell Donald[6][6][7]
Republican Party Bill Brady/Maria Rodriguez[8][9]
Republican Party Kirk Dillard/Jil Tracy - State Senator[10][11]
Republican Party Dan Rutherford/Steve Kim - State Treasurer[12][13]

Failed to qualify

Green Party Scott Summers/Bob Pritchett, Jr.[14]
Constitution Party Michael Oberline/Don Stone[15]
Independent Michael Hawkins/Kimberly Kusch[16]


Challenges for Gov. Quinn

Current incumbent Pat Quinn, a Democrat who went from lieutenant governor to governor following Rod Blagojevich's 2009 impeachment, won a full term in 2010 and lost his bid for re-election in 2014 to Republican Bruce Rauner. According to multiple outside ratings, Quinn was among the most vulnerable governors in the 2014 electoral cycle.[17]

Incumbent Lt. Gov Sheila Simon (D) announced in February 2013 that she would not run for re-election in 2014 alongside Quinn, her 2010 running mate. Simon said she wanted to seek a new office that would allow her to have a "greater impact," and later declared her candidacy for state comptroller.[18][19] Simon's thinly veiled swipe at the office's impact was followed shortly thereafter by the Illinois House of Representatives' approval of a proposal seeking to eliminate the position of lieutenant governor altogether by constitutional amendment, effective after the 2018 election. In order for the measure to be passed, it would need the approval of both the State Senate and Illinois voters.[20] Quinn said he wanted “a people person” to replace Simon, and ultimately settled on former Chicago public schools chief Paul Vallas.[21]

The 2014 electoral cycle marked the first time in Illinois history that candidates for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor ran on a single ticket in the primary election phase. Spurred by the 2010 election fiasco when Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor Scott Lee Cohen had to drop out of the race after being arrested on charges of steroid use and domestic battery, the new joint ticket rule intended to increase the importance of the lieutenant governor based on its partnership with the governor. In theory, allowing gubernatorial candidates to handpick their running mates for the primary would cause campaigns to "better define their priorities for voters and cover more ground as election season gets underway."[21]

As of November 2014, Illinois is one of 14 Democratic state government trifectas. In such a blue state, it was expected that Quinn's biggest threat in 2014 would come from a fellow Democrat. The potential primary challenges for Quinn included William "Bill" Daley, a past U.S. Commerce Secretary and White House chief of staff, and attorney general Lisa Madigan. Quinn dodged both bullets as both potential challengers removed themselves from contention by September 2013. Madigan dropped her long anticipated bid in June 2013 in order to seek another term as attorney general.[22][23][24] In September 2013, after a promising first stretch of campaigning, Daley abruptly ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination.[25][24] Called "a member of Chicago's first political family," for his relation to two of Chicago's longest-reigning mayors, Daley's departure in particular was a coup for Quinn, whose apparently bleak re-election prospects improved markedly in his absence.[26]

Quinn was the fifth out of a total of 46 previous Illinois lieutenant governors to have succeeded to the governorship mid-term. As governor, Quinn emphasized improving the state government's ethical standards and protecting public-sector labor unions. His tenure was marred by steep, deeply unpopular budget cuts and tax increases stemming from long-term state debt among other issues that contributed to his status among the least popular governors facing re-election in 2014.[27]

Endorsements

Bruce Rauner earned the endorsement of the Chicago Tribune prior to the general election.[28] The Chicago Tribune traditionally endorses Republican candidates for statewide and national office, with the notable exception of the paper's endorsement for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 presidential election.[29]

Third-party candidates

Quinn and Rauner ran against Libertarian candidate Chad Grimm. There were three other third party tickets in race, led by Michael Oberline (Constitution) Scott Summers (Green) and Michael Hawkins (Independent), until an August 22 petition challenge ruling by the Illinois State Board of Elections disqualified their respective parties from appearing on the November 4 ballot. It was the first time in a decade that the Libertarian Party, which survived the signature challenge, was the only minor party to compete for Illinois statewide office in the general election.[30]

Primary review, cross-party vote phenomenon

On September 3, 2013, individuals aiming to qualify for a slot on the March 2014 primary ballot began gathering signatures. The filing period for major party primary candidates ended on December 2, 2013, with only one Democrat, Tio Hardiman, filing to go up against Quinn. On the Republican end, candidates included state Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard, state treasurer Dan Rutherford and venture capitalist Bruce Rauner. Early polls showed Rutherford as the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but Rauner rocketed ahead of the pack by November 2013 and maintained a 15-point average lead up to the March primary, which he won.[31]

A newcomer to politics, Rauner achieved the name recognition he needed to overcome his more established opponents with the help of massive campaign spending totaling nearly $14 million, including $6 million of his own money—the highest amount a candidate has ever spent on his own primary campaign for governor in Illinois.[32][33]

Unofficial results from the March 18 primaries revealed some steep deviations from typical voting behaviors recorded in past elections. Based on the breakdown of votes in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries provided by the Chicago Tribune on election night, Ballot Access News analyzed what appeared to be a spectacularly low turnout of Democratic voters (438,112 votes) in the party's nominally contested primary. They detected that hundreds of thousands of Democratic voters must have taken advantage of the state's mixed-hybrid primary system to vote the Republican ballot instead of their own. Under Illinois' primary rules, voters can change parties each year but must declare a party affiliation at the polls. Depending on which party is chosen, the voter will then be counted as registered for that party. Voters may change party affiliation at polls or caucus.[34]

The mass cross-over by Democrats was linked to one specific issue highlighted in this year's GOP governor's race: government employee unions. Most of the Democrats who participated in the Republican primary did so in order to ensure Kirk Dillard, who sided with the unions in the state senate, would lose to Bruce Rauner, who promised to curtail union influence.[35]

In Illinois, the last time more votes were cast in the Republican than the Democratic gubernatorial primary was 1986; not since the 1940s had so few votes been cast in a Democratic gubernatorial primary election. Compared to the last five Illinois gubernatorial elections, there was no significant spike in Republican votes in 2014, indicating the trend reversal was caused by a tremendous drop in Democratic gubernatorial primary votes cast.[35]

Polls

Hypothetical match-up polls

General election
All candidates

Governor of Illinois: All candidates
Poll Pat Quinn* (D) Bruce Rauner (R)Chad Grimm (L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
We Ask America/Reboot Illinois
September 2, 2014
37%46%7%10%+/-31,064
Global Strategy Group (D-DGA)
September 4-7, 2014
43%40%5%12%+/-4605
The Chicago Tribune/APC Research, Inc.
September 3-12, 2014
48%37%5%8%+/-3.5800
We Ask America/Reboot Illinois
October 6, 2014
43.6%39.6%5.9%10.9%+/-31,097
Early & Often/We Ask America
October 8, 2014
44.48%41.03%6.95%7.53%+/-31,051
Southern Illinois University
September 23-October 15, 2014
40.7%42.4%3%13.9%+/-3.7691
We Ask America
October 27-28, 2014
49.5%44.8%5.6%0%+/-32,327
AVERAGES 43.75% 41.55% 5.49% 8.9% +/-3.31 1,090.71
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Incumbency is denoted by asterisk (*)

Quinn vs. Rauner

Governor of Illinois: Pat Quinn vs. Bruce Rauner
Poll Pat Quinn* (D) Bruce Rauner (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports
April 9-10, 2014
40%43%10%+/-4.0750
We Ask America/Reboot Illinois
June 10-11, 2014
37%47%16%+/-3.01,075
We Ask America/Capitol Fax
July 8, 2014
39%51%10%+/-3.2940
Rasmussen Reports
July 29-30, 2014
39%44%10%+/-4.0750
Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R)
August 4-5, 2014
40%48%12%+/-4.0567
We Ask America/Chicago Sun Times
August 6, 2014
38%51%11%+/-3.121,085
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)
August 12-14, 2014
43%46%11%+/-3.5802
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
August 18-September 2, 2014
40%44%13%+/-3.04,363
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
September 20-October 1, 2014
46%43%11%+/-23,955
Rasmussen Reports
October 20-22, 2014
47%48%6%+/-31,000
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014
45%41%14%+/-33,519
AVERAGES 41.27% 46% 11.27% +/-3.26 1,709.64
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Incumbency is denoted by asterisk (*)

Republican Primary

Illinois Governor - 2014 Republican Primary
Poll Bill Brady Kirk DillardBruce RaunerDan RutherfordUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Capitol Fax/We AskAmericaPoll
June 20, 2013
18%11%12%22%38%+/-2.81,310
WeAskAmerica
November 26, 2013
18%10%26%17%29%+/-2.81,233
Chicago Tribune/WGN
February 2-8, 2014
20%11%40%13%15%+/-4600
WeAskAmerica
February 25, 2014
12.8%17.25%35.6%7.48%26.88%+/-31,178
Chicago Tribune/WGN
March 1-5, 2014
18%23%36%9%13%+/-4600
WeAskAmerica
March 4, 2014
11.65%14.45%39.88%8.20%25.82%+/-2.851,262
WeAskAmerica
March 11, 2014
18.9%25.76%46.46%8.88%0%+/-2.91,235
WeAskAmerica
March 16, 2014
19.35%27.36%44.24%9.04%0%+/-3.01,126
AVERAGES 17.09% 17.48% 35.02% 11.83% 18.46% +/-3.17 1,068
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Due to the nature of the comparison, a placeholder figure of 0% is assigned to candidates not included in any given match-up round


Illinois Governor - Republican Primary 2014
Poll Dan Rutherford Bill BradyBruce RaunerKirk DillardMargin of ErrorSample Size
Capitol Fax/We Ask America Poll
(June 20, 2013)
22%18%12%11%38%+/-2.81,310
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

November 2012

Between November 26-28, 2012 Public Policy Polling surveyed 500 registered Illinois voters through live telephone interviews. The respondents were given a series of hypothetical match-ups between Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn and three potential Republican candidates, and asked which of the two candidates they would vote for in the 2014 election. The margin of error is +/- 4.4%. [36]

Hypothetical match-ups for Governor of Illinois
Kirk DillardDan RutherfordAaron Schock
Percent of the vote44%43%39%
Pat Quinn's percent of the vote37%39%40%
Undecided19%18%21%

Campaign sites & media

Democratic PartyBill Daley


Daley announces his candidacy for governor in 2014 - released June 11, 2013

Republican PartyBill Brady

Republican PartyBruce Rauner


"Upside Down" - released June 11, 2013

"Back To Work" - released June 11, 2013

Republican PartyDan Rutherford

See also

External links

BP-Initials-UPDATED.png
Suggest a link

References

  1. Board of Election Commissioners for the City of Chicago, "2014 Primary: Frequently Asked Questions," accessed January 2, 2014
  2. ChicagoBusiness.com, "Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn taps Paul Vallas for running mate," November 8, 2013
  3. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  4. Independent Political Report, "Libertarian Party of Illinois holds annual state convention," September 23, 2013
  5. Independent Political Report, "Libertarian Party of Illinois holds annual state convention," September 23, 2013
  6. 6.0 6.1 Tio Hardiman for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  7. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  8. Brady/Rodriguez for Governor/Lt. Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  9. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  10. Dillard/Tracy for Governor/Lt. Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  11. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  12. The Southern, "Rutherford announces gov. campaign in Southern Illinois," June 2, 2013
  13. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  14. Illinois Green Party, "Meet Scott Summers, candidate for governor," accessed March 18, 2014
  15. Independent Political Report, "Constitution Party of Illinois nominates statewide candidates," March 24, 2014
  16. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate Detail - General Election 11/04/2014," accessed August 21, 2014
  17. Governing Politics, "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?," December 11, 2012
  18. Chicago Tribune, "Simon will not run again for lieutenant governor," February 13, 2013
  19. Chicago Magazine, "What Happens After Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon Quits Pat Quinn’s Team," March 26, 2013
  20. The Chicago Tribune, "House votes to eliminate lieutenant governor post," April 12, 2013
  21. 21.0 21.1 CBS Local - Chicago, "2014 Governor Candidates To Choose Running Mates," August 24, 2013
  22. Capitol Fax, "This just in… Lisa Madigan announces re-election bid," July 15, 2013
  23. Governing, "William Daley Considering Bid for Illinois Governor," December 21, 2012
  24. 24.0 24.1 Chicagobusiness.com, "Daley files paperwork for governor run," June 10, 2013
  25. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named dropout
  26. New Jersey Herald, "Daley: Exit from race doesn't mean I couldn't win," September 17, 2013
  27. St. Louis Today, "Illinois Gov. Quinn 2nd least popular incumbent going into 2014," April 9, 2013
  28. Chicago Tribune, "For governor: The Tribune endorses Bruce Rauner, to revive Illinois," October 10, 2014
  29. Chicago Sun-Times, "Chicago Tribune endorses Obama. First Democrat to get Trib presidential nod," October 17, 2008
  30. Ballot Access News, "Libertarian Party Statewide Slate Will Appear on Illinois Ballot," August 22, 2014
  31. CapitolFax.com, "Capitol Fax/We Ask America Poll - Poll shows Rauner movement," July 8, 2013
  32. Crain's Chicago Business, "How Bruce Rauner won the GOP primary," March 19, 2014
  33. Peoria Public Radio, "How the self-funding of Rauner's campaign is impacting the race for Governor," March 12, 2014
  34. Chicago Tribune, "Election Calendar, Primary Results," last updated March 18, 2014
  35. 35.0 35.1 Ballot Access News, "Shockingly Low Turnout in Illinois Democratic Primary Suggests Many Democrats Voted in Republican Primary," March 20, 2014
  36. Public Policy Polling, "Quinn in deep trouble, Dems favor Madigan," November 29, 2012