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Difference between revisions of "Illinois gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2014"

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{{Ilgovtoc14}}{{tnr}}The '''Illinois gubernatorial election''' will take place on [[State executive official elections, 2014|November 4, 2014]]. Incumbent [[Pat Quinn]] (D) is exploring a run for re-election.
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{{Ilgovtoc14}}{{tnr}}The '''Illinois gubernatorial election''' will take place on [[State executive official elections, 2014|November 4, 2014]]. Incumbent [[Pat Quinn]] (D) is running for re-election.
  
 +
{{ilprimaryvoting2014}}
 
==Candidates==
 
==Candidates==
The following list of candidates is not official and will continue to be updated until the 2014 candidate filing deadline.
+
{{Cong 2014 seo early}}
  
===Potential Republican candidates===
+
{{ilgovcand14}}
*State Sen. [[Ken Dillard]]<ref>[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/quinn-extremely-unpopular-madigan-would-start-out-favored.html ''Public Policy Polling,'' "Quinn extremely unpopular, Madigan would start out favored," November 29, 2012]</ref>
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*[[Illinois Treasurer|State Treasurer]] [[Dan Rutherford]]
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*[[United States House of Representatives|Congressman]] [[Aaron Schock]]
+
  
===Potential Democratic candidates===
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{{Ilgovbackground2014}}
*[[Pat Quinn]] ''Incumbent''
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==Polls==
*[[Attorney General of Illinois|Attorney General]] [[Lisa Madigan]]
+
===Hypothetical match-up polls===
 +
===June 2013===
 +
{{Poll
 +
|Title=Republican gubernatorial primary - hypothetical match-up
 +
|Poll1=[http://capitolfax.com/2013/07/08/poll-shows-rauner-movement/ Capitol Fax/We Ask America Poll]<br>(June 20, 2013)
 +
|Response1=Dan Rutherford
 +
|Response2=Bill Brady
 +
|Response3=Bruce Rauner
 +
|Response4=Kirk Dillard
 +
|Numberpolled1=1310
 +
|Margin of error1 = 2.8
 +
|Response1Poll1% = 22
 +
|Response2Poll1% = 18
 +
|Response3Poll1% = 12
 +
|Response4Poll1% = 11
 +
|Response5Poll1%=38
 +
}}
 +
===November 2012===
 +
Between November 26-28, 2012 Public Policy Polling surveyed 500 registered Illinois voters through live telephone interviews. The respondents were given a series of hypothetical match-ups between [[Democratic]] incumbent [[Pat Quinn]] and three potential [[Republican]] candidates, and asked which of the two candidates they would vote for in the 2014 election. The margin of error is +/- 4.4%.
 +
<ref>[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IL_112912.pdf ''Public Policy Polling,'' "Quinn in deep trouble, Dems favor Madigan," November 29, 2012]</ref>
 +
 
 +
<table border="1" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width=90%"><th style="color:white;background-color:#444;" colspan="10">'''Hypothetical match-ups for Governor of Illinois'''</th><tr><td></td><td style="background-color:blue; color:white">Kirk Dillard</td><td style="background-color:blue; color:white">Dan Rutherford</td><td style="background-color:blue; color:white">Aaron Schock</td></tr><!--
 +
--><tr><td>Percent of the vote</td><td style="text-align:center; background-color:#FFEF00">44%</td><td style="text-align:center">43%</td><td style="text-align:center">39%</td></tr><!--
 +
 
 +
--><tr><td height="1px" style="color:white;background-color:#444;" colspan="9"></td></tr><!--
 +
 
 +
--><tr><td style="background-color:red; color:white">Pat Quinn's percent of the vote</td><td style="text-align:center;">37%</td><td style="text-align:center">39%</td><td style="text-align:center; background-color:#FFEF00">40%</td></tr><!--
 +
 
 +
--><tr><td>Undecided</td><td style="text-align:center">19%</td><td style="text-align:center">18%</td><td style="text-align:center">21%</td></tr></table>
 +
 
 +
==Campaign sites & media==
 +
===={{bluedot}}[[Bill Daley]]====
 +
*[http://billdaleyillinois.com/ Bill Daley for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website]
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:*[http://www.facebook.com/BillDaley '''Facebook''']
 +
 
 +
{|
 +
|-----valign="right"
 +
|
 +
{{Youtube|title=xSODie3GHjE|size=200|caption=Daley announces his candidacy for governor in 2014 - released June 11, 2013}}
 +
|
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
===={{reddot}}[[Bill Brady]]====
 +
* [http://www.bradyforillinois.com Bill Brady for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website]
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:*[http://www.facebook.com/BillBradyIL '''Facebook''']
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:*[http://twitter.com/Bill_Brady '''Twitter''']
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:*[http://www.youtube.com/user/bradyforillinois '''YouTube''']
 +
 
 +
===={{reddot}}[[Bruce Rauner]]====
 +
*[http://brucerauner.com/home Bruce Rauner for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website]
 +
:*[http://www.facebook.com/BruceRauner '''Facebook''']
 +
:*[http://twitter.com/BruceRauner '''Twitter''']
 +
:*[http://www.youtube.com/user/brucerauner '''YouTube''']
 +
 
 +
{|
 +
|-----valign="right"
 +
|
 +
{{Youtube|title=lroNotqwdx0|size=200|caption="Upside Down" - released June 11, 2013}}
 +
|
 +
{{Youtube|title=XYdJDwchsf8|size=200|caption="Back To Work" - released June 11, 2013}}
 +
|
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
===={{reddot}}Dan Rutherford====
 +
*[http://www.danrutherford.org/ Dan Rutherford for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website]
 +
:*[https://www.facebook.com/RutherfordDan '''Facebook''']
 +
:*[http://twitter.com/RutherfordDan '''Twitter''']
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==

Revision as of 10:04, 7 August 2013


StateExecLogo.png

Illinois Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
March 18, 2014

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

November 4 Election Winners:
Pending
Incumbents prior to election:
Gov. Pat Quinn Democratic Party
Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon Democratic Party
Gov. Pat Quinn
Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon
Illinois State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor Lieutenant GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Controller

Flag of Illinois.png
The Illinois gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Pat Quinn (D) is running for re-election.

Illinois has a mixed-hybrid primary system. Voters can change parties each year but must declare a party affiliation at the polls. Depending on which party is chosen, the voter will then be counted as registered for that party. Voters may change party affiliation at polls or caucus.

Candidates

Note: The following list of candidates is not official and will continue to be updated until the 2014 candidate filing deadline. Candidates will be added as we come across them prior to the deadline. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

Paul Vallas (Lt. Gov) - Former Chief of Chicago Public Schools[1]
Evelyn Sanguinetti (Lt. Gov)[3]
Alex Cummings (Lt. Gov)[5]
Bob Pritchett, Jr. (Lt. Gov)
Don Stone (Lt. Gov)[7]

Lost in the primary

Brunell Donald (Lt. Gov)[8][9]
Maria Rodriguez[11]
Jil Tracy (Lt. Gov)[13]
Steve Kim (Lt. Gov)[15]


Race background

Current incumbent Pat Quinn, a Democrat who went from lieutenant governor to governor following Rod Blagojevich's 2009 impeachment, is facing re-election in 2014. Quinn ran for, and won, a full term in 2010 and is running for his second full four-year term. According to multiple outside ratings, Quinn is among the most vulnerable governors in the 2014 electoral cycle.[16]

Quinn's 2010 running-mate and first term incumbent Lt. Gov Sheila Simon (D) announced in February 2013 that she would not run for re-election in 2014. Simon said she wanted to seek a new office that would allow her to have a "greater impact," and later declared her candidacy for state comptroller.[17][18] Simon's thinly veiled swipe at the office's unsatisfactory "impact" potential was followed shortly thereafter by the Illinois House of Representatives' approval of a proposal seeking to eliminate the position of lieutenant governor altogether by constitutional amendment. In order for the measure to be passed, it must win approval of both the State Senate and Illinois voters. If the proposal is approved in a statewide public vote, the office will remain intact for one final term following the 2014 election.[19] Quinn said he wanted “a people person” to replace Simon, and ultimately settled on former Chicago public schools chief Paul Vallas.[20]

The 2014 electoral cycle marked the first time in Illinois history that candidates for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor ran on a single ticket in the primary election phase. Spurred by the 2010 election fiasco when Democratic nominee for lt. governor Scott Lee Cohen had to drop out of the race after being arrested on charges of steroid use and domestic battery, the new joint ticket rule was enacted to support the notion of a critical governor-lieutenant governor partnership. In theory, allowing governor hopefuls to hand pick their running mates for the primary would induce the campaigns to "better define their priorities for voters and cover more ground as election season gets underway."[20]

As of April 2014, Illinois is one of 13 Democratic state government trifectas. The biggest threat to Quinn winning re-election, then, was expected to have come courtesy of his fellow Democrats, namely William "Bill" Daley, a past U.S. Commerce Secretary and White House chief of staff and attorney general Lisa Madigan. But by September 2013, Quinn had dodged both bullets: First, Madigan, who had been expected to enter the primary race, announced that she would instead seek re-election to her current post.[21][22][23] After brief consideration,[24] Daley, "a member of Chicago's first political family," for his relation to two of Chicago's longest-reigning mayors, abruptly withdrew his bid for the Democratic nomination after a promising first stretch.[23] His departure marked a veritable coup for Quinn, whose bleak re-election prospects improved considerably in the absence of a strong primary challenge.[25]

Quinn is the fifth out of a total of forty-six previous Illinois lieutenant governors to have succeeded to the governorship mid-term. As governor, Quinn has emphasized improving the state government's ethical standards and protecting public-sector labor unions. His tenure thus far has been marred by steep, deeply unpopular budget cuts and tax increases stemming from long-term state debt among other issues that have factored into his status among the least popular governors facing re-election in 2014.[26]

Primary review, cross-party vote phenomenon

On September 3, individuals aiming to qualify for a slot on the March 2014 primary ballot began gathering signatures. The filing period for major party primary candidates ended on December 2, 2013, with only one Democrat, Tio Hardiman, filing to go up against Quinn. Candidates from the Republican end included state Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard, state treasurer Dan Rutherford and venture capitalist Bruce Rauner. Early polls showed Rutherford as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but Rauner rocketed ahead of the pack by November 2013 and maintained a 15-point average lead up to the March primary, which he won.[27]

A newcomer to politics, Rauner achieved the name recognition he needed to overcome his more established opponents with the help of massive campaign contributions totaling nearly $14 million, including $6 million of his own money, the highest amount a candidate has ever spent on his own primary campaign for governor in Illinois.[28][29]

Unofficial results from the March 18 primaries revealed some steep deviations from typical voting behaviors recorded in past elections. Based on the breakdown of votes in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries provided by the Chicago Tribune on election night, Ballot Access News analyzed what appeared to be a spectacularly low turnout of Democratic voters (438,112 votes) in the party's contested, albeit only nominally, primary. They detected that hundreds of thousands of Democratic voters must have taken advantage of the state's mixed-hybrid primary system to vote the Republican ballot instead of their own. Under Illinois' primary rules, voters can change parties each year but must declare a party affiliation at the polls. Depending on which party is chosen, the voter will then be counted as registered for that party. Voters may change party affiliation at polls or caucus.[30]

The mass cross-over by Democrats was linked to one specific issue highlighted in this year's GOP governor's race: government employee unions. Most of the Democrats who participated in the Republican primary did so in order to ensure Kirk Dillard, who has sided with the unions in the state senate, would lose to Bruce Rauner, who has promised to curtail union influence.[31]

In Illinois, the last time more votes were cast in the Republican than the Democratic gubernatorial primary was 1986; not since the 1940's have so few votes been cast in a Democratic gubernatorial primary election. Compared to the last five Illinois gubernatorial elections, there was no significant spike in Republican votes this year, indicating the trend reversal was caused by a tremendous drop in Democratic gubernatorial primary votes cast.[31]


Polls

Hypothetical match-up polls

June 2013

Republican gubernatorial primary - hypothetical match-up
Poll Dan Rutherford Bill BradyBruce RaunerKirk DillardMargin of ErrorSample Size
Capitol Fax/We Ask America Poll
(June 20, 2013)
22%18%12%11%38%+/-2.81,310
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

November 2012

Between November 26-28, 2012 Public Policy Polling surveyed 500 registered Illinois voters through live telephone interviews. The respondents were given a series of hypothetical match-ups between Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn and three potential Republican candidates, and asked which of the two candidates they would vote for in the 2014 election. The margin of error is +/- 4.4%. [32]

Hypothetical match-ups for Governor of Illinois
Kirk DillardDan RutherfordAaron Schock
Percent of the vote44%43%39%
Pat Quinn's percent of the vote37%39%40%
Undecided19%18%21%

Campaign sites & media

Democratic PartyBill Daley


Daley announces his candidacy for governor in 2014 - released June 11, 2013

Republican PartyBill Brady

Republican PartyBruce Rauner


"Upside Down" - released June 11, 2013

"Back To Work" - released June 11, 2013

Republican PartyDan Rutherford

See also

External links

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Suggest a link

References

  1. ChicagoBusiness.com, "Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn taps Paul Vallas for running mate," November 8, 2013
  2. The Chicago Tribune, "Bruce Rauner raises $1.3 million in a month for governor's race," April 2, 2013
  3. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  4. Independent Political Report, "Libertarian Party of Illinois holds annual state convention," September 23, 2013
  5. Independent Political Report, "Libertarian Party of Illinois holds annual state convention," September 23, 2013
  6. Illinois Green Party, "Meet Scott Summers, candidate for governor," accessed March 18, 2014
  7. Independent Political Report, "Constitution Party of Illinois nominates statewide candidates," March 24, 2014
  8. 8.0 8.1 Tio Hardiman for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  9. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  10. Brady/Rodriguez for Governor/Lt. Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  11. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  12. Dillard/Tracy for Governor/Lt. Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 3, 2013
  13. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  14. The Southern, "Rutherford announces gov. campaign in Southern Illinois," June 2, 2013
  15. Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate list," December 3, 2013
  16. Governing Politics, "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?," December 11, 2012
  17. Chicago Tribune, "Simon will not run again for lieutenant governor," February 13, 2013
  18. Chicago Magazine, "What Happens After Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon Quits Pat Quinn’s Team," March 26, 2013
  19. The Chicago Tribune, "House votes to eliminate lieutenant governor post," April 12, 2013
  20. 20.0 20.1 CBS Local - Chicago, "2014 Governor Candidates To Choose Running Mates," August 24, 2013
  21. Capitol Fax, "This just in… Lisa Madigan announces re-election bid," July 15, 2013
  22. Governing, "William Daley Considering Bid for Illinois Governor," December 21, 2012
  23. 23.0 23.1 Chicagobusiness.com, "Daley files paperwork for governor run," June 10, 2013
  24. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named dropout
  25. New Jersey Herald, "Daley: Exit from race doesn't mean I couldn't win," September 17, 2013
  26. St. Louis Today, "Illinois Gov. Quinn 2nd least popular incumbent going into 2014," April 9, 2013
  27. CapitolFax.com, "Capitol Fax/We Ask America Poll - Poll shows Rauner movement," July 8, 2013
  28. Crain's Chicago Business, "How Bruce Rauner won the GOP primary," March 19, 2014
  29. Peoria Public Radio, "How the self-funding of Rauner's campaign is impacting the race for Governor," March 12, 2014
  30. Chicago Tribune, "Election Calendar, Primary Results," last updated March 18, 2014
  31. 31.0 31.1 Ballot Access News, "Shockingly Low Turnout in Illinois Democratic Primary Suggests Many Democrats Voted in Republican Primary," March 20, 2014
  32. Public Policy Polling, "Quinn in deep trouble, Dems favor Madigan," November 29, 2012