Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2012

Term Limits
Impact of Term Limits by Year
2010 • 2011 • 2012
State senates
Arizona • Arkansas • California Colorado • Florida • Maine Missouri • Montana Nebraska • Nevada • Ohio Oklahoma • South Dakota
State houses
Arizona • Arkansas • California Colorado • Florida • Maine Michigan • Missouri • Montana Nevada • Ohio Oklahoma • South Dakota
State legislatures with term limits
Term limits on the ballot

Thirteen state senate chambers and thirteen state house chambers holding general elections on November 6, 2012 include some state legislators who are unable to run for re-election in 2012 because of their state's legislative term limits.

• 78 state senators will be termed-out in 2012. This represents 23.8% of the 328 total state senate seats up for election in November in the 13 term-limited state senates with elections in November 2012.
• 169 state representatives will be termed-out. This represents 13.4% of the 1,263 total seats up for election in the 13 term-limited states with elections in November 2012.

Altogether, 247 current state legislators will have to leave office after the November elections because of term limits. This is 15.5% of the 1,591 state legislative seats up for election in the 14 term-limited states with 2012 elections, and about 4% of the 5,979 state legislative seats that will be up for election altogether in 2012, including the non-term-limited states.

See also: State legislative elections, 2012

State senates

Main article: Impact of term limits on state senate elections in 2012

43 state senates will hold general elections in November 2012. In 13 of these states, state senators are subject to term limits. Louisiana and Michigan are the only states with state senate term limits that will not have a general election for their state senates in 2012.

A total of 78 current state senators are ineligible to run for re-election in November because of term limit laws in their state. This includes:

• 33 incumbent Democratic state senators
• 38 incumbent Republican state senators
• 7 non-partisan state senators.

In 5 states, the term limits axe falls more heavily on incumbent Republicans: Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Ohio and South Dakota. In 4 states, the term limits axe falls more heavily on incumbent Democrats: Arkansas, California, Colorado, and Montana. In 3 states, the axe falls equally on both parties (Maine, Oklahoma, and Nevada) while Nebraska's senate is officially non-partisan.

State houses

Main article: Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2012

43 state houses will hold general elections in November 2012. In 13 of these states, state house terms are subject to term limits. 15 states have state legislative term limits, but Louisiana will not hold a state house election in 2012 and Nebraska does not have a state house.

169 current state representatives are ineligible to run for re-election in November because of term limit laws in their state. This includes:

• 85 incumbent Democratic state representatives
• 84 incumbent Republican state representatives

In 7 states, the term limits axe falls more heavily on incumbent Republicans: Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oklahoma and South Dakota. In all of these states, the current majority party is also the Republican Party.

In 6 states, the term limits axe falls more heavily on incumbent Democrats: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, and Nevada. In 3 of these states, the current majority party is also the Democratic Party. These states include Arkansas, California and Nevada. In 3 of the 6 states where term limits affect incumbent Democrats more heavily, the current majority party is Republican -- Colorado, Maine and Michigan.

Impact on parties

Although the difference is marginal, the Republican Party is taking more of a hit from term limits in the 2012 state legislative elections than the Democratic Party, both in terms of how many individual incumbent legislators the Republican Party will lose (125, versus 122 for the Democratic Party) and in terms of how many state legislative chambers lost more Republicans (12, versus 10 for the Democratic Party).

Incumbents

Party	# of termed senators	# of termed representatives	Total
Democratic	33	85	118
Republican	38	84	122
Non-partisan	7	0	7

Chambers

Party	Senates with most losses	Houses with most losses	Total
Democratic	4	6	10
Republican	5	7	12
Equal D/R losses (or non-partisan chamber)	4	0	4

2010

In 2010, a total of 376 seats were termed out in state senates and state houses combined. Of those, 61 seats, or 16.2%, changed party hands. In state senates, 19 seats, or 15.7% of termed-out seats, changed party hands. In state houses, 42 seats, or 16.5% of termed-out seats, changed party hands.

Term-limited seats that changed party control in the 2010 elections
State	Senators Termed Out 2010	Representatives Termed Out 2010	Democratic Seats lost to other Parties - Senate	Republican Seats lost to other Parties - Senate	Democratic Seats lost to other Parties - House	Republican Seats lost to other Parties - House	Percent of Termed-Out Senate Seats that Changed Party	Percent of Termed-Out House Seats that Changed Party	Total Legislative Seats that Changed Party
Arizona	10	13	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0
Arkansas	13	34	7	0	11	1	53.8%	35.3%	19
California	8	18	0	0	1	1	0%	11.1%	2
Colorado	3	8	0	0	1	0	0%	12.5%	1
Florida	7	23	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0
Maine	4	20	1	0	5, 1	2	25%	40%	9
Michigan	29	37	3	0	6	1	10.3%	18.9%	10
Missouri	10	52	1	0	6	0	10%	11.5%	7
Montana	15	15	2	0	4	0	13.3%	26.7%	6
Nebraska	1	N/A	0	0	-	-	0%	-	0
Nevada	4	10	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0
Ohio	7	13	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0
Oklahoma	6	4	4	0	0	0	66.7%	0%	4
South Dakota	4	8	1	0	1	1	25%	25%	3
Total:	121	255	19	0	34, 2	6	15.7%	16.5%	61

Legend: = Seat picked up by Democrat • = Seat picked up by Republican • = Seat picked up by Third Party

See also

• State legislatures with term limits