Difference between revisions of "Incumbents with no primary challenger in the 2010 state legislative elections"

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'''By Geoff Pallay and Leslie Graves'''
 
'''By Geoff Pallay and Leslie Graves'''
  
The state that is least competitive as defined by the % of its seats where the incumbent did not have a primary challenger in 2010 is defined as #46, while the state that is most competitive as defined by the % of its seats where the incumbent did have a primary challenger is defined as #1; that is, '''1 = "most competitive"''', '''46 = "least competitive"'''.
+
There were [[state legislative elections, 2010|6,125 state legislative districts]], in 46 states, with a seat up for election on November 2, 2010. We took a look at each of the 46 states to see how many state legislative incumbents who chose to run for re-election in 2010 '''faced a primary challenger.''' 
 +
 
 +
Our main findings:
 +
 
 +
* The incumbent chose to run for re-election in 4,985 (81.4%) of the 6,125 districts holding state legislative elections in 2010.
 +
* In 3,852 (77.3%) of those 4,985 districts, the incumbent faced no challenger in the primary.
 +
* Thus, only '''1,133 (22.7%)''' of incumbents faced a primary opponent.
 +
* Of those 1,133 incumbents who faced a primary, only 96 were defeated.
 +
 
 +
Comparing states:
 +
[[File:Primary Challengers Map.png|right|370px]]
 +
* '''North Dakota, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota''' had the fewest incumbents facing primary opposition -- in other words, these five states had the '''least amount of competitiveness''' at the primary level. 
 +
* The five states with the '''most competitive primaries''' in terms of incumbents facing primary challengers are '''New Hampshire, Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia and Arizona.'''
 +
 
 +
The score that states received based on their ratio of incumbents facing a primary challenger was [[2010 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index|one of 3 factors used in evaluating]] which states had the highest, and which states had the lowest, [[A "Competitiveness Index" for capturing competitiveness in state legislative elections|overall competitiveness]] in the [[state legislative elections, 2010|2010 state legislative elections]].
 +
 
 +
Additionally, we tracked [[Incumbents with no primary or general election challengers in the 2010 state legislative elections|incumbents that face no primary or general election opposition]] in the 2010 election. This data was not a primary component of the [[A "Competitiveness Index" for capturing competitiveness in state legislative elections|competitiveness index]] but was still compelling information regarding the elections.
 +
 
 +
There are '''1,295 total incumbents (26.12%)''' who were guaranteed to win the race from the moment they registered for re-election -- because no opponent filed to run in the primary or general election.
 +
 
 +
==States compared by primary competition==
 +
<div style="float:left; margin-top: 0.0em; margin-bottom:3px; padding: .2em .6em; font-size: 100%; border:1px solid #A3B1BF;">'''Legend:''' {{legend|#FFBF00|[[Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010|States with state legislative term limits]]}}
 +
 
 +
<span style="font-size: larger;font-weight: bold;"></span></div><br><br><br>
 +
The state that was least competitive as defined by the percentage of its seats where the incumbent did not have a primary challenger in 2010 is defined as #46, while the state that was most competitive as defined by the percentage of its seats where the incumbent did have a primary challenger is defined as #1; that is, '''1 = "most competitive"''', '''46 = "least competitive"'''.  
  
 
{|class="wikitable sortable" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:80%;"
 
{|class="wikitable sortable" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:80%;"
Line 12: Line 36:
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Incumbents w/o primary
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Incumbents w/o primary
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | % w/o primary
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | % w/o primary
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Rank
+
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Primary challenger rank
 +
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Overall competitive rank
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 22: Line 47:
 
| align="center" | 71.7%
 
| align="center" | 71.7%
 
| align="center" | 9
 
| align="center" | 9
 +
| align="center" | 22
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 31: Line 57:
 
| align="center" | 82.2%
 
| align="center" | 82.2%
 
| align="center" | 23
 
| align="center" | 23
 +
| align="center" | 31
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Arizona State Legislature|Arizona]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Arizona State Legislature|Arizona]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona State Senate elections, 2010|30]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona State Senate elections, 2010|30]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|10]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|10]]
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| align="center" | [[Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|15]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|15]]
 
| align="center" | 50%
 
| align="center" | 50%
| align="center" | 5
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 5
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 3
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Arkansas State Legislature|Arkansas]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Arkansas State Legislature|Arkansas]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|3]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|3]]
| align="center" | [[ArkansasHouse of Representatives elections, 2010|100]]
+
| align="center" | [[Arkansas House of Representatives elections, 2010|100]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|57]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|57]]
 
| align="center" | 93.75%
 
| align="center" | 93.75%
| align="center" | 41
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 41
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 33
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[California State Legislature|California]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[California State Legislature|California]]
 
| align="center" | [[California State Senate elections, 2010|20]]  
 
| align="center" | [[California State Senate elections, 2010|20]]  
 
| align="center" | [[California State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|10]]
 
| align="center" | [[California State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|10]]
| align="center" | [[California House of Representatives elections, 2010|80]]
+
| align="center" | [[California State Assembly elections, 2010|80]]
| align="center" | [[California House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|46]]
+
| align="center" | [[California State Assembly elections, 2010#List of candidates|46]]
 
| align="center" | 90.32%
 
| align="center" | 90.32%
| align="center" | 37
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 37
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 11
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Colorado State Legislature|Colorado]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" |[[Colorado General Assembly|Colorado]]
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado State Senate elections, 2010|19]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado State Senate elections, 2010|19]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
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| align="center" | [[Colorado House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|51]]
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|51]]
 
| align="center" | 98.44%
 
| align="center" | 98.44%
| align="center" | 45
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 45
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 21
  
 
|-
 
|-
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| align="center" | 97.62%
 
| align="center" | 97.62%
 
| align="center" | 44
 
| align="center" | 44
 +
| align="center" | 36
  
 
|-
 
|-
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| align="center" | 89.36%
 
| align="center" | 89.36%
 
| align="center" | 35
 
| align="center" | 35
 +
| align="center" | 44
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Florida State Legislature|Florida]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Florida State Legislature|Florida]]
 
| align="center" | [[Florida State Senate elections, 2010|23]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Florida State Senate elections, 2010|23]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Florida State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|8]]
 
| align="center" | [[Florida State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|8]]
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| align="center" | [[Florida House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|70]]
 
| align="center" | [[Florida House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|70]]
 
| align="center" | 80.41%
 
| align="center" | 80.41%
| align="center" | 19
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 19
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 17
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 103: Line 137:
 
| align="center" | 79.29%
 
| align="center" | 79.29%
 
| align="center" | 16
 
| align="center" | 16
 +
| align="center" | 28
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 111: Line 146:
 
| align="center" | [[Hawaii House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|28]]
 
| align="center" | [[Hawaii House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|28]]
 
| align="center" | 59.65%
 
| align="center" | 59.65%
 +
| align="center" | 6
 
| align="center" | 6
 
| align="center" | 6
  
Line 121: Line 157:
 
| align="center" | 72.92%
 
| align="center" | 72.92%
 
| align="center" | 10
 
| align="center" | 10
 +
| align="center" | 30
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 130: Line 167:
 
| align="center" | 82.81%
 
| align="center" | 82.81%
 
| align="center" | 25
 
| align="center" | 25
 +
| align="center" | 39
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 139: Line 177:
 
| align="center" | 83.48%
 
| align="center" | 83.48%
 
| align="center" | 26
 
| align="center" | 26
 +
| align="center" | 37
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 148: Line 187:
 
| align="center" | 92.59%
 
| align="center" | 92.59%
 
| align="center" | 39
 
| align="center" | 39
 +
| align="center" | 29
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Kansas State Legislature|Kansas]]
 
| [[Kansas State Legislature|Kansas]]
| align="center" | [[Kansas State Senate elections, 2010|NA]]
+
| align="center" | NA
| align="center" | [[Kansas State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|NA]]
+
| align="center" | NA
 
| align="center" | [[Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2010|125]]
 
| align="center" | [[Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2010|125]]
 
| align="center" | [[Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|92]]
 
| align="center" | [[Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|92]]
 
| align="center" | 80%
 
| align="center" | 80%
 
| align="center" | 18
 
| align="center" | 18
 +
| align="center" | 34
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 166: Line 207:
 
| align="center" | 81.25%
 
| align="center" | 81.25%
 
| align="center" | 21
 
| align="center" | 21
 +
| align="center" | 43
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Maine State Legislature|Maine ]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Maine State Legislature|Maine ]]
| align="center" | [[Maine State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Maine State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
| align="center" | [[Maine  State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Maine  State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|25]]
| align="center" | [[Maine  House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Maine  House of Representatives elections, 2010|151]]
| align="center" | [[Maine  House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Maine  House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|113]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 97.18%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 43
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 14
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Maryland State Legislature|Maryland]]
 
| [[Maryland State Legislature|Maryland]]
| align="center" | [[Maryland State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Maryland State Senate elections, 2010|47]]  
| align="center" | [[Maryland State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Maryland State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|24]]
| align="center" | [[Maryland House of Delegates  elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Maryland House of Delegates  elections, 2010|141]]
| align="center" | [[Maryland House of Delegates elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Maryland House of Delegates elections, 2010#List of candidates|30]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 33.13%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 2
 +
| align="center" | 5
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Massachusetts State Legislature|Massachusetts]]
 
| [[Massachusetts State Legislature|Massachusetts]]
| align="center" | [[Massachusetts State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Massachusetts State Senate elections, 2010|40]]  
| align="center" | [[Massachusetts State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Massachusetts State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|28]]
| align="center" | [[Massachusetts House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Massachusetts House of Representatives elections, 2010|160]]
| align="center" | [[Massachusetts House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Massachusetts House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|126]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 91.67%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 38
 +
| align="center" | 40
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Michigan State Legislature|Michigan]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Michigan State Legislature|Michigan]]
| align="center" | [[Michigan State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Michigan State Senate elections, 2010|38]]  
| align="center" | [[Michigan State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Michigan State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|6]]
| align="center" | [[Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2010|110]]
| align="center" | [[Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|46]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 76.47%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 13
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 2
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Minnesota State Legislature|Minnesota]]
 
| [[Minnesota State Legislature|Minnesota]]
| align="center" | [[Minnesota State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Minnesota State Senate elections, 2010|67]]  
| align="center" | [[Minnesota State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Minnesota State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|52]]
| align="center" | [[Minnesota House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Minnesota House of Representatives elections, 2010|134]]
| align="center" | [[Minnesota House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Minnesota House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|116]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 94.92%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 42
 +
| align="center" | 24
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Missouri State Legislature|Missouri]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Missouri State Legislature|Missouri]]
| align="center" | [[Missouri State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Missouri State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
| align="center" | [[Missouri State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Missouri State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|4]]
| align="center" | [[Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2010|163]]
| align="center" | [[Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|87]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 85.05%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 28
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 20
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Montana State Legislature|Montana]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Montana State Legislature|Montana]]
| align="center" | [[Montana State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Montana State Senate elections, 2010|26]]  
| align="center" | [[Montana State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Montana State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|9]]
| align="center" | [[Montana House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Montana House of Representatives elections, 2010|100]]
| align="center" | [[Montana House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Montana House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|56]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 85.53%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 30
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00"| 12
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Nebraska State Legislature|Nebraska]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Nebraska State Legislature|Nebraska]]
| align="center" | [[Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010|24]]  
| align="center" | [[Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|8]]
 
| align="center" | NA
 
| align="center" | NA
 
| align="center" | NA
 
| align="center" | NA
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 38.1%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 3
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 7
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Nevada State Legislature|Nevada]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Nevada State Legislature|Nevada]]
| align="center" | [[Nevada State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Nevada State Senate elections, 2010|11]]  
| align="center" | [[Nevada State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Nevada State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|2]]
| align="center" | [[Nevada House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Nevada House of Representatives elections, 2010|42]]
| align="center" | [[Nevada House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Nevada House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|19]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 80.77%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 20
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 4
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[New Hampshire State Legislature|New Hampshire]]
 
| [[New Hampshire State Legislature|New Hampshire]]
| align="center" | [[New Hampshire State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[New Hampshire State Senate elections, 2010|24]]  
| align="center" | [[New Hampshire State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[New Hampshire State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|18]]
| align="center" | [[New Hampshire House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[New Hampshire House of Representatives elections, 2010|400]]
| align="center" | [[New Hampshire House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[New Hampshire House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|65]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 25.78%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 1
 +
| align="center" | 1
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[New Mexico State Legislature|New Mexico]]
 
| [[New Mexico State Legislature|New Mexico]]
| align="center" | [[New Mexico State Senate elections, 2010|10]]
+
| align="center" | NA
| align="center" | [[New Mexico State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | NA
| align="center" | [[New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2010|70]]
| align="center" | [[New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|53]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 79.1%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 15
 +
| align="center" | 42
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[New York State Legislature|New York]]
 
| [[New York State Legislature|New York]]
| align="center" | [[New York State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[New York State Senate elections, 2010|62]]  
| align="center" | [[New York State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[New York State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|44]]
| align="center" | [[New York State Assembly elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[New York State Assembly elections, 2010|150]]
| align="center" | [[New York State Assembly elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[New York State Assembly elections, 2010#List of candidates|105]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 79.68%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 17
 +
| align="center" | 13
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[North Carolina State Legislature|North Carolina]]
 
| [[North Carolina State Legislature|North Carolina]]
| align="center" | [[North Carolina State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[North Carolina State Senate elections, 2010|50]]  
| align="center" | [[North Carolina State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[North Carolina State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|31]]
| align="center" | [[North Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[North Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010|120]]
| align="center" | [[North Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[North Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|82]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 74.34%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 11
 +
| align="center" | 19
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[North Dakota State Legislature|North Dakota]]
 
| [[North Dakota State Legislature|North Dakota]]
| align="center" | [[North Dakota State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[North Dakota State Senate elections, 2010|24]]  
| align="center" | [[North Dakota State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[North Dakota State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|20]]
| align="center" | [[North Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[North Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010|48]]
| align="center" | [[North Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[North Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|35]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 100%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 46
 +
| align="center" | 25
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Ohio State Legislature|Ohio]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Ohio State Legislature|Ohio]]
| align="center" | [[Ohio State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Ohio State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
| align="center" | [[Ohio State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Ohio State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|7]]
| align="center" | [[Ohio House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Ohio House of Representatives elections, 2010|99]]
| align="center" | [[Ohio House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Ohio House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|65]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 84.71%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 27
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 8
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Oklahoma State Legislature|Oklahoma]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Oklahoma State Legislature|Oklahoma]]
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2010|24]]  
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma House of Representatives elections, 2010|101]]
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|76]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 85.44%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 29
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 32
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Oregon State Legislature|Oregon]]
 
| [[Oregon State Legislature|Oregon]]
| align="center" | [[Oregon State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Oregon State Senate elections, 2010|16]]  
| align="center" | [[Oregon State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Oregon State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
| align="center" | [[Oregon House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Oregon House of Representatives elections, 2010|60]]
| align="center" | [[Oregon House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Oregon House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|48]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 86.96%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 32
 +
| align="center" | 27
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Pennsylvania State Legislature|Pennsylvania]]
 
| [[Pennsylvania State Legislature|Pennsylvania]]
| align="center" | [[Pennsylvania State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Pennsylvania State Senate elections, 2010|25]]  
| align="center" | [[Pennsylvania State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Pennsylvania State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|20]]
| align="center" | [[Pennsylvania House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Pennsylvania House of Representatives elections, 2010|203]]
| align="center" | [[Pennsylvania House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Pennsylvania House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|157]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 85.51%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 31
 +
| align="center" | 38
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Rhode Island State Legislature|Rhode Island]]
 
| [[Rhode Island State Legislature|Rhode Island]]
| align="center" | [[Rhode Island State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Rhode Island State Senate elections, 2010|38]]  
| align="center" | [[Rhode Island State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Rhode Island State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|23]]
| align="center" | [[Rhode Island House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Rhode Island House of Representatives elections, 2010|75]]
| align="center" | [[Rhode Island House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Rhode Island House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|39]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 61%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 7
 +
| align="center" | 15
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[South Carolina State Legislature|South Carolina]]
 
| [[South Carolina State Legislature|South Carolina]]
| align="center" | [[South Carolina State Senate elections, 2010|35]]
+
| align="center" | NA
| align="center" | [[South Carolina State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | NA
| align="center" | [[South Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[South Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010|124]]
| align="center" | [[South Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[South Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|87]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 76.99%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 14
 +
| align="center" | 41
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[South Dakota State Legislature|South Dakota]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[South Dakota State Legislature|South Dakota]]
| align="center" | [[South Dakota State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[South Dakota State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
| align="center" | [[South Dakota State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[South Dakota State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|21]]
| align="center" | [[South Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[South Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010|70]]
| align="center" | [[South Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[South Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|43]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 90.14%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 36
 +
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 18
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Tennessee State Legislature|Tennessee]]
 
| [[Tennessee State Legislature|Tennessee]]
| align="center" | [[Tennessee State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Tennessee State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
| align="center" | [[Tennessee State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Tennessee State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|13]]
| align="center" | [[Tennessee House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Tennessee House of Representatives elections, 2010|99]]
| align="center" | [[Tennessee House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Tennessee House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|80]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 87.74%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 34
 +
| align="center" | 45
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Texas State Legislature|Texas]]
 
| [[Texas State Legislature|Texas]]
| align="center" | [[Texas State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Texas State Senate elections, 2010|16]]  
| align="center" | [[Texas State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Texas State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|11]]
| align="center" | [[Texas House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Texas House of Representatives elections, 2010|150]]
| align="center" | [[Texas House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Texas House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|118]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 81.65%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 22
 +
| align="center" | 46
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Utah State Legislature|Utah]]
 
| [[Utah State Legislature|Utah]]
| align="center" | [[Utah State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Utah State Senate elections, 2010|15]]  
| align="center" | [[Utah State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Utah State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|11]]
| align="center" | [[Utah House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Utah House of Representatives elections, 2010|75]]
| align="center" | [[Utah House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Utah House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|45]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 70%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 8
 +
| align="center" | 10
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Vermont State Legislature|Vermont]]
 
| [[Vermont State Legislature|Vermont]]
| align="center" | [[Vermont State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Vermont State Senate elections, 2010|30]]  
| align="center" | [[Vermont State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Vermont State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|20]]
| align="center" | [[Vermont House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Vermont House of Representatives elections, 2010|150]]
| align="center" | [[Vermont House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Vermont House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|127]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 93.04%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 40
 +
| align="center" | 35
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Washington State Legislature|Washington]]
 
| [[Washington State Legislature|Washington]]
| align="center" | [[Washington State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Washington State Senate elections, 2010|25]]  
| align="center" | [[Washington State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Washington State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|16]]
| align="center" | [[Washington House of Representatives elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Washington House of Representatives elections, 2010|98]]
| align="center" | [[Washington House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Washington House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|72]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 87.13%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 33
 +
| align="center" | 26
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[West Virginia State Legislature|West Virginia]]
 
| [[West Virginia State Legislature|West Virginia]]
| align="center" | [[West Virginia State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[West Virginia State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
| align="center" | [[West Virginia State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[West Virginia State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|6]]
| align="center" | [[West Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[West Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2010|100]]
| align="center" | [[West Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[West Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2010#List of candidates|39]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 44.66%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 4
 +
| align="center" | 9
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Wisconsin State Legislature|Wisconsin]]
 
| [[Wisconsin State Legislature|Wisconsin]]
| align="center" | [[Wisconsin State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Wisconsin State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
| align="center" | [[Wisconsin State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Wisconsin State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
| align="center" | [[Wisconsin State Assembly elections, 2010|105]]
+
| align="center" | [[Wisconsin State Assembly elections, 2010|99]]
| align="center" | [[Wisconsin State Assembly elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Wisconsin State Assembly elections, 2010#List of candidates|65]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 82.8%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 24
 +
| align="center" | 16
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [[Wyoming State Legislature|Wyoming]]
 
| [[Wyoming State Legislature|Wyoming]]
| align="center" | [[Wyoming State Senate elections, 2010|10]]  
+
| align="center" | [[Wyoming State Senate elections, 2010|15]]  
| align="center" | [[Wyoming State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Wyoming State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|9]]
| align="center" | [[Wyoming House of Representatives elections, 2010|40]]
+
| align="center" | [[Wyoming House of Representatives elections, 2010|60]]
| align="center" | [[Wyoming House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|?]]
+
| align="center" | [[Wyoming House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|36]]
| align="center" | %
+
| align="center" | 75%
| align="center" |
+
| align="center" | 12
| style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | '''Totals:''' || text align="center" | '''xxxx''' || align="center" | '''xxxx''' || align="center" | '''xxxxx''' || align="center" | '''xxxx''' || align="center" | '''xxxxx''' || align="center" | '''xxxx%''' || align="center" | NA
+
| align="center" | 23
 +
|-class="sortbottom"
 +
| style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | '''Totals:''' || text align="center" | '''1,167''' || align="center" | '''708''' || align="center" | '''4,958''' || align="center" | '''3,153''' || align="center" | '''77.31%''' || align="center" | '''NA''' || align="center" | NA
  
 
|}
 
|}
Line 435: Line 507:
 
* [[State legislative elections, 2010]]
 
* [[State legislative elections, 2010]]
 
* [[Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010]]
 
* [[Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010]]
* [[Ballotpedia:Competitiveness analysis and partisan impact]]
+
* [[Partisan balance of legislatures and 2010 competitiveness]]
 
* [[Major party candidates with no major party challengers in the November 2010 state legislative elections]]
 
* [[Major party candidates with no major party challengers in the November 2010 state legislative elections]]
 
* [[Open seats in the 2010 state legislative elections]]
 
* [[Open seats in the 2010 state legislative elections]]
 +
* [[Incumbents with no primary or general election challengers in the 2010 state legislative elections]]
  
 
{{state legislatures}}
 
{{state legislatures}}
 
{{ballotpedia}}
 
{{ballotpedia}}
[[Category:Competitiveness analysis of state legislative elections]]
+
[[Category:Competitiveness analysis of state legislative elections, 2010]]
 +
[[Category:Competitiveness analysis of state legislative elections, 2010, report in detail]]

Latest revision as of 11:11, 27 June 2013

2010 Competitiveness Overview
Competitiveness logo 4.jpg
Primary competition (state comparison)
Incumbents with no primary challenge in 2010
Incumbents with no challenges at all in 2010
Incumbents defeatedVictorious challengers
Major party challengers (state comparison)
List of candidates with no competition
Open seats (state comparisons)
Impact of term limits on # of open seats
Long-serving senatorsLong-serving reps
Star bookmark.png   Results Comparisons  Star bookmark.png
Chart Comparing 2011 ResultsComparisons Between Years
Party differences
Competitiveness Index
2010 State Legislative Elections
Competitiveness Studies from Other Years
200720092011201220132014

By Geoff Pallay and Leslie Graves

There were 6,125 state legislative districts, in 46 states, with a seat up for election on November 2, 2010. We took a look at each of the 46 states to see how many state legislative incumbents who chose to run for re-election in 2010 faced a primary challenger.

Our main findings:

  • The incumbent chose to run for re-election in 4,985 (81.4%) of the 6,125 districts holding state legislative elections in 2010.
  • In 3,852 (77.3%) of those 4,985 districts, the incumbent faced no challenger in the primary.
  • Thus, only 1,133 (22.7%) of incumbents faced a primary opponent.
  • Of those 1,133 incumbents who faced a primary, only 96 were defeated.

Comparing states:

Primary Challengers Map.png
  • North Dakota, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota had the fewest incumbents facing primary opposition -- in other words, these five states had the least amount of competitiveness at the primary level.
  • The five states with the most competitive primaries in terms of incumbents facing primary challengers are New Hampshire, Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia and Arizona.

The score that states received based on their ratio of incumbents facing a primary challenger was one of 3 factors used in evaluating which states had the highest, and which states had the lowest, overall competitiveness in the 2010 state legislative elections.

Additionally, we tracked incumbents that face no primary or general election opposition in the 2010 election. This data was not a primary component of the competitiveness index but was still compelling information regarding the elections.

There are 1,295 total incumbents (26.12%) who were guaranteed to win the race from the moment they registered for re-election -- because no opponent filed to run in the primary or general election.

States compared by primary competition

Legend:      States with state legislative term limits



The state that was least competitive as defined by the percentage of its seats where the incumbent did not have a primary challenger in 2010 is defined as #46, while the state that was most competitive as defined by the percentage of its seats where the incumbent did have a primary challenger is defined as #1; that is, 1 = "most competitive", 46 = "least competitive".

State Senate at stake Incumbents w/o primary House at stake Incumbents w/o primary  % w/o primary Primary challenger rank Overall competitive rank
Alabama 35 22 105 64 71.7% 9 22
Alaska 10 9 40 28 82.2% 23 31
Arizona 30 10 60 15 50% 5 3
Arkansas 17 3 100 57 93.75% 41 33
California 20 10 80 46 90.32% 37 11
Colorado 19 12 65 51 98.44% 45 21
Connecticut 36 32 151 132 97.62% 44 36
Delaware 11 9 41 33 89.36% 35 44
Florida 23 8 120 70 80.41% 19 17
Georgia 56 34 180 123 79.29% 16 28
Hawaii 13 6 51 28 59.65% 6 6
Idaho 35 21 70 49 72.92% 10 30
Illinois 21 17 118 89 82.81% 25 39
Indiana 25 19 100 77 83.48% 26 37
Iowa 25 21 100 79 92.59% 39 29
Kansas NA NA 125 92 80% 18 34
Kentucky 19 11 100 80 81.25% 21 43
Maine 35 25 151 113 97.18% 43 14
Maryland 47 24 141 30 33.13% 2 5
Massachusetts 40 28 160 126 91.67% 38 40
Michigan 38 6 110 46 76.47% 13 2
Minnesota 67 52 134 116 94.92% 42 24
Missouri 17 4 163 87 85.05% 28 20
Montana 26 9 100 56 85.53% 30 12
Nebraska 24 8 NA NA 38.1% 3 7
Nevada 11 2 42 19 80.77% 20 4
New Hampshire 24 18 400 65 25.78% 1 1
New Mexico NA NA 70 53 79.1% 15 42
New York 62 44 150 105 79.68% 17 13
North Carolina 50 31 120 82 74.34% 11 19
North Dakota 24 20 48 35 100% 46 25
Ohio 17 7 99 65 84.71% 27 8
Oklahoma 24 12 101 76 85.44% 29 32
Oregon 16 12 60 48 86.96% 32 27
Pennsylvania 25 20 203 157 85.51% 31 38
Rhode Island 38 23 75 39 61% 7 15
South Carolina NA NA 124 87 76.99% 14 41
South Dakota 35 21 70 43 90.14% 36 18
Tennessee 17 13 99 80 87.74% 34 45
Texas 16 11 150 118 81.65% 22 46
Utah 15 11 75 45 70% 8 10
Vermont 30 20 150 127 93.04% 40 35
Washington 25 16 98 72 87.13% 33 26
West Virginia 17 6 100 39 44.66% 4 9
Wisconsin 17 12 99 65 82.8% 24 16
Wyoming 15 9 60 36 75% 12 23
Totals: 1,167 708 4,958 3,153 77.31% NA NA

See also