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Difference between revisions of "Incumbents with no primary challenger in the 2010 state legislative elections"

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Comparing states:
 
Comparing states:
  
* '''North Dakota, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota''' have the fewest incumbents facing primary opposition.   
+
* '''North Dakota, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota''' have the fewest incumbents facing primary opposition -- in other words, these five states had the ''least amount of competitiveness'' at the primary level.   
 
* The five states with the ''most competitive primaries'' in terms of incumbents facing challengers are '''New Hampshire, Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia and Arizona.'''
 
* The five states with the ''most competitive primaries'' in terms of incumbents facing challengers are '''New Hampshire, Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia and Arizona.'''
  
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==States compared by primary competition==
 
==States compared by primary competition==
 +
<div style="float:left; margin-top: 0.0em; margin-bottom:3px; background-color: #transparent; padding: .2em .6em; font-size: 100%; border:1px solid #A3B1BF;">'''Legend:''' {{legend|#FFBF00|[[Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010|States with state legislative term limits]]}}
 +
<span style="font-size: larger;font-weight: bold;"></span></div><br><br><br>
  
 
{|class="wikitable sortable" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:80%;"
 
{|class="wikitable sortable" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:80%;"
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|-
 
|-
| [[Arizona State Legislature|Arizona]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Arizona State Legislature|Arizona]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona State Senate elections, 2010|30]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona State Senate elections, 2010|30]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|10]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|10]]
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| align="center" | [[Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|15]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|15]]
 
| align="center" | 50%
 
| align="center" | 50%
| align="center" | 5
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 5
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Arkansas State Legislature|Arkansas]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Arkansas State Legislature|Arkansas]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|3]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|3]]
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| align="center" | [[Arkansas House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|57]]
 
| align="center" | [[Arkansas House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|57]]
 
| align="center" | 93.75%
 
| align="center" | 93.75%
| align="center" | 41
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 41
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[California State Legislature|California]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[California State Legislature|California]]
 
| align="center" | [[California State Senate elections, 2010|20]]  
 
| align="center" | [[California State Senate elections, 2010|20]]  
 
| align="center" | [[California State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|10]]
 
| align="center" | [[California State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|10]]
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| align="center" | [[California House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|46]]
 
| align="center" | [[California House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|46]]
 
| align="center" | 90.32%
 
| align="center" | 90.32%
| align="center" | 37
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 37
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Colorado State Legislature|Colorado]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" |[[Colorado State Legislature|Colorado]]
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado State Senate elections, 2010|19]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado State Senate elections, 2010|19]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
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| align="center" | [[Colorado House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|51]]
 
| align="center" | [[Colorado House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|51]]
 
| align="center" | 98.44%
 
| align="center" | 98.44%
| align="center" | 45
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 45
  
 
|-
 
|-
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|-
 
|-
| [[Florida State Legislature|Florida]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Florida State Legislature|Florida]]
 
| align="center" | [[Florida State Senate elections, 2010|23]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Florida State Senate elections, 2010|23]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Florida State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|8]]
 
| align="center" | [[Florida State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|8]]
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| align="center" | [[Florida House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|70]]
 
| align="center" | [[Florida House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|70]]
 
| align="center" | 80.41%
 
| align="center" | 80.41%
| align="center" | 19
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 19
  
 
|-
 
|-
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|-
 
|-
| [[Maine State Legislature|Maine ]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Maine State Legislature|Maine ]]
 
| align="center" | [[Maine State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Maine State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Maine  State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|25]]
 
| align="center" | [[Maine  State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|25]]
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| align="center" | [[Maine  House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|113]]
 
| align="center" | [[Maine  House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|113]]
 
| align="center" | 97.18%
 
| align="center" | 97.18%
| align="center" | 43
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 43
  
 
|-
 
|-
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|-
 
|-
| [[Michigan State Legislature|Michigan]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Michigan State Legislature|Michigan]]
 
| align="center" | [[Michigan State Senate elections, 2010|38]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Michigan State Senate elections, 2010|38]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Michigan State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|6]]
 
| align="center" | [[Michigan State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|6]]
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| align="center" | [[Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|46]]
 
| align="center" | [[Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|46]]
 
| align="center" | 76.47%
 
| align="center" | 76.47%
| align="center" | 13
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 13
  
 
|-
 
|-
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|-
 
|-
| [[Missouri State Legislature|Missouri]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Missouri State Legislature|Missouri]]
 
| align="center" | [[Missouri State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Missouri State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Missouri State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|4]]
 
| align="center" | [[Missouri State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|4]]
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| align="center" | [[Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|87]]
 
| align="center" | [[Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|87]]
 
| align="center" | 85.05%
 
| align="center" | 85.05%
| align="center" | 28
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 28
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Montana State Legislature|Montana]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Montana State Legislature|Montana]]
 
| align="center" | [[Montana State Senate elections, 2010|26]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Montana State Senate elections, 2010|26]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Montana State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|9]]
 
| align="center" | [[Montana State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|9]]
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| align="center" | [[Montana House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|56]]
 
| align="center" | [[Montana House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|56]]
 
| align="center" | 85.53%
 
| align="center" | 85.53%
| align="center" | 30
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 30
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Nebraska State Legislature|Nebraska]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Nebraska State Legislature|Nebraska]]
 
| align="center" | [[Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010|24]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010|24]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|8]]
 
| align="center" | [[Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|8]]
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| align="center" | NA
 
| align="center" | NA
 
| align="center" | 38.1%
 
| align="center" | 38.1%
| align="center" | 3
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 3
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Nevada State Legislature|Nevada]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Nevada State Legislature|Nevada]]
 
| align="center" | [[Nevada State Senate elections, 2010|11]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Nevada State Senate elections, 2010|11]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Nevada State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|2]]
 
| align="center" | [[Nevada State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|2]]
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| align="center" | [[Nevada House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|19]]
 
| align="center" | [[Nevada House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|19]]
 
| align="center" | 80.77%
 
| align="center" | 80.77%
| align="center" | 20
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 20
  
 
|-
 
|-
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|-
 
|-
| [[Ohio State Legislature|Ohio]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Ohio State Legislature|Ohio]]
 
| align="center" | [[Ohio State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Ohio State Senate elections, 2010|17]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Ohio State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|7]]
 
| align="center" | [[Ohio State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|7]]
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| align="center" | [[Ohio House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|65]]
 
| align="center" | [[Ohio House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|65]]
 
| align="center" | 84.71%
 
| align="center" | 84.71%
| align="center" | 27
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 27
  
 
|-
 
|-
| [[Oklahoma State Legislature|Oklahoma]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[Oklahoma State Legislature|Oklahoma]]
 
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2010|24]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2010|24]]  
 
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
 
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|12]]
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| align="center" | [[Oklahoma House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|76]]
 
| align="center" | [[Oklahoma House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|76]]
 
| align="center" | 85.44%
 
| align="center" | 85.44%
| align="center" | 29
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 29
  
 
|-
 
|-
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|-
 
|-
| [[South Dakota State Legislature|South Dakota]]
+
| style="background-color:#FFBF00" | [[South Dakota State Legislature|South Dakota]]
 
| align="center" | [[South Dakota State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
 
| align="center" | [[South Dakota State Senate elections, 2010|35]]  
 
| align="center" | [[South Dakota State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|21]]
 
| align="center" | [[South Dakota State Senate elections, 2010#List of candidates|21]]
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| align="center" | [[South Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|43]]
 
| align="center" | [[South Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2010#List of candidates|43]]
 
| align="center" | 90.14%
 
| align="center" | 90.14%
| align="center" | 36
+
| align="center" style="background-color:#FFBF00" | 36
  
 
|-
 
|-

Revision as of 13:43, 27 September 2010

2010 Competitiveness Overview
Competitiveness logo 4.jpg
Primary competition (state comparison)
Incumbents with no primary challenge in 2010
Incumbents with no challenges at all in 2010
Incumbents defeatedVictorious challengers
Major party challengers (state comparison)
List of candidates with no competition
Open seats (state comparisons)
Impact of term limits on # of open seats
Long-serving senatorsLong-serving reps
Star bookmark.png   Results Comparisons  Star bookmark.png
Chart Comparing 2011 ResultsComparisons Between Years
Party differences
Competitiveness Index
2010 State Legislative Elections
Competitiveness Studies from Other Years
2007200920112012

By Geoff Pallay and Leslie Graves

There are 6,125 state legislative districts with a seat up for election on November 2, 2010, in 46 states. We took a look at each of the 46 states to see how many state legislative incumbents who chose to run for re-election in 2010 faced a primary challenger.

The state that is least competitive as defined by the % of its seats where the incumbent did not have a primary challenger in 2010 is defined as #46, while the state that is most competitive as defined by the % of its seats where the incumbent did have a primary challenger is defined as #1; that is, 1 = "most competitive", 46 = "least competitive".

Our main findings:

  • The incumbent chose to run for re-election in 4,985 (81.4%) of the 6,125 districts holding state legislative elections in 2010.
  • In 3,861 (77.31%) of those 4,985 districts, the incumbent faced no challenger in the primary.
  • Adjusting for open seats (1,140 districts where no incumbent is running), there are

Comparing states:

  • North Dakota, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota have the fewest incumbents facing primary opposition -- in other words, these five states had the least amount of competitiveness at the primary level.
  • The five states with the most competitive primaries in terms of incumbents facing challengers are New Hampshire, Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia and Arizona.

The score that states received based on their ratio of incumbents facing a primary challenger is one of 3 factors used in evaluating which states have the highest, and which the lowest, overall competitiveness in the 2010 state legislative elections.

States compared by primary competition

Legend:      States with state legislative term limits



State Senate at stake Incumbents w/o primary House at stake Incumbents w/o primary  % w/o primary Rank
Alabama 35 22 105 64 71.7% 9
Alaska 10 9 40 28 82.2% 23
Arizona 30 10 60 15 50% 5
Arkansas 17 3 100 57 93.75% 41
California 20 10 80 46 90.32% 37
Colorado 19 12 65 51 98.44% 45
Connecticut 36 32 151 132 97.62% 44
Delaware 11 9 41 33 89.36% 35
Florida 23 8 120 70 80.41% 19
Georgia 56 34 180 123 79.29% 16
Hawaii 13 6 51 28 59.65% 6
Idaho 35 21 70 49 72.92% 10
Illinois 21 17 118 89 82.81% 25
Indiana 25 19 100 77 83.48% 26
Iowa 25 21 100 79 92.59% 39
Kansas NA NA 125 92 80% 18
Kentucky 19 11 100 80 81.25% 21
Maine 35 25 151 113 97.18% 43
Maryland 47 24 141 30 33.13% 2
Massachusetts 40 28 160 126 91.67% 38
Michigan 38 6 110 46 76.47% 13
Minnesota 67 52 134 116 94.92% 42
Missouri 17 4 163 87 85.05% 28
Montana 26 9 100 56 85.53% 30
Nebraska 24 8 NA NA 38.1% 3
Nevada 11 2 42 19 80.77% 20
New Hampshire 24 18 400 65 25.78% 1
New Mexico NA NA 70 53 79.1% 15
New York 62 44 150 105 79.68% 17
North Carolina 50 31 120 82 74.34% 11
North Dakota 24 20 48 35 100% 46
Ohio 17 7 99 65 84.71% 27
Oklahoma 24 12 101 76 85.44% 29
Oregon 16 12 60 48 86.96% 32
Pennsylvania 25 20 203 157 85.51% 31
Rhode Island 38 23 75 39 61% 7
South Carolina NA NA 124 87 76.99% 14
South Dakota 35 21 70 43 90.14% 36
Tennessee 17 13 99 80 87.74% 34
Texas 16 11 150 118 81.65% 22
Utah 15 11 75 45 70% 8
Vermont 30 20 150 127 93.04% 40
Washington 25 16 98 72 87.13% 33
West Virginia 17 6 100 39 44.66% 4
Wisconsin 17 12 99 65 82.8% 24
Wyoming 15 9 60 36 75% 12
Totals: 1,167 708 4,958 3,153 77.31% NA

See also