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Revision as of 22:56, 14 December 2013

2014



CongressLogo.png

Kentucky's 6th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
May 22, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Andy Barr Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Ben Chandler Democratic Party
Ben Chandler.jpg

Kentucky U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Kentucky.png
The 6th congressional district of Kentucky held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
This is the 6th congressional district prior to the 2010 redistricting.

Andy Barr was elected on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
February 7, 2012
May 22, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Kentucky has a closed primary system, meaning the selection of a party's candidates in a primary election is limited to registered members of that party.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 23. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[2]

See also: Kentucky elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Ben Chandler (D), who was first elected in 2004.

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Kentucky's 6th congressional district is based in central Kentucky and contains the cities of Lexington (including its suburbs), Richmond, and Frankfort, the state capital. Fleming, Robertson, Harrison, Nicholas, Bath, Menifee, Wolfe, Powell, Estill, Madison, Jessamine, Fayette, Anderson, Franklin, Scott, Clark, Mongomery, and Bourbon counties are included in the district. [3]

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Ben Chandler
Republican Party Andy Barr Green check mark transparent.png
Independent Randolph Vance


May 22, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

IndependentThird-Party Candidates

Election

General Election

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Barr 50.6% 153,222
     Democratic Ben Chandler Incumbent 46.7% 141,438
     Independent Randolph Vance 2.8% 8,340
Total Votes 303,000
Source: Kentucky Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals"

Republican Primary

Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Barr 82.8% 20,104
Curtis Kenimer 5.6% 1,354
Patrick J. Kelly II 11.6% 2,823
Total Votes 24,281

Race background

Competitiveness

Kentucky's 6th was considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler was challenged by his 2010 opponent, Andy Barr (R), who he narrowly defeated before. However, Chandler had gained a slight edge through redistricting.[7]

Republican challenger Andy Barr had been included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlighted challengers who represent the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[8]

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for Kentucky's 6th. The report examined the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." [9]

After the election, the Sunlight Foundation listed four races where outside spending likely pushed the winner over the top. Barr was listed as one of the four, spurred on by more than $1 million in spending by independent groups, including the Americans for Tax Reform and the National Republican Campaign Committee.[11] [12]

Endorsements

Republican candidate Andy Barr was endorsed by representative Bill Farmer,[13] Terry E. Forcht, founder and CEO of Forcht Bank and the Forcht Group of Kentucky,[13] Ralph Hacker, president of HMH Broadcasting,[13] representative Mike Harmon,[13]Bob Mayfield, owner of Mayfield Trucking and the chair of the Clark County Republican Party,[13] John Roach, former General Counsel to Governor Ernie Fletcher,[13] business owner and former University of Kentucky basketball player J.P. Blevins,[13] Bob Gable, former Chairman of the Kentucky Republican Party,[13] former U.S. House representatives Stan Cave and Larry Brandstetter,[13] and former representatives Clarence D. Noland, Jr. and Pat Freibert.[13]

Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler obtained endorsements from the Herald-Leader[14] and the National Rifle Association.[15]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Kentucky

In redistricting, the 6th district was modified with the effect that, had the 2008 presidential election been held under the new boundaries, Democratic nominee Barack Obama would have received a share of the vote 1.5 percentage points greater than that which he achieved under the former boundaries.[16]

It lost Mercer, Boyle and Garrard Counties and rural western Jessamine County, including Wilmore in redistricting.[16] However, it also picked up Nicholas, Fleming, Bath, Menifee and Wolfe counties and part of Harrison County in the east, as well as about 5,100 new voters in northern Scott County who used to be in the 4th District.[16]

Registration statistics

As of October 24, 2012, District 6 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Kentucky State Board of Elections:

Kentucky Congressional District 6[17]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 6 489,951 289,420 162,652 37,879 Democratic 77.94% 12.01%
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Kentucky's 6th District became less Republican because of redistricting.[18]

  • 2012: 42D / 58R
  • 2010: 40D / 60R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Kentucky's 6th congressional district has a PVI of R+7, which is the 146th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 54-46 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 57-43 percent over John Kerry (D).[19]

Campaign donors

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are Andy Barr and Ben Chandler's reports.

Andy Barr (2012)[20] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[21]April 15, 2012$364,584.78$184,571.90$(78,329.53)$470,827.15
Pre-Primary[22]May 10, 2012$470,827.15$33,055.07$(37,508.11)$466,374.11
July Quarterly[23]July 13, 2012$466,374.11$359,507.96$(67,779.7)$758,102.37
October Quarterly[24]October 10, 2012$758,102.37$806,198.53$(775,035.57)$789,265.33
Pre-General[25]October 21, 2012$789,265.33$84,711.16$(520,854.78)$353,121.71
Running totals
$1,468,044.62$(1,479,507.69)
Ben Chandler (2012)[26] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly [27]April 13, 2012$864,747.79$221,436.39$(47,043.03)$1,039,141.15
Pre-Primary [28]May 16, 2012$1,039,141.15$130,731.77$(17,046.22)$1,152,826.70
July Quarterly [29]July 13, 2012$1,152,826.70$269,388.05$(76,551.41)$1,345,663.34
October Quarterly[30]October 11, 2012$1,345,663.34$503,679.22$(1,016,242.68)$833,099.88
Pre-General[31]October 24, 2012$833,099.88$132,150.63$(401,987.85)$563,262.66
Running totals
$1,257,386.06$(1,558,871.19)

Polls

2012

Public Opinion Strategies, June 24-26 2012[32]
Poll Ben Chandler Andy BarrMargin of ErrorSample Size
Kentucky's 6th congressional district
49%42%+/-4.9400
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

District history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Ben Chandler won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Garland "Andy" Barr, Republican (R), C. Wes Collins (Write-In), and Randolph S. Vance (Write-In) in the general election.[33]

U.S. House of Representatives, Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Chandler Incumbent 50.1% 119,812
     Republican Garland "Andy" Barr 49.8% 119,164
     Independent C. Wes Collins 0.1% 225
     independent Randolph S. Vance 0% 22
Total Votes 239,223

2008

On November 2, 2008, incumbent Ben Chandler won re-election to the United States House of Representatives over opponent Joe Larson. [34]

U.S. House of Representatives, Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Chandler Incumbent 64.7% 203,764
     Republican Joe Larson 35.3% 111,378
Total Votes 315,142

2006

On November 2, 2006, incumbent Ben Chandler won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Paul Ard, who ran as a Libertarian. [35]

U.S. House of Representatives, Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Chandler Incumbent 85.5% 158,765
     Libertarian Paul Ard 14.5% 27,015
Total Votes 185,780

See also


External links

References

  1. ABC News "2012 General Election Results"
  2. Kentucky State Board of Elections "Voter Information Guide," Accessed June 29, 2012
  3. Kentucky Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed July 24, 2012
  4. 4.0 4.1 Politico "Barr launching a rematch with Chandler" accessed December 18, 2011
  5. WLKY "Election Results" accessed May 22, 2012
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 Kentucky Secretary of State "Candidate Filings" accessed January 10, 2012
  7. New York Times "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 10, 2012
  8. NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
  9. Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  10. The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012
  11. Sunlight Foundation "Four House races where outside money may have pushed the needle" November 7, 2012
  12. http://www.nvsos.gov/SilverState2012pri/congressional.aspx#AllRace1011
  13. 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 Andy Barr for Congress "Endorsements" Accessed April 13, 2012
  14. Ben Chandler for Congress "Herald-Leader Endorses Ben Chandler" Accessed April 13, 2012
  15. Ben Chandler for Congress "NRA Endorses Ben Chandler" Accessed April 13, 2012
  16. 16.0 16.1 16.2 Channel 2 Pure Politics "Analysis: New congressional map only slightly moves the political needle in the 6 districts" Accessed February 29, 2012
  17. Kentucky State Board of Elections, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," June 11, 2012
  18. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Kentucky," September 2012
  19. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  20. FEC Reports "Andy Barr Summary Reports" Accessed July 11, 2012
  21. FEC Reports "April Quarterly," Accessed July 11, 2012
  22. FEC Reports "Pre-Primary," Accessed July 11, 2012
  23. FEC Reports "July Quarterly," Accessed October 1, 2012
  24. FEC Reports "October Quarterly," Accessed November 1, 2012
  25. FEC Reports "Pre-General," Accessed November 1, 2012
  26. FEC Reports "Ben Chandler Summary Reports "Accessed July 11, 2012
  27. FEC Reports "April Quarterly" Accessed July 11, 2012
  28. FEC Reports "Pre-Primary" Accessed July 11, 2012
  29. FEC Reports "July Quarterly" Accessed October 1, 2012
  30. FEC Reports "October Quarterly," Accessed November 1, 2012
  31. FEC Reports "Pre-General," Accessed November 1, 2012
  32. My Channel 2 "Barr down by five points to Chandler in new internal poll" Accessed July 11, 2012
  33. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010" Accessed November 15, 2011
  34. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2008" Accessed September 10, 2012
  35. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2006" Accessed September 10, 2012