Difference between revisions of "Maine Gubernatorial election, 2014"

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{{megovtoc14}}{{tnr}}The '''Maine gubernatorial election''' will take place on [[State executive official elections, 2014|November 4, 2014]]. Incumbent [[Paul LePage]] (R) is eligible for re-election. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office.
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{{megovtoc14}}{{tnr}}The '''Maine gubernatorial election''' will take place on [[State executive official elections, 2014|November 4, 2014]]. Incumbent [[Paul LePage]] (R) is running for re-election. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office.
 
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LePage has said that will likely seek a second term as governor.<ref name=gov14/> However in June 2013, LePage surprised even his own political adviser when he announced that he might forgo a 2014 re-election bid in order to run for Rep. Mike Michaud's seat in the U.S. House, which will be opened in 2014 assuming Michaud follows through on his anticipated gubernatorial campaign. LePage said he was exploring the congressional race, "because it can't be any worse in Washington than it is here...Everything's on the table. Retirement, Social Security, running for Congress, maybe going back to Marden's to stock shelves. Who knows? I don't take myself as seriously as all you do."<ref name=congbid14/>
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A report released by ''Governing'' in December 2012 named him as one of five governors vulnerable to losing re-election in 2013-2014.<ref>[http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-2013-2014-governors-races-vulnerable.html ''Governing Politics,'' "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?," December 11, 2012]</ref>
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Revision as of 10:24, 7 October 2013


StateExecLogo.png

Maine Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
June 10, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Race rating: Toss-up

Incumbent prior to election:
Paul LePage Republican Party
PaulLePage.jpg

Maine State Executive Elections
Governor

Battleground Races
Maine State Senate

Possible trifecta for Democrats
WhoRunsTheStates Badge.jpg
State executive offices in Maine
Flag of Maine.png
The Maine gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Paul LePage (R) is running for re-election. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office.

Maine is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[1][2][3]

Office Incumbent Assumed Office Incumbent running?
Governor Paul LePage
PaulLePage.jpg
2011 Yes[4]

Candidates

Note: The following list of candidates is not official and will continue to be updated until the 2014 candidate filing deadline. Candidates will be added as we come across them prior to the deadline. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

General election

Republican Party Paul LePage - Incumbent[5][6]
Democratic Party Mike Michaud - U.S. House Rep.[7][8]
Independent Eliot Cutler - Former congressional aide and 2010 Independent candidate for governor[6][9][10]

Withdrawn

Independent Lee Schultheis - Retired finance executive[11]

Failed to qualify

Independent Adam Eldridge - Project Engineer[12]
Independent David Slagger, Maine Green Independent Party - Ex-Maliseet Tribal Rep. to the state legislature and 2012 state house candidate[13]

Race background

Paul LePage is running for a second term as governor in 2014.[14][7] The often divisive Republican is widely considered one of the most vulnerable gubernatorial incumbents facing re-election this year. Sources ranging from Governing, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Washington Post and Daily Kos have rated the 2014 Maine governor's race as a tossup.[15][16][17][18] In June 2013, after Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud launched his bid for the office, LePage briefly indicated interest in running for Michaud's seat in the U.S. House in 2014 as a way to avoid the risk of a formidable challenge. LePage ultimately decided to seek re-election as governor.[19][20]

Michaud's revelation

On November 4, 2013, after establishing himself as the race's front-runner, Michaud disclosed in an op-ed column submitted to three of the state’s major news outlets that he is gay.[21] Michaud emphasized that his sexuality is irrelevant to his ability to perform as governor, if elected. He said he came out in response to "whisper campaigns" instigated by opponents in order to cast suspicion about his personal life.[22] The revelation puts Michaud in the running to become the first openly gay man or woman to be elected governor in the nation's history.

Campaign finance decision in district court

An August 22 decision by U.S. District Court judge D. Brock Hornby regarding campaign finance limits in Maine could lead to more money in the gubernatorial race. Hornby ruled that a group of four donors to the campaign of independent candidate Eliot Cutler could go beyond a $1,500 per person limit on general election contributions for unaffiliated candidates. Democratic and Republican candidates in Maine enjoy a higher contribution limit because they can max out the individual donation limit in the primary and general election reporting periods. Both major-party candidates did not face primary challenges this year, though the individual limit reset after the statewide primary on June 10.[23]

Attorneys representing the Maine Commission on Governmental Ethics and Election Practices defended the contribution limits, citing their ability to reduce corrupt practices. The state's attorneys also argued that supporters can use PACs to support their preferred candidates. Hornby dismissed these arguments, noting that the current limitation treats contributors differently based on their political leanings. The decision left open the question of whether all donors to Cutler could contribute $3,000 ahead of the general election, or if the ruling focused on the four plaintiffs. The donors who brought the original lawsuit will also pursue further action to enshrine Hornby's decision into state law.[23]

The Maine Ethics Commission voted unanimously on August 27 to not enforce the $1,500 limit for each election, opting instead for a $3,000 per individual limit for this election cycle. The board's decision only applies to the 2014 election, and the Maine State Legislature would need to act for similar changes in future elections.[24]

Dueling campaign finance complaints

The Maine Democratic Party filed an ethics complaints in early October against Paul LePage, claiming that the governor used state property as part of his re-election campaign. The complaint argued that a campaign spokesperson used a state-funded vehicle in order to reach election-related events. The state Republican Party countered with a complaint against Mike Michaud that accused the U.S. House member of using federal campaign money for his gubernatorial campaign. The Maine Ethics Commission unanimously rejected further investigation of both claims on October 10, 2014.[25]

Polls

General election match-ups (October 2014)

2014 Maine gubernatorial election- Three-way race
Poll Mike Michaud (D) Paul LePage* (R)Eliot Cutler (I)Undecided or refusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
{September 20-October 1, 2014}
39%37%10%13%+/-31,531
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(October 5-7, 2014)
43%39%15%3%+/-4605
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos
(October 6-12, 2014)
42%36%16%6%+/-3.51,004
Public Policy Polling
(October 22-23, 2014)
40%40%17%3%+/-3.6660
AVERAGES 41% 38% 14.5% 6.25% +/-3.53 950
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

General election match-ups (August 2013-September 2014

2014 Maine gubernatorial election - Three-way race
Poll Mike Michaud (D) Paul LePage* (R)Eliot Cutler (I)Undecided or refusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
(August 23-25, 2013)
39%35%18%8%+/-3.2953
Maine People's Resource Center
(September 8-10, 2013)
40%34%16.8%9.1%+/-3.84652
Public Policy Poll
(November 8-11, 2013)
38%36%15%10%+/-3.2964
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(January 13-23, 2014)
45%32%18%5%+/--400
Public Policy Polling
(April 1-2, 2014)
44%37%14%5%+/--583
The Pan Atlantic SMS Group
(March 31- April 5, 2014)
37.3%38.6%20.3%3.7%+/-4.9400
Rasmussen Reports
(April 23-25, 2014)
40%40%14%6%+/-3.0830
Public Policy Polling
(May 5-6, 2014)
43%39%15%3%+/--754
Maine People's Resource Center
(July 26-28, 2014)
42.6%41.4%12.6%3.4%+/-3.47796
Rasmussen Reports
(September 3-4, 2014)
43%39%15%4%+/-4750
Public Policy Polling
(September 9, 2014)
43%42%11%4%+/-31,059
Portland Press Herald
(September 18-25, 2014)
40%38%12%10%+/-4.4482
Pan Atlantic SMS Group
(September 23-29, 2014)
33.6%39.3%19.5%7.8%+/-4.9400
AVERAGES 40.65% 37.79% 15.48% 6.08% +/-2.38 694.08
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) is used to denote incumbent status
Hypothetical and other match-ups

2014 Maine gubernatorial election - Two-way race
Poll Mike Michaud (D) Paul LePage* (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research/National Education Association
(July 11-16, 2013)
61%34%5%+/-4.9400
Public Policy Polling
(August 23-25, 2013)
54%39%7%+/-3.2953
Maine People's Resource Center
(September 8-10, 2013)
55.9%36.1%7.9%+/-3.84652
Public Policy Poll
(November 8-11, 2013)
53%39%8%+/-3.2964
Portland Press Herald
(June 12-18, 2014)
51%44%4%+/-3.9625
AVERAGES 54.98% 38.42% 6.38% +/-3.81 718.8
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) is used to denote incumbent status

Hypothetical Match-up Poll
Poll Mike Michaud (D) Paul LePage* (R)Eliot Cutler (I)Margin of ErrorSample Size
Portland Press Herald
(June 12-18, 2014)
40%36%15%+/-3.9625
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) is used to denote incumbent status

Hypothetical Match-up Poll
Poll Eliot Cutler (I) Paul LePage* (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Portland Press Herald
(June 12-18, 2014)
50%38%9%+/-3.9625
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) is used to denote incumbent status

See also

External links

BP-Initials-UPDATED.png
Suggest a link

Campaign websites

References

  1. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  2. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  3. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  4. Paul LePage for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed October 3, 2013
  5. LePage for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 9, 2013
  6. 6.0 6.1 Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," March 4, 2013
  7. 7.0 7.1 The Washington Post blogs, "Rep. Mike Michaud steps into Maine governors race," June 13, 2013
  8. Michaud 2014 For Governor Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed June 26, 2013
  9. Eliot Cutler for Maine 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 9, 2013
  10. Bangor Daily News, "Independent Eliot Cutler announces run for governor in Bangor," September 24, 2013
  11. GBNR 2014 Official Campaign Website of Lee Schulteis, "Homepage," accessed September 9, 2013
  12. Kennebec Journal, "Michaud to formalize gubernatorial bid Thursday in Lewiston," August 14, 2013
  13. David Slagger for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 9, 2013
  14. Maine Biz, "LePage eyes long-term goals, says 2014 run likely," May 8, 2013
  15. University of Virginia Center for Politics: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," April 29, 2013
  16. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top gubernatorial races," September 27, 2013
  17. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings: Initial ratings for 2013-14," October 6, 2013
  18. Governing Politics, "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?," December 12, 2012
  19. The Morning Sentinel, "LePage: Sorry if you were offended," June 24, 2013
  20. The Washington Post blogs, "Rep. Mike Michaud steps into Maine governors race," June 13, 2013
  21. Portland Press Herald, "Rep. Michaud’s op-ed column: Yes, I’m gay. Now let’s get our state back on track," November 4, 2013
  22. Portland Press Herald, "Maine governor candidate Mike Michaud: I’m gay ," accessed November 4, 2013
  23. 23.0 23.1 The Bellingham Herald, "Judge: Cutler donors can increase contributions," August 22, 2014
  24. Bangor Daily News, "Maine Ethics Commission changes donor limit rule in governor’s race," August 27, 2014
  25. Portland Press Herald, "Maine ethics panel dismisses complaints in governor’s race," October 11, 2014