Maryland gubernatorial election, 2010

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Breaking news

In the Maryland gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, incumbent Democrat Martin O'Malley defeated Republican Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr. Ehrlich himself previously served a single term as governor, before losing to O'Malley in 2006.

In the September 14 primary elections, Ehrlich and O'Malley each won an overwhelming victory against token opposition.

November 2, 2010 general election results

As of December 1, 2010, results were certified.[1]

Maryland Gubernatorial/Lieutenant Gubernatorial General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMartin O'Malley/Anthony G. Brown Incumbent 56.2% 1,044,961
     Republican Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr./Mary Kane 41.8% 776,319
     Libertarian Susan J. Gaztanaga/Doug McNeil 0.8% 14,137
     Green Maria Allwine/Ken Eidel 0.6% 11,825
     Constitution Eric Delano Knowles/Michael T. Hargadon 0.5% 8,612
     Democratic Ralph Jaffe (Write-In) 0% 319
     Unaffiliated Corrogan R. Vaughan/Jim Crawford 0% 179
     Other Write-Ins Various 0.1% 1,528
Total Votes 1,857,880
Election Results Via: Maryland State Board of Elections

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Governor O'Malley began his second term on January 12, 2011.

Transition team

As a reeelected incumbent, Martin O'Malley did not have the same level of transition activity as some newly elected governors. His Lieutenant Governor, Anthony G. Brown also returned to serve another term

September 14, 2010 primary

O'Malley faced token opposition in J.P. Cusick and Ralph Jaffe; between the two of them, their vote share amounts to less than 15%, leaving the incumbent to gallop away with the voters' blessing to seek a third term.

For the GOP, Maryland was the stage for another battle between and establishment favorite, well-connected to the party and adept at maneuvering in political waters, and a newcomer backed by the Tea Party. Sarah Palin's endorsement and a last minute push by supporters wasn't enough to bring Murphy within striking distance and he fell to Ehrlich by a 5:1 ratio.[2]

From 2003 to 2007, Ehrlich was Maryland chief executive, making him the first Republican to helm the state since the late 1960's. Two decades Murphy's senior and with statewide name recognition, Ehrlich was already commanding the field with only 2% of precincts reporting.[3] Some observers suggest that Ehrlich may benefit in the general election from having faced Murphy in the primary season. Murphy was significantly to the right of Ehrlich and the latter has, to some extent, painted himself as a moderate relative to Ehrlich, something that may help in the next seven weeks.

Polls taken during the primary testing the electoral waters for a race between O'Malley and Ehrlich showed a dead heat. Democrats held a 2:1 registration edge over the GOP in Maryland. On the other hand, during his term on office, Ehrlich took positions on issues such as minimum wage and mandating employer provided health care that would tar his conservatives credentials in some states but which set him out as the sort of Republican that Maryland would elect.

Democratic

2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary[4]
Candidates Percentage
J.P. Cusick and Michael W. Lang. Jr. (D) 10.89%
Ralph Jaffe and Freda Jaffe(D) 4.03%
Martin O'Malley and Anthony G. Brown (D) 85.08%
Total votes 36,945

Republican

2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary[5]
Candidates Percentage
Robert L. "Bob" Ehrlich, Jr. and Mary Kane (R) 80.22%
Brian Murphy and Mike Ryman (R) 19.78%
Total votes 23,175

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings Maryland
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[6] Lean Democrat
Congressional Quarterly Politics[7] Leans Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Likely Democratic
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[9] Solid Democratic
The Rothenberg Political Report[10] Democrat Favored
Overall Call Democratic

Changes

6. Cook Political Report moved race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democrat" on October 29th.

5. Larry J. Sabato moved race from "Leans Democrat" to "Likely Democrat" on October 28th.

4. Rothenberg moved race from "Lean Democrat" to "Democrat Favored" on October 28th.

3. Rasmussen moved race from "Toss-up" to "Solid Democratic" on October 24th.

2. Rothenberg moved race from "Toss-up Tilting Democratic" to "Lean Democrat" on October 1st ratings.

1. Cook Political Report moved race from "Lean Democratic" to "Toss-up" in September 30th ratings.

Polling

General election polling

Ehrlich had more or less every registered Republican in the state on his side and was walking away with the Independent vote. But in Maryland, that isn't enough by itslef. O'Malley argued that returning the governorship to GOP hands would damage Maryland, something that stymied Ehrlich's attempt o get the same crossover support that won him the race in 2002.

2010 Race for Maryland Governor - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Ehrlich (R) O'Malley (D) Other Don't Know
October 4, 2010[11] 41% 49% 1% 8%
September 22-26, 2010[12] 41% 52% - 6%
(Sample)[13] n=730 MoE=+/- 4.0% p=0.05

Primary election polling

In a Magellan poll of 750 likely voters taken on June 29, 2010, Democratic incumbent Martin O'Malley trailed his Republican challenger, Bob Ehrlich 43% to 46%.[14] The same poll found that Ehrlich enjoyed a 51% 'Favorable' rating while Gov. O'Malley had gone 'upside down', with 'Unfavorable' opinion slightly edging 'Favorable' opinion, 45% to 41%.

Rasmussen also showed a remarkable trend in this traditionally blue state. July 8, 2010 polls results put Ehrlich at 47% to O'Malley's 45%.[15] Preceding polls going back to late February show that O'Malley's one time six point lead has slowly eroded.[16] [17] [18] As the incumbent, Martin O'Malley was also plagued by voter dissatisfaction with his job performance; those who 'strongly disapproved' of him represented a third of the voters he needed in November. Voters who 'somewhat' or 'strongly' disapprove of O'Malley's leadership totaled 48%, while those 'somewhat' and 'strongly' in approval added up to 50%, an edge, if a worryingly small one.

Contrasting O'Malley's numbers as the governor to his numbers as a candidate, his positives slightly outweighed his negatives - 49% to 45%. Opponent Bob Ehrlich posted a 54% to 37% spread on the same question, meaning that O'Malley had a deficit to make up before voters headed to the polls.[19]

The tightening of the race intensified the attention pollsters pay to the looming contest. On July 14, 2010, Public Policy Polling released new numbers putting O'Malley and Ehrlich at 45% and 42%, respectively.[20] Realistically, such poll results meant the race was neck and neck. DC based political news serviced Real Clear Politics moved its own weighting of the gubernatorial contest slightly to reflect the new polls from Rasmussen and PPP, giving the GOP's Ehrlich a tiny 0.3% lead.[21] Closing out July, the Baltimore Sun's survey have O'Malley a tiny lead, 45% to Ehrlich's 42%, with 7% of voters still deciding.[22] Patrick Gonzales, who ran the Sun's poll, noted the undeniably tight numbers and said, "it's clear that either candidate could win in November."[23]

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who's Made It? Maryland Governor[24]
Nominee Affiliation
Martin O'Malley, with Anthony G. Brown Democrat
Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr., with Mary Kane Republican
Maria Allwine, with Ken Eidel Green
Susan J. Gaztanaga, with Doug McNeil Libertarian
Eric Delano Knowles, with Michael Hargadon Constitution Party
Ralph Jaffe, with Freda Jaffe write-in (Democratic)
Corrogan R. Vaughan, with Jim Crawford write-in (Democratic)
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who have since been officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Constitution

  • Eric Delano Knowles is an Air Force vet who worked as a bartender in Annapolis.[25] [26]
  • with Michael Hargadon, a retired dentist, for Lieutenant Governor

Democratic

  • J.P. Cusick's campaign was highly focused on child support and custody issues. He has himself served time on two occasions for failing to make court ordered child support payments and three time for vandalizing government buildings, includng spray painting portions of the Ten Commandments on the Maryland State House. A perennial candidate, Cusick is proud of his record and uses it when campaigning.[27] On his campaign site, he states he is, "financing his own campaign and...does not request [or] require any campaign contributions".[28]
  • with Michael W. Lang, Jr. for Lieutenant Governor. Interestingly, Lang ran his own campaign website, which was linked to via Cusick's page. Lang is a Korean War vet and worked as a computer scientist for U.S. Naval Logistics out of Annapolis before retiring.
  • Ralph Jaffe runs a non-traditional school from his home; he admitted at a candidate forum that he did not recognize that the man he stopped to ask for directions as he was on the way to file his candidacy papers was Martin O'Malley.[29]
  • with Freda Jaffee for Lieutenant Governor. Miss Jaffee is the candidate's sister.
  • Martin O'Malley, the current governor.
  • with Anthony G. Brown for Lieutenant Governor. Brown is a former Minority Whip for the Maryland House of Delegates and an Army Reservist. He is also Gov. O'Malley's current Lt. Gov.
  • George Owings - Former State Veterans Affairs Secretary and former State House Majority Whip [30] As of late June, he was on no official list of candidates. On July 1, 2010, he officially withdrew from the race, saying only he had undergone emergency treatment for a major disease and was following his physician's recommendation to recover.[31]

Green

  • Maria Allwine is a long-time activist, especially related to 'social justice' actions. At a 2006 protest outside the National Security Agency, she was one of 13 activists taken into custody for coming too close to Fort Meade[32] All charges were ultimately dimissed by the U.S. District Court.
  • with Ken Eidell for Lieutenant Governor
  • Corrogan R. Vaughan began the midterm election cycle as a Senate hopeful before switching to a gubernatorial candidacy. He worked in the airline industry for several years before the September 11th attacks and lost his job in the ensuing industry contraction. Since then, he returned to school and worked in political consultancy. On his website, Mr. Vaughan self-identified as Republican and described himself as, "a Christian conservative who is a constitutionalist and understands that our nation is not a democracy but a republic, one nation under God."[33]
  • with Jim Crawford for Lieutenant Governor

Libertarian

  • Susan J. Gaztanaga has been heavily active in Maryland's libertarian campaigns for years. Her husband, Lorenzo, also ran on a libertarian ticket, seeking the win the state's 2nd Congressional District.
  • with Doug McNeil for Lieutenant Governor. One of the founder's of Baltimore's Libertarian Party, McNeil is an Army vet and works as a computer engineer. He also runs a non-partisan group dedicated to fairness and transparency in ballot access. He was intially running his own gubernatorial bid, which he ended in order to join Gaztanaga's ticket.

Republican

  • Attorney Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr.[34] served first in Maryland's state legislature and later in Congress before winning election as the first Republican governor the state had chosen in 30 years in 2002. Following his single term in office, he returned to private legal practice.
  • with Mary Kane for Lieutenant Governor. Kane was the Maryland Secretary of State from 2005 to 2007 and has also served as Special Projects Director for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
  • Larry Hogan, founder and CEO of the Hogan Company, was part of Bob Ehrlich's cabinet during the latter's first term. On February 1, 2010, he announced, "I am officially concluding my exploratory committee and calling on my friend Bob Ehrlich to enter this race for governor." He also formally endorsed the choice of Mary Kane to co-campaign with Ehrlich.
  • Patrick McDonough, District 7 delegate from 1979-1998 and from 2003-present.[35]
  • Brian Murphy, graduate of the University of Maryland, former Constellation Energy employee, and founder of Plimhimmon Group and Smith Island Baking Company. [36]
  • with Mike Ryman for Lieutenant Governor. Ryman is a former USMC officer and FBI agent. He more recently retired from the U.S. Government as a Federal Senior Executive Service law enforcement officer. He joined Murphy's ticket on July 16, 2010. Previously the Murphy campaign had Carmen M. Amedori, a former member of both the State House of Delegates and the Maryland Parole Commission, on board. Miss Amedori left the campaign's ticket, in late April, only shortly after signing on on April 17th; in interviews she stated she still believed Murphy was a good alternative to Ehrlich but that she did not believe he could win a primary. She also formally endorsed Ehrlich.[37] The day before accepting the Lt. Gov. slot of Mr. Murphy's ticket, she ended her own bid for the U.S. Senate.
  • Michael J. Pappas, Parliamentarian of the Maryland Republican Party and second Vice-Chair of the Baltimore County Republican Central Committee, formed an exploratory committee in December 2008.[38] He ceased campaigning in early November 2009, saying, "I have determined that the best interest of my family and business requires that I stop my run for Governor effective immediately." On his since shuttered website, he added that he exited the race in order to give his family the support that would allow his wife to accept an executive level job and because he felt his obligations to his law firm's clients meant he did not have the time to campaign. He endorsed Larry Hogan for the GOP gubernatorial nominee; Hogan, however, soon left the race, himself.

Campaign finance

The Maryland State Board of Elections makes PDFs of all reports and addenda for candidates available free and online at their "Campaign Finance Database.

Candidates for 2010 are most easily searchable using the "Summary Reports Filed Page"

A guide to forms and reports submitted by candidates and committees is also online at Maryland's ELECTrack page.

Additionally, information on campaign fiance disclosures is broken down into several useful metrics on "Follow the Money."

Reporting periods and due dates

Reporting periods and due dates for statewide candidates for the November 2010 elections were as follows:

  • 2009 Annual (due the 3rd Wednesday of January each year, or January 20, 2010)
  • Pre-Primary 1 (due the 4th Tuesday preceding the Primary Election, or August 13, 2010)
  • Pre-Primary 2 (due the 2nd Friday preceding the Primary Election, or September 3, 2010)
  • Pre-General (due the 2nd Friday preceding the Election, or October 22, 2010)
  • Post-General (due the 3rd Tuesday following the General Election, or November 23, 2010)
  • 2010 Annual (due the 3rd Wednesday of January each year, or January 12, 2011)

Martin O'Malley

Martin Joseph O'Malley Campaign Finance Reports
Report Date Filed Beginning Balance Cash Contributions Loans Non-Monetary Contributions (Total Expenditures) Cash on Hand
Pre-Primary 2[39] September 3, 2010 $5,365,859.54 $239,411.19 $0.00 $3,082.51 $(418,352.01) $5,186,918.72
Pre-Primary 1[40] August 17, 2010 $4,815,924.37 $2,848,728.09 $0.00 $27,598.86 $(2,298,792.92) $5,365,859.54
2010 Annual[41] January 20, 2010 $1,783,415.16 $4,013,017.81 $0.00 $83,108.17 $(980,508.60) $4,815,924.37
Totals - $7,101,157.09 $0.00 $113,789.54 $(3,697,653.53) -

Bob Ehrlich

Bob Ehrlich Campaign Finance Reports
Report Date Filed Beginning Balance Cash Contributions Loans Non-Monetary Contributions (Total Expenditures) Outstanding Debts Cash on Hand
Pre-Primary 2[42] September 3, 2010 $2,066,299.13 $698,114.66 $0.00 $11,651.67 $(292,606.18) $ $2,471,807.61
Pre-Primary 1[43] August 17, 2010 $141,778.90 $3,169,863.93 $0.00 $57,400.19 $(1,245,343.70) $44,500.00 $2,066,299.13
2010 Annual[44] January 20, 2010 $151,529.00 $76,397.81 $0.00 $7,377.20 $(86,147.91) $0.00 $141,778.90
Totals - $3,944,376.40 $0.00 $76,429.06 $(1,424,097.49) - -

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[45]
Candidates Percentage
Parris N. Glendening (D) 55.14%
Ellen R. Sauerbrey (R) 44.82%
Jacqueline Crabtree (Democratic write-in) 0%
Total votes 1,535,978
2002 Gubernatorial Results[46]
Candidates Percentage
Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr. (R) 51.55%
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) 47.68%
Spear Lancaster (L) 0.68%
Ralph Jaffe (Democratic write-in) 0.01%
James T. Lynch, Jr. (Democratic write-in) 0.00%
Total votes 1,706,179
2006 Gubernatorial Results[47]
Candidates Percentage
Martin O'Malley (D)' 52.7%
Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr.(R) 46.2%
Boyd (G) 0.9%
Driscoll (Populist) 0.2%
Simmins (Republican write-in) 0.00%
Ralph Jaffe(Democratic write-in) 0.00%
Smith(Democratic write-in) 0.00%
Total votes 1,788,316

Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 40.2%
Al Gore (D) 56.6%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 42.9%
John Kerry (D) 55.9%
2008 Presidential Results[48]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 36.5%
Barack Obama (D) 61.9%


1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 35.6%
Bill Clinton (D) 49.8%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 38.3%
Bill Clinton (D) 54.3%

See also

External links

Candidate pages

Candidate emails

  • Maria Allwine: mariarichard@verizon.net
  • Anthony G. Brown: agb692@yahoo.com
  • Vaughan R. Corrogan: corrogangop1@msn.com
  • Jim Crawford: jim@us2000.org
  • J. P. Cusick: JPCusickSR@yahoo.com
  • Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr.: teamehrlich@bobehrlich.com
  • Ken Eidel: kceidel@verizon.net
  • Susan J. Gaztanaga: DiazVivar@aol.com
  • Michael Hargadon: m.hargadon@verizon.net
  • Ralph Jaffee: Rjaffe4@verizon.net
  • Mary Kane: teamehrlich@bobehrlich.com
  • Eric Delano Knowles: ofbyandforthepeople1776@gmail.com
  • Doug McNeil: MDfor Democracy@aol.com
  • Brian Murphy: campaign@brianmurphy2010.com
  • Martin O'Malley: trussell@martinomalley.com
  • Mike Ryman: mike4murphy@gmail.com

References

  1. Maryland State Board of Elections, "2010 General Election Unofficial Results, updated November 10, 2010 at 14:51, accessed November 10, 2010 and December 21, 2010.
  2. Fox News, "Ehrlich Beats Palin-Backed Candidate in GOP Primary for Maryland Governor", September 14, 2010
  3. Business Week, "Ehrlich Republican Win Sets Maryland Governor Rematch", September 14, 2010
  4. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2010 Unofficial Primary Election Results ”, September 14, 2010
  5. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2010 Unofficial Primary Election Results ”, September 14, 2010
  6. The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  7. CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  8. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  9. Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  10. Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  11. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Maryland Governor: O’Malley (D) Pulls Ahead of Ehrlich (R)”, October 5, 2010
  12. Washington Post, “O'Malley gains ground over Ehrlich in Maryland governor's race, poll shows”, August 26, 2010
  13. [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  14. Magellan, "BOB EHRLICH HAS SLIGHT LEAD ON MARTIN O’MALLEY, 46% TO 43%", July 2, 2010
  15. Rasmussen Reports, "Maryland Governor: Ehrlich 47%, O’Malley 46%", July 12, 2010
  16. Rasmussen Reports, "Maryland Governor: O’Malley 49%, Ehrlich 43%", February 26, 2010
  17. Rasmussen Reports, "Maryland Governor: O’Malley 47%, Ehrlich 44%", April 22, 2010
  18. Rasmussen Reports, "Maryland Governor: Ehrlich (R) 45%, O’Malley (D) 45%", June 10, 2010
  19. Rasmussen Reports, "Toplines - Maryland Governor - July 8, 2010", July 8, 2010
  20. Public Policy Polling, "The Maryland governor's race is close", July 12, 2010
  21. Real Clear Politics, "Ehrlich Moves Ahead In RCP Average For Maryland", July 14, 2010
  22. Real Clear Politics, "MD Gov Poll: O'Malley With Slight Edge", July 27, 2010
  23. Baltimore Sun, "Gonzales poll shows statistical tie in governor's race", July 27, 2010
  24. Maryland State Board of Elections, “General Election State Candidates List”, official as of October 6, 2010
  25. Constitution Party News, "Eric Delano Knowles Seeks Constitution Party NominationFor Governor Of Maryland!", July 15, 2010
  26. FaceBook, "Eric Knowles for Governor, accessed July 23, 2010
  27. Washington Post, "A Maverick Proud of His Jail Time Takes on Steny Hoyer in Primary", February 4, 2008
  28. Vote JP, "Platform and Financing", accessed July 23, 2010
  29. The Baltimore Sun, "Lesser-known candidates also want to be governor", July 10, 2010
  30. Washington Post, "O'Malley Might Face Democratic Challenger", May 7, 2009
  31. Home Town Annapolis, "George Owings drops out of governor's race", July 1, 2010
  32. Jonah House, "13 PEACE ACTIVISTS ARRESTED AT NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY", July 6, 2006
  33. Vaughan 4 Maryland, "Candidate Profile, accessed July 23, 2010
  34. Ehrlich Portrait Unveiled In Annapolis, June 4, 2008
  35. Baltimore Sun, "McDonough says he would test waters of gubernatorial run", August 12, 2009
  36. Washington Post, "Businessman Brian Murphy enters GOP primary race for Md. governor", April 17, 2010
  37. The Dysfunction of Maryland Politics and the National Scene, "Lt. Governor Candidate Carmen Amedori Leaves Camp Murphy, Throws Support behind Bob Ehrlich for Governor", April 30, 2010
  38. PolitickerMD, "Pappas throws name in ring for governor", December 9, 2008
  39. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2010 Gubernatorial 2010 Pre-Primary 2 (09/03/2010) for the 'O'Malley, Martin Friends Of' account”, accessed October 9, 2010
  40. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2010 Gubernatorial 2010 Pre-Primary 1 (08/17/2010) for the 'O'Malley, Martin Friends Of' account”, accessed October 9, 2010
  41. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2010 Annual 2010 (01/20/2010) for the 'O'Malley, Martin Friends Of' account”, accessed October 9, 2010
  42. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2010 Gubernatorial 2010 Pre-Primary 2 (09/03/2010) for the 'Ehrlich, Bob For Maryland Committee' account”, accessed October 9, 2010
  43. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2010 Gubernatorial 2010 Pre-Primary 1 (08/17/2010) for the 'Ehrlich, Bob For Maryland Committee' account”, accessed October 9, 2010
  44. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2010 Annual 2010 (01/20/2010) for the 'Ehrlich, Bob For Maryland Committee' account”, accessed October 9, 2010
  45. Maryland State Board of Elections, “1998 Gubernatorial General Election Results”, last updated October 24, 2000
  46. Maryland State Board of Elections, “2002 Gubernatorial General - Official Results”, certified December 2, 2002
  47. Maryland State Board of Elections, “Official 2006 Gubernatorial General Election results for Governor / Lt. Governor”
  48. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010