Difference between revisions of "Michigan Gubernatorial election, 2014"

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===Declined Potentials===
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*{{bluedot}} [[Mark McFarlin]] - licensed private investigator with the Central Bureau of Investigation<ref name=election>[http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/11/post_93.html ''M Live,'' Tim Skubick: Obscure Democratic candidate for Michigan governor thinks Obama's birth certificate is suspect, November 29, 2013]</ref>
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*{{bluedot}} [[Virg Bernero]] - 2010 Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan<ref name=ppp/><ref>[http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2013/03/lansing_mayor_virg_bernero_won_1.html ''MLive.com,'' "Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero won't run for governor, Senate or Congress in 2014," March 20, 2013]</ref>
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*{{bluedot}} [[Gary Peters]] - U.S. Representative, Michigan, District 14<ref name=ppp/>
  
 
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Revision as of 11:56, 25 April 2014



StateExecLogo.png

Michigan Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
August 5, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

November 4 Election Winners:
Rick Snyder Republican Party
Brian Calley Republican Party
Incumbents prior to election:
Rick Snyder Republican Party
Brian Calley Republican Party
Rick Snyder
Brian Calley
Michigan State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor Lieutenant Governor
Secretary of StateAttorney General

Battleground Races
Michigan House of Representatives

Current trifecta for Republicans
WhoRunsTheStates Badge.jpg
State executive offices in Michigan
Flag of Michigan.png
The Michigan gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Rick Snyder (R) ran for re-election. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office.

Michigan is one of 14 states that uses an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[1][2][3]

Candidates

Note: The following list of candidates is not official and will continue to be updated until the 2014 candidate filing deadline. Candidates will be added as we come across them prior to the deadline. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

General election

Republican Party Rick Snyder/Brian Calley - IncumbentsGreen check mark transparent.png
Democratic Party Mark Schauer/Lisa Brown[4][5]
Libertarian Party Mary Buzuma/Scott Boman
Independent U.S. Taxpayers Party candidates Mark McFarlin/Richard Mendoza
Green Party Paul Homeniuk/Candace R. Caveny

Did not qualify

Independent Robin Sanders[6]

Declined potentials

Democratic Party Virg Bernero - 2010 Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan[5][7]
Democratic Party Gary Peters - U.S. Representative, Michigan, District 14[5]

Declined Potentials

Race background

First-term Republican Gov. Rick Snyder won re-election in 2014.[10] In December 2012, in the wake of the passage of a "right-to-work" law that provoked protests, particularly from unions, a Public Policy Poll showed dwindling chances for the governor to win another term compared to a similar poll released the previous month. His approval tumbled a net -28 points, with respondents preferring each of the poll's four hypothetical Democratic challengers over Snyder for 2014.[11][12]

At a Republican leadership conference back in September 2011, Snyder told an interviewer that if he felt satisfied with the legacy he established during his first term, he would be inclined to pass the torch to "better, smarter people," indicating that a 2014 re-election bid was not guaranteed to happen. He went on to say that, should he decline to run for a second term, he would be "happy to go fishing, go teach or do something else," rather than seek a new political office.[13]

In late September 2013, Snyder began airing commercials talking about his successes in office. While the governor suggested they were not campaign commercials, they were widely seen as a way to boost Snyder before the 2014 campaign got underway.[14][15] Around that time, Snyder was publicly targeted for defeat in 2014 by the AFL-CIO.

The general election race took shape following August party conventions that saw Snyder and Democratic candidate Mark Schauer win their party nominations. Early polling for the general election revealed a close race, with a Mitchell Research survey showing a five-point lead for Snyder when all candidates were available to respondents. Head-to-head polling grew closer after August 2014, with Schauer and Snyder narrowly winning polls from EPIC-MRA and Detroit News-WDIV, respectively. A We Ask America poll in late September showed a tie race between Schauer and Snyder, with 10 percent of voters undecided.[16]

Endorsements

Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed Rick Snyder ahead of the general election. Bloomberg coupled the endorsement with $2.3 million in TV ad purchases on behalf of Snyder, citing the governor's independent-mindedness as a reason for the support. The former mayor also endorsed Democratic candidate Gary Peters in the U.S. Senate race.[17]

Convention challenge for Calley

Lt. Gov. Brian Calley faced a challenge from Wes Nakagiri in the August 23 state Republican convention, and received enough precinct delegates to hold off the challenge. Gov. Rick Snyder announced his desire to see Calley join him on the ticket, but party rules dictated that the convention's delegates select nominees rather than the general public. Eleven employees from the governor's and lieutenant governor's offices sought delegate seats in the primary. There was also an influx of money from the Michigan Advocacy Trust, which distributed mailers supporting pro-Calley candidates in Clinton County[18] Calley defeated Nakagiri during the convention, with reports noting that the lieutenant governor received at least 60 percent of delegate votes.[19]

Polls

All candidates

Governor of Michigan - All candidates
Poll Rick Snyder* (R) Mark Schauer (D)Mary Buzuma (L)Mark McFarlin (UST)Paul Homeniuk (G)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
(September 4-7, 2014)
43%42%3%2%1%9%+/-3.7687
Mitchell Research
(September 14, 2014)
46%41%4%2%1%6%+/-3.4829
We Ask America
(September 18-19, 2014)
43%43%2%1%1%10%+/-31,182
Mitchell Research
(September 29, 2014)
46%42%2%1%1%8%+/-2.861,178
The Detroit News/WDIV
(October 2-4, 2014)
44.9%37.1%1.7%0.5%1.2%14.7%+/-4600
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Research
(October 9, 2014)
47%46%1%1%2%3%+/-2.711,306
Mitchell Research
(October 19, 2014)
48%45.7%1%1.4%1%2.9%+/-3.23919
Mitchell Research
(October 27, 2014)
48%43%2%1%0.4%5%+/-2.881,159
Public Policy Polling
(November 1-2, 2014)
46%45%3%0%1%5%+/--914
AVERAGES 45.77% 42.76% 2.19% 1.1% 1.07% 7.07% +/-2.86 974.89
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Major party candidates

Governor of Michigan - Major party candidates- October 2014
Poll Rick Snyder* (R) Mark Schauer (D)Third Party/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
MRG Poll
(September 30-October 1, 2014)
45.7%40.5%13.9%+/-4600
Public Policy Polling
(October 2-3, 2014)
47%46%7%+/-3654
EPIC-MRA
(October 17-19, 2014)
47%39%14%+/-4600
Public Policy Polling
(October 20-21, 2014)
48%48%4%+/-3.6723
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
(October 16-23, 2014)
44%45%12%+/-32,394
EPIC-MRA
(October 26-28, 2014)
45%43%12%+/-4600
AVERAGES 46.12% 43.58% 10.48% +/-3.6 928.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Michigan - Major party candidates through September 2014
Poll Rick Snyder* (R) Mark Schauer (D)Third Party/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
EPIC-MRA
(May 2013)
38%39%23%+/-4600
EPIC-MRA
(September 2013)
44%36%20%+/-4600
Public Policy Poll
(December 5-8, 2013)
44%40%16%+/-3.01,034
Conservative Intel Poll
(January 7-8, 2014)
47%35%18%+/-3.831,004
EPIC-MRA
(February 5-11, 2014)
47%39%14%+/-4.0600
Lambert, Edwards & Associates (dead link)
(March 14, 2014)
42%39%19%+/-4.0600
Mitchell Research & Communications
(April 9, 2014)
49%37%15%+/-2.561,460
Mitchell Research and Communications
(June 6, 2014)
46%41%13%+/-3.16961
EPIC-MRA
(August 22-25, 2014)
43%45%12%+/-4600
Detroit News-WDIV
(September 3-5, 2014)
43.6%41.8%14.5%+/-4600
Rasmussen Reports
(September 17-18, 2014)
47%41%12%+/-4750
Target Insyght
(September 22-24, 2014)
41%40%19%+/-4600
EPIC-MRA
(September 25-29, 2014)
45%39%16%+/-4600
Lake Research Partners
(September 26-30, 2014)
44%43%12%+/-4600
AVERAGES 44.33% 39.7% 15.96% +/-3.75 757.79
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
  • An asterisk denotes incumbent status.

See also

External links

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Suggest a link

References

  1. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  2. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  3. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  4. Mark Schaur for Governor Campaign Website, "Home," accessed May 29, 2013
  5. 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 Public Policy Polling, "Snyder's popularity plummets," December 18, 2012
  6. Ann Arbor, "Ann Arbor man looks to wage Independent campaign for governor of Michigan," May 30, 2013
  7. MLive.com, "Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero won't run for governor, Senate or Congress in 2014," March 20, 2013
  8. M Live, Tim Skubick: Obscure Democratic candidate for Michigan governor thinks Obama's birth certificate is suspect, November 29, 2013
  9. MLive.com, "Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero won't run for governor, Senate or Congress in 2014," March 20, 2013
  10. Governing, Michigan Governor Announces Re-election Bid, Despite Controversies, February 4, 2014
  11. Public Policy Polling, "Snyder's popularity plummets," December 18, 2012
  12. Public Policy Polling, "An early look at the 2014 governor landscape," November 12, 2012
  13. Michigan Live, "Gov. Rick Snyder says he might not run for re-election in 2014 -- could Brian Calley or Bill Schuette succeed him?," September 25, 2011
  14. MLive, "Tim Skubick: Gov. Snyder's ads cleverly make a pre-emptive strike," September 29, 2013
  15. Huffington Post, "Rick Snyder Hopes To Be 'Reasonable Model' For GOP," September 22, 2013
  16. MLive, "AFL-CIO to target Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, other Republican governors in 2014 election cycle," August 13, 2013
  17. The Detroit News, "Bloomberg endorses Snyder, Peters," October 7, 2014
  18. MLive.com, "Michigan 2014 Primary: Snyder staffers run for precinct posts with Calley nomination on the line," August 4, 2014
  19. Detroit Free Press, "GOP chooses Calley over Nakagiri for lieutenant governor," August 23, 2014