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Difference between revisions of "Montana's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2012"

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==Race background==
 
==Race background==
 
Montana's at-large District has been included in the [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee#Red to Blue|Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]]'s "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.<ref>[http://www.dccc.org/pages/redtoblue ''DCCC,'' "Red to Blue 2012"]</ref>
 
Montana's at-large District has been included in the [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee#Red to Blue|Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]]'s "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.<ref>[http://www.dccc.org/pages/redtoblue ''DCCC,'' "Red to Blue 2012"]</ref>
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====Cook Political Report's PVI====
 
====Cook Political Report's PVI====
 
:''See also: [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index]]''
 
:''See also: [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index]]''
 
In 2012, ''Cook Political Report'' released its updated figures on the [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index|Partisan Voter Index]], which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. [[Montana's at-large congressional district]] has a PVI of R+7, which is the 145th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by [[John McCain]] (R), 51-49 percent over [[Barack Obama]] (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-40 percent over [[John Kerry]] (D).<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf ''Cook Political Report'' "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012]</ref>
 
In 2012, ''Cook Political Report'' released its updated figures on the [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index|Partisan Voter Index]], which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. [[Montana's at-large congressional district]] has a PVI of R+7, which is the 145th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by [[John McCain]] (R), 51-49 percent over [[Barack Obama]] (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-40 percent over [[John Kerry]] (D).<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf ''Cook Political Report'' "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012]</ref>
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 +
==Polls==
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{{Poll2
 +
|Title=Gillan vs. Daines
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|Poll1=[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling (September 10&11, 2012)]
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|Poll2=[http://missoulian.com/news/local/gop-s-daines-leads-u-s-house-race-poll-but/article_3a315270-0462-11e2-a80d-0019bb2963f4.html Mason-Dixon Polling (September 22, 2012)]
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|Poll3=[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling (October 10, 2012)]
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|Poll4=[http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/Montana.pdf Pharos Research Group] <br>(October 26-28, 2012)
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|Poll5=
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|Poll6=
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|Poll7=
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|Poll8=
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|Response1= Kim Gillan
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|Response2=Steve Daines
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|Response3=Other
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|Response4=Undecided
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|Numberpolled1=656
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|Numberpolled2=625
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|Numberpolled3=737
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|Numberpolled4=799
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|Margin of error1 =3.8
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|Margin of error2 =4
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|Margin of error3 =3.6
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|Margin of error4 =3.5
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|Response1Poll1% = 37
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|Response2Poll1% = 40
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|Response3Poll1% = 9
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|Response4Poll1% = 15
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|Response1Poll2% = 38
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|Response2Poll2% = 46
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|Response3Poll2% = 2
 +
|Response4Poll2% = 14
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|Response1Poll3% =34
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|Response2Poll3% = 43
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|Response3Poll3% = 10
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|Response4Poll3% = 12
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|Response1Poll4% = 44.6
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|Response2Poll4% = 51.6
 +
|Response3Poll4% = 0
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|Response4Poll4% = 3.8
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|Response1Poll5% =
 +
|Response2Poll5% =
 +
|Response3Poll5% =
 +
|Response4Poll5% = 
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|Response1Poll6% =
 +
|Response2Poll6% =
 +
|Response3Poll6% =
 +
|Response4Poll6% = 
 +
|Response1Poll7% =
 +
|Response2Poll7% =
 +
|Response3Poll7% =
 +
|Response4Poll7% = 
 +
|Response1Poll8% =
 +
|Response2Poll8% =
 +
|Response3Poll8% =
 +
|Response4Poll8% = 
 +
}}
  
 
==District history==
 
==District history==

Revision as of 13:16, 2 November 2012

2014



CongressLogo.png

Montana's At-Large Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
June 5, 2012

District historyCandidates

November 6 Election Winner:
Steve Daines Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Denny Rehberg Republican Party
Denny Rehberg.jpg

Montana U.S. House Elections
At-Large District

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Montana.png
The 2012 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Montana will take place on November 6, 2012. Voters will elect one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's at-large congressional district.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 12, 2012
June 5, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Montana has a mixed primary: Democrats hold an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the party's primary, while Republicans hold a closed caucus, restricted to party members.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 6.[1]

See also: Montana elections, 2012

Incumbent: The contenders are battling for an open seat, as incumbent Denny Rehberg (R) is challenging current U.S. Senator Jon Tester (D) for his seat in the Senate.

Montana has a single at-large congressional district, which is made up of the entire state.

Partisan breakdown

The state of Montana's at-large Congressional district.

Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party holds the one Congressional seat from Montana.

Members of the U.S. House from Montana -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2012 After the 2012 Election
     Democratic Party 0 0
     Republican Party 1 1
Total 1 1

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Kim Gillan
Republican Party Steve DainesGreen check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party David Kaiser

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian candidate

Race background

Montana's at-large District has been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[13]

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Montana's at-large congressional district has a PVI of R+7, which is the 145th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 51-49 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-40 percent over John Kerry (D).[14]

Polls

Gillan vs. Daines
Poll Kim Gillan Steve DainesOtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (September 10&11, 2012)
37%40%9%15%+/-3.8656
Mason-Dixon Polling (September 22, 2012)
38%46%2%14%+/-4625
Public Policy Polling (October 10, 2012)
34%43%10%12%+/-3.6737
Pharos Research Group
(October 26-28, 2012)
44.6%51.6%0%3.8%+/-3.5799
AVERAGES 38.4% 45.15% 5.25% 11.2% +/-3.73 704.25
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

District history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Denny Rehberg was re-elected to the United States House for a sixth term. He defeated Dennis McDonald (D), and Mike Fellows (Libertarian).[15]

United States House, Montana General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDenny Rehberg Incumbent 60.4% 217,696
     Democratic Dennis McDonald 33.8% 121,954
     Libertarian Mike Fellows 5.7% 20,691
Total Votes 360,341

See also

References