Difference between revisions of "Montana's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2012"

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{{mtdiscongtoc}}{{tnr}}The [[United States House of Representatives elections, 2012|2012 U.S. House of Representatives]] elections in [[Montana]] will take place on [[United States Congress elections, 2012|November 6, 2012]]. Voters will '''elect one candidate to serve in the [[U.S. House]]''' from [[Montana's at-large congressional district|the state's at-large congressional district]].  
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{{mtdiscongtoc}}{{tnr}}The [[United States House of Representatives elections, 2012|2012 U.S. House of Representatives]] elections in [[Montana]] took place on [[United States Congress elections, 2012|November 6, 2012]]. Voters '''elected one candidate to serve in the [[U.S. House]]''' from [[Montana's at-large congressional district|the state's at-large congressional district]].  
 +
 
 +
[[Steve Daines]] (R) won election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.<ref>[http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/House/2012/ ''Politico'' "2012 Election Map, Montana"]</ref>
  
 
{{Congintro2012
 
{{Congintro2012
Line 5: Line 7:
 
|Primary date=June 5, 2012
 
|Primary date=June 5, 2012
 
|Primary=Montana has a mixed primary: Democrats hold an [[Open primary|open primary]], meaning any registered voter can vote in the party's primary, while Republicans hold a [[Closed primary|closed caucus]], restricted to party members.
 
|Primary=Montana has a mixed primary: Democrats hold an [[Open primary|open primary]], meaning any registered voter can vote in the party's primary, while Republicans hold a [[Closed primary|closed caucus]], restricted to party members.
|Voter registration=Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 6.<ref>[http://sos.mt.gov/elections/Vote/index.asp ''Montana Secretary of State'' "Voter Information," Accessed July 25, 2012]</ref>  
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|Voter registration=Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6.<ref>[http://sos.mt.gov/elections/Vote/index.asp ''Montana Secretary of State'' "Voter Information," Accessed July 25, 2012]</ref>  
 
|State=Montana
 
|State=Montana
|Incumbent=The contenders are battling for an open seat, as incumbent [[Denny Rehberg]] (R) is challenging current U.S. Senator [[Jon Tester]] (D) for his seat in the Senate.}}
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|Incumbent=The contenders were battling for an open seat, as incumbent [[Denny Rehberg]] (R) was challenging current U.S. Senator [[Jon Tester]] (D) for his seat in the Senate.}}
 +
 
 +
[[Montana]] has a single [[Montana's at-large congressional district|at-large congressional district]], which is made up of the entire [[Montana|state]].
  
 
==Partisan breakdown==
 
==Partisan breakdown==
 
[[File:MT1.jpg|thumb|250px|right|The state of [[Montana|Montana's]] at-large Congressional district.]]
 
[[File:MT1.jpg|thumb|250px|right|The state of [[Montana|Montana's]] at-large Congressional district.]]
Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party holds the one Congressional seat from [[Montana]].  
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Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party held the one Congressional seat from [[Montana]].  
 
{{Mtcongpartisan12}}
 
{{Mtcongpartisan12}}
  
 
==Candidates==
 
==Candidates==
 +
{{Candidate list noteB|Date=October 15, 2012}}
 +
 
{{Mtcongcand12}}
 
{{Mtcongcand12}}
 +
 +
==Election Results==
 +
{{Mtdisgenelecbox12}}
 +
 +
==Race background==
 +
Montana's at-large District was included in the [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee#Red to Blue|Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]]'s "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.<ref>[http://www.dccc.org/pages/redtoblue ''DCCC,'' "Red to Blue 2012"]</ref>
 +
 +
====Cook Political Report's PVI====
 +
:''See also: [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index]]''
 +
In 2012, ''Cook Political Report'' released its updated figures on the [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index|Partisan Voter Index]], which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. [[Montana's at-large congressional district]] has a PVI of R+7, which was the 145th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by [[John McCain]] (R), 51-49 percent over [[Barack Obama]] (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-40 percent over [[John Kerry]] (D).<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf ''Cook Political Report'' "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012]</ref>
 +
 +
==Polls==
 +
{{Poll2
 +
|Title=Gillan vs. Daines
 +
|Poll1=[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling (September 10&11, 2012)]
 +
|Poll2=[http://missoulian.com/news/local/gop-s-daines-leads-u-s-house-race-poll-but/article_3a315270-0462-11e2-a80d-0019bb2963f4.html Mason-Dixon Polling (September 22, 2012)]
 +
|Poll3=[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling (October 10, 2012)]
 +
|Poll4=[http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/Montana.pdf Pharos Research Group] <br>(October 26-28, 2012)
 +
|Poll5=
 +
|Poll6=
 +
|Poll7=
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|Poll8=
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|Response1= Kim Gillan
 +
|Response2=Steve Daines
 +
|Response3=Other
 +
|Response4=Undecided
 +
|Numberpolled1=656
 +
|Numberpolled2=625
 +
|Numberpolled3=737
 +
|Numberpolled4=799
 +
|Margin of error1 =3.8
 +
|Margin of error2 =4
 +
|Margin of error3 =3.6
 +
|Margin of error4 =3.5
 +
|Response1Poll1% = 37
 +
|Response2Poll1% = 40
 +
|Response3Poll1% = 9
 +
|Response4Poll1% = 15
 +
|Response1Poll2% = 38
 +
|Response2Poll2% = 46
 +
|Response3Poll2% = 2
 +
|Response4Poll2% = 14
 +
|Response1Poll3% =34
 +
|Response2Poll3% = 43
 +
|Response3Poll3% = 10
 +
|Response4Poll3% = 12
 +
|Response1Poll4% = 44.6
 +
|Response2Poll4% = 51.6
 +
|Response3Poll4% = 0
 +
|Response4Poll4% = 3.8
 +
|Response1Poll5% =
 +
|Response2Poll5% =
 +
|Response3Poll5% =
 +
|Response4Poll5% = 
 +
|Response1Poll6% =
 +
|Response2Poll6% =
 +
|Response3Poll6% =
 +
|Response4Poll6% = 
 +
|Response1Poll7% =
 +
|Response2Poll7% =
 +
|Response3Poll7% =
 +
|Response4Poll7% = 
 +
|Response1Poll8% =
 +
|Response2Poll8% =
 +
|Response3Poll8% =
 +
|Response4Poll8% = 
 +
}}
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 +
==Campaign donors==
 +
===Kim Gillan===
 +
{{Campaign finance reports
 +
|Name = Kim Gillan (2012)
 +
|Political Party = Democratic
 +
|Report 1 = April Quarterly<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/501/12971420501/12971420501.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Kim Gillan April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 1 = March 31, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 1 = 95346.99
 +
|Total Contributions 1 = 66592.12
 +
|Expenditures 1= 50732.17
 +
|Cash on Hand 1 = 111206.94
 +
|Report 2 = Pre-Primary<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/665/12971420665/12971420665.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Kim Gillan Pre-Primary," Accessed November 2, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 2 = May 24, 2012
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|Beginning Balance 2 = 111206.94
 +
|Total Contributions 2 = 36317.76
 +
|Expenditures 2= 88319.32
 +
|Cash on Hand 2 = 59205.38
 +
|Report 3 = July Quarterly<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/620/12971421620/12971421620.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Kim Gillan July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 3 = June 30, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 3 = 59205.38
 +
|Total Contributions 3 = 100230.21
 +
|Expenditures 3 = 71529.93
 +
|Cash on Hand 3 = 87905.66
 +
|Report 4 = October Quarterly<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/647/12972569647/12972569647.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Kim Gillan October Quarterly," Accessed November 2, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 4 = October 15, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 4 = 87905.66
 +
|Total Contributions 4 = 377276.33
 +
|Expenditures 4= 313922.45
 +
|Cash on Hand 4 = 151259.54
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|Report 5 = Pre-General<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/648/12940438648/12940438648.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Kim Gillan Pre-General," Accessed November 2, 2012]</ref>
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|Date 5 = October 25, 2012
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|Beginning Balance 5 = 151259.54
 +
|Total Contributions 5 = 63638.97
 +
|Expenditures 5= 61302.26
 +
|Cash on Hand 5 = 153596.25
 +
}}
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===Steve Daines===
 +
{{Campaign finance reports
 +
|Name = Steve Daines (2012)
 +
|Political Party = Republican
 +
|Report 1 = April Quarterly<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/198/12951420198/12951420198.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Steve Daines April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 1 = March 31, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 1 = 630561.21
 +
|Total Contributions 1 = 170950.63
 +
|Expenditures 1= 75092.52
 +
|Cash on Hand 1 = 726419.32
 +
|Report 2 = Pre-Primary<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/827/12951893827/12951893827.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Steve Daines Pre-Primary," Accessed November 2, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 2 = May 24, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 2 = 726419.32
 +
|Total Contributions 2 = 71508.59
 +
|Expenditures 2= 54681.13
 +
|Cash on Hand 2 = 743246.78
 +
|Report 3 = July Quarterly<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/198/12951420198/12951420198.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Steve Daines July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 3 = June 30, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 3 = 743246.78
 +
|Total Contributions 3 = 173255.29
 +
|Expenditures 3= 63277.73
 +
|Cash on Hand 3 = 853224.34
 +
|Report 4 = October Quarterly<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/700/12972603700/12972603700.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Steve Daines October Quarterly," Accessed November 2, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 4 = October 15, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 4 = 853224.34
 +
|Total Contributions 4 = 488957.61
 +
|Expenditures 4= 985271.46
 +
|Cash on Hand 4 = 356910.49
 +
|Report 5 = Pre-General<ref>[http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/867/12961105867/12961105867.pdf#navpanes=0 ''Federal Election Commission'' "Steve Daines Pre-General," Accessed November 2, 2012]</ref>
 +
|Date 5 = October 25, 2012
 +
|Beginning Balance 5 = 356910.49
 +
|Total Contributions 5 = 81267.50
 +
|Expenditures 5= 317019.35
 +
|Cash on Hand 5 = 121158.64
 +
}}
  
 
==District history==
 
==District history==

Revision as of 16:47, 10 December 2012

2014



CongressLogo.png

Montana's At-Large Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
June 5, 2012

District historyCandidates

November 6 Election Winner:
Steve Daines Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Denny Rehberg Republican Party
Denny Rehberg.jpg

Montana U.S. House Elections
At-Large District

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Montana.png
The 2012 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Montana took place on November 6, 2012. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's at-large congressional district.

Steve Daines (R) won election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 12, 2012
June 5, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Montana has a mixed primary: Democrats hold an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the party's primary, while Republicans hold a closed caucus, restricted to party members.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6.[2]

See also: Montana elections, 2012

Incumbent: The contenders were battling for an open seat, as incumbent Denny Rehberg (R) was challenging current U.S. Senator Jon Tester (D) for his seat in the Senate.

Montana has a single at-large congressional district, which is made up of the entire state.

Partisan breakdown

The state of Montana's at-large Congressional district.

Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party held the one Congressional seat from Montana.

Members of the U.S. House from Montana -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2012 After the 2012 Election
     Democratic Party 0 0
     Republican Party 1 1
Total 1 1

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Kim Gillan
Republican Party Steve DainesGreen check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party David Kaiser

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian candidate

Election Results

U.S. House, Montana, At-Large District General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Kim Gillan 42.7% 204,939
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Daines 53.3% 255,468
     Libertarian David Kaiser 4% 19,333
Total Votes 479,740
Source: Montana Secretary of State "2012 Election Center"

Race background

Montana's at-large District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[14]

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Montana's at-large congressional district has a PVI of R+7, which was the 145th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 51-49 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-40 percent over John Kerry (D).[15]

Polls

Gillan vs. Daines
Poll Kim Gillan Steve DainesOtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (September 10&11, 2012)
37%40%9%15%+/-3.8656
Mason-Dixon Polling (September 22, 2012)
38%46%2%14%+/-4625
Public Policy Polling (October 10, 2012)
34%43%10%12%+/-3.6737
Pharos Research Group
(October 26-28, 2012)
44.6%51.6%0%3.8%+/-3.5799
AVERAGES 38.4% 45.15% 5.25% 11.2% +/-3.73 704.25
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Campaign donors

Kim Gillan

Kim Gillan (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[16]March 31, 2012$95,346.99$66,592.12$(50,732.17)$111,206.94
Pre-Primary[17]May 24, 2012$111,206.94$36,317.76$(88,319.32)$59,205.38
July Quarterly[18]June 30, 2012$59,205.38$100,230.21$(71,529.93)$87,905.66
October Quarterly[19]October 15, 2012$87,905.66$377,276.33$(313,922.45)$151,259.54
Pre-General[20]October 25, 2012$151,259.54$63,638.97$(61,302.26)$153,596.25
Running totals
$644,055.39$(585,806.13)

Steve Daines

Steve Daines (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[21]March 31, 2012$630,561.21$170,950.63$(75,092.52)$726,419.32
Pre-Primary[22]May 24, 2012$726,419.32$71,508.59$(54,681.13)$743,246.78
July Quarterly[23]June 30, 2012$743,246.78$173,255.29$(63,277.73)$853,224.34
October Quarterly[24]October 15, 2012$853,224.34$488,957.61$(985,271.46)$356,910.49
Pre-General[25]October 25, 2012$356,910.49$81,267.50$(317,019.35)$121,158.64
Running totals
$985,939.62$(1,495,342.19)

District history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Denny Rehberg was re-elected to the United States House for a sixth term. He defeated Dennis McDonald (D), and Mike Fellows (Libertarian).[26]

United States House, Montana General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDenny Rehberg Incumbent 60.4% 217,696
     Democratic Dennis McDonald 33.8% 121,954
     Libertarian Mike Fellows 5.7% 20,691
Total Votes 360,341

See also

References

  1. Politico "2012 Election Map, Montana"
  2. Montana Secretary of State "Voter Information," Accessed July 25, 2012
  3. KAJ 18 "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House," June 22, 2011
  4. Billings Gazette "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race," November 3, 2011
  5. KPAX 8 "Strohmaier announces run for Congress," June 18, 2011
  6. KRTV 3 "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House," August 10, 2011
  7. KRTV 3 "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid," February 1, 2011
  8. Billings Gazette "Billings real estate agent joins U.S. House race" March 13, 2012
  9. Great Falls Tribune "Democrats battling GOP dominance for Montana's House seat" March 13, 2012
  10. KXLF "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race," February 4, 2011
  11. Missoulian "Eric Brosten biography" March 13, 2012
  12. The Republic "Ex-Marine, Colorado college student files in Montana to run for Congress" March 13, 2012
  13. Missoulian "Democrat Rankin announces bid for U.S. House nomination" March 13, 2012
  14. DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
  15. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  16. Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
  17. Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan Pre-Primary," Accessed November 2, 2012
  18. Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
  19. Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan October Quarterly," Accessed November 2, 2012
  20. Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan Pre-General," Accessed November 2, 2012
  21. Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
  22. Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines Pre-Primary," Accessed November 2, 2012
  23. Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
  24. Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines October Quarterly," Accessed November 2, 2012
  25. Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines Pre-General," Accessed November 2, 2012
  26. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"