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Montana gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2012
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The Montana gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 6, 2012, following a primary on June 5, 2012.
Montana's current governor, Brian Schweitzer, is prevented by term limits from seeking another term in office. Schweitzer's lieutenant governor, John Bohlinger, has announced he will retire at the end of his current term, leaving both seats open.
In Montana, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected on a single ticket. This year, 11 sets of candidates have entered the race: two Democrats, seven Republicans, one Libertarian and one set of independent candidates. The field will be whittled down to four after the two major parties select their candidates in the June 5th primary.
Despite early speculation, there were a few surprises when the dust had settled after the candidate filing period came to an end on March 12, 2012.
- The Democratic field was initially expected to be a three-person showdown, but state Senator Larry Jent dropped out of the race on March 8, 2012 saying he hadn't raised enough money to compete with Bullock, [1] who, according to early polling, was a heavy favorite with 70% of the primary vote to Jent's 6% (24% of voters were undecided).[2]
- On the Republican side, gubernatorial hopeful Bob Fanning announced in early January his running mate would be Chuck Baldwin.[3] But Baldwin left the campaign in mid-February due to a lack of both money and a "quality organization"[4] and Fanning picked up a new running mate, former state Rep. Joel Boniek.
Key dates
- Administrative deadlines are at close of business (5:00) unless otherwise noted.
| Deadline | Event |
|---|---|
| Jan. 12 - Mar. 12 | Candidate filing period |
| May 7 | Voter registration for primary election |
| June 4, Noon | Requests received for absentee ballot for primary election |
| June 5 | Primary election |
| Aug. 13 | Deadline for candidates to withdrawal general election candidacy |
| Aug. 23 | Secretary of State certifies candidates on ballot |
| Nov. 5 | Requests received for absentee ballot for general election |
| Nov. 6 | General election |
| Dec. 3 | Official results certified |
Race tracking
- See also: Ballotpedia Election Racetracking
| 2011 Race Rankings - Montana Governor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race Tracker | Race Rating | |||
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Toss-up | |||
| Governing Politics[6] | Lean Republican | |||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Leans Republican | |||
| Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[8] | No prediction yet | |||
| The Rothenberg Political Report[9] | Pure Toss-up | |||
| Overall Call | ||||
Democratic primary candidates
Republican primary candidates
- Bob Fanning & Joel Boniek
- Rick Hill & Jon Sonju
- Neil Livingstone & Ryan Zinke
- Jim Lynch & Al Olszewski
- Ken Miller & Bill Gallagher
- Jim O'Hara & Scott Swingley
- Corey Stapleton & Bob Keenan
Libertarian candidates
Independent candidates
Former candidates
- Larry Jent, a state Senator
- Drew Turiano, a real estate investor and former science fiction author, initially indicated his intention to run for Governor of Montana, but in January 2012 announced he would, instead, seek the Republican nomination for Montana Secretary of State in the 2012 election.[10]
- David Wanzenried, a state Senator, was considering a run for the Democratic nomination
- Jeff Essmann, a state Senator, declared his intent to run, but withdrew from the race before the candidate filing deadline, citing a lack of funds and a desire for a united Republican Party[11]
- Chuck Baldwin appeared to be the lieutenant governor candidate on Bob Fanning's ticket but Fanning filed with Joel Boniek instead.
- Ronald J. Lassle
Steve Bullock as Democratic candidate
| Steve Bullock vs. Jeff Essmann | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (November 28-30, 2011) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Steve Bullock | 42% | 42% | ||||||||||||
| Jeff Essmann | 30% | 30% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 28% | 28% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-2.4 | 2.4% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
| Steve Bullock vs. Rick Hill | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (November 28-30, 2011) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Steve Bullock | 38% | 38% | ||||||||||||
| Rick Hill | 39% | 39% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 23% | 23% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-2.4 | 2.4% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
| Steve Bullock vs. Neil Livingstone | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (November 28-30, 2011) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Steve Bullock | 41% | 41% | ||||||||||||
| Neil Livingstone | 29% | 29% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 30% | 30% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-2.4 | 2.4% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
| Steve Bullock vs. Ken Miller | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (November 28-30, 2011) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Steve Bullock | 40% | 40% | ||||||||||||
| Ken Miller | 31% | 31% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 29% | 29% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-2.4 | 2.4% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
Larry Jent as Democratic candidate
| Larry Jent vs. Jeff Essmann | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (November 28-30, 2011) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Larry Jent | 26% | 26% | ||||||||||||
| Jeff Essmann | 30% | 30% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 44% | 44% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-2.4 | 2.4% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
| Larry Jent vs. Rick Hill | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (November 28-30, 2011) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Larry Jent | 26% | 26% | ||||||||||||
| Rick Hill | 39% | 39% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 35% | 35% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-2.4 | 2.4% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
| Larry Jent vs. Neil Livingstone | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (November 28-30, 2011) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Larry Jent | 26% | 26% | ||||||||||||
| Neil Livingstone | 30% | 30% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 44% | 44% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-2.4 | 2.4% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
| Larry Jent vs. Ken Miller | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (November 28-30, 2011) | Average | ||||||||||||
| Larry Jent | 25% | 25% | ||||||||||||
| Ken Miller | 33% | 33% | ||||||||||||
| Undecided | 42% | 42% | ||||||||||||
| Number polled | 1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-2.4 | 2.4% | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
The candidates for governor have met several times, though not always as a full field.
9 candidates; both parties
On February 27, the Cascade County Farm Bureau sponsored a forum for 8 Republicans and 1 Democrats, Larry Jent. The candidates addressed a range of issues, including the threat of brucellosis to the state's cattle population, combination schools in rural communities, and the Keystone XL pipeline. Each candidate was also given the opportunity to make their case to the voters.[12]
GOP candidates
Five of the seven GOP gubernatorial candidates met in Whitefish on May 2. Key issues in the debate included lowering property taxes, utilizing more of the state's natural resources, making the state's legal and regulatory climate less adversarial and finding new funding sources for public education.[13][14]
At the beginning of the debate the candidates were asked, in turn, to highlight the strengths of their campaign and refute issues that have been brought to light throughout the campaign.
- Jim Lynch touted his record of saving the state $9.7 million, as Director of the Montana Department of Transportation, by reducing the number of employees and overtime hours.[13] He argued it is attitude - not taxes and regulations - that is impeding growth, and explained he would jump start the state's economy by using similar existing savings in state government.[14]
- Neil Livingstone, who has been accused of being more federally-focused, translated his management of "nine-figure companies around the world" into experience, objectivity and vision for Montana.[13] He encouraged drilling, mining and logging as solutions to "turn Montana's economy around," and vowed to create a "legal and regulatory environment that allows Montana to prosper again."[14]
- Ken Miller pledged to end both the business employment tax and corporate income tax.[13] He proposed a "loser-pay" law intended to limit the number of lawsuits brought in the state and expedite the issuance of environmental permits and said he would "push for an amendment to the portion of Montana's constitution that states everyone is entitled to a clean and healthy environment, because it invites broad judicial interpretation."[14]
- Corey Stapleton suggested the problem of delayed development of Montana's oil and coal production is rooted in the gubernatorial appointments made to board and commissions charged with oversight.[14] He suggested Montana should look to revenue from natural resource development to create $220 million of permanent property tax relief and fund public education.[13]
- Like Stapleton, Rick Hill advocated for a reduction in local property taxes, pointing to Wyoming's success in funding public education with coal tax revenues.[13] He also criticized "trial lawyers and environmentalists" who he feels are behind a statewide regulatory structure that is stymieing Montana's economic growth.[14]
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Montana State Executive Officials
- Election aftermath: Two state executive races in Montana still too close to call
- Election preview: No challengers for Montana's incumbent state executive officials
- Election preview: No primary challengers for Montana's incumbent state executives
See also
Articles
External links
Campaign sites
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Democrats: |
Republicans: |
Libertarian:
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References
State of Montana Helena (capital) | |
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