New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District elections, 2012

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New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
September 11, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Frank Guinta Republican Party
Frank Guinta.jpg

New Hampshire U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of New Hampshire.png
The New Hampshire's 1st congressional district held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Challenger Carol Shea-Porter defeated incumbent Frank Guinta.[1]
This is the 1st congressional district prior to the 2011 redistricting.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
June 15, 2012
September 11, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: New Hampshire has a mostly closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members. In New Hampshire, however, Independent voters may choose which party's primary to vote in.

Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by September 4, or at the polls on election day. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 27, or at the polls on election day.[2]

See also: New Hampshire elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Frank Guinta (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010.

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. New Hampshire's 1st congressional district is located in the eastern portion of the state.[3]

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Frank Guinta
Libertarian Party Brendan Kelly


September 11, 2012, primary results
Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Note: Joanne Dowdell and Diane Soracco initially filed but no longer appear on the official candidate list.[4]
Note: Andrew Hosmer expressed an interest in running but opted to run for the New Hampshire state Senate

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian candidate


According to the website Daily Kos, this race was one of nine top-ballot 2012 races that contained Libertarian candidates who received more total votes than was the difference between the Democratic winner and the GOP runner-up. In this case, Brendan Kelly took in over 2,000 more votes than the number that separated Shea-Porter and Guinta.[5]

Election Results

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 1 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Frank Guinta Incumbent 46% 158,659
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngCarol Shea-Porter 49.8% 171,650
     Libertarian Brandan Kelly 4.2% 14,521
Total Votes 344,830
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Race background

New Hampshire's 1st was considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Frank Guinta was defeated by Carol Shea-Porter (D), the former Democratic representative of the district whom he defeated in 2010. Guinta was thought to have the advantage in the race.[6]

Incumbent Frank Guinta was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.[7]

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for New Hampshire's 1st. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." [8]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in New Hampshire

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. New Hampshire's 1st District became less Republican because of redistricting.[10]

  • 2012: 50D / 50R
  • 2010: 49D / 51R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. New Hampshire's 1st congressional district has a PVI of Even, which is one of the nine even districts in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 53-47 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over John Kerry (D).[11]

District history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Frank Guinta was elected to the United States House. He defeated incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Philip Hodson (Libertarian).[12]

United States House, New Hampshire General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngFrank C. Guinta 54% 121,655
     Democratic Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent 42.4% 95,503
     Libertarian Philip Hodson 3.5% 7,966
Total Votes 225,124

Polls

Frank Guinta vs. Carol Shea-Porter
Poll Guinta Shea-PorterOtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
(October 25-26, 2012)
48%47%0%5%+/-3.8654
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign donors

The race attracted $1.9 million in outside spending after Labor Day. $917,394 was spent helping Democrat Carol Shea-Porter while $1,028,851 was spent to aid Republican Frank Guinta.[13]

Carol Shea-Porter

Carol Shea-Porter (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[14]March 31, 2012$142,496.32$101,328.11$(60,665.13)$183,159.30
July Quarterly[15]June 30, 2012$183,159.30$200,852.64$(71,553.82)$312,458.12
Pre-Primary[16]August 30$312,458.12$195,020.45$(84,769.40)$422,709.17
Running totals
$497,201.2$(216,988.35)

Frank Guinta

Frank Guinta (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[17]March 31, 2012$565,273.22$180,332.96$(70,858.71)$674,747.47
July Quarterly[18]June 30, 2012$674,747.47$256,021.29$(84,577.83)$846,190.93
Pre-primary[19]August 30$846,190.93$137,529.99$(172,892.17)$810,828.75
Running totals
$573,884.24$(328,328.71)

See also

References

  1. Politico "2012 House Race Results"
  2. New Hampshire Secretary of State "Voter Registration Deadlines," Accessed July 26, 2012
  3. New Hampshire Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012
  4. New Hampshire 2012 candidates
  5. Daily Kos, "Libertarians provided the margin for Democrats and at least nine elections," November 15, 2012
  6. New York Times "House Ratings," accessed October 23, 2012
  7. NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
  8. Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  9. The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012
  10. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in New Hampshire," September 2012
  11. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  12. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
  13. The New York Times, "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012
  14. Federal Election Commission "Carol Shea-Porter April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
  15. Federal Election Commission "Carol Shea-Porter July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
  16. Federal Election Commission "Carol Shea-Porter Pre-Primary," Accessed October 8, 2012
  17. Federal Election Commission "Frank Guinta April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
  18. Federal Election Commission "Frank Guinta July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
  19. Federal Election Commission "Frank Guinta Pre-primary," Accessed October 8, 2012