Difference between revisions of "New York's 19th Congressional District elections, 2012"

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
m (Text replace - "Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district" to "Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District")
m (Text replace - "" Accessed" to "" accessed")
(37 intermediate revisions by 9 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
{{nydis19congtoc}}{{tnr}}The '''[[New York's 19th congressional district|19th congressional district of New York]]''' held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
+
{{nydis19congtoc}}{{tnr}}The '''[[New York's 19th Congressional District|19th Congressional District of New York]]''' held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
[[Chris Gibson]] was re-elected on November 6, 2012.<ref>[http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Elections/New York ''ABC News'' "2012 General Election Results"]</ref>
+
[[Chris Gibson]] was re-elected on November 6, 2012.<ref>[http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Elections/New York ''ABC News'', "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012]</ref>
 
{{Congintro2012
 
{{Congintro2012
 
|Filing deadline=April 16, 2012
 
|Filing deadline=April 16, 2012
 
|Primary date=June 26, 2012
 
|Primary date=June 26, 2012
 
|Primary=New York has a [[Closed primary|closed primary]] system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.
 
|Primary=New York has a [[Closed primary|closed primary]] system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.
|Voter registration=Voters had to register to [[Voting in the 2012 primary elections|vote in the primary]] by June 1. For the [[Voting in the 2012 general elections|general election]], the voter registration deadline was October 12, or October 26 in person.<ref>[http://www.elections.ny.gov/VotingDeadlines.html ''New York State Board of Elections'' "Voting Deadline Page," Accessed June 30, 2012]</ref>
+
|Voter registration=Voters had to register to [[Voting in the 2012 primary elections|vote in the primary]] by June 1, 2012. For the [[Voting in the 2012 general elections|general election]], the voter registration deadline was October 12, 2012, or October 26, 2012 in person.<ref>[http://www.elections.ny.gov/VotingDeadlines.html ''New York State Board of Elections'', "Voting Deadline Page," accessed June 30, 2012]</ref>
 
|State=New York
 
|State=New York
|Incumbent=Heading into the election the incumbent is [[Nan Hayworth]] (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010. Due to [[Redistricting in New York|redistricting]], Hayworth is running in the redrawn [[New York's 18th congressional district elections, 2012|18th district]], and [[New York's 20th congressional district elections, 2012|20th district]] incumbent [[Chris Gibson]] is running in the new 19th. }}
+
|Incumbent=Heading into the election was incumbent [[Nan Hayworth]] (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010. Due to [[Redistricting in New York|redistricting]], Hayworth ran in the redrawn [[New York's 18th Congressional District elections, 2012|18th District]], and [[New York's 20th Congressional District elections, 2012|20th District]] incumbent [[Chris Gibson]] ran in the new 19th. }}
  
This will be the first election using [[Congressional redistricting maps implemented after the 2010 Census|new district maps based on 2010 Census data]]. [[New York's 19th congressional district]] is located in the eastern portion of the [[New York|state]] and includes Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware, Otsego, Schoharie, Greene, and Columbia counties and parts of Montgomery, Rensselaer, and Dutchess counties.<ref>[http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/File:New_York_Congress_Map_2012.jpg ''New York Redistricting Map'' "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012]</ref>
+
This was the first election using [[Congressional redistricting maps implemented after the 2010 Census|new district maps based on 2010 Census data]]. [[New York's 19th Congressional District]] is located in the eastern portion of the [[New York|state]] and includes Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware, Otsego, Schoharie, Greene, and Columbia counties and parts of Montgomery, Rensselaer, and Dutchess counties.<ref>[http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/File:New_York_Congress_Map_2012.jpg ''New York Redistricting Map'', "Map" accessed September 25, 2012]</ref>
  
 
==Fusion voting==
 
==Fusion voting==
Line 26: Line 26:
 
===General election===
 
===General election===
 
====Competitiveness====
 
====Competitiveness====
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at ''The New York University School of Law'' published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by [http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings The Cook Political Report], including the race for New York's 19th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." <ref name=brennnan>[http://www.brennancenter.org/page/-/publications/Election_Spending_2012_25_Toss_Up_House_Races.pdf ''Brennan Center for Justice,'' "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012]</ref>
+
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at ''The New York University School of Law'' published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by [http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings The Cook Political Report], including the race for New York's 19th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."<ref name=brennnan>[http://www.brennancenter.org/page/-/publications/Election_Spending_2012_25_Toss_Up_House_Races.pdf ''Brennan Center for Justice,'' "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012]</ref>
  
 
{{Collapsible list
 
{{Collapsible list
 
   |framestyle = border:none; padding:0; text-align:left;
 
   |framestyle = border:none; padding:0; text-align:left;
   |title=<u>List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings ''The Cook Political Report'', "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012]</ref></u>
+
   |title=<u>List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings ''The Cook Political Report'', "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012]</ref></u>
 
   |
 
   |
 
Democratic Toss Ups:<br>
 
Democratic Toss Ups:<br>
Line 36: Line 36:
 
#[[Illinois' 12th Congressional District elections, 2012|Illinois-12]]
 
#[[Illinois' 12th Congressional District elections, 2012|Illinois-12]]
 
#[[Kentucky's 6th Congressional District elections, 2012|Kentucky-6]]
 
#[[Kentucky's 6th Congressional District elections, 2012|Kentucky-6]]
#[[Nevada's 4th congressional district elections, 2012|Nevada-4]]
+
#[[Nevada's 4th Congressional District elections, 2012|Nevada-4]]
#[[New York's 27th congressional district elections, 2012|New York-27]]
+
#[[New York's 27th Congressional District elections, 2012|New York-27]]
#[[North Carolina's 7th congressional district elections, 2012|North Carolina-7]]
+
#[[North Carolina's 7th Congressional District elections, 2012|North Carolina-7]]
 
#[[Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District elections, 2012|Pennsylvania-12]]
 
#[[Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District elections, 2012|Pennsylvania-12]]
 
#[[Utah's 4th Congressional District elections, 2012|Utah-4]]<br>
 
#[[Utah's 4th Congressional District elections, 2012|Utah-4]]<br>
Line 54: Line 54:
 
#[[Illinois' 17th Congressional District elections, 2012|California-17]]
 
#[[Illinois' 17th Congressional District elections, 2012|California-17]]
 
#[[Michigan's 1st Congressional District elections, 2012|Michigan-1]]
 
#[[Michigan's 1st Congressional District elections, 2012|Michigan-1]]
#[[Minnesota's 8th congressional district elections, 2012|Minnesota-8]]
+
#[[Minnesota's 8th Congressional District elections, 2012|Minnesota-8]]
#[[Nevada's 3rd congressional district elections, 2012|Nevada-3]]
+
#[[Nevada's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2012|Nevada-3]]
#[[New Hampshire's 1st congressional district elections, 2012|New Hampshire-1]]
+
#[[New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District elections, 2012|New Hampshire-1]]
#[[New York's 18th congressional district elections, 2012|New York-18]]
+
#[[New York's 18th Congressional District elections, 2012|New York-18]]
#[[New York's 19th congressional district elections, 2012|New York-19]]
+
#[[New York's 19th Congressional District elections, 2012|New York-19]]
 
#[[Ohio's 16th Congressional District elections, 2012|Ohio-16]]
 
#[[Ohio's 16th Congressional District elections, 2012|Ohio-16]]
 
#[[Texas' 23rd Congressional District elections, 2012|Texas-23]]
 
#[[Texas' 23rd Congressional District elections, 2012|Texas-23]]
 
|
 
|
 
|}}
 
|}}
New York's 19th is considered to be Leaning Republican according to the ''New York Times'' race ratings.  Republican incumbent [[Chris Gibson]] is challenged by [[Julian Schreibman]] (D).  Gibson's district has gone from a Republican leaning district to a swing district, which Democrats believe they have a chance of securing.<ref>[http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house ''New York Times'' "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 10, 2012]</ref>
+
New York's 19th wass considered to be Leaning Republican according to the ''New York Times'' race ratings.  Republican incumbent [[Chris Gibson]] was challenged by [[Julian Schreibman]] (D).  Gibson's district went from a Republican leaning district to a swing district, which Democrats believed they have a chance of securing.<ref>[http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house ''New York Times'', "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012]</ref>
[[File:New York's 19th Congressional District Before and After the 2010 Census Redistricting.jpg|link=http://nycd2011.ballotpedia.censusviewer.com/client|thumb|450px|[http://nycd2011.ballotpedia.censusviewer.com/client Map of the 19th congressional district of New York] before and after the [[Redistricting in New York|2010 redistricting]]. Click on the link for an interactive map of the congressional districts in New York. For an interactive map of the districts prior to the 2010 Census, click [http://nycd2001.ballotpedia.censusviewer.com/client here].]]
+
[[File:New York's 19th Congressional District Before and After the 2010 Census Redistricting.jpg|link=http://nycd2011.ballotpedia.censusviewer.com/client|thumb|450px|[http://nycd2011.ballotpedia.censusviewer.com/client Map of the 19th Congressional District of New York] before and after the [[Redistricting in New York|2010 redistricting]]. Click on the link for an interactive map of the congressional districts in New York. For an interactive map of the districts prior to the 2010 Census, click [http://nycd2001.ballotpedia.censusviewer.com/client here].]]
  
New York's 19th District has been included in the [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee#Red to Blue|Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]]'s "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.<ref>[http://www.dccc.org/pages/redtoblue ''DCCC,'' "Red to Blue 2012"]</ref>
+
New York's 19th District had been included in the [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee#Red to Blue|Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]]'s "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization had specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.<ref>[http://www.dccc.org/pages/redtoblue ''DCCC,'' "Red to Blue 2012"]</ref>
  
Incumbent [[Chris Gibson]] is a part of the [[National Republican Congressional Committee#Patriot Program|National Republican Congressional Committee]]'s Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.<ref>[http://www.electgoppatriots.org/candidates/ ''NRCC'' "Patriot Program 2012"]</ref>
+
Incumbent [[Chris Gibson]] was a part of the [[National Republican Congressional Committee#Patriot Program|National Republican Congressional Committee]]'s Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.<ref>[http://www.electgoppatriots.org/candidates/ ''NRCC'' "Patriot Program 2012"]</ref>
  
 
===Democratic primary===
 
===Democratic primary===
Two relatively unknown candidates sought the Democratic nod to face Republican incumbent [[Chris Gibson]] in the general election. Dutchess County legislator [[Joel Tyner]] faced former federal prosecutor [[Julian Schreibman]] in the June 26 Democratic primary.<ref name="rrr">[http://www.riverreporteronline.com/news/14/2012/06/20/tyner-and-schreibman-vie-hinchey%E2%80%99s-seat-both-claim-they-follow-his-progressive-le ''River Reporter Online'' "Tyner and Schreibman vie for Hinchey’s seat; both claim they follow his progressive lead," June 20, 2012]</ref>
+
Two relatively unknown candidates sought the Democratic nod to face Republican incumbent [[Chris Gibson]] in the general election. Dutchess County legislator [[Joel Tyner]] faced former federal prosecutor [[Julian Schreibman]] in the June 26, 2012 Democratic primary.<ref name="rrr">[http://www.riverreporteronline.com/news/14/2012/06/20/tyner-and-schreibman-vie-hinchey%E2%80%99s-seat-both-claim-they-follow-his-progressive-le ''River Reporter Online'', "Tyner and Schreibman vie for Hinchey’s seat; both claim they follow his progressive lead," June 20, 2012]</ref>
  
The two agreed on many issues. Tyner made opposition to hydrofracking -- a controversial method of oil and natural gas recovery -- a main theme of his campaign, but Schreibman also said he opposes the technique "100%."<ref name="ro">[http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120618/NEWS/120619781/-1/SITEMAP ''Record Online'' "Schreibman, Tyner face off in debate for 19th Congressional District," June 18, 2012]</ref> Both candidates also have said they will not be yes-men for President Barack Obama.<ref name="ro"/> And each had the similar goal of protecting Social Security.<ref name="rrr"/> On health care, there was some differentiation, as Tyner called for a single-payer system, while Schreibman supported "universal access to health care" and favored the health care legislation already passed and known as "Obamacare."<ref name="wp"/>
+
The two agreed on many issues. Tyner made opposition to hydrofracking -- a controversial method of oil and natural gas recovery -- a main theme of his campaign, but Schreibman also said he opposes the technique "100%."<ref name="ro">[http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120618/NEWS/120619781/-1/SITEMAP ''Record Online'', "Schreibman, Tyner face off in debate for 19th Congressional District," June 18, 2012]</ref> Both candidates also said they would not be yes-men for President Barack Obama.<ref name="ro"/> And each had the similar goal of protecting Social Security.<ref name="rrr"/> On health care, there was some differentiation, as Tyner called for a single-payer system, while Schreibman supported "universal access to health care" and favored the health care legislation already passed and known as "Obamacare."<ref name="wp"/>
  
Schreibman was endorsed by retiring Representative [[Maurice Hinchey]],<ref name="rrr"/> and argued that he was the more electable candidate<ref name="wp">[http://www.watershedpost.com/2012/congressional-candidates-schreibman-and-tyner-face-debate ''Watershed Post'' "Congressional candidates Schreibman and Tyner face off in debate," June 19, 2012]</ref> in the Republican-leaning district.<ref>[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ ''Sabato Crystal Ball'' "2012 House Ratings," June 13, 2012]</ref> He also said he has a greater fundraising capability, which would help battle "an avalanche of unregulated corporate money" in the general election.<ref name="jj">[http://www.dailyfreeman.com/articles/2012/06/19/news/doc4fdfbc55dff74501111800.txt ''Hudson Valley Daily Freeman'' "Democratic congressional candidates Julian Schreibman, Joel Tyner square off in debate (videos)," June 19, 2012]</ref>
+
Schreibman was endorsed by retiring Representative [[Maurice Hinchey]],<ref name="rrr"/> and argued that he was the more electable candidate<ref name="wp">[http://www.watershedpost.com/2012/congressional-candidates-schreibman-and-tyner-face-debate ''Watershed Post'', "Congressional candidates Schreibman and Tyner face off in debate," June 19, 2012]</ref> in the Republican-leaning district.<ref>[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ ''Sabato Crystal Ball'', "2012 House Ratings," June 13, 2012]</ref> He also said he had a greater fundraising capability, which would help battle "an avalanche of unregulated corporate money" in the general election.<ref name="jj">[http://www.dailyfreeman.com/articles/2012/06/19/news/doc4fdfbc55dff74501111800.txt ''Hudson Valley Daily Freeman'', "Democratic congressional candidates Julian Schreibman, Joel Tyner square off in debate (videos)," June 19, 2012]</ref>
  
 
But Tyner was quick to criticize the sources of Schreibman's campaign contributions as coming from "investors."<ref name="ro"/> He also highlighted his own history of being elected to his county seat despite being in a heavily Republican area, while Schreibman's stint as county Democratic chairman saw party losses in the state Legislature.<ref name="jj"/>
 
But Tyner was quick to criticize the sources of Schreibman's campaign contributions as coming from "investors."<ref name="ro"/> He also highlighted his own history of being elected to his county seat despite being in a heavily Republican area, while Schreibman's stint as county Democratic chairman saw party losses in the state Legislature.<ref name="jj"/>
Line 82: Line 82:
 
Schreibman received $535,000 in campaign donations in the third quarter, while incumbent Gibson raised $410,000.<Ref>[http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/159067/schreibman-raises-more-money-than-gibson/ ''Capitol Confidential,'' "Schreibman raises more money than Gibson," October 5, 2012]</ref>
 
Schreibman received $535,000 in campaign donations in the third quarter, while incumbent Gibson raised $410,000.<Ref>[http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/159067/schreibman-raises-more-money-than-gibson/ ''Capitol Confidential,'' "Schreibman raises more money than Gibson," October 5, 2012]</ref>
  
The race has attracted $3.9 million in outside spending since Labor Day. $1,781,844 has been spent helping Democrat [[Julian Schreibman]] while $2,069,094 was spent to aid Republican [[Chris Gibson]].<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/25/us/politics/outside-spending-in-key-house-races.html ''The New York Times,'' "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012]</ref>
+
The race attracted $3.9 million in outside spending since Labor Day. A total of $1,781,844 was spent helping Democrat [[Julian Schreibman]] while $2,069,094 was spent to aid Republican [[Chris Gibson]].<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/25/us/politics/outside-spending-in-key-house-races.html ''The New York Times'', "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012]</ref>
 
==Polls==
 
==Polls==
 
{{Poll
 
{{Poll
Line 105: Line 105:
 
Following the results of the 2010 Census, New York lost two congressional seats, bringing its total number of representatives down from 29 to 27. According to a report in the ''Washington Post'' political blog "The Fix," New York was one of the top 10 redistricting battles in the nation.<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/redistricting-battles-hit-a-fever-pitch/2011/06/03/AGN7h7HH_blog.html ''Washington Post, "The Fix,"'' "Redistricting battles hit a fever pitch," June 3, 2011]</ref>
 
Following the results of the 2010 Census, New York lost two congressional seats, bringing its total number of representatives down from 29 to 27. According to a report in the ''Washington Post'' political blog "The Fix," New York was one of the top 10 redistricting battles in the nation.<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/redistricting-battles-hit-a-fever-pitch/2011/06/03/AGN7h7HH_blog.html ''Washington Post, "The Fix,"'' "Redistricting battles hit a fever pitch," June 3, 2011]</ref>
  
The [[New York's 19th congressional district|19th district]] was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.<ref>[http://www.censusviewer.com/district-maps/2012/08/new-york-congressional-districts-comparison-2001-2011/ ''Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer'' "New York's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"]</ref><ref>[http://www.votermapping.com ''Labels & Lists'' "VoterMapping software voter counts"]</ref>
+
The [[New York's 19th Congressional District|19th District]] was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.<ref>[http://www.censusviewer.com/district-maps/2012/08/new-york-congressional-districts-comparison-2001-2011/ ''Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer'', "New York's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"]</ref><ref>[http://www.votermapping.com ''Labels & Lists'', "VoterMapping software voter counts"]</ref>
*4 percent from the [[New York's 19th congressional district|19th congressional district]]
+
*4 percent from the [[New York's 19th Congressional District|19th Congressional District]]
*45 percent from the [[New York's 20th congressional district|20th congressional district]]
+
*45 percent from the [[New York's 20th Congressional District|20th Congressional District]]
*7 percent from the [[New York's 21st congressional district|21st congressional district]]
+
*7 percent from the [[New York's 21st Congressional District|21st Congressional District]]
*38 percent from the [[New York's 22nd congressional district|22nd congressional district]]
+
*38 percent from the [[New York's 22nd Congressional District|22nd Congressional District]]
  
 
===Registration statistics===
 
===Registration statistics===
Line 148: Line 148:
 
====Cook Political Report's PVI====
 
====Cook Political Report's PVI====
 
:''See also: [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index]]''
 
:''See also: [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index]]''
In 2012, ''Cook Political Report'' released its updated figures on the [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index|Partisan Voter Index]], which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. [[New York's 19th congressional district]] has a PVI of Even, which is the 188th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by [[Barack Obama]] (D), 54-46 percent over [[John McCain]] (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over [[John Kerry]] (D).<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf ''Cook Political Report'' "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012]</ref>
+
In 2012, ''Cook Political Report'' released its updated figures on the [[Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index|Partisan Voter Index]], which measured each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. [[New York's 19th Congressional District]] had a PVI of Even, which was the 188th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by [[Barack Obama]] (D), 54-46 percent over [[John McCain]] (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over [[John Kerry]] (D).<ref>[http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf ''Cook Political Report'', "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012]</ref>
  
 
==District history==
 
==District history==
 +
{{ballot access short}}
 
===2010===
 
===2010===
[[File:NY19.jpg|thumb|300px|This is the 19th congressional district prior to the [[Redistricting in New York|2011 redistricting]].]]
+
[[File:NY19.jpg|thumb|300px|This is the 19th Congressional District prior to the [[Redistricting in New York|2011 redistricting]].]]
On November 2, 2010, [[Nan Hayworth]] was elected to the [[United States House]]. She also ran on the [[Conservative Party]] and [[Independence Party]] tickets. She defeated John J. Hall ([[Democratic|D]]).<ref>[http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2010election.pdf ''U.S. Congress House Clerk'' "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"]</ref>  
+
On November 2, 2010, [[Nan Hayworth]] was elected to the [[United States House]]. She also ran on the [[Conservative Party]] and [[Independence Party]] tickets. She defeated John J. Hall ([[Democratic|D]]).<ref>[http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2010election.pdf ''U.S. Congress House Clerk'', "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"]</ref>  
  
 
{{Election box 2010
 
{{Election box 2010

Revision as of 00:56, 25 June 2014

2014



CongressLogo.png

New York's 19th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
June 26, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Chris Gibson Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Nan Hayworth Republican Party
Nan Hayworth.jpg

New York U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13District 14District 15District 16District 17District 18District 19District 20District 21District 22District 23District 24District 25District 26District 27

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of New York.png
The 19th Congressional District of New York held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

Chris Gibson was re-elected on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
April 16, 2012
June 26, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: New York has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by June 1, 2012. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 12, 2012, or October 26, 2012 in person.[2]

See also: New York elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election was incumbent Nan Hayworth (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010. Due to redistricting, Hayworth ran in the redrawn 18th District, and 20th District incumbent Chris Gibson ran in the new 19th.

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. New York's 19th Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware, Otsego, Schoharie, Greene, and Columbia counties and parts of Montgomery, Rensselaer, and Dutchess counties.[3]

Fusion voting

New York is one of eight states that have "electoral fusion" -- which allows more than one political party to support a common candidate. This creates a situation where one candidate will appear multiple times on the same ballot, for the same position. Electoral fusion was once widespread across the United States, but is now commonly practiced only in New York.

Opponents of fusion voting argue that the process results in dealmarking to ensure that patronage is rampant.[4] Proponents maintain that fusion voting allows for minor parties to actually make a difference during the election, allowing voters the opportunity to vote for a minority party platform but still affect the general election result.[5]

Candidates appearing in the general election will be listed below with colored dots corresponding to any party they will represent on the ballot.


Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Working Families Party Julian Schreibman
Republican Party Conservative Party Independence Party of America Chris Gibson Green check mark transparent.png


June 26, 2012 primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Conservative Party Conservative Primary

Working Families Party Working Families Primary

Independence Party of America Independence candidate


Election results

General election

U.S. House, New York District 19 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngChris Gibson Incumbent 49% 149,736
     Democratic Julian Schreibman 43.7% 133,567
     N/A Blank/Void/Scattering 7.4% 22,579
Total Votes 305,882
Source: New York State Board of Elections "U.S. House of Representatives Results"

Race background

General election

Competitiveness

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for New York's 19th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."[9]

New York's 19th wass considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Chris Gibson was challenged by Julian Schreibman (D). Gibson's district went from a Republican leaning district to a swing district, which Democrats believed they have a chance of securing.[11]

Map of the 19th Congressional District of New York before and after the 2010 redistricting. Click on the link for an interactive map of the congressional districts in New York. For an interactive map of the districts prior to the 2010 Census, click here.

New York's 19th District had been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization had specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[12]

Incumbent Chris Gibson was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.[13]

Democratic primary

Two relatively unknown candidates sought the Democratic nod to face Republican incumbent Chris Gibson in the general election. Dutchess County legislator Joel Tyner faced former federal prosecutor Julian Schreibman in the June 26, 2012 Democratic primary.[14]

The two agreed on many issues. Tyner made opposition to hydrofracking -- a controversial method of oil and natural gas recovery -- a main theme of his campaign, but Schreibman also said he opposes the technique "100%."[15] Both candidates also said they would not be yes-men for President Barack Obama.[15] And each had the similar goal of protecting Social Security.[14] On health care, there was some differentiation, as Tyner called for a single-payer system, while Schreibman supported "universal access to health care" and favored the health care legislation already passed and known as "Obamacare."[16]

Schreibman was endorsed by retiring Representative Maurice Hinchey,[14] and argued that he was the more electable candidate[16] in the Republican-leaning district.[17] He also said he had a greater fundraising capability, which would help battle "an avalanche of unregulated corporate money" in the general election.[18]

But Tyner was quick to criticize the sources of Schreibman's campaign contributions as coming from "investors."[15] He also highlighted his own history of being elected to his county seat despite being in a heavily Republican area, while Schreibman's stint as county Democratic chairman saw party losses in the state Legislature.[18]

Campaign donors

Schreibman received $535,000 in campaign donations in the third quarter, while incumbent Gibson raised $410,000.[19]

The race attracted $3.9 million in outside spending since Labor Day. A total of $1,781,844 was spent helping Democrat Julian Schreibman while $2,069,094 was spent to aid Republican Chris Gibson.[20]

Polls

Chris Gibson vs Julian Schreibman
Poll Gibson SchreibmanUndecided/Not VotingMargin of Error
Public Opinion Strategies (October 26, 2012)
49%39%12%+/-4.9
Siena College (October 30,2012)
48%43%9%+/-3.8
AVERAGES 48.5% 41% 10.5% +/-4.35
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in New York

Following the results of the 2010 Census, New York lost two congressional seats, bringing its total number of representatives down from 29 to 27. According to a report in the Washington Post political blog "The Fix," New York was one of the top 10 redistricting battles in the nation.[21]

The 19th District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[22][23]

Registration statistics

As of October 29, 2012, District 19 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the New York State Board of Elections:

New York Congressional District 19[24]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 19 420,934 130,307 141,258 149,369 Republican 8.40% 12.10%
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. New York's 19th District became more balanced because of redistricting.[25]

  • 2012: 50D / 50R
  • 2010: 48D / 52R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measured each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. New York's 19th Congressional District had a PVI of Even, which was the 188th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 54-46 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over John Kerry (D).[26]

District history

Candidate ballot accecss
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.

2010

This is the 19th Congressional District prior to the 2011 redistricting.

On November 2, 2010, Nan Hayworth was elected to the United States House. She also ran on the Conservative Party and Independence Party tickets. She defeated John J. Hall (D).[27]

U.S. House, New York Congressional District 19 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngNan Hayworth 51% 109,956
     Democratic John J. Hall 45.8% 98,766
     Blank/Scattering 3.3% 7,016
Total Votes 215,738

See also

References

  1. York ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. New York State Board of Elections, "Voting Deadline Page," accessed June 30, 2012
  3. New York Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed September 25, 2012
  4. Clarence Bee, "State Senate candidate calls for an end to fusion voting", accessed September 19, 2013
  5. Oregon Working Family Party, "What is Fusion Voting?", accessed September 19, 2013
  6. Capitol Confidential "Already, Joel Tyner for Congress," accessed December 23, 2011
  7. 7.0 7.1 New York Board of Elections "Filings for June 26, 2012 Federal Primary," April 17, 2012
  8. 8.0 8.1 8.2 New York Board of Elections "List of Filings for June 26, 2012 Federal Primary," accessed May 30, 2012
  9. Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  10. The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012
  11. New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
  12. DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
  13. NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
  14. 14.0 14.1 14.2 River Reporter Online, "Tyner and Schreibman vie for Hinchey’s seat; both claim they follow his progressive lead," June 20, 2012
  15. 15.0 15.1 15.2 Record Online, "Schreibman, Tyner face off in debate for 19th Congressional District," June 18, 2012
  16. 16.0 16.1 Watershed Post, "Congressional candidates Schreibman and Tyner face off in debate," June 19, 2012
  17. Sabato Crystal Ball, "2012 House Ratings," June 13, 2012
  18. 18.0 18.1 Hudson Valley Daily Freeman, "Democratic congressional candidates Julian Schreibman, Joel Tyner square off in debate (videos)," June 19, 2012
  19. Capitol Confidential, "Schreibman raises more money than Gibson," October 5, 2012
  20. The New York Times, "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012
  21. Washington Post, "The Fix," "Redistricting battles hit a fever pitch," June 3, 2011
  22. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "New York's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  23. Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  24. New York State Board of Elections, "District Active Enrollment 2012," April, 2012
  25. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in New York," September 2012
  26. Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
  27. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"