Difference between revisions of "New York's 19th Congressional District elections, 2012"
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Revision as of 20:24, 16 July 2013
November 6, 2012
June 26, 2012
- 1 Fusion voting
- 2 Candidates
- 3 Election results
- 4 Race background
- 5 Campaign donors
- 6 Polls
- 7 Impact of redistricting
- 8 District history
- 9 See also
- 10 References
|Candidate Filing Deadline||Primary Election||General Election|
Primary: New York has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.
- See also: New York elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Nan Hayworth (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010. Due to redistricting, Hayworth is running in the redrawn 18th district, and 20th district incumbent Chris Gibson is running in the new 19th.
This will be the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. New York's 19th congressional district is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware, Otsego, Schoharie, Greene, and Columbia counties and parts of Montgomery, Rensselaer, and Dutchess counties.
New York is one of eight states that have "electoral fusion" -- which allows more than one political party to support a common candidate. This creates a situation where one candidate will appear multiple times on the same ballot, for the same position. Electoral fusion was once widespread across the United States, but is now commonly practiced only in New York.
Opponents of fusion voting argue that the process results in dealmarking to ensure that patronage is rampant. Proponents maintain that fusion voting allows for minor parties to actually make a difference during the election, allowing voters the opportunity to vote for a minority party platform but still affect the general election result.
Candidates appearing in the general election will be listed below with colored dots corresponding to any party they will represent on the ballot.
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
June 26, 2012 primary results
|U.S. House, New York District 19 General Election, 2012|
|Republican||Chris Gibson Incumbent||49%||149,736|
|Source: New York State Board of Elections "U.S. House of Representatives Results"|
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for New York's 19th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." 
|List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:|
New York's 19th is considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Chris Gibson is challenged by Julian Schreibman (D). Gibson's district has gone from a Republican leaning district to a swing district, which Democrats believe they have a chance of securing.
New York's 19th District has been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.
Two relatively unknown candidates sought the Democratic nod to face Republican incumbent Chris Gibson in the general election. Dutchess County legislator Joel Tyner faced former federal prosecutor Julian Schreibman in the June 26 Democratic primary.
The two agreed on many issues. Tyner made opposition to hydrofracking -- a controversial method of oil and natural gas recovery -- a main theme of his campaign, but Schreibman also said he opposes the technique "100%." Both candidates also have said they will not be yes-men for President Barack Obama. And each had the similar goal of protecting Social Security. On health care, there was some differentiation, as Tyner called for a single-payer system, while Schreibman supported "universal access to health care" and favored the health care legislation already passed and known as "Obamacare."
Schreibman was endorsed by retiring Representative Maurice Hinchey, and argued that he was the more electable candidate in the Republican-leaning district. He also said he has a greater fundraising capability, which would help battle "an avalanche of unregulated corporate money" in the general election.
But Tyner was quick to criticize the sources of Schreibman's campaign contributions as coming from "investors." He also highlighted his own history of being elected to his county seat despite being in a heavily Republican area, while Schreibman's stint as county Democratic chairman saw party losses in the state Legislature.
Schreibman received $535,000 in campaign donations in the third quarter, while incumbent Gibson raised $410,000.
|Chris Gibson vs Julian Schreibman|
|Poll||Gibson||Schreibman||Undecided/Not Voting||Margin of Error|
|Public Opinion Strategies (October 26, 2012)||49%||39%||12%||+/-4.9|
|Siena College (October 30,2012)||48%||43%||9%||+/-3.8|
|Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to email@example.com|
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in New York
Following the results of the 2010 Census, New York lost two congressional seats, bringing its total number of representatives down from 29 to 27. According to a report in the Washington Post political blog "The Fix," New York was one of the top 10 redistricting battles in the nation.
- 4 percent from the 19th congressional district
- 45 percent from the 20th congressional district
- 7 percent from the 21st congressional district
- 38 percent from the 22nd congressional district
As of October 29, 2012, District 19 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the New York State Board of Elections:
|New York Congressional District 19|
|Congressional District||District Total||Democrats||Republicans||Other & Unaffiliated||Advantage||Party Advantage||Change in Advantage from 2010|
|"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.|
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. New York's 19th District became more balanced because of redistricting.
- 2012: 50D / 50R
- 2010: 48D / 52R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. New York's 19th congressional district has a PVI of Even, which is the 188th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 54-46 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over John Kerry (D).
|U.S. House, New York Congressional District 19 General Election, 2010|
|Democratic||John J. Hall||45.8%||98,766|
- United States House of Representatives elections in New York, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
- United States Senate elections in New York, 2012
- York ABC News "2012 General Election Results"
- New York State Board of Elections "Voting Deadline Page," Accessed June 30, 2012
- New York Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012
- Electoral fusion ruins elections
- Working Family Party: Fusion voting
- Capitol Confidential "Already, Joel Tyner for Congress," accessed December 23, 2011
- New York Board of Elections "Filings for June 26, 2012 Federal Primary," April 17, 2012
- New York Board of Elections "List of Filings for June 26, 2012 Federal Primary," accessed May 30, 2012
- Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
- The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012
- New York Times "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 10, 2012
- DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
- River Reporter Online "Tyner and Schreibman vie for Hinchey’s seat; both claim they follow his progressive lead," June 20, 2012
- Record Online "Schreibman, Tyner face off in debate for 19th Congressional District," June 18, 2012
- Watershed Post "Congressional candidates Schreibman and Tyner face off in debate," June 19, 2012
- Sabato Crystal Ball "2012 House Ratings," June 13, 2012
- Hudson Valley Daily Freeman "Democratic congressional candidates Julian Schreibman, Joel Tyner square off in debate (videos)," June 19, 2012
- Capitol Confidential, "Schreibman raises more money than Gibson," October 5, 2012
- The New York Times, "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012
- Washington Post, "The Fix," "Redistricting battles hit a fever pitch," June 3, 2011
- Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer "New York's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- Labels & Lists "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- New York State Board of Elections, "District Active Enrollment 2012," April, 2012
- "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in New York," September 2012
- Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
- U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"