Difference between revisions of "New York's 19th Congressional District elections, 2012"

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Schreibman received $535,000 in campaign donations in the third quarter, while incumbent Gibson raised $410,000.<Ref>[http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/159067/schreibman-raises-more-money-than-gibson/ ''Capitol Confidential,'' "Schreibman raises more money than Gibson," October 5, 2012]</ref>
 
Schreibman received $535,000 in campaign donations in the third quarter, while incumbent Gibson raised $410,000.<Ref>[http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/159067/schreibman-raises-more-money-than-gibson/ ''Capitol Confidential,'' "Schreibman raises more money than Gibson," October 5, 2012]</ref>
  
The race has attracted $3.9 million in outside spending since Labor Day. $1,781,844 has been spent helping Democrat [[Julian Schreibman]] while $2,069,094 was spent to aid Republican [[Chris Gibson]].
+
The race has attracted $3.9 million in outside spending since Labor Day. $1,781,844 has been spent helping Democrat [[Julian Schreibman]] while $2,069,094 was spent to aid Republican [[Chris Gibson]].<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/25/us/politics/outside-spending-in-key-house-races.html ''The New York Times,'' "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012]</ref>
  
 
==Impact of redistricting==
 
==Impact of redistricting==

Revision as of 10:29, 29 October 2012

2014



CongressLogo.png

New York's 19th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
June 26, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Chris Gibson Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Nan Hayworth Republican Party
Nan Hayworth.jpg

New York U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13District 14District 15District 16District 17District 18District 19District 20District 21District 22District 23District 24District 25District 26District 27

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of New York.png
The 19th congressional district of New York will hold an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
April 16, 2012
June 26, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: New York has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by June 1. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 12, or October 26 in person.[1]

See also: New York elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Nan Hayworth (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010. Due to redistricting, Hayworth is running in the redrawn 18th district, and 20th district incumbent Chris Gibson is running in the new 19th.

This will be the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. New York's 19th congressional district is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware, Otsego, Schoharie, Greene, and Columbia counties and parts of Montgomery, Rensselaer, and Dutchess counties.[2]

Fusion voting

New York is one of eight states that have "electoral fusion" -- which allows more than one political party to support a common candidate. This creates a situation where one candidate will appear multiple times on the same ballot, for the same position. Electoral fusion was once widespread across the United States, but is now commonly practiced only in New York.

Opponents of fusion voting argue that the process results in dealmarking to ensure that patronage is rampant.[3] Proponents maintain that fusion voting allows for minor parties to actually make a difference during the election, allowing voters the opportunity to vote for a minority party platform but still affect the general election result.[4]

Candidates appearing in the general election will be listed below with colored dots corresponding to any party they will represent on the ballot.

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Working Families Party Julian Schreibman
Republican Party Conservative Party Independence Party of America Chris Gibson Green check mark transparent.png


June 26, 2012 primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Conservative Party Conservative Primary

Working Families Party Working Families Primary

Independence Party of America Independence candidate


Race background

General election

Competitiveness

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for New York's 19th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." [8]

New York's 19th is considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Chris Gibson is challenged by Julian Schreibman (D). Gibson's district has gone from a Republican leaning district to a swing district, which Democrats believe they have a chance of securing.[10]

Map of the 19th congressional district of New York before and after the 2010 redistricting. Click on the link for an interactive map of the congressional districts in New York. For an interactive map of the districts prior to the 2010 Census, click here.

New York's 19th District has been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[11]

Democratic primary

Two relatively unknown candidates sought the Democratic nod to face Republican incumbent Chris Gibson in the general election. Dutchess County legislator Joel Tyner faced former federal prosecutor Julian Schreibman in the June 26 Democratic primary.[12]

The two agreed on many issues. Tyner made opposition to hydrofracking -- a controversial method of oil and natural gas recovery -- a main theme of his campaign, but Schreibman also said he opposes the technique "100%."[13] Both candidates also have said they will not be yes-men for President Barack Obama.[13] And each had the similar goal of protecting Social Security.[12] On health care, there was some differentiation, as Tyner called for a single-payer system, while Schreibman supported "universal access to health care" and favored the health care legislation already passed and known as "Obamacare."[14]

Schreibman has been endorsed by retiring Representative Maurice Hinchey,[12] and argued that he was the more electable candidate[14] in the Republican-leaning district.[15] He also said he has a greater fundraising capability, which would help battle "an avalanche of unregulated corporate money" in the general election.[16]

But Tyner was quick to criticize the sources of Schreibman's campaign contributions as coming from "investors."[13] He also highlighted his own history of being elected to his county seat despite being in a heavily Republican area, while Schreibman's stint as county Democratic chairman saw party losses in the state Legislature.[16]

Campaign donors

Schreibman received $535,000 in campaign donations in the third quarter, while incumbent Gibson raised $410,000.[17]

The race has attracted $3.9 million in outside spending since Labor Day. $1,781,844 has been spent helping Democrat Julian Schreibman while $2,069,094 was spent to aid Republican Chris Gibson.[18]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in New York

Following the results of the 2010 Census, New York lost two congressional seats, bringing its total number of representatives down from 29 to 27. According to a report in the Washington Post political blog "The Fix," New York was one of the top 10 redistricting battles in the nation.[19]

The 19th district was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[20][21]

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. New York's 19th District became more balanced because of redistricting.[22]

  • 2012: 50D / 50R
  • 2010: 48D / 52R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. New York's 19th congressional district has a PVI of Even, which is the 188th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 54-46 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over John Kerry (D).[23]

District history

2010

This is the 19th congressional district prior to the 2011 redistricting.

On November 2, 2010, Nan Hayworth was elected to the United States House. She also ran on the Conservative Party and Independence Party tickets. She defeated John J. Hall (D).[24]

U.S. House, New York Congressional District 19 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngNan Hayworth 51% 109,956
     Democratic 45.8% 98,766
     Blank/Scattering 3.3% 7,016
Total Votes 215,738

See also

References

  1. New York State Board of Elections "Voting Deadline Page," Accessed June 30, 2012
  2. New York Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed September 25, 2012
  3. Electoral fusion ruins elections
  4. Working Family Party: Fusion voting
  5. Capitol Confidential "Already, Joel Tyner for Congress," accessed December 23, 2011
  6. 6.0 6.1 New York Board of Elections "Filings for June 26, 2012 Federal Primary," April 17, 2012
  7. 7.0 7.1 7.2 New York Board of Elections "List of Filings for June 26, 2012 Federal Primary," accessed May 30, 2012
  8. Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  9. The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012
  10. New York Times "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 10, 2012
  11. DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
  12. 12.0 12.1 12.2 River Reporter Online "Tyner and Schreibman vie for Hinchey’s seat; both claim they follow his progressive lead," June 20, 2012
  13. 13.0 13.1 13.2 Record Online "Schreibman, Tyner face off in debate for 19th Congressional District," June 18, 2012
  14. 14.0 14.1 Watershed Post "Congressional candidates Schreibman and Tyner face off in debate," June 19, 2012
  15. Sabato Crystal Ball "2012 House Ratings," June 13, 2012
  16. 16.0 16.1 Hudson Valley Daily Freeman "Democratic congressional candidates Julian Schreibman, Joel Tyner square off in debate (videos)," June 19, 2012
  17. Capitol Confidential, "Schreibman raises more money than Gibson," October 5, 2012
  18. The New York Times, "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012
  19. Washington Post, "The Fix," "Redistricting battles hit a fever pitch," June 3, 2011
  20. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer "New York's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  21. Labels & Lists "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  22. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in New York," September 2012
  23. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  24. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"