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North Carolina's 7th Congressional District elections, 2012

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North Carolina's 7th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
May 8, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Mike McIntyre Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Mike McIntyre Democratic Party
Mike McIntyre.jpg

North Carolina U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of North Carolina.png
The 7th congressional district of North Carolina held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
This is the 7th congressional district prior to the 2011 redistricting.

Incumbent Mike McIntyre (D) won re-election in a tight race that was too close to call for more than a week after polls closed.[1][2] On November 20, 2012, Rouzer requested a recount in the race, which was the "closest Congressional race in the country.[3]


Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
February 29, 2012
May 8, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: North Carolina has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 13. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 12.[4]

See also: North Carolina elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Mike McIntyre (D), who was first elected to the House in 1996.

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. North Carolina's 7th congressional district was located in the southern portion of the state and included Robeson, Cumberland, Sampson, Bladen, Columbus, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, and Duplin counties.[5]

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Mike McIntyre Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party David Rouzer


May 8, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Note: Timothy Alan Wilkes appeared on initial lists but ultimately withdrew prior to the primary.[7]

Election Results

General Election

U.S. House, North Carolina District 7 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMike McIntyre Incumbent 50.1% 168,695
     Republican David Rouzer 49.9% 168,041
Total Votes 336,736
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Republican Primary

North Carolina's 7th Congressional District Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Rouzer 48.5% 34,647
Ilario Gregory Pantano 44.5% 31,752
Randy Crow 7% 5,012
Total Votes 71,411

Race background

Competitiveness

North Carolina's 7th is considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Democratic incumbent Mike McIntyre was challenged by David Rouzer (R), a "young gun", in a Republican leaning district. McIntyre was hoping to survive by distancing himself from his fellow Democrats..[8]

Republican challenger David Rouzer has been included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlights challengers who represent the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[9]

The Washington Post listed the House of Representatives elections in North Carolina in 2012 as one of the states that could have determined whether Democrats retook the House or Republicans held their majority in 2013.[10] North Carolina was rated 8th on the list.[10]

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for North Carolina's 7th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." [11]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in North Carolina

Following the 2010 Census results, North Carolina did not gain or lose any congressional seats, maintaining its 13 representatives. Under the new map, the 7th District leaned Republican. In addition, current 7th District Rep. Mike McIntyre's home was redrawn into the 8th District. Regardless, McIntyre intended to seek re-election in the new 7th.[6]

Registration statistics

As of May 11, 2012, District 7 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the North Carolina Board of Elections:

North Carolina Congressional District 7[13]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 7 477,394 199,374 159,557 118,463 Democratic 24.95% -46.95%
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. North Carolina's 7th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[14]

  • 2012: 38D / 62R
  • 2010: 44D / 56R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. North Carolina's 7th congressional district has a PVI of R+11, which is the 94th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 58-42 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-39 percent over John Kerry (D).[15]

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.

Mike McIntyre

Mike McIntyre (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[16]April 15, 2012$687,284.15$160,938.47$(69,237.30)$778,985.32
July Quarterly[17]July 15, 2012$763,976.49$386,910.24$(74,535.72)$1,076,351.01
Running totals
$547,848.71$(143,773.02)

David Rouzer

David Rouzer (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[18]April 15, 2012$279,195.41$244,130.79$(433,090.47)$90,235.73
July Quarterly[19]July 15, 2012$88,397.41$272,779.04$(189,568.02)$171,608.43
Running totals
$516,909.83$(622,658.49)

District history

See also

References

  1. New York Times "House Results," Accessed November 7, 2012
  2. Raleigh News & Observer "McIntyre declares victory as final votes counted," November 16, 2012
  3. Roll Call "North Carolina: Rouzer Calls for Recount in Race Against McIntyre," November 20, 2012
  4. North Carolina State Board of Elections "Registering to Vote in North Carolina," Accessed July 26, 2012
  5. North Carolina Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed August 24, 2012
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Roll Call "Race Ratings: GOP looks for major gains in North Carolina," Accessed December 26, 2011
  7. OpenSecrets.org accessed February 5, 2012
  8. New York Times "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 10, 2012
  9. NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
  10. 10.0 10.1 Washington Post "The 10 states that will determine control of the House in 2012" Accessed April 25, 2012
  11. Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  12. The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012
  13. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "US Congressional Districts by County and Precinct," May 11, 2012
  14. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in North Carolina," September 2012
  15. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  16. Federal Election Commission "Mike McIntyre April Quarterly," Accessed August 19, 2012
  17. Federal Election Commission "Mike McIntyre July Quarterly," Accessed August 19, 2012
  18. Federal Election Commission "David Rouzer April Quarterly," Accessed August 19, 2012
  19. Federal Election Commission "David Rouzer July Quarterly," Accessed August 19, 2012