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North Carolina gubernatorial election, 2012

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The North Carolina gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012. The primary election was held on May 8, 2012.

Early in the election cycle, the 2012 race was shaping up to be a repeat of 2008, in which Beverly Perdue narrowly defeated Pat McCrory with roughly 50% of the vote. That changed in January 2012, though, when Perdue announced she would not seek a second term in office. Perdue, a first term Democrat and the first female governor in the history of the Tarheel State, had been slipping in the polls and at the time of her announcement was preparing to propose a budget that included a controversial sales tax increase for education. In explaining her decision, Perdue said a bid for re-election would "only further politicize the fight to adequately fund our schools."[1]

Perdue's lieutenant governor, Walter Dalton, declared his intention to run for governor the day after Perdue announced she would not seek re-election.[2] The primary season, short though it was, was a close match but Dalton managed to edge out former Congressman Bob Etheridge and four other candidates.

On the Republican side, Pat McCrory easily defeated five challengers in the primary. He went on to defeat Dalton in the general election on November 6, 2012.


[edit]

Candidates

Democratic Party Walter Dalton (Democrat)
Republican Party Pat McCrory (Republican) Green check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party Barbara Howe (Libertarian)

Results

Governor of North Carolina General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Walter Dalton 43.2% 1,931,580
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPat McCrory 54.6% 2,440,707
     Libertarian Barbara Howe 2.1% 94,652
     Write-in Various 0% 1,356
Total Votes 4,468,295
Election Results via NC State Board of Elections.


Democratic

Governor of North Carolina Democratic Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngWalter Dalton 45.9% 428,475
Bob Etheridge 38% 354,923
Bill Faison 5.6% 52,179
Gardenia Henley 5.2% 48,982
Gary M. Dunn 2.9% 27,358
Bruce Blackmon 2.4% 22,370
Total Votes 934,287
Election Results Via:The North Carolina Board of Elections.


Republican

Governor of North Carolina Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPat McCrory 83.4% 748,180
Paul Wright 5.3% 47,403
Scott Jones 3.5% 31,191
James Mahan 3.4% 30,056
Jim Harney 3% 26,485
Charles Moss 1.5% 13,822
Total Votes 897,137
Election Results Via:The North Carolina Board of Elections.


Former candidates

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NewsCalendar

Key dates

Deadline Event
Feb. 13 - Feb. 29 Statewide candidate filing
Apr. 13 Voter registration for primary election
May 8 Primary election
Oct. 12 Voter registration for general election
Nov. 6 General election

Race ratings

2011 Race Rankings - North Carolina Governor
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[3] Toss-up
Governing Politics[4] Lean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[6] No prediction yet
The Rothenberg Political Report[7] Lean Republican
Overall Call

Contents
1 General
2 Primary
2.1 Democratic
2.2 Republican

General election polls

Without Barbara Howe (Libertarian candidate)

Governor of North Carolina (Dalton and McCrory only)
Poll Walter Dalton Pat McCroryUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
May 10-13, 2012
40%46%13%+/-3.8666
Public Policy Polling
June 7-10, 2012
40%47%13%+/-3.4810
NBC News/Marist
June 24-25, 2012
41%43%17%+/-3.11,208
Rasmussen Reports
June 25, 2012
35%49%12%+/-4.5500
Elon University
August 25-30, 2012
37%52%11%+/-3.01,089
Rasmussen Reports
September 13, 2012
38%51%10%+/-4.5500
Rasmussen Reports
October 9, 2012
38%52%10%+/-4.5500
AVERAGES 38.43% 48.57% 12.29% +/-3.83 753.29
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

With Barbara Howe (Libertarian candidate)

Governor of North Carolina (all 3 candidates)
Poll Walter Dalton Pat McCroryBarbara HoweUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Civitas Institute
June 29 - July 1, 2012
44%46%7%3%+/-4.2558
Public Policy Polling
July 5-8, 2012
36%43%9%12%+/-3.5775
Civitas Institute
July 16-18, 2012
37%47%6%10%+/-4.0600
Public Policy Polling
August 2-5, 2012
38%45%7%11%+/-3.4813
Public Policy Polling
August 31–September 2
39%45%5%11%+/-3.11,012
Civitas Institute
September 18-19
38%49%2%9%+/-4600
Public Policy Polling
September 27-30
37%47%5%11%+/-3.1981
Public Policy Polling
October 12-14, 2012
37%47%5%11%+/-3.01,084
Public Policy Polling
October 23-25, 2012
37%50%5%8%+/-3.3880
Public Policy Polling
October 29-31, 2012
39%50%4%7%+/-3.6730
AVERAGES 38.2% 46.9% 5.5% 9.3% +/-3.52 730.3
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Between March 8th and 11th, Public Policy Polling surveyed 804 North Carolina voters. The respondents were give hypothetical match-ups between Pat McCrory and the Democratic candidates, and asked which of the two candidates they would vote for.[8]

Hypothetical match-ups for Governor of North Carolina
Bruce BlackmonWalter DaltonBob EtheridgeGardenia Henley
Percent of the vote33%35%36%29%
Pat McCrory's percent of the vote48%46%46%49%
Undecided18%19%18%22%

On April 10, 2012, Pulse Opinion Research, LLC, conducted a telephone survey of 500 likely voters in North Carolina on behalf of Rasmussen Reports. Similar to the Public Policy Polling survey cited above, respondents were given three separate hypothetical situations that matched presumptive Republican candidate Pat McCrory and three Democratic candidates and asked how they would vote in each if the election were held that day.[9]

Hypothetical match-ups for Governor of North Carolina
Walter DaltonBob EtheridgeBill Faison
Percent of the vote36%35%30%
Pat McCrory's percent of the vote45%46%47%

Primary polls

Democratic



Republican

Campaign sites

Democratic candidates:

Republican candidates:

Libertarian candidate:

Media

Walter Dalton

Pat McCrory

Republican Governors Association

North Carolina Citizens for Progress

The North Carolina State Board of Elections administers campaign finance laws and maintains all records online.

Walter Dalton

Walter Dalton Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
2012 First Quarter Report (Amended)[10]June 15, 2012$590,298.28$657,847.68$(577,789.82)$670,356.14
Second Quarter Report[11]July 11, 2012$670,356.14$1,053,979.05$(1,009,992.83)$714,342.36
Third Quarter Report[12]October 20, 2012$714,342.36$1,434,293.91$(1,880,402.41)$268,233.86
Running totals
$3,146,120.64$(3,468,185.06)

Pat McCrory

Pat McCrory Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
First Quarter Report[13]April 27, 2012$2,049,467.25$1,697,563.05$(604,157.22)$3,142,873.08
Second Quarter Report[14]July 11, 2012$3,142,873.08$2,221,250.20$(1,003,095.07)$4,361,028.21
Third Quarter Report[15]October 20, 2012$4,361,028.21$5,017,072.66$(7,694,695.81)$1,683,405.06
Running totals
$8,935,885.91$(9,301,948.1)

Barbara Howe

Barbara Howe Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
First Quarter Report[16]April 27, 2012$238.03$16,725.00$(62.57)$16,900.46
Second Quarter Report[17]July 11, 2012$16,900.46$5,694.60$(5,954.47)$16,640.59
Third Quarter Report[18]October 20, 2012$16,640.59$108,910.68$(76,091.59)$49,459.68
Running totals
$131,330.28$(82,108.63)

Additional reading

See also

External links

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Suggest a link

References

  1. Chicago Tribune, "NC Gov. Perdue gives up on 2nd term run; says it would politicize school funding fight," January 26, 2012
  2. Watuga Democrat.com, "Walter Dalton announced run for governor," January 27, 2012
  3. The Cook Political Report, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  4. Governing Politics, “Looking Ahead: The 2011-2012 Gubernatorial Landscape”, December 2, 2010
  5. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2011 Governor Ratings”
  6. Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  7. Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  8. Public Policy Polling, "McCrory tops Etheridge, Dalton by ten to eleven points," retrieved March 19, 2012
  9. '"Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2012:North Carolina Governor," accessed April 24, 2012
  10. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Walter Dalton: First Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved July 18, 2012
  11. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Walter Dalton: Second Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved July 18, 2012
  12. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Walter Dalton: Third Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved October 31, 2012
  13. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Pat McCrory: First Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved May 29, 2012
  14. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Pat McCrory: Second Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved July 18, 2012
  15. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Pat McCrory: Third Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved October 31, 2012
  16. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Barbara Howe: First Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved May 29, 2012
  17. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Barbara Howe: Second Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved July 18, 2012
  18. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Barbara Howe: Third Quarter Disclosure Report," retrieved October 31, 2012