Difference between revisions of "Partisan balance of legislatures and 2010 competitiveness"

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
(update page)
Line 1: Line 1:
{{tnr}}'''6,125 seats''' of the country's 7,384 state legislative seats are up for election in the [[state legislative elections, 2010|2010 state legislative elections]].  
+
{{CA201toc}}'''6,125 seats''' of the country's 7,384 state legislative seats are up for election in the [[state legislative elections, 2010|2010 state legislative elections]].  
[[File:Competitiveness logo 4.jpg|350px|right|link=Ballotpedia:Dearth of challengers in 2010 state legislative elections|]]
+
 
 
This includes:
 
This includes:
  
Line 6: Line 6:
 
* 4,958 (91.6%) of the country's 5,413 [[state representatives|state house seats]].
 
* 4,958 (91.6%) of the country's 5,413 [[state representatives|state house seats]].
  
Ballotpedia's staff [[Ballotpedia:Dearth of challengers in 2010 state legislative elections|sconducted an analysis]] to determine the '''degree of competitiveness''' of 2010's state legislative elections.  We also determined the extent to which state legislative incumbents who are running again in 2010 had or have:
+
There are [[state legislative elections, 2010|6,125 state legislative districts with a seat up for election]] on November 2, 2010, in 46 states.  We took a look at each of the 46 states to see how many state legislative incumbents chose to run for re-election in 2010
  
* An opponent in their party's primary
+
Our main findings:
* An [[Candidates with no general election opposition in 2010 state legislative elections|opponent in the November 2 election]].
+
  
Overall, the competitive analysis leans in the Republican's favor going into the elections -- meaning Democrats have a greater likelihood to lose seats because of the following factors:
+
Overall, the competitive analysis leans in the '''Republican's favor''' going into the elections -- meaning Democrats have a higher likelihood of losing seats because of the following factors:
  
 
:*There are '''46 more Democratic incumbents''' than Republicans that have vacated their seats.
 
:*There are '''46 more Democratic incumbents''' than Republicans that have vacated their seats.
 
:*There are '''112 more Democratic incumbents''' than Republicans that faced a primary.
 
:*There are '''112 more Democratic incumbents''' than Republicans that faced a primary.
:*There are '''111 more Republican incumbents''' than Democrats that face no primary or general election competition.
+
:*There are '''134 more Republican candidates''' than Democrats that face no major party competition in the general election.
 
+
{{tnr}}
 
All of that points toward a greater likelihood that Republicans may win back more seats in the election.
 
All of that points toward a greater likelihood that Republicans may win back more seats in the election.
  
==Partisan composition of chambers==
+
Comparing states:
  
 +
 +
 +
==Partisan composition of chambers==
 +
[[File:Competitiveness logo 4.jpg|350px|right|link=2010 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index|]]
 
Heading into the 2010 elections, this was the breakdown of partisan control of each chamber:
 
Heading into the 2010 elections, this was the breakdown of partisan control of each chamber:
 
<div style="float:left; margin-top: 0.0em; margin-bottom:3px; background-color: #transparent; padding: .2em .6em; font-size: 100%; border:1px solid #A3B1BF;">'''Legend:'''
 
<div style="float:left; margin-top: 0.0em; margin-bottom:3px; background-color: #transparent; padding: .2em .6em; font-size: 100%; border:1px solid #A3B1BF;">'''Legend:'''
Line 27: Line 30:
 
<span style="font-size: larger;font-weight: bold;"></span></div><br><br><br><br>
 
<span style="font-size: larger;font-weight: bold;"></span></div><br><br><br><br>
  
{|class="wikitable" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:40%;"
+
{|class="wikitable" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:40%;"
 
|-
 
|-
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Legislative chamber
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Legislative chamber
Line 73: Line 76:
 
Below is the comparison of term-limited states and non-term-limited state senates.   
 
Below is the comparison of term-limited states and non-term-limited state senates.   
  
{|class="wikitable" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:55%;"
+
{|class="wikitable" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:65%;"
 
|-
 
|-
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" |  
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" |  
Line 108: Line 111:
 
===Non-Term limited Senates===
 
===Non-Term limited Senates===
  
{|class="wikitable" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:55%;"
+
{|class="wikitable" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:65%;"
 
|-
 
|-
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" |  
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" |  
Line 144: Line 147:
 
===Term limited states: senate analysis===
 
===Term limited states: senate analysis===
  
{|class="wikitable" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:90%;"
+
{|class="wikitable sortable" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1" style="background:none" style="width:90%;"
 
|-
 
|-
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Senate with limits
 
! style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | Senate with limits
Line 281: Line 284:
  
 
|-valign="top"
 
|-valign="top"
| style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | '''Totals:''' || text align="center" | '''523''' || text align="center"| '''337''' || text align="center"| '''164'''  || text align="center"| '''34''' || align="center" | '''38'''  
+
| style="background-color:#00008B; color: white;" | '''Totals:''' || text align="center" | '''523''' || text align="center"| '''337''' || text align="center"| '''164'''  || text align="center"| '''34''' || align="center" | '''38''' || NA
 
|}
 
|}
  

Revision as of 07:30, 28 September 2010

2010 Competitiveness Overview
Competitiveness logo 4.jpg
Primary competition (state comparison)
Incumbents with no primary challenge in 2010
Incumbents with no challenges at all in 2010
Incumbents defeatedVictorious challengers
Major party challengers (state comparison)
List of candidates with no competition
Open seats (state comparisons)
Impact of term limits on # of open seats
Long-serving senatorsLong-serving reps
Star bookmark.png   Results Comparisons  Star bookmark.png
Chart Comparing 2011 ResultsComparisons Between Years
Party differences
Competitiveness Index
2010 State Legislative Elections
Competitiveness Studies from Other Years
200720092011201220132014
6,125 seats of the country's 7,384 state legislative seats are up for election in the 2010 state legislative elections.

This includes:

There are 6,125 state legislative districts with a seat up for election on November 2, 2010, in 46 states. We took a look at each of the 46 states to see how many state legislative incumbents chose to run for re-election in 2010.

Our main findings:

Overall, the competitive analysis leans in the Republican's favor going into the elections -- meaning Democrats have a higher likelihood of losing seats because of the following factors:

  • There are 46 more Democratic incumbents than Republicans that have vacated their seats.
  • There are 112 more Democratic incumbents than Republicans that faced a primary.
  • There are 134 more Republican candidates than Democrats that face no major party competition in the general election.

All of that points toward a greater likelihood that Republicans may win back more seats in the election.

Comparing states:


Partisan composition of chambers

Competitiveness logo 4.jpg

Heading into the 2010 elections, this was the breakdown of partisan control of each chamber:

Legend:
Democratic Party = Democratic Party holds majority position • Republican Party = Republican Party holds majority position
Constitution_Party#Independent_American_Party_of_Nevada = Political parties tied for partisan control • Independent = Officially non-partisan chamber




Legislative chamber Democratic Party Republican Party Constitution_Party#Independent_American_Party_of_Nevada Independent
State senates 23 18 1 1
State houses 29 15 1 -
Totals: 52 33 2 1

The 2010 elections could swing a number of chambers. Our research indicates that certain chambers might have a greater likelihood of swinging to a different party.

Term limits

Republicans take more of a hit from term limits in this year's election. This is both in terms of how many individual incumbent legislators the Republican Party is losing (190, versus 182 for the Democratic Party) and in terms of how many state legislative chambers are losing more Republicans (13, versus 10 for the Democratic Party).

Additionally, term limits prove to be a unique scenario for competitiveness.

  • There are13 more Republican incumbents than Democrats that have vacated their seats.
  • There are 25 more Republican incumbents than Democrats that faced a primary.
  • There are 36 more Republican incumbents than Democrats that face no primary or general election competition.

Thus, in two out of the three categories in term limited states, Republicans face a steeper climb to gaining back any more legislative seats.

2010 State senate elections
ALAKARARCACOCTDEFLGAHIIDILINIAKYMEMDMAMIMNMOMTNENVNHNYNCNDOHOKORPARISDTNTXUTVTWAWVWIWY
Parties with candidates
Impact of term limits
Successful challengers
Defeated incumbents
State house elections
State senate elections
State legislative elections

Term limited Senates

Below is the comparison of term-limited states and non-term-limited state senates.

Number of Open seats Total incumbents facing primary Total incumbents with no primary or general election
Democrats Democratic Party 75 7 11
Republicans Republican Party 82 15 16
Independents Independent 3 13 8
Total 164 35 137

Non-Term limited Senates

Number of Open seats Total incumbents facing primary Total incumbents with no primary or general election
Democrats Democratic Party 63 89 74
Republicans Republican Party 45 62 102
Independents Independent 0 0 0
Total 109 151 176


Term limited states: senate analysis

Senate with limits Seats in senate Up for election in 2010 Total open seats Total incumbents facing primary Total incumbents with no primary or general election opponent Competitiveness rank (overall)
Arizona: (Senate), (2010 elections) 30 30 15 4 5 2
Arkansas: (Senate), (2010 elections) 35 17 13 1 3 33
California: (Senate), (2010 elections) 40 21 10 0 0 10
Colorado: (Senate), (2010 elections) 35 19 6 1 0 22
Florida: (Senate), (2010 elections) 40 23 13 2 5 12
Maine: (Senate), (2010 elections) 35 35 10 0 0 15
Michigan: (Senate), (2010 elections) 38 38 29 3 0 3
Missouri: (Senate), (2010 elections) 34 17 10 3 1 21
Montana: (Senate), (2010 elections) 50 26 17 0 2 13
Nebraska: (Senate), (2010 elections) 49 24 3 13 8 16
Nevada: (Senate), (2010 elections) 21 11 8 1 0 4
Ohio: (Senate), (2010 elections) 33 17 9 1 1 11
Oklahoma: (Senate), (2010 elections) 48 24 9 4 6 32
South Dakota: (Senate), (2010 elections) 35 35 13 1 7 18
Totals: 523 337 164 34 38 NA

See also

State legislative elections, 2010 Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010 Ballotpedia:Dearth of challengers in 2010 state legislative elections