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Difference between revisions of "Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election, 2014"

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==Polls==
 
==Polls==
 
===Hypothetical match-up===
 
===Hypothetical match-up===
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{{Hypothetical match-up poll
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|Collapse=
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|Title =[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1991 Quinnipiac University Poll: Pennsylvania Governor's Race]<br>December 11-16, 2013
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|Inc =Tom Corbett (R)
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|Response1 =Rob McCord (D)
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|Response2 =Allyson Schwartz (D)
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|Response3 =Tom Wolf (D)
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|Response4 =John Hanger (D)
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|Response5 =Katie McGinty (D)
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|Response6 =Ed Pawlowski (D)
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|Response7 =Jack Wagner (D)
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|Response1% =42
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|Response2% =45
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|Response3% =44
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|Response4% =37
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|Response5% =44
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|Response6% =41
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|Response7% =48
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|IncvsResponse1% =39
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|IncvsResponse2% =37
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|IncvsResponse3% =37
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|IncvsResponse4% =42
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|IncvsResponse5% =37
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|IncvsResponse6% =39
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|IncvsResponse7% =36
 +
|Undec1%=15
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|Undec2%=12
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|Undec3%=14
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|Undec4%=14
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|Undec5%=15
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|Undec6%=14
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|Undec7%=11
 +
|Numberpolled=1061
 +
|Margin of error=3%
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}}
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{{Hypothetical match-up poll
 
{{Hypothetical match-up poll
 
|Collapse=
 
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Revision as of 12:51, 15 January 2014


StateExecLogo.png

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
May 20, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Tom Corbett Republican Party
Tom Corbett 2013.jpg

Pennsylvania State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
GovernorLt. Governor

Flag of Pennsylvania.png
The Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tom Corbett (R) is eligible, and running, for re-election. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office.

Pennsylvania is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[1][2][3]

Candidates

Note: The following list of candidates is not official and will continue to be updated until the 2014 candidate filing deadline. Candidates will be added as we come across them prior to the deadline. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

Declared candidates

Lost in the primary

Removed from ballot

Withdrawn

Declined


Race background

By the summer of 2013, The New York Times, The Washington Post and Governing had all rated Republican incumbent Tom Corbett as one of the most vulnerable governors facing re-election in 2014.[28] Their reports reflect the Republican governor's increasingly weak position heading into the 2014 election season, when his abysmal job approval ratings as well as state Democrats, rabid for an ousting after years under a Republican trifecta, will finally be put to the test.[29]

A July 2013 survey taken by Harper Polling showed that just under a quarter of state residents think Corbett deserves to be elected again in 2014.[30] Those results backed up earlier polling figures released by Quinnipiac University, which had him at 38 percent job approval and substantially behind Democratic gubernatorial candidate U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz in a hypothetical general election match up.[31] The Quinnipiac poll showed Schwartz beating Corbett by a whopping 10 points. Better odds, as it happens, than had been revealed in a similar survey conducted previously by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican-aligned firm.[32]

Back in April 2013, Schwartz was already looking especially threatening vis a vis Corbett's dismal popularity among female respondents, 54-27 percent of whom expressed opposition to Corbett’s re-election, a margin of 2 to 1.[33]

There are 36 states holding regularly scheduled gubernatorial elections in 2014 and there are 5-10 seats considered most likely to face partisan switch, Corbett among them. He recently moved into to the top slot on the Washington Post's "engangered" list, after having been in third place during the prior rating cycle.[34][35][36] Corbett's upgraded vulnerability status comes to bear on the heels of his failure to enact any of his three tent-pole policy initiatives during recently concluded spring legislative session. The timing also corresponded to a further swell of Democratic candidates entering the 2014 governor's race.

Several Democratic hopefuls - Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Secretary John Hanger, Hanger's predecessor Kate McGinty, Cumberland County minister Max Myers, Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz, York businessman Tom Wolf and State Treasurer Rob McCord - have formally launched 2014 campaigns for governor. Three other potential Democratic candidates have been mentioned in connection with the race: State rep. H. Scott Conklin, former state auditor and state senator Jack Wagner and county commission chairman Josh Shapiro.[37][21][38][39]

Republican primary

Two Republicans have also been mentioned as potential primary opponents of Governor Corbett: former radio announcer Tom Lineaweaver and conservative activist Bob Guzzardi.[40][41] Guzzardi filed for the Republican primary and initially survived a challenge to his campaign's signatures after the Republican Party of Pennsylvania tried to get him disqualified.[42] However, on appeal to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, Guzzardi was ordered stricken from the ballot on a technicality. The majority on the court found that Guzzardi had failed to "meet a deadline for filing a statement of financial interests" with the State Ethics Commission and his campaign filing therefore "possessed a 'fatal defect.'"[43] Two justices dissented, citing the lower court's finding that Guzzardi had filed the proper forms with the Pennsylvania Department of State and had been told by an employee there that he did not need to also file with the State Ethics Board.[43][44]

I agree with the Commonwealth Court that what occurred here was a breakdown in the administrative process. To strike this candidate's name from the ballot is akin to denying candidates their right to appear on the ballot under circumstances where there was some accident or natural disaster preventing candidates from entering the filing office.[45]

—Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice Max Baer, In Re: Nom. Pet. of Robert Guzzardi Dissenting Statement


Polls

Hypothetical match-up

Quinnipiac University Poll: Pennsylvania Governor's Race
December 11-16, 2013
ResponseRob McCord (D)Allyson Schwartz (D)Tom Wolf (D)
Percent of the vote424544
Tom Corbett (R) percent of the vote393737
Undecided151214
Number polled 1,061
Margin of error +/-3%



Quinnipiac University Poll: Pennsylvania Governor's Race
April 19-24, 2013
ResponseRob McCord (D)Allyson Schwartz (D)Joe Sestak (D)
Percent of the vote444748
Tom Corbett (R) percent of the vote353434
Undecided171514
Number polled 1,235
Margin of error +/-2.8%


Primary

Governor of Pennsylvania - Democratic Primary
Poll Allyson Schwartz Kate McGintyRob McCordJohn HangerEd PawlowskiTom WolfNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling
November 9-10, 2013
22%15%12%7%6%5%34%+/-3.85649
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

See also

External links

Light Bulb Icon.svg.png
Suggest a link

References

  1. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  2. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  3. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  4. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," March 11, 2013
  5. The Associated Press, "AP: Ex-revenue chief Tom Wolf running for Pa. gov," April 2, 2013
  6. Montgomery County Green Party, "Paul Glover Seeking GPPA Gubernatorial Nomination," December 9, 2013
  7. TribLive, "Philadelphian may seek Libertarian nomination for gubernatorial run," November 1, 2013
  8. 8.0 8.1 8.2 Philly.com, "Brady likes Stack for governor," April 24, 2013
  9. Philly.com, "State Treasurer joins race for governor," September 24, 2013
  10. The Republic, "Conservative activist Bob Guzzardi says he aims to challenge Corbett in Pa. GOP primary," Decamber 31, 2013
  11. PennLive, "Pa. Supreme Court ousts Guzzardi from GOP ballot in governor's race," May 1, 2014
  12. Facebook, "Tom Lineaweaver for Governor of PA," accessed September 2, 2013
  13. 13.0 13.1 13.2 Pennsylvania Department of State, "2014 Primary Candidate List," March 12, 2014
  14. 14.0 14.1 The Morning Call, "Qpoll: Pawlowski, Sestak top potential Dem challengers against Corbett," March 13, 2013
  15. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Allentown mayor runs for governor in 2014," September 8, 2013
  16. Lehigh Valley Live, "Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski officially pulls out of governor's race, citing lack of money," February 4, 2014
  17. PoliticsPA, "Exclusive: Conklin Joins Dem Gov-Stakes," March 26, 2013
  18. Centre Daily Times, "Rep. Scott Conklin won’t run for Pennsylvania governor," March 11, 2014
  19. Jo Ellen Litz For Governor 2014, "Homepage," accessed July 15, 2013
  20. Centre Daily Times, "Pa. filings leave Corbett facing new challenge," March 12, 2014
  21. 21.0 21.1 21.2 PoliticsPA, "Exclusive: McGinty to Launch Guv Exploratory Committee," March 18, 2013
  22. Trib-Live, Wagner mulls gubernatorial run, August 17, 2013]
  23. philly.com, "Jack Wagner drops out of Pa. governor's race," March 27, 2014
  24. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Former DEP head John Hanger drops out of governor's race," March 27, 2014
  25. PoliticsPA, "Breaking: Castor Rules Out 2014 Run," May 7, 2013
  26. PoliticsPA, "State Sen. Stack Passes on Guv Run, Seeks LG Instead," October 17, 2013
  27. Allentown Morning Call, "Corbett: No plans to end 'tradition' of Pa. governors serving two terms," November 12, 2012
  28. The New York Times, "Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?," April 8, 2013
  29. The Washington Post, "Tom Corbett is the most endangered governor in the country," July 12, 2013
  30. Harper Polling, "Pennsylvania Poll: State Budget & Corbett Re-election," July 1-2, 2013
  31. Quinnipiac University, "Schwartz, Best-Known Of Unknown Dems, Tops Corbett, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Girl Next Door Clinton Tops Native Son Santorum In 2016," June 7, 2013
  32. Public Opinion Strategies via the Philadelphia City Paper "Pennsylvania Statewide/Philadelphia Suburbs Poll," April 30-May 2, 2013
  33. Quinnipiac University Poll, "LEADING DEMS TOP CORBETT IN PENNSYLVANIA GOV RACE,QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;DEM PRIMARY IS A RACE BETWEEN SCHWARTZ AND SESTAK," April 29, 2013
  34. University of Virginia Center for Politics: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," April 29, 2013
  35. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top 15 gubernatorial races," March 22, 2013
  36. Governing Politics, "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?," December 12, 2012
  37. Philadelphia Inquirer, "State Treasurer Rob McCord launches PAC for governors race," July 11, 2013
  38. The Associated Press, "AP: Ex-revenue chief Tom Wolf running for Pa. gov," April 2, 2013
  39. Lebanon Daily News, "Litz to announce run for governor July 2," June 18, 2013
  40. Facebook, "Tom Lineaweaver for Governor of PA," accessed September 2, 2013
  41. The Republic, "Conservative activist Bob Guzzardi says he aims to challenge Corbett in Pa. GOP primary," Decamber 31, 2013
  42. TribLive, "Judge says Corbett primary challenger can stay on ballot, appeal planned," April 16, 2014
  43. 43.0 43.1 PennLive, "Pa. Supreme Court ousts Guzzardi from GOP ballot in governor's race," May 1, 2014
  44. PennLive, "Corbett challenger Robert Guzzardi will stay on Republican primary ballot," April 15, 2014
  45. Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributed to the original source.