Difference between revisions of "Template:Ilgovbackground2014"

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Quinn's 2010 running-mate and first term incumbent Lt. Gov [[Sheila Simon]] (D) is also eligible for re-election, but she announced in February 2013 that she would retire the post at the end of her term. Simon said she wanted to seek a new office that would allow her to have a "greater impact," and later declared her candidacy for [[Illinois Comptroller|state comptroller]].<ref> [http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-02-13/news/chi-lt-gov-simon-will-not-run-again-for-the-office-20130213_1_lieutenant-governor-democrat-sheila-simon-pat-quinn ''Chicago Tribune,'' "Simon will not run again for lieutenant governor," February 13, 2013]</ref><ref> [http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/Felsenthal-Files/March-2013/Q-A-Lieutenant-Governor-Sheila-Simon/ ''Chicago Magazine,'' "What Happens After Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon Quits Pat Quinn’s Team," March 26, 2013] </ref> Simon's thinly veiled swipe at the office's unsatisfactory "impact" potential was followed shortly thereafter by the [[Illinois House of Representatives]]' approval of a proposal seeking to eliminate the position of lieutenant governor altogether by [[Illinois Constitution|constitutional amendment]]. In order for the measure to be passed, it must win approval of both the [[Illinois State Senate|State Senate]] and Illinois voters. If the proposal is approved in a statewide public vote, the office will remain intact for one final term following the 2014 election.<ref>[http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-quinn-guns-0412-20130412,0,4187302.story ''The Chicago Tribune,'' "House votes to eliminate lieutenant governor post," April 12, 2013]</ref> Quinn said he wanted “a people person,” to replace Simon, and ultimately settled on former Chicago public schools chief [[Paul Vallas]].<ref name=newera/>
 
Quinn's 2010 running-mate and first term incumbent Lt. Gov [[Sheila Simon]] (D) is also eligible for re-election, but she announced in February 2013 that she would retire the post at the end of her term. Simon said she wanted to seek a new office that would allow her to have a "greater impact," and later declared her candidacy for [[Illinois Comptroller|state comptroller]].<ref> [http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-02-13/news/chi-lt-gov-simon-will-not-run-again-for-the-office-20130213_1_lieutenant-governor-democrat-sheila-simon-pat-quinn ''Chicago Tribune,'' "Simon will not run again for lieutenant governor," February 13, 2013]</ref><ref> [http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/Felsenthal-Files/March-2013/Q-A-Lieutenant-Governor-Sheila-Simon/ ''Chicago Magazine,'' "What Happens After Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon Quits Pat Quinn’s Team," March 26, 2013] </ref> Simon's thinly veiled swipe at the office's unsatisfactory "impact" potential was followed shortly thereafter by the [[Illinois House of Representatives]]' approval of a proposal seeking to eliminate the position of lieutenant governor altogether by [[Illinois Constitution|constitutional amendment]]. In order for the measure to be passed, it must win approval of both the [[Illinois State Senate|State Senate]] and Illinois voters. If the proposal is approved in a statewide public vote, the office will remain intact for one final term following the 2014 election.<ref>[http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-quinn-guns-0412-20130412,0,4187302.story ''The Chicago Tribune,'' "House votes to eliminate lieutenant governor post," April 12, 2013]</ref> Quinn said he wanted “a people person,” to replace Simon, and ultimately settled on former Chicago public schools chief [[Paul Vallas]].<ref name=newera/>
  
The [[Illinois state executive official elections, 2014|2014]] electoral cycle will mark the first time in Illinois history that candidates for the offices of [[Governor of Illinois|governor]] and [[Lieutenant Governor of Illinois|lieutenant governor]] will run on a single ticket in the primary election phase. Spurred by the 2010 fiasco where the independently elected Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial nominee [[Scott Lee Cohen]] had to drop out of the race after being arrested on charges of steroid use and domestic battery, the law was promptly changed with the notion that the introduction of a dependent selection process will create a stronger perception, right off the bat, of the office's partnership with that of the governor. In theory, allowing governor hopefuls to hand pick their running mates for the primary will induce the campaigns to "better define their priorities for voters and cover more ground as election season gets underway."<ref name=newera>[http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/08/24/2014-governor-candidates-to-choose-running-mates/ ''CBS Local - Chicago,'' "2014 Governor Candidates To Choose Running Mates," August 24, 2013]</ref>
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The [[Illinois state executive official elections, 2014|2014]] electoral cycle marked the first time in Illinois history that candidates for the offices of [[Governor of Illinois|governor]] and [[Lieutenant Governor of Illinois|lieutenant governor]] ran on a single ticket in the primary election phase. Spurred by the 2010 election fiasco when Democratic nominee for lt. governor [[Scott Lee Cohen]] had to drop out of the race after being arrested on charges of steroid use and domestic battery, the new joint ticket rule was enacted to support the notion of a critical governor-lieutenant governor partnership. In theory, allowing governor hopefuls to hand pick their running mates for the primary would induce the campaigns to "better define their priorities for voters and cover more ground as election season gets underway."<ref name=newera>[http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/08/24/2014-governor-candidates-to-choose-running-mates/ ''CBS Local - Chicago,'' "2014 Governor Candidates To Choose Running Mates," August 24, 2013]</ref>
  
 
{{State trifecta status|state=Illinois|control=Democratic}} The biggest threat to Quinn winning re-election, then, was expected to have come courtesy of his fellow Democrats, namely [[Bill Daley|William "Bill" Daley]], a past U.S. Commerce Secretary and White House chief of staff and [[Attorney General of Illinois|attorney general]] [[Lisa Madigan]]. But by September 2013, Quinn had dodged both bullets: First, Madigan, who had been expected to enter the primary race, announced that she would instead seek [[Illinois attorney general election, 2014|re-election]] to her current post.<ref name=reelec14>[http://capitolfax.com/2013/07/15/this-just-in-lisa-madigan-announces-reelection-bid/ ''Capitol Fax,'' "This just in… Lisa Madigan announces re-election bid," July 15, 2013]</ref><ref>[http://www.governing.com/news/state/mct-william-daley-considering-bid-for-illinois-governor.html ''Governing,'' "William Daley Considering Bid for Illinois Governor," December 21, 2012]</ref><ref name=crains>[http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130611/NEWS02/130619969/bill-daley-files-paperwork-for-governor-run ''Chicagobusiness.com,'' "Daley files paperwork for governor run," June 10, 2013]</ref> After brief consideration,<ref name=dropout/> Daley, "a member of Chicago's first political family," for his relation to two of Chicago's longest-reigning mayors, abruptly withdrew his bid for the Democratic nomination after a promising first stretch.<ref name=crains/>  His departure marked a veritable coup for Quinn, whose bleak re-election prospects improved considerably in the absence of a strong primary challenge.<ref name=dropout14>[http://www.njherald.com/story/23448980/daley-abruptly-ends-race-for-illinois-governor ''New Jersey Herald,'' "Daley: Exit from race doesn't mean I couldn't win," September 17, 2013]</ref>
 
{{State trifecta status|state=Illinois|control=Democratic}} The biggest threat to Quinn winning re-election, then, was expected to have come courtesy of his fellow Democrats, namely [[Bill Daley|William "Bill" Daley]], a past U.S. Commerce Secretary and White House chief of staff and [[Attorney General of Illinois|attorney general]] [[Lisa Madigan]]. But by September 2013, Quinn had dodged both bullets: First, Madigan, who had been expected to enter the primary race, announced that she would instead seek [[Illinois attorney general election, 2014|re-election]] to her current post.<ref name=reelec14>[http://capitolfax.com/2013/07/15/this-just-in-lisa-madigan-announces-reelection-bid/ ''Capitol Fax,'' "This just in… Lisa Madigan announces re-election bid," July 15, 2013]</ref><ref>[http://www.governing.com/news/state/mct-william-daley-considering-bid-for-illinois-governor.html ''Governing,'' "William Daley Considering Bid for Illinois Governor," December 21, 2012]</ref><ref name=crains>[http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130611/NEWS02/130619969/bill-daley-files-paperwork-for-governor-run ''Chicagobusiness.com,'' "Daley files paperwork for governor run," June 10, 2013]</ref> After brief consideration,<ref name=dropout/> Daley, "a member of Chicago's first political family," for his relation to two of Chicago's longest-reigning mayors, abruptly withdrew his bid for the Democratic nomination after a promising first stretch.<ref name=crains/>  His departure marked a veritable coup for Quinn, whose bleak re-election prospects improved considerably in the absence of a strong primary challenge.<ref name=dropout14>[http://www.njherald.com/story/23448980/daley-abruptly-ends-race-for-illinois-governor ''New Jersey Herald,'' "Daley: Exit from race doesn't mean I couldn't win," September 17, 2013]</ref>
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Quinn is the fifth out of a total of forty-six previous Illinois lieutenant governors to have succeeded to the governorship mid-term. As governor, Quinn has emphasized improving the state government's ethical standards and protecting public-sector labor unions. His tenure thus far has been marred by steep, deeply unpopular budget cuts and tax increases stemming from long-term state debt, among other issues that have factored into his status among the least popular governors facing re-election in 2014.<ref>[http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/kevin-mcdermott/illinois-gov-quinn-nd-least-popular-incumbent-going-into/article_3e3564ca-aa7e-55a5-9f10-84c235081fe9.html ''St. Louis Today,'' "Illinois Gov. Quinn 2nd least popular incumbent going into 2014," April 9, 2013]</ref>
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===Primary review, cross-party vote phenomenon===
  
 
On Sept. 3, individuals aiming to qualify for a slot on the March 2014 primary ballot began gathering signatures. The filing period for major party primary candidates ended on December 2, 2013, with only one Democrat, [[Tio Hardiman]], filing to go up against Quinn. Candidates from the Republican end included state Sens. [[Bill Brady]] and [[Kirk Dillard]], [[Illinois Treasurer|state treasurer]] [[Dan Rutherford]] and venture capitalist [[Bruce Rauner]]. Early polls showed Rutherford as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but Rauner rocketed ahead of the pack by November 2013 and maintained a 15-point average lead up to the March primary, which he won.<ref>[http://capitolfax.com/2013/07/08/poll-shows-rauner-movement/ ''CapitolFax.com,'' "Capitol Fax/We Ask America Poll - Poll shows Rauner movement," July 8, 2013]</ref>
 
On Sept. 3, individuals aiming to qualify for a slot on the March 2014 primary ballot began gathering signatures. The filing period for major party primary candidates ended on December 2, 2013, with only one Democrat, [[Tio Hardiman]], filing to go up against Quinn. Candidates from the Republican end included state Sens. [[Bill Brady]] and [[Kirk Dillard]], [[Illinois Treasurer|state treasurer]] [[Dan Rutherford]] and venture capitalist [[Bruce Rauner]]. Early polls showed Rutherford as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but Rauner rocketed ahead of the pack by November 2013 and maintained a 15-point average lead up to the March primary, which he won.<ref>[http://capitolfax.com/2013/07/08/poll-shows-rauner-movement/ ''CapitolFax.com,'' "Capitol Fax/We Ask America Poll - Poll shows Rauner movement," July 8, 2013]</ref>
  
Quinn is the fifth out of a total of forty-six previous Illinois lieutenant governors to have succeeded to the governorship mid-term. As governor, Quinn has emphasized improving the state government's ethical standards and protecting public-sector labor unions. His tenure thus far has been marred by steep, deeply unpopular budget cuts and tax increases stemming from long-term state debt, among other issues that have factored into his status among the least popular governors facing re-election next year.<ref>[http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/kevin-mcdermott/illinois-gov-quinn-nd-least-popular-incumbent-going-into/article_3e3564ca-aa7e-55a5-9f10-84c235081fe9.html ''St. Louis Today,'' "Illinois Gov. Quinn 2nd least popular incumbent going into 2014," April 9, 2013]</ref>
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Unofficial results from the March 18 open primaries revealed some steep deviations from the vote spreads and totals recorded in past elections. Based on the breakdown of votes in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries provided by the ''Chicago Tribune'' on election night, Ballot Access News analyzed what appeared to be a spectacularly low turnout of Democratic voters (438,112 votes) in the party's albeit nominally contested primary and concluded that hundreds of thousands of Democratic voters had chosen the Republican ballot instead of their own.<ref>[http://elections.chicagotribune.com/results/#category/governor ''Chicago Tribune,'' "Election Calendar, Primary Results," last updated March 18, 2014]</ref> The mass cross-over by Democrats, Ballot Access News reported, was linked to one specific issue highlighted in this year's GOP governor's race: government employee unions. Most of the Democrats who decided to participate in the Republican primary in order to ensure Kirk Dillard, who has sided with the unions in the state senate, would lose to Bruce Rauner, who has promised to curtail union influence.<ref name=ballotnews>[http://www.ballot-access.org/2014/03/shockingly-low-turnout-in-illinois-democratic-primary-suggests-many-democrats-voted-in-republican-primary/ ''Ballot Access News,'' "Shockingly Low Turnout in Illinois Democratic Primary Suggests Many Democrats Voted in Republican Primary," March 20, 2014]</ref>  
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The last time more votes were cast in the Republican than the Democratic primary in Illinois was 1986. Historical election results indicate that there was not a spike in Republican votes, and this year's trend reversal was caused by a tremendous drop in Democratic gubernatorial primary votes cast; not since the 1940's have so few votes been cast in a Democratic gubernatorial primary in the state of Illinois.<ref name=ballotnews/>
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<noinclude>{{reflist}}[[Category:2014 SEO race background templates]]</noinclude>
 
<noinclude>{{reflist}}[[Category:2014 SEO race background templates]]</noinclude>

Revision as of 10:08, 24 March 2014

Race background

Current incumbent Pat Quinn, a Democrat who ascended from lieutenant governor to governor following Rod Blagojevich's 2009 impeachment, is facing serious concerns about his chances for re-election in 2014. Quinn ran for, and won, a full term in 2010 and is eligible for another four-year term. According to multiple outside ratings, Quinn is among the most vulnerable governors heading into the 2014 electoral cycle.[1]

Quinn's 2010 running-mate and first term incumbent Lt. Gov Sheila Simon (D) is also eligible for re-election, but she announced in February 2013 that she would retire the post at the end of her term. Simon said she wanted to seek a new office that would allow her to have a "greater impact," and later declared her candidacy for state comptroller.[2][3] Simon's thinly veiled swipe at the office's unsatisfactory "impact" potential was followed shortly thereafter by the Illinois House of Representatives' approval of a proposal seeking to eliminate the position of lieutenant governor altogether by constitutional amendment. In order for the measure to be passed, it must win approval of both the State Senate and Illinois voters. If the proposal is approved in a statewide public vote, the office will remain intact for one final term following the 2014 election.[4] Quinn said he wanted “a people person,” to replace Simon, and ultimately settled on former Chicago public schools chief Paul Vallas.[5]

The 2014 electoral cycle marked the first time in Illinois history that candidates for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor ran on a single ticket in the primary election phase. Spurred by the 2010 election fiasco when Democratic nominee for lt. governor Scott Lee Cohen had to drop out of the race after being arrested on charges of steroid use and domestic battery, the new joint ticket rule was enacted to support the notion of a critical governor-lieutenant governor partnership. In theory, allowing governor hopefuls to hand pick their running mates for the primary would induce the campaigns to "better define their priorities for voters and cover more ground as election season gets underway."[5]

As of December 2014, Illinois is one of 14 Democratic state government trifectas. The biggest threat to Quinn winning re-election, then, was expected to have come courtesy of his fellow Democrats, namely William "Bill" Daley, a past U.S. Commerce Secretary and White House chief of staff and attorney general Lisa Madigan. But by September 2013, Quinn had dodged both bullets: First, Madigan, who had been expected to enter the primary race, announced that she would instead seek re-election to her current post.[6][7][8] After brief consideration,[9] Daley, "a member of Chicago's first political family," for his relation to two of Chicago's longest-reigning mayors, abruptly withdrew his bid for the Democratic nomination after a promising first stretch.[8] His departure marked a veritable coup for Quinn, whose bleak re-election prospects improved considerably in the absence of a strong primary challenge.[10]

Quinn is the fifth out of a total of forty-six previous Illinois lieutenant governors to have succeeded to the governorship mid-term. As governor, Quinn has emphasized improving the state government's ethical standards and protecting public-sector labor unions. His tenure thus far has been marred by steep, deeply unpopular budget cuts and tax increases stemming from long-term state debt, among other issues that have factored into his status among the least popular governors facing re-election in 2014.[11]

Primary review, cross-party vote phenomenon

On Sept. 3, individuals aiming to qualify for a slot on the March 2014 primary ballot began gathering signatures. The filing period for major party primary candidates ended on December 2, 2013, with only one Democrat, Tio Hardiman, filing to go up against Quinn. Candidates from the Republican end included state Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard, state treasurer Dan Rutherford and venture capitalist Bruce Rauner. Early polls showed Rutherford as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but Rauner rocketed ahead of the pack by November 2013 and maintained a 15-point average lead up to the March primary, which he won.[12]

Unofficial results from the March 18 open primaries revealed some steep deviations from the vote spreads and totals recorded in past elections. Based on the breakdown of votes in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries provided by the Chicago Tribune on election night, Ballot Access News analyzed what appeared to be a spectacularly low turnout of Democratic voters (438,112 votes) in the party's albeit nominally contested primary and concluded that hundreds of thousands of Democratic voters had chosen the Republican ballot instead of their own.[13] The mass cross-over by Democrats, Ballot Access News reported, was linked to one specific issue highlighted in this year's GOP governor's race: government employee unions. Most of the Democrats who decided to participate in the Republican primary in order to ensure Kirk Dillard, who has sided with the unions in the state senate, would lose to Bruce Rauner, who has promised to curtail union influence.[14]

The last time more votes were cast in the Republican than the Democratic primary in Illinois was 1986. Historical election results indicate that there was not a spike in Republican votes, and this year's trend reversal was caused by a tremendous drop in Democratic gubernatorial primary votes cast; not since the 1940's have so few votes been cast in a Democratic gubernatorial primary in the state of Illinois.[14]