Texas gubernatorial election, 2010

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Breaking news

In the Texas gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, Republican incumbent Rick Perry defeated Democrat Bill White.

In the March 2, 2010 primary elections, Bill White bested his only serious competition, Farouk Shami, while Rick Perry dismissed U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, his major challenger.

November 2, 2010 general election results

Certified results were due on December 2, 2010 and were canvassed by the state legislature in January 2011.[1]

Governor of Texas, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRick Perry Incumbent 55% 2,737,481
     Democratic Bill White 42.3% 2,106,395
     Libertarian Kathie Glass 2.2% 109,211
     Green Deb Shafto 0.4% 19,516
     Write-In Andy Barron 0.1% 7,267
Total Votes 4,979,870
Election Results Via: Texas Secretary of State

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Rick Perry took the oath of office for his third full term on January 18, 2011.

Primaries

Democratic

The Democratic primary was dominated by popular Houston Mayor Bill White from the start. His only serious opposition came from Houston businessman Farouk Shami. Perennial candidate Richard "Kinky" Friedman withdrew his candidacy and instead decided to run for Agriculture Commissioner. Friedman also soon encouraged Shami to withdraw and endorse White to increase Democratic odds in the general election.[2] Tom Schieffer, previously seen as White's biggest challenge in the primary, withdrew from the race and endorsed White[3].

2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary[4]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Bill White (D) 76.0%
Farouk Shami (D) 12.8%
Felix Alvarado (D) 5.0%
Alma Alguado (D) 2.9%
Clement E. Glenn (D) 1.4%
Bill Dear (D) 1.0%
Star Locke (D) 0.9%
Total votes 679,877

Republican

In the 2010 Texas gubernatorial race the Republican primary garnered nearly overwhelming news and attention. Texas leans strongly red and Democratic candidates for both statewide and national office face steep uphill battles from the outset. The showdown between incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry and challenger Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison netted virtually all eyes. Also vying was longshot candidate Debra Medina who, following a suit against the state GOP, saw increasing support in online social networks such as Facebook and Twitter. Medina was also state coordinator for Campaign for Liberty, a Libertarian group founded by Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX), putting a large network of activists behind her. Secessionist candidate Larry Kilgore withdrew from the race and endorsed Medina.

Still, the GOP primary came down to a face-off between Hutchison and Perry, with the latter enjoying a consistent edge in polls.[5] Perry's double-digit wins in polls translated into a real win on primary day, when he took 51% - enough to preclude any runoff. The third player in the primary race, Debra Medina, won just under one-fifth of the votes, enough that she may have been instrumental in guaranteeing Perry need not worry about a runoff.

2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary[6]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Rick Perry (R) 51.1%
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 30.3%
Debra Medina (R) 18.6%
Total votes 1,484,111

Libertarian

Nationwide polls signaled dissatisfaction with Congress and disillusionment with the current Administration. At the grassroots, the Tea Party movement translated this discontent into a real phenomena in the campaign season. While many states had Libertarian candidates on the ballot, Texas really was one to watch. In 2008, William Strange III, running as a Libertarian for a seat on the Court of Appeals, won 18.1% of the vote, far and away meeting the 5% threshold to guarantee his party a spot on the 2010 ballot. Following Texas law, the Libertarians, as a third party, held a nominating convention. Taking place in Austin in early June, Kathie Glass defeated Jeff Daiell with 73% of the vote.[7]

Daiell had previously sought the office, running all the way back to 1990, when he garnered 129,000 votes. Additionally, in the 2006 gubernatorial cycle, Libertarian nominee James Werner was guaranteed a ballot spot due to the party's showing in 2004. Even if trends in the 2010 didn't lead anyone to call the race for the Libertarians, the strength and organization of the party argued for factoring them into vote forecasts into the future. Indeed Miss Glass promised, the "most high-profile, most vigorous" campaign Texas Libertarians had seen when she took the stage at her party's convention.

Nine Libertarians held elected office in Texas, and none other than former Democratic and independent candidate Kinky Friedman delivered the keynote address[8], in which he directly called out the nominees for the two major parties, saying, "Rick Perry and Bill White — it's like the lesser of two boll weevils. This is the classic choice between paper or plastic. I think the day has come for Libertarians"[9]

2010 Race for Governor - Libertarian Convention
Candidates Percentage
Jeff Daiell (L) 25.0%
Green check mark.jpg Kathie Glass (L) 73.0%
Steve Nichols (L)[10] 2.0%

Race ratings

2010 Race Rankings Texas
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[11] Leans Republican
Congressional Quarterly Politics[12] Leans Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Likely Republican
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[14] Leans Republican
The Rothenberg Political Report[15] Leans Republican
Overall Call Republican

Changes

7. Cook Political Report moved race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Republican" on October 29th.

6. Rothenberg moved race from "Toss-up Tilting Republican" to "Lean Republican" on October 28th.

5. Larry J. Sabato moved race from "Lean Republican" to "Likely Republican" on October 28th.

4. Rasmussen Reports changes rating from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican" following October 21st polling.

3. Rasmussen moved race from "Lean Republican" to "Solid Republican" following October 7th polling.

2. Rothenberg moved race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up Tilting Republican" in its October 1st ratings.

1. Rasmussen Reports changed rating from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican" following September 22nd polling.

Polling

General election polling

Blum & Webprin

2010 Race for Texas Governor – Wilson Research Strategies
Date Reported Perry (R) White (D) Glass (L) Shafto (I)
September 15-22, 2010[16] 46% 39% 4% 1%
(Sample) n=692 MoE=+/- 3.9% p=0.05

Wilson Research Strategies

2010 Race for Texas Governor – Wilson Research Strategies
Date Reported Perry (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
August 29-30, 2010[17] 50% 38% 1% 11%
(Sample) n=1,001 MoE=+/- 3.1% p=0.05

Rasmussen Reports

2010 Race for Texas Governor - Rasmussen Reports[18]
Date Reported Perry (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
October 21, 2010[19] 51% 42% 2% 5%
October 6, 2010[20] 53% 42% 2% 4%
September 22, 2010[21] 48% 42% 3% 6%
August 22, 2010[22] 49% 41% 3% 7%
July 13, 2010[23] 50% 41% 2% 7%
June 16, 2010[24] 48% 40% 5% 8%
May 13, 2010[25] 51% 38% 4% 6%
April 14, 2010[26] 48% 44% 2% 6%
March 3, 2010[27] 49% 43% 3% 6%
(Sample)[28] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05

Primary election polling

2010 Race for Texas Governor - Rasmussen Reports[29]
Date Reported Perry (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
February 22, 2010[30] 47% 41% 5% 7%
Hutchison (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
February 22, 2010[31] 47% 38% 8% 7%
Medina (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
February 22, 2010[32] 37% 47% 7% 9%
Date Reported Perry (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
February 1, 2010[33] 48% 39% 5% 8%
Hutchison (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
February 1, 2010[34] 49% 36% 7% 7%
Medina (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
February 1, 2010[35] 41% 38% 6% 16%
Date Reported Perry (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
January 17, 2010[36] 50% 40% 4% 6%
Hutchison (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
January 17, 2010[37] 52% 37% 4% 8%
Medina (R) White (D) Other Don't Know
January 17, 2010[38] 38% 44% 5% 13%
(Sample)[39] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who Made It? Texas Governor[40]
Nominee Affiliation
Bill White Democrat
Rick Perry Republican
Deb Shafto Green
Katherine Youngblood "Kathie" Glass Libertarian
Amanda Ulman Socialist Workers (write-in)
Andy Baron (write-in)
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who were officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Democratic

  • Alma Alguado
  • Felix Alvarado
  • Bill Dear
  • Clement E. Glenn
  • Star Locke
  • Farouk Shami
  • Bill White

Libertarian

  • Jeff Daiell, a businessman hailing from Houston, lost at the Libertarian's June 12th convention.
  • Attorney Kathie Glass, also of Houston, won a decisive 73% of the ballot at the convention.

Republican

Third Party

  • Fran Cavanaugh, a businessman and non-profit executive, identified as a conservative leader during his campaign
  • Hank Gilbert switched to running as a Democrat for Agriculture Commissioner, running on his background in ranching and agricultural education.
  • Kenneth Griffin used YouTube as a platform for many of his campaign messages.[41]
  • Kevin Still, an Army veteran, ran as a representative of middle class Texans who he argued were not being served by the major parties.

Withdrawn

  • Larry Kilgore (R) (endorsed Debra Medina) had aligned his gubernatorial bid with the idea of Texas secesstion.[42]
  • Tom Schieffer (D) (endorsed Bill White)
  • Richard "Kinky" Friedman (D),a writer and political satirist with national name recognition has long been active in Texas politics. In 2006 he ran as an Independent for the governorship. 2010 saw him campaign first for the gubernatorial nomination and then for the state's Agriculture Commissioner as a Democrat, though he more recently addressed a convention of Libertarians.

Key endorsements

Rick Perry

  • National Rifle Association[43]

Campaign ads

Rick Perry rolled out his campaign's first ad of the fall season in mid-September, and immediately got blowback on the theme. In the spot, Perry walked past several stores in Austin's South Congress neighborhood while touting Texas economy and unemployment figures. However, at least two of the featured stores' owners came forward to say they never gave the campaign permission to film their shops and that they would not be voting for Perry.[44]

The ad began airing on Sunday, September 12, 2010 and, while store owners confirmed the campaign's cameramen identified themselves as working for the Perry campaign and got permission to take footage of the storefronts, at least one owner claimed she was not told the footage was for a campaign ad.

Meanwhile, the ad Bill White was running addressed immigration enforcement and took Rick Perry to task for failing to secure more federal money to assist Texas in handling immigration issues.


Bill White for Governor Border Security ad.

Rick Perry for Governor Texas: Open for Business ad.

Rick Perry for Governor Border ad.

Democratic Governor's Association

Texas may be a long-time GOP stronghold, more disposed to send its Republican governors to Washington than to see them lose to Democratic challengers. However, the Democratic Governor's Association felt it could change that in 2010, and, on top of $2 million already spent in support of candidate Bill White, announced a fresh media buy to air in Dallas in the last week of September.[45] The attack ads were thought to cost the DGA $650,000 to $700,000 a week.

Polls at the time showed White edging closer to incumbent Republican Rick Perry and pegged Dallas as the standout urban center where Perry still easily beat White. The ad painted White as having been in politics too long and having fallen out of touch with Texans.

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[46][47]
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 68.24%
Garry Mauro (D) 31.18%
Lester Turnlington, Jr. (L) 0.55%
Susan Solar (write-in) 0.03%
Total votes 3,738,078

2002 Gubernatorial Results[48][49]
Candidates Percentage
Rick Perry (R) 57.81%
Tony Sanchez (D) 39.96%
Jeff Daiell (L) 1.47%
Rahul Mahajan (G) 0.71%
(write-in) 0.06%
Total votes 4,553,979

2006 Gubernatorial Results[50][51]
Candidates Percentage
Rick Perry (R) 39.03%
Chris Bell (D) 29.79%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (IND) 18.13%
Richard 'Kinky' Friedman (IND) 12.43%
James Werner (L) 0.61%
(write-in) 0.02%
Total votes 4,399,068

Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 59.30%
Al Gore (D) 37.98%

2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 61.09%
John Kerry (D) 38.22%

2008 Presidential Results[52]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 55.39%
Barack Obama (D) 43.63%

1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 40.56%
Bill Clinton (D) 37.08%

1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 48.76%
Bill Clinton (D) 43.83%

See also

External links

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Candidate pages

References

  1. Texas Secretary of State, "Race Summary Report: 2010 General Election (Gov & Lt. Gov canvassed Jan. by Leg.)," updated November 3, 2010 at 12:15, accessed November 15, 2010 and December 23, 2010
  2. Kinky Friedman withdraws from Texas governor's race
  3. Schieffer's Out
  4. Texas Office of the Secretary of State, "2010 Democratic Party Primary Election," March 2, 2010
  5. Real Clear Politics, "Texas Republican Primary," accessed July 17, 2010
  6. Texas Office of the Secretary of State, "2010 Republican Party Primary Election," March 2, 2010
  7. The Texas Statesman, "Texas Libertarians to pick candidate for governor," June 10, 2010
  8. The Texas Tribune, "Friedman Tells Libertarians He "Is One" in Spirit," June 13, 2010
  9. The Texas Statesman, "Libertarians, convening in Austin, pick candidates for November," June 13, 2010
  10. [Mr. Nichols withdrew moments before balloting began and made a last-minute endorsement of Kathie Glass]
  11. The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  12. CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  13. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  14. Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  15. Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  16. Dallas Morning News, “Poll finds Perry has the numbers, but White has a shot”, September 2, 2010
  17. Wilson Research Strategies, “Wilson Research Strategies”, September 2, 2010
  18. Rasmussen Reports, “Toplines: State Profiles: Texas”, accessed August 30, 2010
  19. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Texas Governor: Perry (R) Remains Out Front”, October 23, 2010
  20. Rasmussen Reports, “Perry (R) Opens Double-Digit Lead Over White (D)”, October 7, 2010
  21. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Texas Governor: Perry (R) Continues To Hold Small Lead”, September 24, 2010
  22. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Texas Governor: Perry (R) 49%, White (D) 41%”, August 23, 2010
  23. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: Perry (R) 50%, White (D) 41%”, July 15, 2010
  24. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: Perry (R) 48%, White (D) 40%”, June 18, 2010
  25. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: Perry 51%, White 38%”, May 18, 2010
  26. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: Perry 48%, White 44%”, April 19, 2010
  27. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: Perry 49%, White 43%”, March 4, 2010
  28. [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  29. Rasmussen Reports, “State Profiles: Texas”, accessed August 30, 2010
  30. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: Perry, Hutchison Still Lead White”, February 23, 2010
  31. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: Perry, Hutchison Still Lead White”, February 23, 2010
  32. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: Perry, Hutchison Still Lead White”, February 23, 2010
  33. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: White Trails Perry, Hutchison – And Medina”, February 3, 2010
  34. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: White Trails Perry, Hutchison – And Medina”, February 3, 2010
  35. Rasmussen Reports, “Texas Governor: White Trails Perry, Hutchison – And Medina”, February 3, 2010
  36. Rasmussen Reports, “2010 Texas Governor: White (D) Trails Perry, Hutchison”, January 19, 2010
  37. Rasmussen Reports, “2010 Texas Governor: White (D) Trails Perry, Hutchison”, January 19, 2010
  38. Rasmussen Reports, “2010 Texas Governor: White (D) Trails Perry, Hutchison”, January 19, 2010
  39. [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  40. Texas Elections Division “2010 November General Election Candidates, accessed September 19, 2010
  41. YouTube, "Texas Governor of 2010," accessed July 17, 2010
  42. FaceBook, "Larry Kilgore for Gov - Texas Secession," viewed July 17,, 2010
  43. McClatchy, "NRA endorses Perry for Texas governor," September 17, 2010
  44. The Wall Street Journal, "Perry’s Texas Ad Misstep," September 13, 2010
  45. Washington Post, "Democrats go after Gov. Perry in Texas," September 28, 2010
  46. US Election Atlas, “1998 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Texas”
  47. Texas Secretary of State, “Office of the Secretary of State 1998 General Election11/3/1998 Governor”
  48. US Election Atlas, “2002 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Texas”
  49. / Texas Secretary of State, “Governor Official Returns”
  50. US Election Atlas, “2006 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Texas”
  51. Texas Secretary of State, “Office of the Secretary of State 2006 General Election11/2/2006 Governor”
  52. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010