U.S. Senate election, Missouri, 2010

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United States Senate
U.S. Senate Seal.png
Elections, 2010
Primary election dates, 2010
The Missouri United States Senate election of 2010 was held on November 2, 2010 following a primary election on August 3, 2010.

March 30 was the deadline for filing nominating signatures.

Background

Christopher Samuel "Kit" Bond is the senior Republican United States Senator from Missouri. He was first elected to the position in 1986 having defeated Lieutenant Governor of Missouri Harriett Woods in the general election and was subsequently re-elected in 1992, 1998, and 2004. Bond declared on January 8, 2009, that he would not seek a fifth term in office in November 2010. [1]

Qualifications

Standard qualifications necessary in order to be considered for a United States Senate position include being at least 30 years of age, a United States citizen for at least nine years prior to the date of the election, and, in this instance, an inhabitant of Missouri when elected.

The state of Missouri requires that any individual who desires to file as a candidate for election to a public office must file a Candidate's Affidavit of Tax Payments with the Missouri Department of Revenue. In signing the Affidavit, the candidate agrees that he/she is not delinquent in the payment of any state income taxes, personal property taxes, real property taxes on his/her place of residence as stated on the declaration of candidacy, and that he/she is not a past or present corporate officer of any motor vehicle and driver license office that owes any taxes to the state. The Affidavit must be signed before a notary and be notarized. A copy of the Affidavit must then be attached to the declaration of candidacy filed with the Secretary of State.

In order to be considered an independent candidate on the November 2010 election ballot, the individual must collect the signatures of at least 10,000 registered Missouri voters.

August 3, 2010 primaries

Donkey symbol.png Democratic primary

Candidates

Electoral results

2010 Race for United States Senate - Democratic Primary [3]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Robin Carnahan (D) 83.8%
Richard Charles Tolbert (D) 10.6%
Francis J. Vangeli (D) 5.5%
Total votes 315,776

Gop logo2.jpg Republican primary

Roy Blunt

Candidates

  • Roy Blunt, a member of the United States House of Representatives representing the 7th Congressional District and father of Matt Blunt, Governor of Missouri from 2005 to 2009, made his entry into the race official on February 19, 2009. [4]
  • Charles Allen "Chuck" Purgason, a member of the Missouri State Senate representing the 33rd District, launched his campaign on July 23, 2009. [5]
  • Davis Ronald Conway, president of Affinity Electrical Contracting
  • Ronald Beller
  • Antonio Eugene "Tony" Laszacs
  • Hector Maldonado, an Iraq and Afghanistan combat Veteran [6]
  • Kristi Nichols
  • Robert L. "Bob" Praprotnik, a St. Louis architecture firm owner [7]
  • James H. Schmidt, a 25-year veteran police officer [8]
  • Deborah Solomon, a substitute teacher for the Fort Osage School District [9]
  • Michael Alan "Mike" Vontz

Drop outs

  • Mark Stephen Memoly, President of ATB Truck Sales, LLC (Not listed by recognized election authorities)
  • Though tapped by former United States Senator from Missouri, John Danforth, Thomas "Tom" Schweich decides against running for the United States Senate and endorsed Roy Blunt. [10] [11]

Electoral results

2010 Race for United States Senate - Republican Primary [3]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Roy Blunt (R) 70.9%
Chuck Purgason (R) 13.1%
Kristi Nichols (R) 7.0%
Deborah Solomon (R) 2.6%
Hector Maldonado (R) 1.5%
Davis Conway (R) 1.5%
R. L. Praprotnik (R) 1.4%
Tony Laszacs (R) 1.1%
Mike Vontz (R) 0.9%
Total votes 577,602

Libertarian-Party-Logo.png Libertarian primary

Candidates

  • Jonathan Dine
  • Cisse Spragins

Electoral results

2010 Race for United States Senate - Libertarian Primary [3]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Jonathan Dine (L) 58.5%
Cisse Spragins (L) 41.5%
Total votes 3,507

Constitution party logo.thumbnail.gif Constitution Party primary

Candidates

  • Jerry Garth Beck
  • Joseph "Joe" Martellaro
  • Michael Arthur "Mike" Simmons, Jr.

Electoral results

2010 Race for United States Senate - Constitution Party Primary [3]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Jerry Beck (CST) 43.4%
Mike Simmons (CST) 29.4%
Joe Martellaro (CST) 27.2%
Total votes 1,885

Other candidates

  • Midge Potts, a transgender peace activist and Navy veteran [12] (Progressive Party of Missouri)
  • Glenn Miller (White Patriot Party)

General Election campaign

Commercials

Roy Blunt

Robin Carnahan

Endorsements

Roy Blunt

Robin Carnahan

Polling data

Rasmussen poll

The favorable/unfavorable ratings of the two major party candidates are very telling in describing the state of the senatorial election contest in the eyes of those surveyed. While Carnahan's favorable/unfavorable ratings are fairly even at 52-42 (with six percent undecided), Blunt enjoys a bit more ample ratio of 57-33 and ten percent undecided in their opinion of the candidate.

Rasmussen Poll - September 21, 2009 [26]
Candidates Percentage
Robin Carnahan (D) 46%
Roy Blunt (R) 46%
Some other candidate 2%
Undecided 5%
Total voters 500

Rasmussen 2nd poll

The second telephone survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports suggests that certain political issues, specifically the state of the nation's economy and health care reform, will likely prove to be real stumbling blocks for Carnahan, just as they are expected to be for most other Democratic candidates running for public office in the 2010 mid-term elections. Of the 500 Missouri voters who responded to the interview, "just 37% of [them] favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, but 62% oppose it." [27] In terms of the economy, only twenty-six percent of interviewees believe it is getting better as a result of the policies enacted by the Democratic leadership in Washington, as opposed to forty-nine percent who argue it is getting worse. Additionally, the approval of Missouri voters on how the president is performing in his duties might also be a burgeoning factor as forty-one percent of those interviewed approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 58% disapprove.

Rasmussen Poll - January 19, 2010 [27]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Roy Blunt (R) 49%
Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
Some other candidate 3%
Undecided 5%
Total voters 500

Rasmussen 3rd poll

The third telephone survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports produced nearly identical results to the one published a month ago. The key difference was a slight dip, about one percentage point, in the number of respondents who stated they planned on voting for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan in the United States Senate election in November. Carnahan's campaign should take some comfort knowing that Blunt's number stayed the same and that only increase that was evident was in the undecided category. What should be a cause for concern is the Democratic candidate's favorability rating. While admittedly Blunt's favorability among Missouri voters has decreased slightly since September 2009, down three percent, he still maintains an ample ratio of 54-40 with six percent undecided; Carnahan's favorable/unfavorable ratings, however, have completely leveled off with Missourians expressing a slightly more unfavorable view of her then five months ago, at a ratio of 44-45 (with six percent undecided).

Rasmussen Poll - February 10, 2010 [28]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Roy Blunt (R) 49%
Robin Carnahan (D) 42%
Some other candidate 3%
Undecided 6%
Total voters 500

Rasmussen 4th poll

While support among Missouri voters for either Rep. Blunt or Secretary of State Carnahan in the United States Senate race fell slightly, both candidates can take a little comfort from the fourth telephone survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports that shows a slight rise in the favorability rating for each of the politicians. Blunt's favorability among Missourians increased two percent to an ample ratio of 56-37 with seven percent undecided; Carnahan's favorable/unfavorable ratings, while up, have remained leveled off with Missourians expressing a slightly more unfavorable view of her at a ratio of 47-48 (with six percent undecided).

Rasmussen Poll - March 9, 2010 [29]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Roy Blunt (R) 47%
Robin Carnahan (D) 41%
Some other candidate 4%
Undecided 8%
Total voters 500

Public Policy poll

Public Policy Polling (PPP) Poll - March 27-28, 2010 [30]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Roy Blunt (R) 45%
Robin Carnahan (D) 41%
Undecided 13%
Total voters 495

Rasmussen 5th poll

Rasmussen Poll - March 9, 2010 [31]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Roy Blunt (R) 48%
Robin Carnahan (D) 42%
Some other candidate 4%
Undecided 8%
Total voters 500

Spending

Politico named Robin Carnahan a 4th Quarter Loser in their analysis of the fundraising data for the 2010 elections. Although admitting her senatorial campaign has raised a respectable $868,000 thus far, this marked the first time since she announced her bid for the United States Senate in February 2009 that she raised less then $1 million in a quarter. Additionally, Carnahan lags far behind her likely Republican opponent, Roy Blunt, who at that time had raised $1.34 million in political contributions. [32]

Carnahan narrowed the gap in the 1st Quarter of 2010, however, raising $1.5 million compared to the $1.3 million for her Republican opponent. As it stands, Roy Blunt "has nearly $600,000 more to spend with the election getting much closer." [33]

Controversies

ACORN

See also: Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now

In October 2009, the Missouri Republican Party launched a website designed to expose the 'cozy' relationship between the Missouri Secretary of State and the embattled liberal political organization, ACORN.

Under President George W. Bush, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed charges against Carnahan and the state of Missouri in a lawsuit related to the National Voter Registration Act, which charged that ineligible voters within the state were not properly pursued; nearly identical charges were filed in Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Maine, New Jersey, and New York. According to the Heritage Foundation, the Justice Department "pursued the lawsuit successfully all the way to the Court of Appeals, but a month after Carnahan announced her run for the Senate, the lawsuit was dropped by Obama-Holder." [34]

The Republican Party of Missouri has argued that Carnahan ordered the St. Louis Board of Elections to approve more than 5,000 questionable registrations submitted by ACORN in 2006 and that her unwavering support for the embattled liberal organization has continued to this day. It was recently discovered that in the report she issued on the 2008 elections, "she failed to mention ACORN’s organized effort to commit voter fraud across the state by submitting thousands of fraudulent voter registrations to county election boards in Missouri." [35] Far more revealing, however, was ACORN's own proclamation that Carnahan had been “helpful” in its lawsuit against the state of Missouri—a lawsuit that ended after the state agreed to pay ACORN $450,000. Carnahan has had numerous contacts with ACORN, including meetings in her own officer, between 2007 and 2009, despite never having been named in the lawsuit against the state. [36]

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that the Missouri Secretary of State did nearly everything in her power to omit her involvement in the lawsuit, at least publicly. An email message from Brian Mellor of Project Vote, the voter registration arm of ACORN, was sent to Barbara Wood, senior counsel for Carnahan's office, on on October 9, 2008. The content of the message merely provides contact information for attorney Richard Cairns, one of the lawyers representing ACORN in their suit against the state of Missouri. Five days following this email exchange, Cairns filed a brief opposing a request made by the St. Louis Board of Elections to include Robin Carnahan in the suit; the reasoning behind her inclusion in the suit was that "coordination of the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) was the responsibility of Robin Carnahan, and she was necessary to enforce the rules asked for in the ACORN suit." [37]

America Votes

America Votes, "established by the 'three families' of George Soros, Peter Lewis, and Marion Sandler to coordinate various get-out-the-vote drives during the 2004 election," [38] is a 527 political action committee that wields "a nationwide network of activist groups whose agendas are ideologically Left." [39] Though citing nonpartisan goals such as increasing voter registration and participation in electoral politics in public press releases, behind the scenes these get-out-the-vote efforts specifically targets demographic groups likely to vote Democratic, including working women, young adults, and ethnic minorities. Coalition members include some of the more embattled left-wing political organizations in the country, including ACORN, Democracy for America, EMILY's List, League of Conservation Voters, MoveOn.org Political Action, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, SEIU, and the Sierra Club.

There are at least two known individuals with links to America Votes that have figured prominently in Robin Carnahan's political career, either during her time as Missouri Secretary of State or in the course of her Senatorial campaign. Paula Hodges is the political director of the Missouri branch for America Votes. Prior to this she served as deputy director of policy and administration in the Missouri Secretary of State office under Carnahan. This alteration in employment is significant "because outside groups have funneled an unprecedented amount of money into attack ads on Roy Blunt's Senate campaign," [40] all coordinated under the direction of America Votes.

Carnahan's Chief of Staff, Mindy Mazur, joined up with the left-leaning political action committee as its Missouri State Director. The League of Conservation Voters, under Mazur's supervision, ran attack television advertisements against not only Blue Dog Democrats Mike Ross and John Barrow, but also Carnahan's soon-to-be Senatorial opponent, Roy Blunt. This allowed Carnahan to coordinate hundreds of thousands of dollars to attack Blunt outside his own district without getting directly involved. Mazur was shortly thereafter 'reassigned' as campaign manager for the Robin Carnahan for Senate campaign. [41]

Mazur's name was also present in a document written by the Common Cause Education Foundation called Voting In 2008: 10 Swing States. The purpose of the one hundred and eight page report was to highlight ten states that might vote for Democrats and would need some rule changes in the way they voted so to "increase the chances of Democratic victory." [42] Recommendations included pushing for voter reform measures such as those that allowed those aged 16 and 17 years old to register to vote in addition to the removal of barriers to registration and voting for citizens with felony convictions.

On February 19, 2010, Robin Carnahan traveled to Seattle, Washington for a fundraiser sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters. [43] The LCV has been quite vocal in their chastisement of Blunt's opposition to the Cap-and-Trade/Tax legislation. Critics of the ecological measure, however, have argued that "members [of Congress] who vote for this climate bill are voting for what is likely to be the biggest tax in American history." [44]

SEIU

See also: Service Employees International Union

As of early-February 2010, Carnahan is one of seventeen candidates seeking election or re-election to the United States Senate who have received monetary campaign contributions from SEIU. Thus far, Carnahan has taken in $5,000 from the labor union. [45]

Streisand donation

With three months remaining until the Missouri primary election, Roy Blunt, the presumed Republican nominee for the United States Senate, has been quick to label Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan "a liberal who will be a rubber stamp for Obama." [46] The State GOP underscored that statement by attacking her acceptance of a $1,000 political donation from actress/singer Barbra Streisand, who the party labeled the "quintessential Hollywood liberal." [47] Lloyd Smith, executive director of the Missouri Republican Party, joked that “Hollywood liberal Barbra Streisand finally found someone who shares her radical views — and that someone is Robin Carnahan.” [46]

Tracker shoving allegation

On Saturday, August 7, 2010, Bill Skaggs, Kansas City Councilman and Mayor Pro Tem, was recorded on video shoving a campaign tracker covering United States Senate candidate Robin Carnahan in a parking lot just prior to entering the Clay County Democratic Headquarters where she speaking. Skaggs, a staunch supporter of Carnahan, appears in a video to shove a cameraman without provocation and then threatens to "knock the [explicative] out of you, boy.” [48] [49]

Shortly after the local media started covering the story, Skaggs, in response, issued an apology, but only for his use of foul language and not for the actual act of shoving the campaign tracker. He said, "I do regret cussing. Vulgarity isn't usually part of my language but seeing this tracker behave in such a manner and acting like a bully just didn't sit right with me." [50] However, judging by the video that despite its limited length, there appears to be no indication that the individual was doing anything that provoked Skaggs to act the way he did. Speaking later to the Kansas City Star, he added further that he'd "do the same to any bureaucrat acting that way." [51] [52]

The Missouri GOP, unsatisfied with Skaggs's lack of apology, called upon Carnahan's campaign to condemn the councilman's actions, believing there is "absolutely no excuse for threats or intimidation from a campaign or its supporters—especially when the assailant is an elected official." [51] Not wanting to deal with the issue of bad publicity in the midst of the start up to her general election campaign, Carnahan's camp issued a statement contending that "Robin does not condone this type of unacceptable behavior and it is a distraction from the real issues that matter in this campaign.” [53]

External links

General Election candidates

Missouri

Former candidates

References

  1. United Press International "Sen. Kit Bond of Mo. announces retirement" 8 Jan. 2009
  2. AMERICA Blog "Robin Carnahan is running for Senate in Missouri" 3 Feb. 2009
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 State of Missouri - Unofficial Results 2010 Primary Election
  4. FOX News "Rep. Roy Blunt to Run for Senate in 2010" 18 Feb. 2009
  5. Roll Call "Missouri: Purgason to Launch Uphill Senate Bid Today" 23 July, 2009
  6. Kansas City Star "Hector Maldonado files for US Senate, To Begin Tour" 24 Feb. 2010
  7. Columbia Missourian "St. Louis business owner Robert Praprotnik declares Senate candidacy" 6 Feb. 2010
  8. Kansas City Star "Police Officer Files for U.S. Senate Primary in Missouri" 24 Feb. 2010
  9. The Examiner "Deborah Solomon running for U.S. Senate" 18 Dec. 2009
  10. St. Louis Today "Danforth among those encouraging a Schweich Senate bid" 11 May, 2009
  11. KSDK Channel 5 "Schweich won't enter 2010 Missouri Senate race" 11 June, 2009
  12. KY3 News "Transgendered Congressional candidate may be state's first" 4 Oct. 2007
  13. Roy Blunt for Senate 2010 "Coalition of Missouri State Senators Supporting Roy Blunt for U.S. Senate" 15 May, 2009
  14. Sun Herald "FRC Action PAC Endorses Roy Blunt for U.S. Senate" 10 April, 2010
  15. 15.0 15.1 Catherine Favazza "Former Sen. Jim Talent to Endorse Roy Blunt for Senate" 19 June, 2009
  16. Missourians United for Life "Missourians United for Life Endorses Roy Blunt for United States Senate" 30 June, 2009
  17. GOP 12 "Romney unveils six new endorsements" 26 March, 2010
  18. KSDK Channel 5 "Roy Blunt gets GOP endorsement in 2010 Senate bid" June 2009
  19. Red State "RedState Endorses Roy Blunt for Missouri" 26 Aug. 2009
  20. Blog CCP "CCP Endorses Robin Carnahan for US Senate" 21 May, 2009
  21. Council for a Livable World - Endorsed for U.S. Senate by Council for a Livable World Candidate Fund
  22. Life News "Missouri Abortion Advocate Robin Carnahan gets Pro-Abortion Senate Support" 5 Feb. 2009
  23. Kansas City Star "Carnahan picks up Teamster endorsement, then dodges card-check questions" 17 April, 2009
  24. St. Louis Beacon "Carnahan attracts key labor endorsement -- and bus opposition" 17 Feb. 2009
  25. Missouri Sierra Club "The Missouri Sierra Club Endorses Robin Carnahan" 1 April, 2010
  26. Rasmussen Reports "Missouri State Survey of 500 Likely Voters" 21 Sept. 2009
  27. 27.0 27.1 Rasmussen Reports "2010 Missouri Senate: Blunt (R) 49%, Carnahan (D) 43%" 21 Jan. 2010
  28. Rasmussen Reports "2010 Missouri Senate" 10 Feb. 2010
  29. Rasmussen Reports "2010 Missouri Senate" 9 March, 2010
  30. Public Policy Polling "Blunt moves ahead in Missouri" 30 March, 2010
  31. Rasmussen Reports "2010 Missouri Senate" 9 March, 2010
  32. Politico "4th-quarter totals offer 2010 clues" 2 Feb. 2010
  33. Bungalow Bill's Conservative Wisdom "Robin Carnahan's Out of State Trips Helping to Close Money Gap Between her and Blunt" 21 April, 2010
  34. YouTube video - Questions Raised About Robin Carnahan's implementation of election law in Missouri
  35. Missouri Republican Party "Robin Carnahan ally ACORN in serious trouble" 15 Sept. 2009
  36. Robin Carnahan’s Involvement in ACORN Lawsuit
  37. 24th State "Lawyer For Robin Carnahan Contacted ACORN Lawyers Suing Missouri" 10 March, 2010
  38. The Argument: Inside the Battle to Remake Democratic Politics
  39. Discover the Network - America Votes
  40. 24th State "Former Robin Carnahan Employees Coordinate Attack Ads On Roy Blunt" 26 Jan. 2010
  41. 24th State "Mindy Mazur Ran America Votes During Blunt Attack Ad Campaign" 27 Jan. 2010
  42. 24th State "Mindy Mazur And Robin Carnahan Have Plans For Finding New Voters" 14 May, 2010
  43. National Republican Senatorial Committee "Robin Carnahan Finally Shows Her True Liberal Colors In Seattle" 19 Feb. 2010
  44. Wall Street Journal "The Cap and Tax Fiction" 26 June, 2009
  45. Open Secrets - Service Employees International Union Contributions to Federal Candidates
  46. 46.0 46.1 The Kansas City Star "Show-Me showdown: Outlines of Carnahan-Blunt race emerging" 12 May, 2010
  47. Missouri Republican Party "‘I Finally Found Someone:’ Robin Carnahan takes campaign cash from Hollywood liberal Barbra Streisand" 11 May, 2010
  48. YouTube "Carnahan Campaign Meltdown Caught on Tape" 9 Aug. 2010
  49. Missouri Republican Party "Carnahan campaign meltdown caught on tape!" 10 Aug. 2010
  50. Tony's Kansas City "Continued: Kansas City Councilman Bill Skaggs vs. Nasty Robin Carnahan Tracker!!!" 10 Aug. 2010
  51. 51.0 51.1 The Kansas City Star "Skaggs, GOP tracker in weekend altercation" 10 Aug. 2010
  52. The Source "Robin Carnahan Global HQ Dispatches Bill Skaggs for Attack" 10 Aug. 2010
  53. Red State "Robin Carnahan campaign apologizes for attack" 10 Aug. 2010