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Revision as of 07:39, 2 September 2014

2012
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CongressLogo.png

2014 Congress Elections

Election Date
November 4, 2014

U.S. Senate Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Elections Information
Election DatesVoting in Primaries
Voting on November 4, 2014
Poll Opening and Closing Times
A total of 471 seats in the U.S. Congress (36 Senate seats, including three special elections, and all 435 House seats) are up for election on November 4, 2014.

The best-case scenario for those who believe the November 4, 2014, general election will be a backlash against the Obama Administration’s Affordable Care Act is that Republicans assume control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress. The GOP currently has a 17-seat lead in the House of Representatives. Democrats outnumber Republicans, 53-45, in the U.S. Senate (with two Independents in the mix).[1][2][3]

Heading into the election, Democrats control the U.S. Senate while Republicans are the majority in the U.S. House. For Republicans to take the majority in the Senate, they need to take six seats currently held by Democrats and retain control of the 14 seats currently held by a Republican. For Democrats to take majority control of the U.S. House, a pick up of 17 seats is needed.[4]

As of September 2014, six incumbent senators and 41 representatives have announced they are not seeking re-election. Additionally, three senators and six representatives left office early.

U.S. Senate

See also: United States Senate elections, 2014

The 33 Class II U.S. Senate seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 20 are currently held by Democrats and 13 by Republican senators. Additionally, three special elections will take place in 2014 to fill vacancies that occurred during the 113th Congress (Hawaii, Oklahoma and South Carolina). All three of these special elections will also take place on November 4, 2014, for a total of 36 Senate elections.

For Republicans to gain control of the Senate, they will need to pick up six seats currently held by Democrats and maintain control of all Republican seats up for re-election. Unfortunately for Democratic incumbents, seven of their seats up in 2014 are in states carried by Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election. Those states are: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. If the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) remains a major issue heading into the midterm elections, Democrats face an uphill battle for the current blue seats in red states.[5]

Open seats

As of September 2014, six senators have announced they are not running for re-election in 2014. In addition to the following list, four senators left office early: Max Baucus (D-MA), John Kerry (D-MA), Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Tom Coburn (R-OK). The deaths of Sens. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) and Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), and the early resignation of Coburn, will necessitate three special elections to be held with the 33 regular elections on November 4, 2014.

  • Democratic Party 5 Democrats
  • Republican Party 2 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
Carl LevinElectiondot.png Democratic Michigan
Jay RockefellerElectiondot.png Democratic West Virginia
John WalshElectiondot.png Democratic Montana
Mike JohannsEnds.png Republican Nebraska
Saxby ChamblissEnds.png Republican Georgia
Tim JohnsonElectiondot.png Democratic South Dakota
Tom HarkinElectiondot.png Democratic Iowa
U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party As of September 2014 After the 2014 Election
     Democratic Party 53 Pending
     Republican Party 45 Pending
     Independent 2 Pending
Total 100 100
This map shows the Senate seats up for election in 2014. The red and blue colors indicate whether the seat is currently held by a Republican or a Democrat, respectively.

Race ratings

Washington Post

For the 2014 election cycle, The Washington Post will release periodic lists of the 10 Senate seats (or 11, with this recent edition) most in danger of changing control in 2014. Their August 2014 rankings are below, along with their April ranking of the race in parentheses:[6]

  • 11. Republican Party Georgia: "Businessman David Perdue's (R) primary runoff win over Rep. Jack Kingston means he faces off against Democrat Michelle Nunn. Most recent polling shows Perdue with a slight edge, but the National Republican Senatorial Committee just launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign here. Clearly, they see Nunn as a real threat, despite Georgia's continued GOP lean (it's turning purple more slowly than most people think). (Previous ranking: 10) (Previous ranking: 10)"[6]
  • 10. Democratic Party Colorado: "Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), after some uncertainty, announced last month that he would oppose ballot measures, pushed by Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.), that were aimed at cracking down on fracking. Eventually, the measures were scrapped anyways, but the decision was somewhat surprising from a senator who has often aligned with environmentalists. Democrats fretted rather openly about the measures hurting Udall on the ballot in November. Rep. Cory Gardner (R), though, remains an underdog. (Previous ranking: 9)"[6]
  • 9. Republican Party Kentucky: "The Democrats' best shot at a pickup might be in the Bluegrass State, where polling continues to show one of the tightest races in the country. Despite this, though, election models of 2014 have Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as a strong favorite over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes – in large part because the state is so red. FiveThirtyEight says McConnell has an 80 percent shot to win, and the Post pegs his chances even better than that. We'll see if those models are accurate. (Previous ranking: 7)"[6]
  • 8. Democratic Party Alaska: "The big news Friday was that Joe Miller, the 2010 GOP nominee with strong tea party ties, said that he would support the GOP nominee and not run a third-party campaign if he lost the primary Aug. 19. Anything other than a win by former state attorney general Dan Sullivan in that primary would be a pretty big surprise, and Miller's assurance has got to make Republicans breathe a little easier. But Sen. Mark Begich (D) is doing a lot of things right (Previous ranking: 8)"[6]
  • 7. Democratic Party Iowa: "A recent Roll Call story by Alexis Levinson captured the state of this open seat race nicely: State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) moved through the Iowa State Fair doing a lot of hugging — both people she knew and people she didn't. Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, meanwhile, delivered a dry policy address from the fair's legendary soapbox. Ernst is clearly the candidate with the momentum in this race but, as Levinson noted, Braley might be more closely aligned to the preferred policies of the electorate. (Previous ranking: N/A)"[6]
  • 6. Democratic Party North Carolina: "Senate Democrats' campaign arm just dropped a stunning $9.1 million into a new advertising campaign here, reinforcing that this is the race to watch this fall. It's the least conservative of the four Romney states where Democrats are running for reelection. If Sen. Kay Hagan (D) can hold on to her seat, Democrats give themselves some critical breathing room in the battle for the majority. If state House Speaker Thom Tillis wins (R), the GOP path to the majority becomes much wider. (Previous ranking: 5)"[6]
  • 5. Democratic Party Arkansas: "Rep. Tom Cotton (R) has led the last six public polls of this race — all by between two and four points. Shortly before that, an NBC News/Marist poll incredibly showed Sen. Mark Pryor (D) ahead by 11. We tend to think this is a pretty pure toss-up right now. (Previous ranking: 6)"[6]
  • 4. Democratic Party Louisiana: "It seems likely no one will clear 50 percent threshold in the all-party primary and that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) will face a runoff against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) on Dec. 6. Just imagine the November frenzy in the Bayou State if the Senate majority ends up riding on the outcome. (Previous ranking: 4)"[6]
  • 3. Democratic Party West Virginia: "It seems more and more like Montana and South Dakota are lost causes for Democrats. But West Virginia's not there yet. The Democratic super PAC Senate Majority PAC recently bought broadcast advertising time there, and Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) has run a surprisingly strong campaign. That doesn't mean she's going to upset Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R). It just means West Virginia's not a done deal. (Previous ranking: 2)"[6]
  • 2. Democratic Party Montana: "The decision by Walsh not to seek a full term this fall in the wake of revelations about plagiarism takes an already-difficult race and makes it virtually impossible for Democrats. Democrats will decide on their nominee at a special state convention this weekend. Freshman state Rep. Amanda Curtis seems like the likeliest pick and cuts a very interesting profile. But this race is probably a lost one for Democrats, and Rep. Steve Daines (R) is the heavy favorite to be the next senator. (Previous ranking: 3)"[6]
  • 1. Democratic Party South Dakota: "The good news for Democrat Rick Weiland: Former GOP senator Larry Pressler is pulling nearly one-fifth of the vote as an independent. The bad news: Pressler has raised just $50,000 for the campaign, self-funding another $50,000. As we’ve written before, third-party candidates with little chance of winning tend to see their vote totals fall off at the end. Former governor Mike Rounds (R) is still the big favorite unless something changes in a major way. (Previous ranking: 1)"[6]

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:[7]

     Solid D
     Likely D
     Lean D

     Tossup

     Lean R
     Likely R
     Solid R

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. Senate
Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R Total D Total R Total races
June 27, 2013[8] 6 5 6 3 0 4 11 17 15 35
August 2, 2013[9] 7 4 6 2 3 2 11 17 16 35
October 17, 2013[10] 7 4 6 2 3 2 11 17 16 35
December 19, 2013[11] 7 5 4 3 3 1 12 16 16 35
February 7, 2014[12] 6 6 4 3 3 1 13 16 17 36
February 27, 2014[13] 6 5 5 3 3 1 13 16 17 36
March 19, 2014[14] 8 2 3 7 2 2 12 13 16 36
April 25, 2014[15] 8 2 2 8 2 2 12 12 16 36
August 15, 2014[16] 7 3 1 9 2 3 11 11 16 37

Campaign finance

August 2014

According to OpenSecrets.org, below are the races that had the most outside spending by August 2014. They included the U.S. Senate races in North Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi, Georgia and Arkansas.

List of the races receiving the most in independent expenditure in August 2014, according to OpenSecrets.org.

July 2014

In July 2014, Politico released the highlights from the second quarter 2014 fundraising reports. They included:[17]

April 2014

According to an April 2014 Politico report, vulnerable Democrats were being outraised by Republican challengers.[18] The candidates highlighted in the article were:

August 2013

An August 2013 Politico report reported that the 27 incumbents running for re-election in 2014 had together raised about $125 million by the end of June 2013.[19] The report also found that 2014 may be the most expensive midterm election to date, pointing to the fact that the total amount raised for incumbents seeking re-election is $30 million more than at the same point in 2012 and on par with the amount they had raised in 2010.[19]

The incumbents highlighted in the article were:[19]

April 2013

According to an April 2013 Politico report, incumbent Democrats in red states raised "millions" in the first three months of 2013.[20] The candidates highlighted in the article were:

  • Democratic Party Mary Landrieu (LA) had raised $1.2 million and had $3.5 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Mark Pryor (AR) had raised $1.9 million and had $3.4 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Kay Hagan (NC) had raised $1.6 million and had $2.7 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Mark Begich (AK) had raised $948,000 and had $1.5 million cash on hand[20]

DSCC and NRSC

Both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) work to elect candidates from their respective parties to the U.S. Senate.

Fundraising numbers

July 2014

The DSCC had its strongest second quarter in organization history, raising $21.7 during the quarter. As of July 2014, the DSCC had raised $70.3 million in the 2014 cycle, while the NRSC had raised $68.6 million in 2014.[21]

April 2014

The DSCC outraised the NRSC, $6.3 million to $6.04 million. In April, the DSCC ended the month with $25 million on hand, while the NRSC had $21.9 million in the bank. Both organizations remained debt-free.[22]

October 2013

The DSCC outraised their GOP counterpart, the NRSC, by one million dollars in October 2013. The DSCC raised $4.8 million compared to the NRSC's $3.8 million. This was the organization's best off-year October in their history.

At that time, the DSCC had raised $14 million more than the NRSC, a total of $43.5 million raised. They reported $11.1 million cash on hand. However, the organization was also carrying $6.2 million in debt. The NRSC had $5 million cash on hand at the end of October 2013.[23]

July 2013 memo

In July 2013, NRSC president, Rob Collins, circulated a memo to top donors outlining the path to a majority in the Senate for the Republican Party. From the memo:

"Montana now joins West Virginia and South Dakota as the third red-state where Democrats have not only failed to land their top candidates, but to recruit a candidate capable of winning a general election matchup."

Collins reiterated that Republicans need to win just three seats in states with incumbent Democratic senators.[24]


U.S. House

See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2014

Democrats are hoping to survive a possible referendum on the Obama Administration’s Affordable Care Act and not lose further ground in the Republican-dominated U.S. House of Representatives during the November 4, 2014 general election. All 435 seats of the U.S. House are up for election.

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown -- Pre 2014 Election
Party As of September 2014 After the 2014 Election
     Democratic Party 199 Pending
     Republican Party 234 Pending
     Vacancy 2 Pending
Total 435 435

Battleground study

See also: U.S. House battleground districts, 2014
The purple districts on the Census district map are those found to be competitive in Ballotpedia's study.

Five criteria

A district must have met one or more of the following criteria:

1. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential, and incumbent years in office) and four were of the most competitive nature, purple, they automatically made the cut.

Nineteen districts fit in this category.

2. The district would be considered competitive if it had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) with three of the highlighted factors being most competitive (purple) and two being intermediate competitive (orange). The district must also have a “special factor” (high outside spending, redistricting) to be added to the most competitive list.

Two districts fit into this category.

3. Anomalies: This includes Republicans or Democrats in a district that otherwise trends heavily toward the other party. The district must also have some other qualifying factor, such as an MOV of ten percent or less, an incumbent who has served less than ten years or a competitive 2014 candidate. Both Utah's 4th Congressional District and North Carolina's 7th Congressional District were examples of this before Reps. Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre announced their retirements.

One district fits into this category.

4. Presidential differences: A district that may not have all the categories highlighted, but has voted for the other party in the most recent presidential election and the numbers are tight for the incumbent (redistricting was also factored in here).

One district was considered “Most Competitive” based only on this factor.

5. Recent effects of redistricting: This is relevant to three districts (IL-12, IL-13 and MN-08). Redistricting in the past three years has caused these districts to be extremely tight and have the opportunity for a very close midterm election (the first midterm cycle these new districts will be going through).

Three districts were pushed into the most competitive list because of this, just missing meeting the other criteria listed above.


The 26 most competitive

  • Cook's PVI is Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index.[25]
  • FairVote's %D is FairVote.org's 2014 congressional election projections.[26]
  • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

DCCC & NRCC fundraising

April 2014

In the month of April 2014, the NRCC reported raising $4.1 million, falling short of the $7.1 million the DCCC raised. The NRCC ended the month with $32.3 million cash in the bank, while the DCCC had $43.5 on hand.

The DCCC has brought in over $20 million more than the NRCC overall during this election cycle.[27]

December 2013

As of December 2, 2013, the NRCC reported raising $52,404,530 and spending $35,697,047, leaving it with $18,242,094 cash on hand.[28] Comparatively, the DCCC reported raising $65,202,181 and spending $41,423,695, leaving it with $25,266,707 cash on hand.[29]

September 2013

The DCCC raised $8.4 million in September compared to the $5.3 million the NRCC raised during the same period. This brought the total raised for 2013 through the third quarter, to $58.2 million for the DCCC compared to the NRCC's $42.6 million. As for cash on hand, the DCCC still had an edge: $21.6 million to NRCC's $15.7 million.[30]

August 2013

According to an Open Secrets report on FEC filings released on August 13, 2013, the DCCC had raised $40.8 million to the NRCC's $34.3 million.[31]

July 2013

As of July 2013, the DCCC had outraised the NRCC by $6.5 million.[32]

Outside race ratings

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for U.S. Senate and U.S. House (competitive only) elections. The races detailed below are only those considered competitive. There are six possible designations.

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- 2014 U.S. House Competitive Districts
Month Likely D Lean D D Tossup R Tossup Lean R Likely R Total D Total R Total Competitive races
August 8, 2013[33] 14 16 8 1 11 17 28 29 57
September 5, 2013[34] 14 15 9 1 11 17 38 29 67
October 21, 2013[35] 14 15 9 1 11 17 36 34 70
October 30, 2013[36] 12 15 10 2 16 16 37 34 71
December 18, 2013[37] 14 14 10 4 15 15 38 34 72
January 7, 2014[38] 14 15 10 4 16 16 39 36 75
January 15, 2014[39] 14 14 11 4 16 18 39 38 77
February 13, 2014[40] 14 13 11 4 16 18 38 38 76
March 13, 2014[41] 15 13 11 3 16 18 39 37 76
April 4, 2014[42] 15 13 11 3 17 19 39 39 78
June 26, 2014[43] 16 14 11 2 16 18 41 36 77
August 8, 2014[44] 15 13 13 3 9 17 41 29 70

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Each month the Crystal Ball releases race ratings for U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:[45]

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. House
Month Likely D Lean D D Tossup R Tossup Lean R Likely R Total D Total R Total Competitive races
October 23, 2013[46] 7 20 5 3 15 12 32 30 62
December 17, 2013[47] 8 19 5 6 14 14 32 34 66
January 7, 2014[48] 8 19 5 7 14 14 32 35 67
March 12, 2014[49] 10 15 7 5 14 15 32 34 66
March 31, 2014[50] 10 15 7 5 15 16 32 36 68
August 6, 2014[51] 9 13 10 3 11 16 32 30 62


Party targets

DCCC Frontline

The DCCC's Frontline Program is designed to help vulnerable incumbents win re-election. The following table lists the current members of the Frontline Program.

DCCC Jumpstart

The DCCC's Jumpstart Program provides early support to candidates during the beginning stages of the 2014 election cycle.[52]

NRCC Patriot

The NRCC's Patriot Program is the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and is designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the current members of the Patriot Program.

National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program
District Incumbent
Michigan's 1st District Dan Benishek
Colorado's 6th District Mike Coffman
Illinois' 13th District Rodney Davis
California's 10th District Jeff Denham
Pennsylvania's 8th District Michael G. Fitzpatrick
New York's 19th District Chris Gibson
New York's 11th District Mike Grimm
Nevada's 3rd District Joe Heck
Ohio's 6th District Bill Johnson
Florida's 13th District David Jolly
Ohio's 14th District David Joyce
New York's 23rd District Tom Reed
Virginia's 2nd District Scott Rigell
Florida's 2nd District Steve Southerland II
California's 21st District David G. Valadao
Michigan's 7th District Tim Walberg
Indiana's 2nd District Jackie Walorski
NRCC targets

The following Democratic incumbents have been targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in 2014.

Nick Rahall

In September 2013, the NRCC issued a press release in response to Rahall, one of the organization's main targets in 2014, mistaking an umbrella for a lump of coal during a press conference. The press release stated:

"But Barack Obama, the EPA, and Nick Rahall aren’t waging a war on umbrellas – they are waging a war on coal. And yesterday, Bloomberg reported a new front opening in that war – the EPA is set to issue a rule that will completely halt the development of new coal-fueled plants by requiring they meet unachievable carbon standards."[53]

Media mentions

Across the country, media and experts publish stories that chronicle the incumbents that are in danger of losing their bid for re-election. Some of those incumbents mentioned included:[54]

"The Monkey Cage"

In December 2013, John Sides' column, "The Monkey Cage," a blog published by The Washington Post, released his first predictions for the 2014 elections. Sides and Eric McGhee, a political scientist, developed a forecasting model that uses numerous factors, including: presidential popularity, economic growth and whether it is a presidential or midterm election cycle. "The Monkey Cage" will publish any changes in the forecast.[55]

  • December 2013:
    • Democrats will win approximately 48 percent of the popular vote for the House.
    • Democrats will win 196 seats, for a loss of five seats.

Independent expenditures in 2014

According to OpenSecrets.org, four of the five organizations donating the most in independent expenditures as of September 2014 were liberal organizations (as denoted in the chart by the L, for liberal, or C, for conservative, under the "View" column).

List of the top independent expenditure players in mid-2014 according to OpenSecrets.org.

Primary elections

See also: Signature requirements and deadlines for 2014 U.S. Congress elections

Below is a list of past primary elections:

September 9, 2014

August 26, 2014

August 19, 2014

August 12, 2014

August 9, 2014

August 7, 2014

August 5, 2014

June 24, 2014

June 10, 2014

June 3, 2014

May 20, 2014

May 6, 2014

March 18, 2014

March 4, 2014

Five primaries to watch

Politico published a list of the five primaries to watch in 2014. Politico's narratives about each race included:[56]

"Simpson, a close ally of House Speaker John Boehner, is facing what some are calling his most serious race since he was first elected to the House in 1998.[56]
Attorney Bryan Smith, who has the backing of the anti-tax Club for Growth and RedState founder Erick Erickson, is portraying the incumbent as insufficiently conservative and soft on spending issues.[56] Smith also has the backing of Rod Beck, a former state senator and an influential GOP activist in the state.[56]
Simpson, however, is taking the race seriously, raking in an impressive $306,000 during the second quarter. Smith, meanwhile, suffered an early setback when The Associated Press published a report last week that he had been using a donor’s private airplane to fly to campaign events.
Since 1918, just one Idaho representative has failed to win his party’s nomination before managing to win in the general election."[56]
Results: Simpson defeated Smith by over 23 percentage points.
U.S. House, Idaho District 2 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMike Simpson Incumbent 61.7% 48,101
Bryan Smith 38.3% 29,918
Total Votes 78,019
Source: Results via Associated Press Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.
"Shuster’s (R) primary will pit an incumbent against the anti-establishment wing of the party.[56] It’s not the first time Shuster has faced a serious primary. In 2004, he held off Republican challenger Michael DelGrosso, 51 percent to 49 percent.[56]
He must beat challenger Art Halvorson, who has won early endorsements from RedState founder Erick Erickson and the Madison Project, a conservative group that recently ran a 60-second radio ad hammering Shuster for his votes to raise the debt ceiling.[56]
Halvorson, a wealthy commercial real estate developer who has already put $100,000 towards his campaign, has hammered Shuster for his record on spending issues. Travis Schooley, an Army veteran, is also running."[56]
Results: Despite the high profile endorsements, Shuster won by over 15 percentage points .
U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 9 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBill Shuster Incumbent 51.9% 18,518
Art Halvorson 36.5% 13,007
Travis Schooley 11.6% 4,154
Total Votes 35,679
Source: Results via Associated Press Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.
"Honda is regarded on Capitol Hill as a well-liked and congenial figure who coasts to victory every other year.[56]
Challenger Ro Khanna, who has taught at Stanford University and works at a Silicon Valley law firm, is tapping a vast network of tech donors to give Honda a surprisingly tough fight in 2014.[56] During the second quarter of 2013, the challenger raised over $1 million and reported having $1.7 million cash on hand — more than four times the amount Honda had.[56] Khanna has built a formidable operation filled with veterans of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, including Jeremy Bird, Obama’s national field director in 2012, and David Binder, one of the president’s pollsters.[56]
Honda has the president’s endorsement — and the backing of Democratic power brokers such as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel.[56] While Khanna is likely to draw support from Silicon Valley’s large Indian-American population, Honda enjoys long-standing ties to the Asian-American community, which makes up nearly half the district.[56]
Results: The predictions were correct. The race came down to the two Democratic front runners. In California's blanket primary system, both Ro Khanna and Rep. Mike Honda are advancing to the general election.
U.S. House, California District 17 Primary, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMike Honda Incumbent 48.2% 43,607
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRo Khanna 28% 25,384
     Republican Vanila Singh 17% 15,359
     Republican Joel Vanlandingham 6.8% 6,154
Total Votes 90,504
Source: California Secretary of State
The race is almost certain to extend beyond the June 3 primary.[56] Under California’s newly implemented “Top-Two” system, the top two finishers advance to the November general election, regardless of their party affiliation."[56]
"According to Politico there is no incumbent more likely to lose a primary than DesJarlais, the scandal-plagued sophomore Republican congressman.[56] During the final weeks before the 2012 general election, sworn testimony from his 2001 divorce trial was uncovered in which DesJarlais, a former physician and hospital chief of staff, acknowledged having sexual relationships with patients and even prescribing drugs to one of them.[56] DesJarlais still managed to win re-election in the conservative district.[56]
On August 7, 2013, DesJarlais formally launched his bid for a third term.[56] In 2014, DesJarlais will be confronting several serious primary opponents, including state senator Jim Tracy and state representative Joe Carr.[56] While DesJarlais has raised $160,000 in 2013, Tracy has taken in nearly $740,000 and Carr $305,000.[56]
With Tracy, Carr and several other less-well-known Republican challengers running, there is the possibility that the anti-DesJarlais vote could splinter and allow him to skate by with a plurality of the vote."[56]
Results: In what truly was a competitive race, DesJarlais was in the lead by only 30 votes.
U.S. House, Tennessee District 4 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngScott DesJarlais Incumbent 44.9% 34,787
Jim Tracy 44.8% 34,752
John Anderson 5.9% 4,590
Steve Lane 1.9% 1,483
David Tate 1.2% 937
Michael Warden 0.9% 659
Oluyomi Faparusi 0.4% 284
Total Votes 77,492
Source: Results via Associated Press Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.
"Vulnerable after the scandal surrounding his wife, Tierney barely managed to win re-election in 2012.[56] In 2010, Patrice Tierney pleaded guilty to helping her brother file false tax returns in connection with his operation of an illegal offshore casino.[56]
Republicans criticized Tiernery about his wife, alleging that he was fully aware of her conduct.[56] He ultimately defeated Richard Tisei (D) by fewer than 4,000 votes -- or 1 percent of the vote -- in the general election.
Tisei, a former state house minority leader, is likely to run again in 2014.[56] This time, Tierney will have an added obstacle for re-election, a Democratic primary. Seth Moulton, a Harvard-educated former Marine, has launched a campaign to unseat the congressman. He has recruited veteran Democratic strategist Joe Trippi to help with his campaign.[56] Also running is Marisa DeFranco (D), an attorney who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2012."[56]
Results: Tierney was defeated in the primary by Seth Moulton.
U.S. House, Massachusetts District 6 Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSeth Moulton 49.3% 34,455
John Tierney Incumbent 41.4% 28,882
Marisa DeFranco 6.1% 4,282
John Devine 2.2% 1,525
John Gutta 1% 687
Total Votes 69,831
Source: Politico as of 100% reporting Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.


Congressional polling

Congressional Approval Rating
Poll Total Approve Total Disapprove Margin of Error Sample Size
The Economist/YouGov (September 21-23, 2013) 9 72 +/-5.1 690
CBS/New York Times (September 19-23, 2013) 14 80 +/-3 1014
CNN/ORC (September 27-29, 2013) 10 87 +/-3.5 803
Gallup (October 3-6, 2013) 11 85 +/-4 1028
Gallup (November 7-12, 2013) 9 86 +/-4 1039
The Economist/YouGov (January 11-13, 2014) 8 77 +/-4.3 696
The Economist/YouGov (February 22-24, 2014) 10 74 +/-4.5 710
The Economist/YouGov (March 29-31, 2014) 8 76 +/-4.5 1000
Gallup (June 5-8, 2014) 16 81 +/-4 1027
The Economist/YouGov Poll (August 16-18, 2014) 11 71 +/-4.6 1000
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Constituent approval

During the shutdown, Americans' disapproval rating of their own congressmen reached new a new high, with almost as many people stating disapproval of their member (43%) to approval (44%). The Gallup poll concluded:

"While members of Congress may continue to argue that problems with the image of the body as a whole is not their fault, and that they are doing nothing more than faithfully representing their particular constituents, it is clear that even their own constituents are less positive about the job they are doing than they were in the past."

After October shutdown

United States budget debate, 2013

A USA TODAY/Princeton Survey Research Poll, taken October 17-21, 2013, came to the following post-shutdown conclusions:

  • 54% of Americans blamed both parties, 29% blamed solely Republicans and just 12% placed the blame squarely on the Democrats' shoulders.
  • Despite only 4% of Americans' belief that Congress would change for the worse if current members were replaced by all new members, 52% of respondents said it made no difference on whether they would vote for their incumbent in the next election.[57]

Healthcare.gov polling

See also: Healthcare.gov website rollout

After the numerous problems the Healthcare.gov website dealt with after the initial rollout on October 1, 2013, approval for the Affordable Care Act remained low at the end of 2013. According to a CBS News/New York Times poll in December 2013, more Americans continued to disapprove of the 2010 legislation than approve of it: 50% to 39%, respectively.

"Haters" polling

According to a December 2013 Washington Post-ABC News poll, 72 percent of voters who disapproved of both parties at the federal level said that they would vote for a Republican if the election were held today. Only 14 percent said they would vote for the Democrat.[58]

Issues heading into 2014

[edit]

Affordable Care Act

For senators up for re-election in 2014, this will be the first election since the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. This may be problematic for Democratic senators who voted in favor of the bill in states where it is no longer popular. This will also become a factor in open seats, especially in states where a Democratic senator is retiring. These senators include:

[59]

Shaheen ad

On the heels of the news that President Obama was given the "lie of the year" award for claiming that anyone could keep their healthcare policy under Obamacare, Ending Spending, a conservative political organization, ran an ad against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). It was dubbed by The Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza as "the ad every Democrat should be afraid of in 2014."[60]


The "ad every Democrat should be afraid of in 2014."

Sen. Lee letter

In July 2013, Sen. Mike Lee authored a letter, which as of August 2013 had been signed by 14 Republican senators, which promised a government shutdown unless the Affordable Care Act was defunded. The senators up for re-election in 2014 who signed the letter are:

SCF targets

The Senate Conservatives Fund targeted Sens. Isakson (R-GA), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN) and Burr (R-NC) in August 2013 with two weeks of radio ads designed to push Senate Republicans to support Mike Lee's effort to defund Obamacare.[61]

Government shutdown

See also United States budget debate, 2013

Beginning in August 2013, House and Senate members began discussing the possibility of a government shutdown over the funding of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). On September 20, Republicans passed a spending bill in the House that would fund the government until December, but strip funding from Obamacare. When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced that the Senate would hold a procedural vote on Wednesday, September 24, many senators began to announce their positions on voting against a cloture, the motion to end debate on a bill. After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) gave a marathon speech, the motion for cloture was accepted and Reid was able to strip the Obamacare defunding language contained in the Republican House members' continuing resolution (CR).

Following the successful cloture vote and the Senate subsequently sending a clean continuing resolution back to the House, the two chambers began a high-stakes game of hot potato. By September 30, the House had voted and sent three resolutions to the Senate that all were struck down. The Senate then sent back a clean resolution stripped of any healthcare defunding language. With Obamacare being the issue-at-hand, Congress was unable to agree on whether a resolution would fund the landmark healthcare law.[62]

In the midst of the government shutdown in October 2013, talks began regarding the impending debt ceiling.

Syria

See also: United States involvement in Syria

In August 2012, President Obama said the "red line" for U.S. involvement in Syria was the use of chemical or biological weapons.[63] In April 2013, reports surfaced that Syria had used chemical weapons twice in their civil war, but it was not enough for the U.S. to intervene. In June 2013, President Obama authorized sending weapons to Syrian rebels following more reports of small scale chemical weapon attacks.[63]

On August 21, 2013, the Syrian government was accused of a chemical weapons attack on a town in the suburbs of Damascus, killing thousands, including women and children.[63] On September 3, 2013, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, Secretary of State John Kerry and General Martin Dempsey met with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to support President Obama's decision to use military force to intervene in the Syrian conflict.[64] The group met with the House Foreign Affairs Committee on September 5.[65]

See also: Gang of Eight

Most recently, the Gang of Eight has been used in reference to immigration reform and includes eight of the most influential Senators, with four from each party.[66][67]

On May 6, 2013, Senators John McCain (R), Chuck Schumer (D), Richard Durbin (D), Robert Menendez (D), Michael Bennet (D), Lindsey Graham (R), Marco Rubio (R) and Jeff Flake (R) unveiled the outlines of their bi-partisan immigration plan.[66][67] The statement of principles was rather broad, but sets forth “four basic pillars”:

  • 1. A “tough but fair path to citizenship . . . .contingent upon securing our borders and tracking whether legal immigrants have left the country as required”;
  • 2. Reform our legal immigration system with a greater eye toward our economic needs;
  • 3. Workplace verification; and
  • 4. Setting up a system for admitting future workers (although the term “guest worker” is not used).[67]

On June 27, 2013, in a late afternoon vote, the Senate voted to approve the immigration reform bill, Senate Bill 744.[68] The bill passed by a vote of 68-to-32, with 14 Republicans voting in favor.[69][68]

Speaker John Boehner told House Republicans in a closed-door meeting on July 10, 2013, that the internal debate over immigration reform is an “important conversation," and that while the House will not take up the Senate-passed bill, members must do something to address the issue.[70]

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) on July 8, 2013, ridiculed the House’s strategy of using the “Hastert rule” to pass legislation and said Speaker John Boehner will eventually have to take up the Senate’s immigration bill.[71] Reid also said Boehner’s adherence to the “Hastert Rule” requiring a majority of Republican caucus votes to move legislation is emblematic of the lower chamber’s dysfunction.[72]

See also: United States Farm Bill 2013

The Senate passed a $1 trillion farm bill in June 2013 to fund both food stamps and farmer subsidies. States heavy in agriculture, including ones that will be competitive in 2014, may turn more favorably to Democratic candidates due to Republican opposition of the bill. The vote was 66-27, with 25 of the 27 nay votes being from Republicans. The two Democratic senators to vote against the bill were Jack Reed (RI) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI)

Both Montana and South Dakota, with agriculture being a major industry, will reap the benefits of the bill and also have open seats due to the retirement of Max Baucus (D-MT) and Tim Johnson (D-SD).[73]

The comprehensive bill failed in the House due largely in part to the votes of eight Democratic House members who joined the Republican majority to vote down the measure.[74] Reps. Collin Peterson, John Barrow, Sanford Bishop, Cheri Bustos, Sean Maloney, Mike McIntyre, Bill Owens and Tim Walz were the eight Democratic members who voted to reject the bill.[74] According to analysis by OpenSecrets.org, many of these Democratic members have received significant political contributions from agricultural organizations that benefit from crop insurance subsidies.[74] Five of the eight are on the House Agriculture Committee--Peterson, Bustos, Maloney, McIntyre and Walz-- from which agribusiness firms routinely target committee members with sizable contributions.[74]

Upon arrival at the House, the bill was altered by focusing solely on the farm programs and did not include the food stamp program, which will be voted on later. The House and Senate will now need to draft a final bill through conference committee.[75]

House Republicans passed a bill, the Student Success Act, on July 19, 2013, to reduce the federal role in public education and outline their vision for a national educational policy to replace the No Child Left Behind law.[76][77] The measure would give state and local governments greater powers to determine how best to improve schools and would sharply reduce federal involvement in education matters.[77]

It marked a significant departure from No Child Left Behind, the 2002 law that set federal goals for academic achievement and penalties for schools that fell short of those goals, as well as prescriptions for steps states must take to improve failing schools.[76]

No Democrats supported the bill, which passed by a 221 to 207 margin, with 12 Republicans voting with the Democrats against the measure.[78] It marked the first time in a dozen years that either chamber of Congress approved a comprehensive bill to update federal education law.[76]

The House bill is said to have no chance of moving through the Democratic-led Senate as it is written, and President Obama has threatened to veto it.[77] The Senate committee overseeing education has completed work on its own measure that would give states greater flexibility in writing their own plans to improve schools. However, unlike the Republican proposal that passed the House, that bill would allow the education secretary to retain approval power over those proposals.[77] Full Senate consideration of the measure is unlikely to happen before the fall of 2014.[77]

See also

References

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