United States House of Representatives elections, 2012

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Election Date
November 6, 2012

Election Results

U.S. Senate Elections by State
Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Elections Information
Election DatesVoting in Primaries
Voting on November 6, 2012
Poll Opening and Closing Times

Elections to the U.S. House will be held on November 6, 2012. All 435 seats will be up for election.

The 2012 elections will be the first using new redistricting maps based on 2010 Census data. As a result of redistricting, the number of swing races that are competitive is expected to drop below 100.[1] Redistricting was considered a draw between Democrats and Republicans, with both parties gaining advantages in some states.[2] Democrats will require a net gain of 25 seats to re-take control of the U.S. House. Because of redistricting, that number may be closer to 30 or 35.[3]

In 2010, 53 incumbents lost to challengers with Republicans swinging 60 total seats in their favor.[4]

Partisan breakdown

Heading into the 2012 election, Republicans are the majority party in the U.S. House. A total of 218 seats are needed for a majority. Republicans can lose as many as 24 seats in the November election and still maintain control of the chamber. Democrats need to win at least 25 seats to take back the partisan advantage.

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2012 After the 2012 Election
     Democratic Party 193 201
     Republican Party 242 234
Total 435 435

A Washington Post article in May 2012 indicated that the Republican House majority was no guarantee, based on polls indicated the vulnerability of some incumbents in neutral districts.[5] A Politico story in May 2012 pointed to California as the likely state that will determine whether Democrats win control of the House.[6] An October 24, 2012 article in Bloomberg Businessweek indicated that Republicans were in a "strong position" to retain their majority in the House. Political analysts predicted that Democrats could gain up to 10 seats on election night.[7]

Retiring incumbents

As of Thursday, August 21, 2014, Ballotpedia staff have counted 42 total current incumbents who are not running for re-election in the 2012 elections.

  • Democratic Party 23 Democrats
  • Republican Party 19 Republicans
Name Party District
Barney Frank Electiondot.png Democratic Massachusetts, District 4
Bob Filner Electiondot.png Democratic California, District 51
Bob Turner Ends.png Republican New York, District 9
Brad Miller Electiondot.png Democratic North Carolina, District 13
Charlie Gonzalez Electiondot.png Democratic Texas, District 20
Christopher S. Murphy Electiondot.png Democratic Connecticut, District 5
Connie Mack Ends.png Republican Florida, District 14
Dale E. Kildee Electiondot.png Democratic Michigan, District 5
Dan Boren Electiondot.png Democratic Oklahoma, District 2
Dan Burton Ends.png Republican Indiana, District 5
David Dreier Ends.png Republican California, District 26
Dennis Cardoza Electiondot.png Democratic California, District 18
Denny Rehberg Ends.png Republican U.S. House, Montana, At-large
Ed Towns Electiondot.png Democratic New York, District 10
Elton Gallegly Ends.png Republican California, District 24
Gary Ackerman Electiondot.png Democratic New York, District 5
Geoff Davis Ends.png Republican Kentucky, District 4
Heath Shuler Electiondot.png Democratic North Carolina, District 11
Jay Inslee Electiondot.png Democratic Washington, District 1
Jeff Flake Ends.png Republican Arizona, District 6
Jerry F. Costello Electiondot.png Democratic Illinois, District 12
Jerry Lewis Ends.png Republican California, District 41
Joe Donnelly Electiondot.png Democratic Indiana, District 2
John Olver Electiondot.png Democratic Massachusetts, District 1
Lynn Woolsey Electiondot.png Democratic California, District 6
Martin Heinrich Electiondot.png Democratic New Mexico, District 1
Maurice Hinchey Electiondot.png Democratic New York, District 22
Mazie K. Hirono Electiondot.png Democratic Hawaii, District 2
Mike Pence Ends.png Republican Indiana, District 6
Mike Ross Electiondot.png Democratic Arkansas, District 4
Norm Dicks Electiondot.png Democratic Washington, District 6
Rick Berg Ends.png Republican North Dakota, At-Large, District
Ron Paul Ends.png Republican Texas, District 14
Shelley Berkley Electiondot.png Democratic Nevada, District 1
Steve Austria Ends.png Republican Ohio, District 7
Steven C. LaTourette Ends.png Republican Ohio, District 14
Sue Wilkins Myrick Ends.png Republican North Carolina, District 9
Tammy Baldwin Electiondot.png Democratic Wisconsin, District 2
Timothy V. Johnson Ends.png Republican Illinois, District 15
W. Todd Akin Ends.png Republican Missouri, District 2
Todd Russell Platts Ends.png Republican U.S. House, Pennsylvania, District 19
Wally Herger Ends.png Republican California, District 2

Defeated incumbents

In 2012, a total of 13 incumbents were defeated in U.S. House primaries. They are:

Name Party District Year Assumed Office
Benjamin Quayle Ends.png Republican Arizona, District 3 2011
Cliff Stearns Ends.png Republican Florida, District 6 1989
Dennis J. Kucinich Democratic Ohio, District 10 1997
Donald A. Manzullo Ends.png Republican Illinois, District 16 1993
Hansen Clarke Electiondot.png Democratic Michigan, District 13 2011
Jason Altmire Electiondot.png Democratic Pennsylvania, District 4 2007
Jean Schmidt Ends.png Republican Ohio, District 2 2005
John Sullivan Ends.png Republican Oklahoma, District 1 2002
Russ Carnahan Electiondot.png Democratic Missouri, District 3 2005
Sandy Adams Ends.png Republican Florida, District 24 2011
Silvestre Reyes Electiondot.png Democratic Texas, District 16 1997
Steve Rothman Electiondot.png Democratic New Jersey, District 9 1997
Tim Holden Electiondot.png Democratic Pennsylvania, District 17 1993

Vulnerable incumbents

Across the country, media and experts publish stories frequently that chronicle the incumbents that are in danger for losing their bid for re-election. Some of those incumbents mentioned include:

Primaries

The state primaries listed by month are as follows:

This map displays the month of each
Congressional primary in 2012
NevadaMassachusettsColoradoNew MexicoWyomingArizonaMontanaCaliforniaOregonWashingtonIdahoTexasOklahomaKansasNebraskaSouth DakotaNorth DakotaMinnesotaIowaMissouriArkansasLouisianaMississippiAlabamaGeorgiaFloridaSouth CarolinaIllinoisWisconsinTennesseeNorth CarolinaIndianaOhioKentuckyPennsylvaniaNew JerseyNewVermontVermontNew HampshireMaineWest VirginiaVirginiaMarylandMarylandConnecticutConnecticutDelawareDelawareRhode IslandRhode IslandMassachusettsNew HampshireMichiganMichiganAlaskaCong primaries colored by month12.png

March

  • Ohio, March 6
  • Alabama, March 13
  • Mississippi, March 13
  • Illinois, March 20

April

  • Maryland, April 3
  • Pennsylvania, April 24

May

  • Indiana, May 8
  • North Carolina, May 8
  • West Virginia, May 8
  • Idaho, May 15
  • Nebraska, May 15
  • Oregon, May 15
  • Arkansas, May 22
  • Kentucky, May 22
  • Texas, May 29

June

  • California, June 5
  • Iowa, June 5
  • Montana, June 5
  • New Jersey, June 5
  • New Mexico, June 5
  • South Dakota, June 5
  • Maine, June 12
  • Nevada, June 12
  • North Dakota, June 12
  • South Carolina, June 12
  • Virginia, June 12
  • New York, June 26
  • Oklahoma, June 26
  • Utah, June 26
  • Colorado, June 26

July

  • Georgia, July 31

August

  • Tennessee, August 2
  • Kansas, August 7
  • Michigan, August 7
  • Missouri, August 7
  • Washington, August 7
  • Hawaii, August 11
  • Connecticut, August 14
  • Florida, August 14
  • Minnesota, August 14
  • Wyoming, August 21
  • Alaska, August 28
  • Arizona, August 28
  • Vermont, August 28

September

  • Massachusetts, September 6
  • Delaware, September 11
  • New Hampshire, September 11
  • Rhode Island, September 11

Candidates by state

See also: List of candidates running in U.S. Congress elections, 2012

More than 2,400 candidates filed to run for election to the U.S. House in 2012. For a list of all candidates running for office by state, see this page.

Campaign finance

After the first 15 months of the 2012 election cycle, candidates for the U.S. House had raised more than $566 million. That sum is $57 million more than the same point in 2010, and double the level at the same point in the election cycle as the 2002 races. Of that $566 million, Republicans have raised $335 million while Democrats raised $221 million. The 2010 campaign set a fundraising record of $1.1 billion.[15] In April 2012, House Democrats reserved more than $32 million in ad time in districts across the country. The reservations by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included 14 states, predominantly swing states. Headlining the spending was $8 million in Florida and $3 million in Ohio.[16]

In September 2012, the NRCC raised $12.4 million and had $29.5 million cash on hand.[17]

In October 2012, the Campaign Finance Institute and the Brennan Center for Justice released reports detailing the high levels of independent expenditures in the election cycle. The Campaign Finance Institute report determined that between October 5-12, more than $1 million was spent by outside groups in 3 House races alone. Those races are:[18]

The report from the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law was published on October 22nd and focuses on 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report.

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House." [20] A number of trends were identified regarding the volume, potential weight of outside spending and breakdown of campaign funding by party, including:

  • As of the end of the most recent reporting period, less than 60% of money spent on the 25 most hotly contested races came from the candidates' campaigns on average, and over 50% of the spending for 11 of the races were from outside groups/party committees.
  • The combined reported expenditures from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) mirror the total spending by "Republican-leaning and Democratic-leaning outside groups" in the 25 races going through the second week of October.
  • The role of small donations in influencing election outcomes could be eclipsed by the comparatively massive funding influence of the NRCC, DCCC, and other outside groups. "Excluding Florida's 18th district, where incumbent Allen West (R) raised a staggering $7.4 million in small donations through September 30th," Republican and Democratic candidates in the rest of the races raised only 7.6% and 12.4%, respectively, of money from donations under $200.

October

In October 2012, the House Majority PAC announced $8.4 million of ads in nine states targeted Republican candidates. The nine states are Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Ohio, Connecticut, and Nevada.[21] The House Majority PAC also reported raising $5.9 million in September, a number which it hopes to double in October.[22]

Quarterly reports

On October 15, 2012, quarterly reports were submitted by campaigns to the Federal Election Commission. The political blog Daily Kos did an analysis of the fundraising figures, specifically looking at three areas:[23]

1) Races where challengers outraised an incumbent in the third quarter: 24 races qualify -- 17 Democratic challengers and seven Republican challengers outraised their incumbent opponent.

2) Races where challengers have more cash-on-hand than the incumbent: 10 races qualify -- six Democratic challengers and four Republican challengers have more cash-on-hand than their incumbent opponent.

3) Races that are incumbent-vs-incumbent: Five incumbent-vs-incumbent races remain.

DCCC

As of July 14, the DCCC had raised $96,754,717 and spent $70,064,229, leaving $27,496,113 cash on hand.[24] Aas of October 2012, the DCCC had raised $53.3 million from small donations during the election cycle -- which was $15 million more than during the entire 2010 election.[25]

NRCC

In October 2012, the NRCC launched 16 new ads for a total spending of more than $6 million. The purchases were in the following districts:[26]

Competitive races

RealClearPolitics

The website RealClearPolitics listed 50 districts in order of likelihood to switch party on November 6. Those districts are:[27]

RealClearPolitics 50 Most likely US House Districts to Change Party
Rank District Party Incumbent November 6 Results Switch?
1 North Carolina's 13th District Electiondot.png Democratic Open Republican Party George E.B. Holding Yes
2 Illinois' 8th District Ends.png Republican Open Democratic Party Tammy Duckworth Yes
3 North Carolina's 11th District Electiondot.png Democratic Open Republican Party Mark Meadows Yes
4 Maryland's 6th District Ends.png Republican Roscoe Bartlett Democratic Party John Delaney Yes
5 North Carolina's 8th District Electiondot.png Democratic Larry Kissell Republican Party Richard Hudson Yes
6 Arkansas's 4th District Electiondot.png Democratic Open Republican Party Tom Cotton Yes
7 Florida's 22nd District Ends.png Republican Open Democratic Party Lois Frankel Yes
8 Illinois' 17th District Ends.png Republican Bobby Schilling Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Yes
9 New York's 27th District Electiondot.png Democratic Kathy Hochul Republican Party Chris Collins Yes
10 New Hampshire's 2nd District Ends.png Republican Charles Bass Democratic Party Annie Kuster Yes
11 Indiana's 2nd District Electiondot.png Democratic Open Republican Party Jackie Walorski Yes
12 Arizona's 1st District Ends.png Republican Open Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Yes
13 California's 52nd District Ends.png Republican Brian Bilbray Democratic Party Scott Peters Yes
14 Georgia's 12th District Electiondot.png Democratic John Barrow Democratic Party John Barrow No
15 New York's 24th District Ends.png Republican Ann Marie Buerkle Democratic Party Dan Maffei Yes
16 North Carolina's 7th District Electiondot.png Democratic Mike McIntyre Democratic Party Mike McIntyre No
17 Washington's 1st District Electiondot.png Democratic Open Democratic Party Suzan DelBene No
18 Michigan's 11th District Ends.png Republican Open Republican Party Kerry Bentivolio No
19 Illinois' 11th District Ends.png Republican Judy Biggert Democratic Party Bill Foster Yes
20 Illinois' 10th District Ends.png Republican Robert J. Dold Democratic Party Brad Schneider Yes
21 Illinois' 12th District Electiondot.png Democratic Open Democratic Party William Enyart No
22 California's 26th District Ends.png Republican Open Democratic Party Julia Brownley Yes
23 New Hampshire's 1st District Ends.png Republican Frank Guinta Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Yes
24 Iowa's 3rd District Electiondot.png Democratic Leonard Boswell Republican Party Tom Latham Yes
25 Ohio's 16th District Ends.png Republican James B. Renacci Republican Party James B. Renacci No
26 California's 7th District Ends.png Republican Dan Lungren Democratic Party Ami Bera Yes
27 Pennsylvania's 12th District Electiondot.png Democratic Mark Critz Republican Party Keith Rothfus Yes
28 Florida's 18th District Ends.png Republican Allen West Democratic Party Patrick Murphy Yes
29 Oklahoma's 2nd District Electiondot.png Democratic Open Republican Party Markwayne Mullin Yes
30 Iowa's 4th District Ends.png Republican Steve King Republican Party Steve King No
31 New York's 21st District Electiondot.png Democratic Bill Owens Democratic Party Bill Owens No
32 California's 9th District Electiondot.png Democratic Jerry McNerney Democratic Party Jerry McNerney No
33 Colorado's 6th District Ends.png Republican Mike Coffman Republican Party Mike Coffman No
34 New York's 18th District Ends.png Republican Nan Hayworth Democratic Party Sean Maloney Yes
35 California's 24th District Electiondot.png Democratic Lois Capps Democratic Party Lois Capps No
36 New York's 1st District Electiondot.png Democratic Tim Bishop Democratic Party Tim Bishop No
37 Illinois' 13th District Ends.png Republican Open Republican Party Rodney Davis No
38 Rhode Island's 1st District Electiondot.png Democratic David N. Cicilline Democratic Party David N. Cicilline No
39 Wisconsin's 7th District Ends.png Republican Sean Duffy Republican Party Sean Duffy No
40 Nevada's 3rd District Ends.png Republican Joe Heck Republican Party Joe Heck No
41 Massachusetts' 6th District Electiondot.png Democratic John Tierney Democratic Party John Tierney No
42 Utah's 4th District Electiondot.png Democratic Jim Matheson Democratic Party Jim Matheson No
43 Minnesota's 8th District Ends.png Republican Chip Cravaack Democratic Party Rick Nolan Yes
44 Pennsylvania's 8th District Ends.png Republican Michael G. Fitzpatrick Republican Party Michael G. Fitzpatrick No
45 New York's 11th District Ends.png Republican Michael Grimm Republican Party Michael Grimm No
46 Colorado's 3rd District Ends.png Republican Scott Tipton Republican Party Scott Tipton No
47 California's 10th District Ends.png Republican Jeff Denham Republican Party Jeff Denham No
48 Florida's 26th District Ends.png Republican David Rivera Democratic Party Joe Garcia Yes
49 Virginia's 2nd District Ends.png Republican Scott Rigell Republican Party Scott Rigell No
50 New Jersey's 3rd District Ends.png Republican Jon Runyan Republican Party Jon Runyan No

New York Times

The New York Times rates the U.S. House races. There are five possible designations:

     Solid Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Solid Republican

New York Times Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts
Month Solid D Lean D Tossup Lean R Solid R Total Seats in Play
July 25, 2012[28] 156 23 25 32 199 80
Note: A total of 218 seats are needed for the majority

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. The races detailed below are only those considered competitive. There are six possible designations. As of October 18, there are 86 competitive districts.[29]

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball

Each month the Crystal Ball releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations: [61]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. House
Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R
June 6, 2012[62] 152 14 19 15 23 19 193
May 9, 2012[63] 151 16 21 13 23 21 190
April 2, 2012[64] 149 19 19 13 25 25 185

Center for Voting and Democracy

The Center for Voting and Democracy (Fairvote) released its projections in October 2012. According to the organization, there are 177 projected Republican winners, 156 projected Democratic winners, and 102 "no-projection" districts. Additionally:[65][66]

  • 238 districts have a Republican-tilt in partisanship
  • 189 district have a Democratic-tilt in partisanship
  • 8 districts are even

According to the study, Republicans are "far better positioned than Democrats to win control of the House."[67]

Redistricting

The 2012 elections will be the first using new maps drawn as a result of the 2010 Census. The breakdown of states that won and lost new seats in the Congressional reapportionment are as follows:[68]

However, while population gains have generally taken place in Republican states, projections show the bulk of the increases are from minorities -- particularly in states like Arizona, Florida and Texas.[71] Minorities generally lean Democratic in elections.[72] According to an estimate by Salon.com, Republicans could gain 15 new seats nationwide if they chose to impose "brutal" maps.[73]

Of the top 10 Congressional districts that need to lose population -- meaning they were the fastest growing districts over the past decade in the country -- all of them were won by a Republican in the 2010 election. That implies, that Republicans will have an easier time spreading their voters across more districts while still managing to try and maintain a safe majority in those overly-populated districts. The most-populated district is the 3rd Congressional seat in Nevada, which has a population of 1,002,482. The least-populated district is the 1st Congressional seat in Nebraska, with 611,333 residents.[74]

According to Mike Shields, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s political director, redistricting "has taken a lot of seats off the table for Democrats."[75]

In 2010, the 10 closest U.S. House races were won by the following House members:[76]

Congressional approval rating

Throughout the 112th Congress, public sentiment has been critical of the performance of elected officials. On February 8, 2012, Gallup released a poll in which a record-low of 10 percent of Americans approved of Congress. Viewpoints on Democrats and Republicans was equally negative. [77] "This Congress has been judged by almost everybody as the least productive, most confrontational Congress in a very, very long period of time," said House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland).[78]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
Poll Approve DisapproveNo opinionMargin of ErrorSample Size
Gallup News Service (November 3-6, 2011)
13%82%5%+/-41,012
Gallup News Service
(December 15-18, 2011)
11%86%3%+/-41,019
Gallup News Service (January 5-8, 2012)
13%81%6%+/-41,011
Gallup News Service (February 2-5, 2012)
10%86%4%+/-41,029
Gallup News Service (March 8-11, 2012)
12%82%6%+/-41,024
Gallup News Service (August 9-12, 2012)
10%83%7%+/-41,012
Gallup News Service (September 6-9, 2012)
13%83%4%+/-41,017
AVERAGES 11.71% 83.29% 5% +/-4 1,017.71
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Generic congressional ballot

RealClearPolitics

Each week, RealClearPolitics releases a table with an aggregate of the generic congressional vote from a variety of polling organizations, including Rasmussen Reports, Politico, NPR, USA Today/Gallup and Bloomberg.[79]

Generic Congressional Ballot -- Average from RealClearPolitics
Poll Democratic Republican
10/1/12
44%45%
9/1/12
44.2%44%
8/1/12
41.8%43%
7/1/12
44.3%43%
6/1/12
44.2%44.3%
5/1/12
41.3%42.5%
4/1/12
43.6%44.8%
AVERAGES 43.34% 43.8%
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

See also

External links

Additional reading

References

  1. USA Today "Redistricting takes some of the 'swing' out of House fights," April 23, 2012
  2. Los Angeles Times "Nationally, redistricting looks like a draw between the parties," January 14, 2012
  3. New York Times "New District Maps Toughen Democrats’ Race for House," April 19, 2012
  4. PBS "Congress Loses Hundreds of Years of Experience - But Majority of Incumbents Stick Around," November 5, 2010
  5. Washington Post "Why the GOP’s House majority isn’t safe," May 31, 2012
  6. Politico "Democrats look to California in bid to retake House," May 17, 2012
  7. Businessweek "Republicans in Strong Position to Keep U.S. House Control," October 24, 2012
  8. 8.00 8.01 8.02 8.03 8.04 8.05 8.06 8.07 8.08 8.09 8.10 8.11 8.12 8.13 8.14 8.15 8.16 8.17 8.18 8.19 Washington Post "2012 redistricting: Top 10 matchups between incumbents," January 13, 2012
  9. 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 National Journal "Stick a fork in them?" November 23, 2011
  10. 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 National Journal "," October 17, 2011
  11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 Roll Call "Top 10 Vulnerable: Illinois, North Carolina Top List," November 10, 2011
  12. 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 Politico "5 primaries to watch," September 11, 2011
  13. 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 The Hill "Five most vulnerable redistricted Dems," August 20, 2011
  14. 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 The Hill "Most vulnerable redistricted Republicans," August 21, 2011
  15. Politico "House candidates raise more than $566M," July 16, 2012
  16. Desert News "House Democrats reserve $32 million in ad time," April 18, 2012
  17. Washington Post "," NRCC raises $12.4 million in September," October 10, 2012
  18. Campaign Finance Institute "10 Senate, 3 House Races Top $1 Million in Spending Over the Past 7 Days Alone," October 12, 2012
  19. The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings", updated October 18, 2012
  20. Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  21. Majority PAC 2012 "EXPANDING THE SENATE MAP, MAJORITY PAC LAUNCHES $8.4 MILLION, NINE-STATE CAMPAIGN," October 2012
  22. The New York Times, "With Growing Willingness, Donors Come to Aid of Democratic ‘Super PACs’," October 19, 2012
  23. Daily Kos "Third quarter House fundraising: who's got the cash?" October 18, 2012
  24. Open Secrets "Total Raised," Accessed July 14, 2012
  25. Washington Post "In a super PAC world, Democrats win using small donors," October 10, 2012
  26. Roll Call "NRCC Launches More Than $6 Million Worth of Ads," October 14, 2012
  27. RealClearPolitics "Election 2012: Senate, House & Governor Races," Accessed October 5, 2012
  28. New York Times "Race Ratings Table," accessed July 25, 2012
  29. Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," Accessed December 12, 2011
  30. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," October 30, 2012
  31. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," October 25, 2012
  32. [http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings/4736 Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," October 18, 2012]
  33. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," October 11, 2012
  34. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," October 5, 2012
  35. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," September 27, 2012
  36. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," September 20, 2012
  37. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
  38. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," September 6, 2012
  39. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," August 20, 2012
  40. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," August 15, 2012
  41. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," August 12, 2012
  42. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," August 2, 2012
  43. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," July 26, 2012
  44. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
  45. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," June 28, 2012
  46. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," June 14, 2012
  47. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," June 7, 2012
  48. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
  49. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," May 24, 2012
  50. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," May 17, 2012
  51. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," May 3, 2012
  52. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," April 26, 2012
  53. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," April 19, 2012
  54. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," April 12, 2012
  55. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," April 5, 2012
  56. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," March 23, 2012
  57. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," March 15, 2012
  58. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," March 8, 2012
  59. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," March 6, 2012
  60. Cook Political Report "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," March 5, 2012
  61. Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," Accessed December 12, 2011
  62. Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 House Ratings," Accessed on June 6, 2012
  63. Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 House Ratings," Accessed on May 9, 2012
  64. Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 House Ratings," Accessed on April 2, 2012
  65. Huffington Post "Winner Take All and the Great Southern Partisan Reversal, 1990-2010," October 18, 2010
  66. Washington Post "How redistricting leads to a more partisan Congress — in two charts," October 16, 2012
  67. Center for Voting and Democracy "Elections Projections for 2012" October 2012
  68. New York Times "Census 2010:Gains and Losses in Congress," December 21, 2010
  69. Official 2010 Apportionment from Census
  70. Official 2010 Apportionment from Census
  71. National Journal "Don't Believe the Reapportionment Hype," December 23, 2010
  72. Huffington Post "Reapportionment not necessarily good news for Republicans," December 21, 2010
  73. Salon "How Obama can stop a GOP redistricting bonanza," December 22, 2010
  74. New York Times "Exurban growth should bolster GOP in Congressional redistricting," December 21, 2010
  75. National Journal "Redistricting’s Dark Matter," March 22, 2012
  76. Politico "Where 2010's 10 closest House races stand," August 24, 2011
  77. Gallup News Service "Congress' Job Approval at New Low of 10%," February 8, 2012
  78. Bloomberg News "Congress exiting to campaign leaving pileup of issues," September 23, 2012
  79. RealClearPolitics "Generic Congressional Vote"