Difference between revisions of "United States House of Representatives elections, 2014"

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
(NRCC targets)
Line 61: Line 61:
 
|-
 
|-
 
|}
 
|}
 +
=====Nick Rahall=====
 +
In September 2013, the NRCC issued a press release in response to [[Nick Rahall|Rahall]], one of the organization's main targets in 2014, mistaking an umbrella for a lump of coal during a press conference. The press release stated:
 +
::"But Barack Obama, the EPA, and Nick Rahall aren’t waging a war on umbrellas – they are waging a war on coal. And yesterday, Bloomberg reported a new front opening in that war – the EPA is set to issue a rule that will completely halt the development of new coal-fueled plants by requiring they meet unachievable carbon standards."<ref>[https://www.nrcc.org/2013/09/12/nick-rahalls-war-umbrellas/ ''NRCC.org'', "Nick Rahall's War on Umbrellas," September 12, 2013]</ref>
  
 
===Media mentions===
 
===Media mentions===

Revision as of 11:14, 16 September 2013

2012

CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. House Elections

Election Date
November 4, 2014

U.S. Senate Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Elections Information
Election DatesVoting in Primaries
Voting on November 4, 2014
Poll Opening and Closing Times
Elections to the U.S. House will be held on November 4, 2014. All 435 seats will be up for election. Additionally, there will be special elections to fill vacancies that occur in the 113th United States Congress.

According to a Washington Post article in December 2012, it will be difficult for Democrats to win the majority in 2014, in part because the president's party rarely makes gains during the midterm election.[1]

Partisan breakdown

In 2012, where Barack Obama won re-election by 126 electoral votes, the Republican party maintained their control of the U.S. House winning 234 seats. The Democrats did make some gains, winning 201 seats. This is up from the 193 seats they held prior to the election.

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown -- Pre 2014 Election
Party As of July 2014 After the 2014 Election
     Democratic Party 199 Pending
     Republican Party 233 Pending
     Vacancy 3 Pending
Total 435 435

Following the 2012 general election, Democratic candidates held on to nine seats that had a political lean favoring Republicans by 54% or more. This is down from prior to 2010 where Democrats held 32 seats in that same environment. With regards to ticket-splitting, there were 24 districts in which one party's nominee carried the presidential vote and the other party's nominee won the congressional race. All but four of which were won by an incumbent. Of the 435 districts, 241 had a Republican lean and this has parity to the partisan distribution in the 1990s when Democratic candidates were winning in many Republican leaning districts. While Democratic candidates won more than a million votes over Republican candidates in the 2012 general election, most of the votes were clustered around urban areas as opposed being broadly dispersed across the country. There are 47 districts with a partisan divide of 70 percent to 30 percent in favor of Democrats. Only 23 such districts exist on the Republican side. Of the 16 districts where the partisan divide is 80% to 20% or more, Democrats represent 15 of them.[2]

Competitive races

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for U.S. Senate and U.S. House (competitive only) elections. The races detailed below are only those considered competitive. There are six possible designations.

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- 2014 U.S. House Competitive Districts
Month Likely D Lean D D Tossup R Tossup Lean R Likely R Total D Total R Total Competitive races
August 8, 2013[3] 14 16 8 1 11 17 28 29 57
September 5, 2013[4] 14 15 9 1 11 17 38 29 67
October 21, 2013[5] 14 15 9 1 11 17 36 34 70
October 30, 2013[6] 12 15 10 2 16 16 37 34 71
December 18, 2013[7] 14 14 10 4 15 15 38 34 72
January 7, 2014[8] 14 15 10 4 16 16 39 36 75
January 15, 2014[9] 14 14 11 4 16 18 39 38 77
February 13, 2014[10] 14 13 11 4 16 18 38 38 76
March 13, 2014[11] 15 13 11 3 16 18 39 37 76
April 4, 2014[12] 15 13 11 3 17 19 39 39 78

Five primaries to watch

Politico published a list in August 2013 of the five primaries to watch in 2014. They included:[13]

Democratic and Republican targets

DCCC Frontline Program

The DCCC's Frontline Program is designed to help vulnerable incumbents win re-election. The following table lists the current members of the Frontline Program.

DCCC Jumpstart Program

The DCCC's Jumpstart Program is providing early support to candidates in order to cultivate support in the beginning stages of the 2014 election cycle.[14]

NRCC Patriot Program

The NRCC's Patriot Program is the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and is designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the current members of the Patriot Program.

National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program
District Incumbent
Michigan's 1st District Dan Benishek
Colorado's 6th District Mike Coffman
Illinois' 13th District Rodney Davis
California's 10th District Jeff Denham
Pennsylvania's 8th District Michael G. Fitzpatrick
New York's 19th District Chris Gibson
New York's 11th District Mike Grimm
Nevada's 3rd District Joe Heck
Ohio's 6th District Bill Johnson
Florida's 13th District David Jolly
Ohio's 14th District David Joyce
New York's 23rd District Tom Reed
Virginia's 2nd District Scott Rigell
Florida's 2nd District Steve Southerland II
California's 21st District David G. Valadao
Michigan's 7th District Tim Walberg
Indiana's 2nd District Jackie Walorski

NRCC targets

The following Democratic incumbents have been targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee, Targeted incumbents
District Targeted incumbent November 4 Results
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Pending
Arizona's 2nd District Ron Barber Pending
Georgia's 12th District John Barrow Pending
Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson Pending
North Carolina's 7th District Mike McIntyre Pending
Utah's 4th District Jim Matheson Pending
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall Pending
Nick Rahall

In September 2013, the NRCC issued a press release in response to Rahall, one of the organization's main targets in 2014, mistaking an umbrella for a lump of coal during a press conference. The press release stated:

"But Barack Obama, the EPA, and Nick Rahall aren’t waging a war on umbrellas – they are waging a war on coal. And yesterday, Bloomberg reported a new front opening in that war – the EPA is set to issue a rule that will completely halt the development of new coal-fueled plants by requiring they meet unachievable carbon standards."[15]

Media mentions

Across the country, media and experts publish stories that chronicle the incumbents that are in danger of losing their bid for re-election. Some of those incumbents mentioned include:

2012 Election summary

In a February 2013 article in the Washington Post, political scientists John Sides and Eric McGhee argued that redistricting was not solely responsible for Republicans maintaining control of the U.S. House in 2012. By comparing the 2012 election to prior elections, the authors maintanied that additional factors like incumbency and the increasingly concentrated nature of Democratic votes in urban areas contributed to the outcome.[16]

Margin of victory analysis

There were a total of 435 seats up for election in 2012. The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. Some general facts:

  • 30 races (6.9 percent) had a margin of victory of less than 5 percent. Of those 30 races, 18 were Democratic winners while 12 were Republican.
  • 33 races (7.6 percent) had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. Of those 33 races, 15 were Democratic winners while 18 were Republican.
  • 87 races (20 percent) had a margin of victory between 10 and 20 percent. Of those 87 races, 23 were Democratic winners while 64 were Republican.
  • 285 races (65.5 percent) had a margin of victory of greater than 20 percent. Of those 285 races, 145 were Democratic winners while 140 were Republican.
  • The fewest votes were in Texas' 29th District, with only 95,611 total votes. Incumbent Gene Green (D) faced two third-party candidates in the general election.
  • The most votes were in Montana, with 479,740 votes cast. Montana has a total population of 998,199 -- which is roughly 250,000 above the average district size in states without single districts. Because Montana has only one district for the whole state, its voters per district is higher than the rest of the country. The average size of each district is 709,000. The second-most votes cast came in Colorado's 2nd District, with 421,580 total votes.
  • The smallest margin of victory, was North Carolina's 7th District, where incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre defeated David Rouzer (R) by 0.2 percent (654 votes).
  • The largest margin of victory where both major parties fielded a general election candidate was in New York's 15th District, where incumbent Democrat Jose Serrano defeated Frank Della Valle (R) by 83%.
  • The average margin of victory of all congressional districts was 31.85%, meaning that on average the winner of each race received nearly twice as many votes as the top opponent. Average MOV for Democratic winners was 35.7%, while the average for Republicans was 28.6%.
  • The average number of votes cast per district was 281,917, yielding an average voter turnout of 39.76%.


See also

References